Reboot Alberta

Showing posts with label Stelmach. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Stelmach. Show all posts

Thursday, February 01, 2018

What Do We Do Now?

The Political Paradox that is Alberta

The political paradox for Alberta is that, while we have had majority governments since 1971 we have had unstable governance since about 2004.  In that election year Ralph Klein kept a majority government but was loosing popular support.  He gave up 12 seats that election, mostly in the Edmonton region.

The End of King Ralph
The Progressive Conservative 2004 election message to citizens on the doorsteps was this would be Ralph's last election and he would be retiring.  After the election Ralph mussed about staying on as party leader.  The PC rank and file membership sent him a strong message in the end of March 2006 leadership review vote at the AGM.   Klein went from a typical 90% public and party approval rating to essentially a vote of non-confidence where he eked  out a slim majority in the leadership review vote.  Ralph was pushed out by the party members and a leadership campaign began.

One Person One Vote & Open PC Party Memberships 
By October 2006 eight candidates were in the running, including  (irony alert)  Lyle Oberg.  This Minister had been fired from Cabinet and suspended from the PC Caucus on March 22, before the dump Ralph party vote but ran for the leadership anyway.  Long-shot Ed Stelmach lead on preferential vote system by less that 500 votes but was the overwhelming second choice and beat the establishment candidate Jim Dinning by more than 12,000 votes in the end.

Stelmach
The three front runners, in perceived order of power, were Jim Dinning. Ted Morton and Ed Stelmach.  Dinning had support of 38 caucus member and three federal Conservatives.  Stelmach had 13 caucus member's on the first ballot and 6 more on the second.  Ted Morton, really a federal Reform Party and Canadian Alliance party member had one caucus member support him but the strong Reform Party grassroots machine to sell memberships.

Since May 27, 2011 the day Ed Stelmach resigned, and March 18, 2017, when Rachel Notley was elected, Alberta has had 6 Premiers.  All had majority governments but they hardly evidenced anything approximating certainty and stability in governance.

Redford
When Redford won the contest she, like Stelmach, came from behind and up the middle to win.  The contest was seen to be between an urban establishment candidate, Gary Mar, a rural establishment candidate, Doug Horner and, yet again, Ted Morton.  Mar held an impressive 41% of the first ballot vote.  Redford was a surprisingly in second place at 18.74% and Horner was a disappointing third with 14.55%.  Ted Morton was never really in this contest but garnered  11.73% for 4th place and was eliminated.

Redford was over 13,000 votes behind on the first ballot but won by a mere 1600 votes with overwhelming second ballot support.  She had only 1 caucus member supporting here on the first ballot and 5 more joined her for the second go round. whereas Gary Mar had 27 caucus member supporting him and 7 more came over on the second ballot.  Mar had been out of politics from 2007 representing the province in Washington D.C.  The rural establishment candidate Doug Horner had 14 caucus members behind him.

With such low caucus support and the influence of outsider "instant Tories" who bought PC memberships only to vote in the leadership, Redford had no clout as leader.  Her disappointing style and narcissistic style and overt sense of entitlement destroyed her leadership and she resigned on March 19, 2014 and gave up her seat in August 2014.

Prentice  & the Final Acts of the PC Passion Play
Dave Hancock was the unanimous caucus choice for interim leader until Jim Prentice won on September 6 2014 with the first ballot total of almost 18,000 votes while his combined opposition only garnered 5400 between them.  Prentice called an earl;y election for May 5, 2015, ignoring the PC's much vaunted fixed election law.  He lost badly to Rachel Notley and the NDP and resigned his seat even before this own riding results were counted.

Kenney Comes to  Alberta and the UCP is Born
For some inexplicable reason, Harper's political acolyte, Jason Kenney passed on he federal Conservative party leadership and moved in on the provincial Progressive Conservative Party leadership.  He was out to Unite the Right by purging the progressives from the PC party, taking it over as a conservative rump then consolidating with the Wildrose Party into a new "true" conservative party that he would lead to defeat the socialist NDP.  And he did with the political death of the PCAA, the Wildrose and the birth of the United Conservative Party.

On March 18, 2017 Kenney won the PCAA leadership on the first ballot with 1,113 supporters and 75.5% of the 1,476 total votes cast.  The other two candidates ran to keep the PCAA and rebuild it but to no avail.

In late July 2017 the PCAA and Wildrose membership held votes on forming the United Conservative Party.  IN both cases the decision was profound.

There was a turnout of 25,000 Wildrose members, representing 57% of total members  They overwhelming accepted the UCP option at 95.4%.  No one knows where the other 43% of Wildrose members stood on this because there was no comments from them at all.

The Progressive Conservative party had over 27,000 members participate and voted 95% in favour of the new united party.  That was a 55% turnout, again little if anything was heard from the 45% of PCAA members who stayed away from the unity vote.

A mere seven months later, on October 28, 2017, Kenney again won the UCP leadership on the first ballot with 61% leaving Brian Jean, the Wildrose candidate at 31.5, with the token progressive Doug Schweitzer at a mere 7.3% support.  Since then Messrs. Jean and Schweitzer have hardly been seen or heard of as Kenney purges the Brian Jean supporters from party operations, as he did with progressives in the PCAA.  He consolidates his power and turns the UCP into the KenneyCons.

Leadership Volatility Not Over Yet.
Every political Party in Alberta has a turnover in leadership.  Notley became NDP leader in October 2014 and lead them to majority government in May on 2015.

The Alberta Liberals elected David Khan as leader on June 5, 2017.  The Alberta Greens chose Romy Tittel as leader on November 4, 2017.

Greg Clark became Alberta Party leader in 2013 and was the longest serving party leader until he recently resigned.  He now leaves Notley as the longest serving provincial party leader at 3 years and 3 months at the time of writing.  The next rookie leader will be the Alberta Party who will take office on Feb 28th.

What Do We Do Now?
This brief  history Alberta's political leadership shows how we got to where we are today.  It illustrates just how volatile our political culture is and how the partisan fortunes and forces are shifting.  Notwithstanding perpetual majority governments political volatility is likely to continue into and through the next election.

Will it result in a minority government or will Albertans sustain the support for the NDP majority?  Are the unscientific political polls right and is the province about to shift to the ultra-right to a UCP majority?   Next post I will lay out some scenarios and speculate on what I think will happen...or at least could happen...and why.

Subscribe?
.  You might want to subscribe to this blog to get notice of new posts.  I will be doing a series of posts on Alberta politics beyond the horse race analysis. However I will do some analysis on the skills and policy positions of the three Alberta Party Candidates and share my views on what they bring to Alberta politics and the fortunes of the Alberta Party itself.

I will delve more into what the Alberta Aspiration should be and what we need to change so we can adapt and reach our potential.  I will explore the dangers of tired old-thinking mindset of those who say we should return to the antediluvian Alberta Advantage.  I will look at the risks associated with  the adversarial ideological left versus right bipolar politics we have today.  I will try to offer ideas and options and reasons for moderate progressive citizens to rethink their reasons and responsibilities  for political participation.  Stay tuned and come along for the ride.

Sunday, October 03, 2010

The Eyes of the World Are On Alberta's Oil Sands

Here is a link to yet another excellent Sunday Reader feature in the Edmonton Journal by Sheila Pratt on what it might take to get a reconciliation between industry the environmentalists and our governments on what is appropriate oil sands development approaches.  I was interviewed by Sheila for this piece and pleased to participate.

What we need now is an adult conversation in Alberta and by Albertans on how we want to see our oil sands resources developed.  The basis for that conversation should be framed from the findings of our resent research at Cambridge Strategies Inc. on the values Albertan's want to see guide and drive oil sands development was done in collaboration with OSRIN (Oil Sands Research and Information Network)

The citizens of Alberta need to create the place and space for that conversation to take place.  That can be in community meetings, church basements, coffee shops, service clubs, business groups, union halls, educational institutions, political gatherings and kitchen tables, just to name a few.  That conversation can begin where ever  one Albertan takes the time to asks another about what they want to see done to assure us that our natural resource is being responsibly developed so we can be proud of all the outcomes.

I am quoted in the Edmonton Journal story saying Albertans are starting to lose pride in the province.  I believe this to be true partly because our research shows only 31% of Albertans believe the oil sands resource in being managed well.  The Influentials in the province are at the forefront of this emerging sense of a loss of pride in being Albertan.  When asked if they tell others great things about living in Alberta only 51% of Influentials agreed or strongly agreed and only 45% of them would strongly recommend living in Alberta to a friend.

