tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31415271.post8618768777390585802..comments2023-09-22T06:22:50.820-06:00Comments on Ken Chapman: Can Stelmach Catch Morton?kenchapmanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11384045981190810115noreply@blogger.comBlogger6125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31415271.post-49130601220935838922006-11-29T23:38:00.000-07:002006-11-29T23:38:00.000-07:00You know (snicker) somehow the evil twin in me wou...You know (snicker) somehow the evil twin in me would love to see Morton win just to sit back and see Lukaszuk sweating in a corner wondering how he's going to get out of the "Alabama" quotation that seems to have slid all over the province and outside. His employment options are limited outside of government....gosh that really could be a delimma LOLAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31415271.post-30200782439308809612006-11-27T14:00:00.000-07:002006-11-27T14:00:00.000-07:00Interesting analysis, Ken. My thoughts are that b...Interesting analysis, Ken. My thoughts are that based on endorsements and vote leakage that Dinning stands at approximately 33%, Morton 32%, and Stelmach 28%. I believe that Stelmach has significant growth potential in northern Alberta and Edmonton. A lot depends on what Norris decides. My sense is that Norris cannot control all his supporters and that some will migrate to Dinning and some to Stelmach. If Norris makes a formal endorsement of Stelmach, I believe Stelmach picks up at least 50% of Norris supporters in Edmonton. The corporate base probably goes to Dinning. <br /><br />Then it all comes down to recruitment of new members. Ed needs to recruit a significant number of new voters to keep a strong third place, hope Morton attracts new members in Calgary, and stays out of the crossfire between Dinning and Morton. Ed is obviously second choice for both Dinning and Morton voters. If Dinning and Morton are held at around 35-36% on second ballot and Stelmach is within 5% of the leaders, he's got a very good shot at this thing.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31415271.post-75919438393552438172006-11-27T12:04:00.000-07:002006-11-27T12:04:00.000-07:00Good analysis, Ken.
I would hope that rural voter...Good analysis, Ken. <br />I would hope that rural voters have little in common with a university prof (Morton) or a big corporation executive (Dinning.) As a consequence, Edmonton and rural voters will turn en masse to Ed and bring him over the top. A repeat of 1992 where Klein's appeal to rural voters and Calgarians brought him to the front. This time it could be rurals and Edmontonians.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31415271.post-83404353752194577132006-11-27T09:52:00.000-07:002006-11-27T09:52:00.000-07:00Interesting analysis Ken.
You didn't account for ...Interesting analysis Ken.<br /><br />You didn't account for Hancock/Norris/Oberg voters who will stay home instead of casting their ballots for a second choice. I'm wondering how many of those candidates' supporters you think fall into that category?Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12511869356816000063noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31415271.post-20299619565056984622006-11-27T03:30:00.000-07:002006-11-27T03:30:00.000-07:00It seems like a rather large assumption that the c...It seems like a rather large assumption that the candidate's endorsement means much of anything in a system which is one member one vote. The candidate can really only guarantee his own vote. That aside i think your over estimating the ability of Hancock and Oberg to deliver their voters. I'm fairly sure in both cases that the voters will defend in percentages over 50% to Dinning and Morton respectively.Chrishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08628728347599057479noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31415271.post-56707462324194974922006-11-27T02:23:00.000-07:002006-11-27T02:23:00.000-07:00Just wondering Ken,
What do you think would happe...Just wondering Ken,<br /><br />What do you think would happen to the Tory party if Morton won? Do you think the caucus would rally behind him, or would enough bolt and form a new party, and perhaps if enough left, a new government? There must be quite a few MLA's who would lose their seats if Morton led them into an election, and they aren't going to like that notion too much. If Morton is the "anti-establishment" candidate, and he wins, one has got to figure that the "establishment" will put up one hell of a fight. My guess, and hope, is that a Morton government would not last very long.Andyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12175177945201851664noreply@blogger.com