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Saturday, November 17, 2007

Latest IPCC Climate Change Report is the Most Sobering Yet.

The IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) today is releasing its most sobering analysis yet. Past civilizations have been successful but have made fundamental and monumental errors and disappeared. Read Ronald Wright’s “A Short History of Progress” for some examples and context on this phenomenon.

Today, with what we are doing to the planet, our nations and our species have the capacity to actually see the coming disaster we are creating for life on this planet through global warming. We have two perceptual advantages over the past doomed ancient civilizations. We know about those past failures so we can learn from their mistakes and not repeat a modern variation of the same.

We also have the capacity to foresee the pending consequences of our actions and we can adapt and change our ways. Easier said than done but it is clearer everyday that we cannot continue to define progress and development as we have.

The planet will survive. There is no guarantee that our species will continue to be part of its future, especially if we do not fundamentally change our wasteful and damaging ways.

Alberta's oil sands and energy industry will be at the centre of world attention as this focus on an attitude change by mankind gains momentum as a way to respond to climate change. ENGOs are already gearing up to make oil sands the "Baby Seals" issue of the next decade.


Albertan's want changes mand in how we can be more responsible and sustainable in the development of our energy sector and the oil sands in particular. There is an on-line survey being done by Cambridge Strategies Inc. and The Policy Channel to find out what Albertans want and value most about responsible and sustainable oil sands development.

Here is the link to Policy Channel to do the survey. It takes about 8 minutes to do and forces you to thnk and make hard choices and trade offs...just like real life. So stick with it and finish the survey...and leave us an email address if you want a report on the findings.

7 comments:

  1. Anonymous4:55 pm

    Another voice that seems to be against using a bitumen tax to control costs. Surprisingly, a member of the Royalty Review Panel...

    University of Alberta economics professor Andre Plourde said it's important to put the issues facing the oilsands industry into perspective, noting the 200,000-barrel decrease predicted in the report represents only a fraction of forecast production.

    "That's not a huge deal. But I think it's a signal that people are actually looking at this issue seriously," he said.

    The best way to alleviate cost pressures is to allow the market to "discipline itself," he said.

    "There will be an automatic cost dampening that occurs when all of a sudden people realize maybe it's not worth building (oilsands developments) right now."

    ReplyDelete
  2. Anonymous4:56 pm

    Another voice that seems to be against using a bitumen tax to control costs. Surprisingly, a member of the Royalty Review Panel...

    University of Alberta economics professor Andre Plourde said it's important to put the issues facing the oilsands industry into perspective, noting the 200,000-barrel decrease predicted in the report represents only a fraction of forecast production.

    "That's not a huge deal. But I think it's a signal that people are actually looking at this issue seriously," he said.

    The best way to alleviate cost pressures is to allow the market to "discipline itself," he said.

    "There will be an automatic cost dampening that occurs when all of a sudden people realize maybe it's not worth building (oilsands developments) right now."

    ReplyDelete
  3. Anonymous5:06 pm

    Rather than reading torqued reports from the IPCC, I suggest you read the latest report from the NEB entitled, Canada's Energy Future - Reference Case and Scenarios to 2030
    An Energy Market Assessment November 2007.

    ReplyDelete
  4. Thx Anon - I think I will read the NEB..do you have a link and what is the conclusion? Why is it important in this context? Can you give us more meat in the comment?

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  5. I just read the NEB report "Canada's Energy Future" at least the pPresentation document.

    Seems pretty rosy future to me overall. It assures us of ample energy supply out to 2030 and lots of fossil fuel use even in what the NEB calls the Triple E scenario that sees a rise in the use of alternatives.

    Alberta's wealth generation machine of the energy industry is projected to be fine overall but conventional oil and gas are sunset industries at least relative to oil sands. The emphasis is shifting and that is the marketplace at work again.

    NEB cuts an oil sand 2015 production projection slightly due to high porject costs and lbour shortages...that is just the marketplace working again.

    Not a great story on GHG emissions but heading in the right direction according to NEB projections.

    thx Anon for bringing it to our attention - it is good news but it needs to be considered in the context of the IPCC latest document and I don't think the NEB did that given the dates of the two reports.

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  6. Anonymous11:03 am

    Ken - do you truly believe that Ed Stemlach is going to react meaningfully to stem climate change, and if so: when?

    ReplyDelete
  7. I think Premier Stelmach is very serious about climate change. Expect an election campaign around greening our growth.

    The fact we have a group like Climate Change Central in Alberta is a great start...but just a start. Much more to do!

    We need to do some more serious work on GHG emissions - CO2 in particular...recent intensity emission level regulations are just a start. We will have to get to sustainable and responsible absolute GHG limits very soon.

    Political systems respond to pressure and crisis, real or imagined. I suggest we citizens put real pressure on our political system for it to engage in meaningful climate change policy before we are in crisis.

    We can see the crisis coming - time to get adapting...don't you think?

    ReplyDelete