UPDATE:  REX MURPHY ASKS WHY AREN'T WE PROUD OF THE OIL SANDS?  This industry also needs a human face and not just the nice folks who work in the industry that populate the full page colour newspaper ads the industry is wasting money on - as if that would persuade us of authenticity, trustworthiness and integrity

The reason the opinions of Influentials are so important is because they are trend setters and opinion leaders.  These are the people the rest of the population relies on to help form our own thoughts on issues, ideas and many of the decisions we make in our lives.  Some have suggested what Influentials think today is what the general population will be thinking in 12 to 18 months from now.

That is why government and industry better start a more meaningful, serious and adult conversation with Albertans about what we want to see happening with the development of our resource.  After all it is Albertans who own the oil sands.  Industry is a mere tenant that depends on public confidence to gain and sustain a social license to operate their businesses be it forests, oil and gas or oil sands.

As for government their equivalent of a social license it to be seen worthy of the citizen's consent to govern.  Right now all of the political parties and their leaders in are seen to be less than adequate to the task of effectively managing the growth of Alberta.  When Albertans were asked who did they think was best able to responsibly manage Alberta's growth the results were astonishing.  Premier Ed Stelmach was the choice of 23%, Danielle Smith garnered 19%, David Swann had 9% and Brian Mason only 4%.  None of the Above was the assessment of 45% of the 1032 Albertans who were in the random survey done last May.

Change is in the air and alternatives are needed based on this survey result. If you want a progressive political culture in the Next Alberta register now for RebootAlberta 3.0 at www.rebootalberta.org

Tuesday, September 07, 2010

Why Did Our Government Avoid Announcing the Premier-Pelosi Meeting?

This week should be a game changing opportunity for re-framing the oil sands narrative in the minds of some of the most powerful political personalities in the United States of America.  The meeting this Thursday with Nancy Pelosi the Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives, arguably the most powerful woman in America, could be and should be a game changer for Alberta and our oil sands to be understood in a broader and deeper context than merely "dirty oil"

The credible case for oil sands cannot be made by pushing the investment agenda or the jobs advantages.  There is so much more to the potential than those concerns, vital as they are.  There is a need to have an integrated conversation about the oil sands in terms of environmental elements of land, water and air impacts.  There is a need to talk about health and habitat implications and mitigation.  There is a need to talk about science and technology advances and its potential elements for a cleaner future for oil sands development.

There is a need to do all of this to dispel the mythology of dirty oil but not in the context of it not being so bad when you consider it in comparison with the British Petroleum Gulf of Mexico disaster.  Being better apple in a bad barrel is not good enough for Albertans.  We Albertans want to be proud of the oil sands as well as being able to prosper from them.  Being the best of a bad lot is not good enough.

That said I do feel there is a need to compare the so-called "dirty oil" from the Alberta oil sands with the "blood oil" from the other US sources.  Considering the Presidential level false pretense of weapons of mass destruction to justify an invasion of Iraq and the waste and blood that deception created I wonder is we don't need a broader definition of "dirty oil."  The American government is guilty of creating really dirty oil that involves supporting war, terror, death and corruption, both aboard and domestically..  I hope someone is prepared to point that out to Speaker Pelosi this week.  We need to frame the responsible development of the oil sands as a way out of that political, moral and ethical quagmire for the Americans.

The Iraq war was really about deceit, political hubris and securing an oil supply for the United States.  It was not about freedom and democracy for Iraqi citizens as the ultra conservative rhetoric out of the White House would want us to believe.  The George Bush political pantomime of the "Mission Accomplished" performance n the on the deck of an aircraft carrier shows the depth of the political posturing that regime was prepared to resort to in order to sustain its hold on power.  Anyone see a parallel to the current Harper regime in Canada?

The terrorism fostered by the funding of extremist religious fundamentalist enabled by the Bush-Regime friendly royal family of Saudi Arabia is another aspect of "dirty oil" to my mind.  Then look at the social costs in civilian deaths and the political corruption in Venezuela and you can add more granularity to the picture of "dirty oil."  There are many more examples of blood oil as dirty oil in the world that are as least partly due to past American foreign and energy policies.  

None of this justifies Albertans being complacent about insisting that the oil sands be developed in a much more environmentally and socially responsible way.  But to lecture Alberta about our "dirty oil" and to allow the BP blowout to happen and to invade and support corrupt regimes around the globe in exchange for domestic fossil fuel supply is hypercritical in the extreme.

The opportunity to provide a more integrated and honest narrative about the potential of the oil sands as an energy resources to the American market has to be clearly and persuasively presented.  If anyone making these points needs notes to make these points one should wonder if they are not sufficiently akin and aligned with the core values of Albertans around our oil sand development.

The point is to be realistic about our challenges in responsible oil sands development.  Pelosi has to hear and the Premier has to make the point that the oil sands are a viable transitional energy alternative that can relieve the human costs of corruption, death and terror resulting from these other truly dirty oil situations the American people find themselves supporting..

This does not let Albertans off the ownership hook to assure the world we can develop this enormously important resource in a responsible and sustainable way with wisdom and integrity.  It is significant that this meeting with Speaker Pelosi is happening in Ottawa with the Premiers of Alberta and Saskatchewan plus key Influentials invited too, like Marlo Raynolds of the highly respected Pembina Institute. (BTW Marlo is a Friday night presenter along with me at RebootAlberta 3.0 in Edmonton Nov 5-6) There will be a  balance of perspectives on the oil sands available to Speaker Pelosi for sure and it is a credit to her that balance is happening.

It is more than a little disturbing to note that this meeting with Pelosi was not announced by Premier Stelmach's office.  As Graham Thomson notes in his recent column, the Alberta public would not have known about it likely until after the fact if not for the fact others were invited and announced they were going.

This lack of public disclosure that our Premier is attending this meeting looks to me like a lapse of accountability and transparency by our government - and it is disturbing.  We Albertans own the oil sands.  We have a right to know what is going on in relation to them  What is our government doing in meeting the stewardship responsibility of our resources, especially the controversial oil sands, is our public business.

The elected representatives are not the absolute rulers over the development of our oil sands.  They are merely our proxy holders as owners.  They are elected to represent our best interests.  They owe us a duty to prove to us that they are serving those ends.  They should be conducting themselves in the service of our best interests openly and honestly and with integrity.   Citizens of Alberta have to start acting like owners of their natural resources and not merely employees for the industry tenants.   The industry tenants need to earn our respect to sustain any social licenses to exploit our natural resources for the benefit of shareholders and citizens.  Our governments need to learn some humility as servant leaders and be dissuaded from assuming they are entitled to govern without being accountable, transparent and honest with the voter.

To not disclose this meeting as part of the regular release of the weekly schedule of the Premier is an indication of a personal and institutional character flaw.  It is not good enough and further erodes the public confidence in the capacity and truthfulness of this government.

There are times when confidentiality is required.  On those occasions we owners still need to know why it is required and be able to trust the integrity of those entrusted to act on our behalf in such confidential circumstances. That is not the case now in terms of being informed as to why s discussion must be confidential  or can we trust the integrity and accountability of our representatives who are involved in such confidential discussions.

Any of secret meetings held behind closed doors by our government proxy holders are inevitably with self-serving parties.  That is why they are a serious source of citizen suspicion.  There is  that there is more back room self-interested collusion going and that is totally inappropriate.  There is plenty of evidence that the current government of Alberta has at best lost the benefit of the doubt that they are to be trusted and believed.  To not disclose the Premier-Pelosi meeting unnecessarily adds to the suspicion and distrust.

Democracy is founded on trust and confidence of the citizenry towards those to whom we delegate authority over us to make decisions on our behalf as informed engaged voters in meaningful elections. I know that is a fiction in Alberta and too many other dissolving democracies.  The Pelosi meeting was a perfect opportunity for our government to show they are worthy of our trust and to justify our confidence in dealing on our behalf with the American mis-perceptions about "dirty oil."

The way this high-level policy event has been handled so far shows that the default of the powers that bee is towards political posturing and secrecy.  That is trumping the greater duty to govern with a sense of stewardship and sustainability with integrity, accountability, honesty and transparency.  Instead they have just reinforced our worst suspicions about how poorly we are governed instead of redeeming themselves by a gesture towards restoring public trust and confidence. I don't hold any hope that the Wildrose Alliance Party would be any better if not worse given their secretive and significant financial reliance on the Calgary based energy sector now.

As thoughtful and responsible Albertans we have to get past our defeatist attitude and insist upon or create another viable political alternative.  To stay in a torpor means the future choices will be between an exclusively market driven govern philosophy or a reactionary social conservative option.  Both are too restrictive to meet our potential and responsibility to aspire be more than the best  place in the world to becoming the best place for the world. That is the preferred future for the Alberta I want to achieve.

If you want a progressive political culture in the Next Alberta register now for RebootAlberta 3.0 at www.rebootalberta.org

Wednesday, August 04, 2010

What Do Albertans Expect as Owners of the Oil Sands?

There is a PR and spin battle going on for the hearts and minds of the public over oil sands.  The battle is between the Government of Alberta the oil sands industry and some segments of the ENGOs (Environmental Non-government Organizations.)

The prime targets are Albertans, Canadians, businesses outside of Alberta who benefit from oil sand development and key American politicians who are fixated on a “dirty oil” message around the oil sands. The tactics being used to various degrees by all contestants are paid advertising and PR spin. 

We see the ENGO tactic of Corporate Ethics International paying for bill board advertising in a four select US cities calling for a “Rethink” of traveling to Alberta due to our so-called “dirty oil.”  There were some significant factual errors about the size of oil sands mining operation in the Corporate Ethics messages. It became a game of “he said - she said” generating more heat than light about the reality of the oil sands.

But there are other media motivated manoeuvres being employed by ENGOs.   Just yesterday Greenpeace performed another one of its publicity stunt and will get a bunch of media coverage as a result.  They hung a banner from the iconic Calgary Tower and message was “Separate Oil and State.”  Two protester wearing Premier Stelmach and Prime Minister Harper facemasks were chained to oil barrels with “Dirty Oil” written on them.  Eight of these Greenpeace protesters were arrested and that will give the story some legs in the media.

We see the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers running magazine and television ads using real people involved in oil sands technology, research and reclamation in an attempt to get an authentic human connection to the industry efforts to justify their social license to operate.

The Stelmach government is launching another quarter million dollar newspaper advertising push to “tell the world about the oil sands.”  Early indications are these ads are aimed at Albertans and Canadians and if that is the case that is hardly “telling the world.”  The recent rejection of a Letter to the Editor by Premier Stelmach to a Washington DC newspaper resulted in the purchase of a half page ad in that paper to run the letter as a way to get the message out to key US politicians.  Last time the Alberta government launched a paid advertising campaign on the oil sands it earmarked $25 million dollars glossy advertisements.  There was also some misleading in the content and context discovered in the campaign and it was quietly abandoned.

That is all by way of background for what I really want to talk.  If you want to connect with the hearts and minds of the public you should try to find out want is on their minds and in their hearts first.  Then you should talk to the public about oil sands matters that concern them.  There is a need for a conversation between government and industry about the responsible and sustainable development of the oil sands.  After all it is Albertan’s who own the oil sands.  

But are paid advertising campaigns anything close to a “conversation” with the public.  The paid advertising approach is often seen as self-serving one-way messages to the public.   There is a place for paid advertising in communications.  But in complex matters like oil sands development advertising alone is no substitute for substantial, authentic, accurate, clear and resonant conversations with the public.

So what is it about oil sands development that the Alberta public is concerned about?  What information do they want?  What do they believe ought to be the values used by decision makers as their oil sands are being developed?  How confident are they in the decision makers in government and industry about oil sands development?  At Cambridge Strategies we have designed and deployed a random sample survey with 1032 Albertans to get at what is on their minds and in their hearts about oil sands development. 

I will be doing more blog posts on this in the future but for now I want to delve a bit deeper into a survey finding that was reported in the Edmonton Journal today under the headline “Many Albertans Onside with Gov’t Handling of the Oilsands.”  It is very difficult to take a statistic and isolate it from the larger context and write a meaningful headline that also grabs attention.  So I will temper my criticism because while the headline is accurate I am not sure it really captures all the implications and essence of the findings.  That requires a bit more reflection and interpretation. 

There were some survey questions that were attitudinal and not part of the value choice questions in the conjoint study.  So they are more like opinion polling questions and relate to a moment in time only.  The value choice conjoint questions on what Albertans believe should guide and drive policy decisions on oil sands development are a more reliable source of what people want and expect over time for oil sands development.
Here is a more comprehensive look at how “onside” Albertans are with the government handling of the oil sands.  

The question asked was:  “The Alberta government is responsibly managing the oilsands.”  The response was:
  •                 Completely Agree                                           6%         
  •                 Agree                                                            25%
  •                 Slightly Agree                                                 34%
  •                 Slightly Disagree                                             17%
  •                 Disagree                                                         13%
  •                 Completely Disagree                                         5%
While there are more Albertans who agree (31%) than disagree (18%) with how their government is managing the oil sands there is a more interesting and significant factor in this answer.  Look at the mushy middle opinion.  Over half of Albertans slightly agree or slightly disagree with this statement.  These people are fluid and more undecided in their opinions.  If they move in one direction or another, that will have enormous impact on our attitudes as owners of the oilsands.  It will have consequences for politics, elections and social licenses for industry to operate in the oil sands – which is a public property.

What is it that would make Albertans in the middle group move one direction or another?  If the hearts and minds of 51% of Albertans are up for grabs what would influence them to shift one way or another about how they feel their government is doing in terms of responsible management of the oil sands.  This is not a minor issue because the survey also found that 89% of Albertans believe the oil sands are either Extremely Important (47%) or Very Important (42%) to Alberta’s prosperity.

Another serious influence on this question is how much confidence Albertans currently have in the political leaders and parties who must make public policy about what constitutes responsible and sustainable oil sands development.  That result is also in the Edmonton Journal story but it needs to be more directly related to the first question.  Again this must be looked at in terms or a possible trend. 

The question was: “Who do you trust the most to responsibly manage Alberta’s growth.”  Premier Ed Stelmach of the Progressive Conservative Party was at 23%, Danielle Smith of the Wildrose Alliance was 19%.  David Swann of the Liberals was 9% and Brian Mason of the NDP came in at 4%.  The largest segment was None of the Above at 45%.   This indicates some potential for change in Alberta politics but there is not viable political alternative in the minds of most Albertans these days.

There is great deal more opinion related results in the survey and they are published at the Edmonton Journal Notebook Blog too.  It is important to review them all and consider the implications as whole and not just individual questions.

                 

Monday, July 19, 2010

When and What Will the Next Alberta Election Be About?

I get a strange feeling the Stelmach government is easing into the election prep stage known as The Red Zone. That is where not much happens in governance because they don’t want to make political mistakes. With the rise of the “pungent and pink” Wildrose the current government, if not in the Red Zone, it is definitely concerned about the Wildrose “pink zone” of election readiness.


I don’t think we will have a snap election in Alberta but I would not count on Stelmach waiting until March 2012 as stated earlier. Alberta is mindful of many external forces influencing its election timing. For example there is potential for a federal election late this fall or next spring. It may happen over the next budget or, depending if Harper thinks he can get a majority, he will engineer his own defeat. The midterm US elections will be watched carefully by the Stelmach government for policy trends that impact energy policy and oil sands development.

Then there are domestic concerns about election timing. The Stelmach government had an approval rating of 12% in a recent survey of Albertans. The economy is apparently recovering but is it due to the billions of provincial and federal government stimulus money or is it authentic economic growth at play? Are we into a slow and steady economic turn around or a double dip recession? Too early to tell yet and economist are pointing in every direction, as usual.

Then we have the volatility of politics to consider too. There is change in the air in Alberta these days. And what form that will take is still unclear. Albertan’s self –image from environmental pressures and negative PR is eating away at our pride of place, our self-confidence and our self-esteem. Albertans are clear that oil sands are critically important to our future prosperity. But they are now questioning themselves and their government about how well this resource is being developed and managed.

The lack of faith in the leadership in any of the current political parties is another measure of volatility. We recently asked a random sample of over 1000 Albertans which political leader they trusted most to manage the growth in the Alberta economy. The results brought a sharp focus on the general disaffection Albertans have with the current crop of political leaders. Only 4% picked the NDP’s Brian Mason. Some 9% trusted Liberal leader David Swann. As for The Wildrose and Danielle Smith only 19% would put their management trust in her. Premier Ed Stelmach of the PCs garnered a scant 23% who said they trusted him the most to manage Alberta’s growth. Here is the kicker – 45% of us said we mostly trusted none of them to manage the growth of the Alberta economy. That survey outcome speaks to potential for serious political change but begs the question – change to what alternative?

Now add in the right-wing conservative political culture war that is raging in Alberta between Progressive Conservatives and the Wildrose Alliance Party. With Ted Morton’s move to Minister of Finance and Enterprise he is doing the next budget for the spring of 2011. We can expect his ideological fingerprints will to be all over the economic and fiscal policy direction of Alberta by next year. Kevin Libin has a very insightful and telling column in a recent edition of the National Post on the Morton factor in Alberta politics and policy directions. I recommend you read it.

If Kevin is right in his observations about Minister Morton, and my comments he quotes about Minister Morton from 2006 are still valid (and Morton himself says they are) then we have another fly-in-the-ointment political dynamic that will influence the election timing.

What if the PCs become less progressive and more Morton-like conservative between now and the next election? What if the defacto election battle on the right is between the Sorcerer Morton and Smith, his former Apprentice from the Calgary School? Where does that leave Stelmach? Where do progressives go given the current anemic political alternatives they are being offered? What does the next Alberta look like if only the radical right and reactionary left show up to vote?

We need a viable progressive political alternative in Alberta. The current situation is untenable for any thoughtful Albertan who sees a positive balanced role for responsible, accountable, open and honest government. Reboot Alberta is not a political party but it is a way to influence and shape any new or existing political party. We need to show the powers that be and any that want to be that they must move towards a more inclusive and effective approach to a more contemporary political culture that reflects the next Alberta instead of trying to perfect the past.

Efforts are afoot for staging Reboot 3.0 in late October to look at a more activist approach to bring the progressive agenda and voice back to Alberta politics. Stay tuned for more information here and to join the Reboot Alberta citizen's movement go to http://www.rebootalberta.org/

Wednesday, June 23, 2010

Stelmach Government Honours Gary McPherson With Leadership Scholarships.

Congratulations to Premier Stelmach for a fitting tribute to the life of Gary McPherson. A post-secondary student leadership scholarship throughout Alberta is brilliant.  If anyone was a role model for citizenship it was the inspiring life and actions of Gary McPherson.

Here is the link for more details on the scholarship program in Gary's honour.

Thursday, June 03, 2010

Grizzly Bears Declared an Endangered Species in Alberta

The province of Alberta has finally made this important decision to designate grizzly bears as an endangered species in our province.

This is a very important policy step and one that is very aligned with the values of Albertans.  We at Cambridge Strategies have done a number of conjoint studies on forestry and oil sands development issues dating back to 2005.  In every case a significant value driver in the hearts and minds of Albertans has been habitat protection.

The industries like forestry, conventional oil and gas and oil sands are all becoming aware, and sometimes painfully aware, that their social license to continue to operate as our tenants on the lands owned by Albertans requires a higher degree of responsible stewardship than in the past.  Albertans are very aware of the need for a long term view when it comes to dealing with both renewable resources like forestry and non-renewable resource like oil, gas and oil sands. 

Forestry and oil sands developers do take a long term view of their responsibilities be it reforestation or land reclamation in the case of oil sands based disturbances.  I like the Alberta forest operators and believe they by and large have the right corporate values to justify their social licence to operate in our forests.  It was not always that way but with effective pressure from environmentalists and public opinion, they have seen the light.  Now the forestry sector is reformed and worthy of our respect as our tenants.  Unfortunately due to mountain pine beetle, climate change and market volatility, they are having a tough time making it with the conventional business model.

The conventional oil and gas sector also has a duty to reclaim lands from abandoned well sites, seismic lines and roadways but they are all too often less than diligent in fulfilling these duties.  They get enormous subsidies and royalty relief but still don't seem to understand that they are in danger of losing any modicum of public confidence in their integrity as respected operators entitled to responsibly exploit Alberta's natural resources.  As we see reduced market demands coming, unless the conventional energy sector starts to see the writing on the wall they will be the first to be pressured out of business by public opinion.

The move by the government of Alberta to designate grizzlies as endangered has been a longtime coming but it is hopefully not too late to protect this animal.  Biodiversity and habitat protection are highly ranked and core values for Albertans. Congratulations to the Stelmach government for making this move and with luck they will move to force industry for some expanded and enhanced land reclamation to provide a better habitat so these bears can thrive again.

Sunday, May 30, 2010

What Will Albertans Get From Yet Another Royalty Rollback?

I wanted to do a blog post today on the latest retreat from responsible royalty rates by the Stelmach government. My research made me realize that Don Braid of the Calgary Herald more than captures my response.

The short term thinking of generating activity by single minded policy approaches is hindering integrated thoughtful policy approaches.  We know from our research and the early findings of The Big Listen by the Alberta Party that Albertans want a public policy approach that has a longer term view. We can't ignore the ecological and social impacts of shallow, simple-minded and myopic approaches to competitiveness that is exemplified by a constant foregoing of rents from non-renewable resources. 

These resource royalties rents are one time chances to grasp the intergenerational and birthright benefits of our kids and their kids.  We are being told our government can't afford to pay teachers according to the contracts we negotiated with them but we can walk away from another $1.5B of royalties because why?  More drilling activity in more marginal areas?  How much more have the companies who are doing this more drilling committed to do as a result of the royalty give-away?  Are there any guarantees from them in this deal?  What about a condition of a rollback that these companies first clean up and reclaim some of the old wellsites, roads and seismic lines they no longer need so wildlife can return to these areas?

We are not well governed and the Wildrose would be worse. They appear to be already owned and controlled by the conventional energy sector.  These guys are so cloaked in anonymity that they will not even disclose their contributions to the leader of that party.  We need a viable political alternative in Alberta that has Integrity, is Honest with us, truly Accountable, actually Transparent and who sees Stewardship of public assets and resources in the greater public of all Albertans interest as its job.  

Wednesday, May 12, 2010

The Alberta Health Superboard Should Go!

I am heading into a meeting this afternoon on Foresight this. Foresight is not about making prediction like a futurist but it is about extrapolating possibilities based on evidence, experience, insight and a bit of intuition.


That said here is my non-prediction anyway. I believe the Alberta Health Services Super Board will be gonzo sometime this summer. ..and it should be. The government has approved a five year spending envelope for healthcare in the last budget and covered off the deficits of the Superboard at the same time.

With assured healthcare funding for five years, I assume they are working a five year business plan for health care delivery in Alberta as well. With Registered Nurses in contract negotiations now and the Physicians into negotiations next year, my guess is the government will take back the duty of delivering health care in Alberta. Then who needs a Superboard?

The Klein era governance model was ostensibly built on regional advisory boards of local citizens who were presumed to be best able to know, assess and advise Ministers and government on local issues. In reality that policy proved to be more fiction than fact, especially in the execution and application. I know this firsthand from some of the work I do.

There is a full report done by the Province of Alberta on governance and conflict of interest around provincial government agencies, boards and commissions. The process was lead by Allan Tupper (formerly of the U of A and now at UBC) many years ago. The implementation of the report’s recommendations is now in the care of a senior provincial bureaucrat in Executive Council office. So far as I can see not much has been done about the recommendations. My guess this is mostly due to political inertia and a lack of political will.

The regional board system was implemented in health, childrens’ services, persons with developmental disabilities and perhaps other departments too. It has all turned out to be just another level of expensive governance without authority, expertise or an informed knowledge base to be very effective. They ended up being buffers to protect Ministers from having to deal with the rabble commonly known as citizens. Bottom line we have good people trying to do s job in a bad governance system and no political or administrative intent to change the dynamic.

These board members do not effectively connect with the local population or deal openly with local issues. My evidence and experiences suggest these regional advisory boards did not effectively connect with the government or the Ministers either. I had a conversation one such Minister who appointed well-meaning citizens these regional advisory boards. I asked if any of the appointed board members had ever given direct advice to that Minister. The answer was no. By the look on the Minister’s face in response to the question, I know a light bulb had just been turned. Perhaps that Minister had just realized why there were so many problems in the field that the Minister was chronically unaware.

It is in this context why I think the AHS Superboard will be extinct in a few months. The healthcare system started on this regionalization kick with 17 of them. That soon became 9 and one day, overnight and out of the blue, those were collapsed into one Superboard. The cynic in me says the Minister of the day wanted to fix an obvious regional leadership problem they had in the Calgary regional health board. The government did not want to look like they were picking on Calgary for political reasons, so they decided to dissolve all the regional health authorities into one. No advanced warning, no consultation, no review of the implications or consequences…and no thoughtful plan of implementation. It was just raw politics that were at work in that decision.

The former Minister of Health has since been shuffled and a new much more capable Minister is in place. A new Deputy Minister is in charge and he has the ear and confidence of the Premier. The government is back making the serious policy and implementation decisions about health care. The new leadership in the Department and Ministry of Health and Wellness has been reversing the mistakes of the former Minister and has taken almost all of the power away from the Superboard.

The Superboard and its administration were still (are still?) in the competitive slash and burn damn the torpedoes mindset of the former Minister. They failed refused or neglected to see there was a new Sheriff in town. As a result many the programs and initiatives the Superboard was implementing were stopped, stifled or reversed by the new Minister. The confusion as to roles, responsibilities and relationships between the Superboard, the Ministry and the department was enormous but it is being resolved – effectively, appropriately and dramatically from my point of view.

The political reality is the Minister and the Premier wears the good, bad and ugly politics of healthcare policy. Not the faceless members of the Superboard. The new Minister and Deputy Minister know this and, to their credit, they have taken back the control of the healthcare system into government. They are meeting people, professions and stakeholders to get a serious and in depth sense of what is going on in the field.

They are making positive changes, adding money and allowing for longer planning time frames. And they are burying the idea that private sector marketplace models based of competition will make the public healthcare system stronger and more accountable. The fact that the province has to spend $2.8 million of taxpayer dollars just to bailout a Calgary based private surgical centre from bankruptcy shows the folly of the radical right wing healthcare policy of past and possible future political regimes in the province…if the Wildrose replaces the Stelmach conservatives next election.

So while the governmet is on the job of discarding the AHS Superboard, I strongly suggest they do the same thing and dump all the regional buffer boards including in Childrens’ Services and Persons with Developmental Disabilities (PDD). They are doing more harm than good when it comes to open, transparent and accountable governance. They are not effectively governing or connecting community to government or service providers. They are political buffers for politicians – pure and simple.

Good governance is always good politics. The opposite is hardly ever true.

Monday, March 29, 2010

Are Alberta's Politics Moving Past "Interesting" into Dangerous?

There is more and mounting evidence that regular Alberta citizens have to re-engage in the policy discussions and the political culture of our times and take back control of our democracy. The volatility on Alberta politics is increasing with recent developments. Things change pretty quickly in politics but until recently Alberta was the lethargic exception.

THE ACCIDENTAL PREMIER?
Premier Stelmach looked to some like he was the “accidental Premier” when he surprised everyone and won the Progressive Conservative Party leadership in 2006. He shocked us again when he won the election with a strong majority government when the mood in the province was for change. He then got a safe but not resounding endorsement for his leadership last November from the delegates at the PC Party AGM – and he promised change to respond to the undercurrents of anxiety in the PC and file from his weak public support being shown in the polls.

CHANGE BUT TOO LITTLE TOO LATE?
A quick shuffle on the Budget from the promised slash and burn approach to a more measured long term but big deficit budget to an even less significant Cabinet Shuffle and the promise of serious change went unfulfilled in the Party and public mind. But change happened anyway in the rise of the Wildrose Alliance Party’s narrow win of Calgary Glenmore’s by-election. Things got more volatile with the election of Danielle Smith as WAP leader. Then the biggie…the floor crossing of two PC MLAs, including a former Cabinet Minister, to the Wildrose Alliance.

There were rumours of another 8-10 PC MLAs ready to jump to the Wildrose but the Cabinet Shuffle Ascension of Ted Morton into the Finance and Enterprise portfolio seems to have at least delayed any more mutiny for now.

POLITICAL PARTIES ARE FRAGILE NOW TOO.
The political volatility is now showing up in the political party ranks. The Democratic Reform Movement efforts by some in the Liberal and NDP ranks pushing for some collaboration to stop vote splitting on the centre left is on-going. There is grumbling and anxiety in the Liberal caucus and the rank and file membership too. The NDP is small but the impact and influence of the labour movement on policy and internal politics is always on-going. The Green party imploded due to internal dissention and the Wildrose Alliance is going through senior level staff changes, as have the NDP and the PCs. The Wildrose is heading into an AGM in June that promises to be interesting and volatile too. The badly beaten but unbowed Social Conservatives in the WAP are seeking more policy power in the party notwithstanding, and perhaps because of how badly Smith beat them in the leadership race.

And now we have the next stage of political party volatility, the March 23 letter from the PC Party Highwood Constituency to the Premier and the Party President saying, amongst other things, they expect the Alberta electorate to show “no mercy…on Election Day.” OK so the locals are also ticked that their MLA was dumped from Cabinet and disrespectfully at that. But family members in the PC Party, or other parties, don’t usually send nasty complaint letters to the “Father” and the copy all the rest of the family. OUCH. But there is much more detail and opinions about specific complaints in the Highwood PC Constituency Board letter.

Full disclosure, last December 17th I announced that I would not be renewing my long held membership in the PC Party of Alberta and did a blog post on my reasons. Since then an amazing number of PC Party members said they would not stay active in the party either.

ALBERTANS HAVE TO TAKE CITIZENSHIP SERIOUSLY AGAIN
Our political institutions were designed for a time over a century old and they have not kept up to changes in culture, communications and complexity of the current and emerging world. I think they are serving to undermine citizen-based democracy which is itself an old but at least an evolving institution. Democracy has evolved or more to the point, democracy had “devolved” so now have 60% of eligible voters who see politics as so ugly and distant form them and their lives that can’t be bothered to vote in Alberta.

Citizens are not exercising their rights to choose representatives and grant their consent to be governed in a representative democracy at election time. Citizens are now abdicating their responsibility to be stewards of the common good by letting radical, reactionary and often fundamentalist fringe elements take over the power in declining political parties. Are any of us ready for the emergence of the Alberta equivalence of the Tea Party movement? If the social conservatives, lead by Ted Morton, don’t have their way with the Stelmach government will they bolt to the Wildrose at the strategic time in anticipation of the next election? What if the disgruntled social conservatives can’t take control the power structure of the Wildrose Alliance? I can see them all getting restless and deciding to split off and start reflect the radical and reactionary Republican sponsored Tea Party movement we see in the States now.

Will the renewal and refocus of the Alberta Party get some money, manpower and motivation to rise to the occasion and start to offer a philosophically progressive alternative in time?  Stating from a stand still may begin to make the Alberta Party look pretty good if all the conventional parties continue to be going in reverse.  That is no solution to the real problems we face with our democratic and political deficits in Alberta these days.  A more rational and responsible and comprehensive approach to reforming the Alberta poliltical culture must be taken  by someone and very soon.

REBOOT ALBERTA MAY HAVE TO STEP UP ITS GAME.
All this makes me reflect on just shows important the Reboot Alberta progressive citizen’s movement is going to be to the future of Alberta’s democracy. I guess we will have to pick up the pace, get focused and start getting activist and into some serious deliberative and deliberate democratic reforms and right away. There is a yearning for change by progressive Albertans but change to what for what, how and when are the open questions that need some serous attention.  We konw some of those answers form the recent survey done on progressive values of Albertans.  That may be the basis for us to start to change things in Alberta's politics an organized and effective fashion.

Thursday, February 11, 2010

What Are the Politics Behind the Stelmach Budget

The fiscal narrative around the Alberta budget has been written and yes the results were very different than what was projected in the trial balloons the Stelmach floated in the lead up. The potential return to the massive versus brutal cuts of the early 90s was floated as a possible fiscal reaction by the Stelmach government to cover an extrapolated $2B revenue shortfall. This political messaging was done as part of its continuing quest of the Stelmach government to out flank the Wildrose Alliance Party on the right. But it never materialized in the Budget, much to the astonishment of almost every Albertan. In fact what happened is Premier Stelmach reasserted his own progressive personality.  He applied some sound Keynesian fiscal principles in response to the recession and the expressed priorities of Albertans over health and education concerns.


I will deal with the politics behind this Budget in this blog post. The Budget numbers are important but what motivates the government politically when it builds a Budget is just as important. It all adds to the volatile political culture in Alberta these days. The new Budget represents a positive shift in the attitude and approach of the Stelmach government. Stelmach has shown with this Budget that he is no longer trying to emulate the Wildrose Alliance Party. Stelmach is actually isolating the WAP, putting it out there all by itself on the extreme right of the political spectrum.

The WAP has been controlling the political and media agenda in the province for months now. Stelmach has been chasing them from behind thinking he had to be more right wing and reactionary than the WAP to win the confidence of Albertans. The Stelmach government signaled with this Budget that they are not going to let that happen anymore. Stelmach has given a strong indication that he is prepared to pursue a balance between fiscal prudence in response to the reality of the recession and at the same time ensuring that social services are sustained while bolstering health and preserving education supports. The use of the Stability Fund monies to do this is the exact right move at the right time and for the right reasons. That is why the fund was set up in the first place and it is time to use the money.

There is still a blind spot in the Stelmach government over responsible revenue policy. The most obvious shortcoming is the lack of serious attention to charging reasonable royalty rates with a long term view instead of pandering to the unfounded threats of conventional oil and gas sectors. The return of commodity prices and the return of oilsands projects show that energy development is shifting away from the conventional business as it should.

Here is my take on what happened politically over the last few months as the Stelmach government found its way to the recent Budget.

THE WAP FACTOR:

The political strategy for Stelmach for months now has been to try and outflank the Wildrose on the right. The by-election loss, with their candidate coming in third in the former Deputy Premier’s riding, spooked the Stelmach brain trust. , The acceptance of the myth that the royalty review somehow caused the decline of drilling activity, while ignoring the collapse of commodity prices and new easier energy plays in Saskatchewan and northeastern BC, added to the anxiety. All this saw the Stelmach government move beyond appeasement of the conventional energy business into capitulation to their threats and demands. They walked away from rational decision-making about reasonable royalties five times since they accepted the Royalty review recommendations. With the so called “competitiveness review” to be released “in draft” in March they are apparently poised to capitulate again.

The rise of the “smart, intelligent and media savvy” Danielle Smith and her convincing win of the leadership of the WAP (she won 75% of the votes) made life even worse for “Unsteady-Eddie.” That was only one of the mocking taunts that the good old-boys in the conventional energy sector have been spouting in Calgary about the Stelmach government. Then add the reality of the potential for a serious revenue shortfall from commodity price meltdown and the Stelmach government was on the hunt for $2B in program cuts going into the 2010-11 Budget deliberations.

THE BLIND AND TONE DEAF PRE-BUDGET BUNGLING:

Transitioning out of the fear factor of the WAP touting the need for smaller, meaner and leaner government, even in a recession, the Stelmach government took a run at the health care, education social services sector. The announcement of hospital bed closures in Edmonton and Calgary plus the ham-handed handling of proposed Alberta Hospital transfers and closures of psychiatric beds added to the distaste and distrust of the public policy and governing philosophy of the Stelmach government.

The approach in the education sector was at least more collaborative and inclusive where school boards were asked to use accumulated surpluses to help make up for anticipated funding shortfalls. The use of the arbitration process in the ATA pension settlement agreement to determine the amount owing by the province to the pension fund was also seen as a more enlightened policy approach than the dictatorial demands the province tired to apply in other sectors.

The province extrapolated annual revenue shortfall of some $2B based on the presumption of low energy commodity prices continuing into the next budget cycle. The then tried to use that presumed shortfall to pressure and intimidate community based social service providers dealing with vulnerable Albertans into returning funds for services already paid for, provided and pursuant to contracts not grants. That dictatorial and intimidating approach was based largely on inaccurate and misleading information provided to politicians who were all too eager to assert their political power over groups while at the same time forgetting about their legal duty to provide these necessary services to vulnerable citizens. They tried and succeeded to get some not-for-profit volunteer based agencies to capitulate but in doing so the government has actually threatened the safety and security of people like children at risk, and persons with developmental disabilities. They also showed a chintzy and mean-spirited side by withdrawing of personal items and toiletries from institutionalized mental patients all done for a saving of only $70k annually.

This lack of caring and compassion by the government caused some in the not-for-profit and voluntary sectors to stand up and push back by refusing to accept claw-back demands. The Regional PDD Boards in many cases made career-limiting innuendoes and other fiscal threats to the leadership and management of these agencies trying to force compliance with the government’s demands. The agencies hung together and organized meetings with MLAs to tell them the facts of the matter, including that there were legally binding contracts with the government for these services that were negotiated last year at the insistence of the province. That the information the MLAs had in briefing notes about agency costs and where funds were going to serve vulnerable citizens was inaccurate and misleading. It got to the point that it was suggested that the province would be better advised to investigate its own administrative and service spending if they wanted to see where there was real waste.

THE CITIZENS ENGAGE AND STAGE RALLYS

The provinces pressure on agencies mounted but so did public support. The PDD agencies in Calgary held a mock bake sale “selling” muffins for thousands of dollars and the proceeds to be “donated” to assist the Stelmach government meet its statutory obligations to the people in the province with developmental disabilities. A bottle drive rally was held in Edmonton that brought out 1300 citizens to demonstrate and protest. They brought recyclable bottles and cans with messages to the Premier to drive home the mean-spirited attitude the province was showing towards the most vulnerable citizens in our society. The bottle drive raised $1000 and organizers collected thousands of letters to the Premier to be hand delivered to him at the legislature. The citizens trying to deliver them were denied access to the building. The Speaker upon hearing about that in Question Period recently asked opposition MLAs for a letter detailing why peacefully protesting citizens were denied access to their Legislature to carry out their protests. One can almost smell democracy returning to the air in Alberta again as citizens re-engage in the politics of our time.

The Whitemud Citizens Forum on Health Care rally in early January drew over 550 citizens to protest the health care situation for seniors too. The rally was organized by a few citizens who became frustrated with the lack of attention the government was paying to the issues. This rally was undoubtedly a key to the turnaround in attitude of the Stelmach government to health care funding and policy approaches shown in the recent Budget. So many upper-middle class Albertans showing up to protest in the riding where the Stelmach government had enjoyed its widest margin of victory in the election less than a year ago sent a clear message that people were fed up and not going to stand for any indifference or deceit from its government any more.

It is clear that one of the best ways to get the attention of the Stelmach government is to stand up, stand out and protest against bad politically motivated public policy pronouncements. Regular readers of this blog have heard me say many times that the world is run by those who show up. In Alberta you have to show up and stand up for what you believe in and that can make all the difference in how our government responds these days. Merciless and mean-spirited politicians are elected by good citizens who do not show up to vote.

THE PC AGM VOTE OF CONFIDENCE FOLLOWED BY FLOOR CROSSINGS AND CABINET SHUFFLE:

The 77% support for the Stelmach leadership at the November 2009 AGM was seen as a reprieve for the Premier but it put him on a short leash too. He said in his speech at the PC Party gathering that he “got the message” and he promised changes would come. Then everything just stayed the same with the Premier’s office now taking on even more of centralized top-down command and control stance in using the political and policy levers of power. MLAs were getting restless and quietly grumbling about the centralized political control by unelected staffers in the Premier’s office. With a Cabinet shuffle in the offing they choose to keep their discontent below the surface.

But in early January there was the loss of two PC MLAs floor crossing to the WAP both of whom decried the centralized power in the Premier’s office controlled by unelected staffers. There were anonymous media sources spreading rumours about the possibility of many more PC floor crossings to the WAP. This rumour became more plausible as it got repeated and amplified. It all tended to gives the WAP even more credibility and media attention. The Premier fast tracked his Cabinet Shuffle to stem the tide of a possible erosion of Caucus confidence. The gambit worked, at least for now, as the arch-conservative Ted Morton, got the job he wanted as Minister of Finance. This Cabinet appointment added fuel to the suspicion that the Stelmach government was going to return to the massive and brutal cuts of early Klein days and Morton would lead the slashing and burning with the Premier’s blessing.

The Cabinet shuffle was otherwise pretty inconsequential and did nothing to change the image and fortunes of the Stelmach government as tired and out of touch. The punditry and media saw them as still trying to show they were more neo-con than the conservative fundamentalism of the WAP. While this was going on, the grumbling old boy conventional oil and gas sector in Calgary started to work on developing an energy policy for the WAP. Suspicions rose that the WAP energy policy would see the rights of Albertans as resource owners ignored and relegated to being policy takers of decisions that would be made in boardrooms behind closed doors. The coziness of the conventional energy sector to controlling political power would then be complete and run by the tenants and not by the legislators by the duly elected representatives of the people of Alberta.

A NEW PARTY PROPOSAL AND REBOOT ALBERTA STARTS A PROGRESSIVE CITIZENS MOVEMENTS:

Progressives and moderates in the province saw that the only political choices Albertans were being offered were variations on neo-con policy agendas that would gut government and reduce citizens to servants of the old-school energy sector economic forces that were supporting the WAP and abandoning the PCs. Reboot Alberta was born in reaction to this rapidly rising right wing trend in the Alberta political culture. Again it was set up by a small group of independent and individual citizens as a way to revitalize and restore a progressive voice in Alberta politics.

The Reboot Alberta social movement met for the first time at the end of November. In less than 90 days has become a gathering place for most of those Albertans who are concerned about the direction and destination of the province. The Reboot Alberta website (www.rebootalberta.org) has generated lots of traffic and lots of postings from individuals who are keen to share thoughts and ideas about how Alberta can start to live up to its potential once again.

There is a study being done by Reboot Alberta about what values moderates and progressives in Alberta want to see applied by Alberta’s provincial politicians as they make various political and policy decisions that impact the lives of ordinary citizens. The survey results will be released at Reboot2.0, the next gathering of Reboot supporters in Kananaskis Feb 26-28. Early indications from the study show that the people joining the Reboot Alberta movement are very active Influentials and Cultural Creatives. This will be a potent citizens based social movement and will have an impact on public policy approaches now and in the future for sure.

The Reboot Alberta movement is evolving around four Theme Streams that are all moving forward concurrently. They are supported by individuals who want to change the existing parties and institutions to be more progressive from the inside. There are some who believe we need fundamental democratic reform in voting, electoral policy and political culture in the province. Others believe there needs to be more influence on politics and public policy from the not-for-profit and voluntary sector to balance off the power of big business in political and policy decision making. Still others believe there is a need for a new progressive-centrist political party to balance off the trends to the reactionary right shift that WAP is fostering.

The idea of a new political party is alive and moving forward through another citizens based group who call themselves Renew Alberta. They are in the process of organizing and gathering signatures needed to petition Elections Alberta for new party status.

CONCLUSION:

The Stelmach government reaffirmed itself as still having a potential to be both progressive and conservative with this Budget. There is a lot to applaud and to criticize in the document but overall it shows a shift away from running scared of the WAP and a return to the starting line of being a socially progressive and fiscally prudent government. The effect of this shift in attitude of the PC government will be to marginalize the WAP on the extreme fundamentalist conservative right and to show that they are far from being ready for primetime political power. The rise in WAP “support” has been more of a revolt against the PCs and a rejection of the other conventional parties as a viable option but as a way to send a message that citizens are upset with the status quo.

There is no doubt that political change is in the air. What form it will take is yet to be determined. There is a restlessness and restiveness in the land known as Alberta these days. It is touching many people in many aspects and goes to the core of our sense of being Albertan. Volatility is the new normal in the Alberta political culture. It will be interesting to see if progressives and moderates return to participation in the political culture of our times and add to the volatility. Will politics become relevant and cool for them again? I think many aspects of the new Budget will set the stage for an even more emboldened and engaged progressive citizen’s movement. They have seen what it takes to exert influence on their government, stand up, stand out and take action. I expect they will start to use their new found self-assurance to make even more meaningful differences in setting the agenda and policy direction for the province.

The rise of the WAP all of a sudden made politics interesting in Alberta. They offer no new insight or policy options, merely variations on tired and old political power themes. The rise of Reboot Alberta as a group of Influential and Culturally Creative progressives who are becoming engaged in a concerted social movement aimed at making Alberta live up to its potential as a civil society will make our politics actually fascinating. Progressives’ working respectfully and collaboratively is where the real revolutionary and transformative forces for political and public policy change will come from. The new political reality of Albertans is that they are rejecting the tedious and pointless posturing between left and right politics. They are ready to move forward as a more progressive society that lives up to its potential and where Albertans can be proud to be Albertan once again.

If you are interested in the Reboot Alberta movement you can participate at http://www.rebootalberta.org/.
You can register for Reboot2.0 there too. If you come to Reboot2.0 you will find like-minded progressive citizens who are intent on making a difference in how Alberta is governed.

Monday, January 04, 2010

Forsyth and Anderson Cross the Floor on the Stelmach Government

So another shoe drops on the heads of Alberta PC government with two Progressive Conservative MLA defections to the Wildrose Alliance Party today. My guess is this is just the start and we can expect some more MLAs to be evaluating their future with the current government.


Rob Anderson is a social conservative and has been pushing buttons in the government for a while now. His head and heart is more aligned to a far right political philosophy. He was a big proponent of the Bill 44 that was push through in spite of protestations of progressive Albertans. The raw political power push to pass that draconian social conservative legislation was a tipping point event for progressive Albertan’s attitude about “their” government. It made many progressives in the PC party realizes they were no longer being listened to, including me.

I was surprised that Heather Forsyth being one of the early defections. I know and respect Heather and know her to be a quality person and conscientious MLA. She is a political realist too. From listening to her reason to cross today, there was the usual stuff about representing her constituency but there was more. She listed a lot of serious issues and concerns about the Stelmach government’s approach to many social and economic concerns she has been dealing with at the door steps. She said the “government has lost its way” and commented that “Albertans need to feel proud of their province” again. I think she is right and those realities resonate.

These decisions are never easy. Both of these MLAs have to be taken seriously and I respect their decisions. But I sense this is just a beginning not the end of Stelmach’s woes with the Wildrose Alliance. I would not be surprised if more PC MLA defections are in the Wildrose plan but don’t expect anything until after the Cabinet Shuffle.

Reality in politics is about perception and just because that’s a cliché does not mean it is not true. Perceptions come from stories and narratives more than facts. The emerging narrative is that the PCs are in disarray. They are scrambling for relevance and respect and squandering what they have left of both qualities. The WAP is getting organized and has been an effective place to park ones protect about the PCs.

Today the narrative changed – dramatically. Today the cracks in the brain trust of the Stelmach leadership are being discussed by disaffected former party and government loyalists like Heather Forsyth. The light is shining in and what we are seeing is not helping the plight of the PC government or its leadership. The defector’s new conference comments today about the Stelmach government being undemocratic, authoritarian, intimidating and bullying inside the caucus reflects badly on the government. These same innuendos and coercion tactics have been happening from the government about many vulnerable but courageous people outside politics too. I know this from direct experience and reports from the not-for-profit community based social service sectors, most recently in the Persons with Developmental Disabilities area.

Here is another narrative that is totally speculative but as plausible as any other in the volatile and variable world that Alberta politics in now all about. Consider this story line. What if Ted Morton is not happy with his Cabinet position in the coming shuffle? Why would he stay in the Stelmach government? I don’t think he will cross the floor however. He will resign and return to the University of Calgary. His leave of absence from the U of C must be running out and if he does not return could he lose his tenure? He is not going to be Premier via the PCs or the WAP route so why stay in politics? He resigns and causes a by-election just outside of Calgary that Danielle Smith wins. She owes Morton big time as a result and he can then become anything he wants to be in advising and directing the future of the WAP.

Even the plausibility of this narrative will smoke out the rest of the disenchanted social conservatives in the PC caucus to jump to the WAP in the coming weeks. The internal politics will preoccupy and destabilize the government for some time to come. The more serious question is what will Stelmach do in response?

That is fodder for another blog post at another time. For now I think Albertans will be watching for big internal changes in the Premier’s office and in the Cabinet as well as with the fiscal, social and environmental policy agenda this month. Realistically, I see no scenario emerging today that would see a rebalance of the PC government towards a fiscally conservative and socially progressive and a resource stewardship and conservation mindset. That was the hallmark of the glory days of the PC party in Premier Lougheed’s day. To my mind we need to restore that kind of political culture so we Albertans can be proud of our province once again.

Friday, December 11, 2009

This is the Winter of Stelmach’s Disconnect

The latest Angus Reid poll putting the Alberta PCs in a second-place tie with the Liberals (25% each – ouch) will shake the confidence of the caucus and stir the cauldron of discontent that has been on a slow boil within the Stelmach government for some time now.

I have not seen the poll questions or actual results myself. I am commenting off newspaper reports. Jason Fekete wrote the front page blockbuster story and is a very good and reliable reporter. I have no reason to mistrust the facts he presents. There is always more intrigue in polling results when you take some time to dig a bit deeper. When I see the actual results I will do another post and put some political context around the numbers.

With apologies to Buffalo Springfield;” Something’s happening here? What it is ain’t exactly clear.” PC supporters must feel a bit like the day after the 1995 Referendum. The Quebec separatists lost with the thinnest of margins and Canada was “saved.” It was shocking and unnerving to many of us in the rest of Canada who realized, for the first time, how much public sentiment had shifted in Quebec.

That same unease and uncertainty is how I feel today as a progressive Albertan in the face of the Wildrose Alliance.  How can it be that they are being seen as the only potentially “viable” political option in Alberta? The question of is what is happening here is quite frankly very clear.

Here is part of what I see happening politically in Alberta these days. The PCs are clearly past their best before date. They have been around too long. They are now well beyond being tired, stale and bland. They have proven to be inept and ineffective in too many instances and appear to be chronically maladaptive. Everyone in Alberta paying attention to politics knows, or at least, senses this.

The political and policy shifts by the Stelmach government have been disconcerting to many. It started with the vacillating responses to the Royalty Review, all through the last election and the humiliating third place showing in the Glenmore by-election and the fiasco that was Bill 44 and Bill 50.  They all reinforce the growing sense of disdain by citizens towards their government.  It is a government who is not listening and showing abject indifference to legitimate concerns and objections. The PC government’s disconnect with Albertans sees them now responding defensively, using threats, intimidation and belligerence as priority “governing principles” - just to keep people in line.

The Liberals and NDP are seen as insipid and uninspiring alternatives to the comatose Conservative regime. They are not perceived as a potential primetime government in waiting. The Greens have implode and disappeared in the most bizarre of circumstances. And that leaves the Wildrose as the only possible alternative to consider – at this time? Spare us please.

The ascendance of Danielle Smith on the political scene as been covered by the traditional media with an E-Talk! level of celebrity-centric perspicacity. So much more needs to be known and understood about the Wildrose Alliance and in particular their social and environmental policies, principles and values. We don’t even know if they have people who would be the kind of candidates with character and qualities worthy of our consent to be governed.

This Angus Reid poll shows a dramatic spike in Wildrose Alliance “popularity.”  It says little, if anything, about them however. It is not very relevant to the fortunes of the Wildrose Alliance in the larger political scheme of things. At least not now given that we are so far away from any chance of a general election, currently expected in March 2012. It does, however, speak volumes about the shortcomings and disenchantment Albertans have for the other provincial political parties.

Bottom line – the Angus Reid outcome is an opinion poll. It is not a statement about a deeper judgment that citizens have to make about who will govern us when an election is actually looming. My sense is most of the Wildrose Alliance support in this poll is about sending a message to the other parties.  The message is that they are not doing the job rather than a positive choice in support of the WAP. If you added an option in this poll for “None of the Above” I’m betting they would end up being be the most popular party in Alberta today.

So take a Valium Alberta.  And in the meantime you better dust off your citizenship and park your political indifference and cynicism. They are luxuries you can no longer afford. If you don't re-engage as informed and involved citizens and WAP forms the next government you will be delegating decisions to fundamenalist, traditionalist and social conservative values throw-backs of a bygone era.  Indifference means those people will get elected and they will be making all the political and value choices for and about you, your life and your liberties.
 
Govern yourselves Accordingly Alberta!

Thursday, November 05, 2009

Is Alberta About to Enter an Empire of Illusion Stage Politically?

The speculation about the PC AGM party leadership review this Saturday is just another act in the on-going political power drama in Alberta these days. The flu fiasco is a much more critical concern for the population and the politics of the province.

That does not mean these matters are not related. They are just two issues on the minds of Albertans, including the economy, the environment and our democracy. Everything is attached to everything else in our complex inter-related and interdependent world these days.

PC Leadership Review:
It is hard to imagine that PC Leader Stelmach will not get at least 80% support from the party faithful this weekend. I say the party faithful because even if you are unhappy with the job the party leader is doing, he is still Premier of Alberta. And the primary purpose of a political party is to stay in power. Why would any of the delegates take the risk of opening up a bitter leadership fight? Better to get the leader to change than change the leader.

The PC Party is not the Same as Alberta:
The thinking members of the PC party appreciate that the people of Alberta are very unhappy with the Stelmach government. The new Environics poll in the CanWest papers today proves that in spades. The horserace part of media coverage is always the main focus. But it rarely reveals the real story.

So the Wildrose is #2 and closing in on Calgary. That’s not news. At best it is old news since the Calgary Glenmore by election. What does a Wildrose Alliance far right reactionary party holding the #2 spot mean for politics in Alberta? Is that the alternative most Albertans want? If not, then what? Where does all this leave the Liberals and NDs? That is the deeper news story.

Other Interesting Poll Results:
The poll raises some interesting concerns. Like why was there a 2 week data collection period? Very strange when one considers the impact of the emerging H1N1 story. It also makes you wonder how many calls were made to get 1000 Albertans to answer the poll. Some estimates say as many a 20 calls have to be placed before someone will answer a pollster. Makes you wonder about the true randomness doesn’t it? We don’t know much about the participants either but we presume they are properly demographically distributed not just geographically.

There are more interesting results in this poll than just the top line. Top issue for me is that the PC approval rating is at 36% - a 16 year low. With 54% of Albertans saying they disapprove of the government's performance. There is not much equivocation in opinions about the quality of our governance and leadership. I remember back in the day Don Getty had a personal approval rating of 17% - just before he retired. What is Premier Stelmach’s personal approval rating? We are not told. Hope it comes out in follow up stories. Please tell me that this question was asked.

The other interesting findings are the province wide 16% of undecided Albertans. That is as big as the Wildrose Alliance support in Edmonton. The tale of two cities is another interesting story. Calgary is used to having power, access and getting its way in the province, a holdover attitude from the Klein years. They continue to send a message of displeasure by parking support with the Wildrose Alliance. But do they truly believe in the WAP or just want to send a message the Premier. Or is this all about having a Calgarian in power, regardless of party? Too early to tell but that is an interesting unanswered question.

Edmonton is a much more interesting place politically these days with the PCs (34%) and Liberals (27%) statistically tied within the margin of error. The WAP is a distant 3rd and the NDP has their strongest showing in Edmonton at 13%. Are there are at least three solitudes emerging in Alberta these days? It sure looks like it. I think south, central and northern rural Alberta has some considerable differences too but the poll samples are too small to show them.

Another curious result is the Green support at 8% in the big cities and 9% in the rest of Alberta. That party does not even exist anymore but still can garner that kind of support. The Greens are equal to NDP in Calgary and beat them in the rest of Alberta. Ouch.

The Politics of the Poll:
The PC Party and the Premier’s office will see the timing of this CanWest sponsored poll coming out just before the leadership review on Saturday, as mischievous at best. Not that such manipulative and mischievous media messaging ever emanates from government. Remember the phony beach ads and the $25 million taxpayer paid slick ad campaign of the government to respond to dirty oil and the ugly Albertan? Whatever happened to that campaign?

This tradition of political and governance mis-messaging is exactly what will happen in coming weeks if the PC party leader gets over 80% support in the review process. The official line will be to ignore these poll results. They will say: Hey, we won the PC leadership when we were not supposed to. We won the election when we were not supposed to - and we got a larger majority too. Now we have the overwhelming endorsement of the party. There is a recession going on so what is the problem? The conclusion will be that there isn’t a problem. Things are just fine. The message will be that leader’s hand is on the rudder, the direction is clear and the government is on the right path. Steady as she goes and there is no need to change a thing. With that level of support they will promise to “stay the course.”

That attitude will likely be confirmation of an accelerated end of dominance of the Alberta PC political brand. Will it result in the demise of the dynasty that was created and nurtured by Peter Lougheed over 40 years ago?

“People who shut their eyes to reality simply invite their own destruction, and anyone who insists on remaining in a state of innocence long after that innocence is dead turns himself into a monster.”

That is a James Baldwin quote from “Empire of Illusion – the End of Literacy and the Triumph of Spectacle” by Pulitzer Prize Winner Chris Hedges.

Time will tell but will the clock be ticking for Premier Stelmach starting Saturday?

Tuesday, October 20, 2009

Is Danielle Smith A Game Changer in Alberta Politics?

As I said in an earlier post the political attention in Alberta will shift from the WAP Leadership of Danielle Smith to the PC AGM confidence vote on the Stelmach leadership.

I see the WAP overplaying their hand already claiming to being "ready to govern" in the next election, likely less than 3 years away. They have one MLA through winning a protest vote by election in Calgary. They have the underwhelming support of less than 8500 Albertans who could be bothering to even mail in a ballot. That hardly makes the WAP a "party of winners" as they are now claiming.

The grumpy old Reformer type social conservatives had to be embarrassed by the poor showing of their SoCon candidate in the WAP leadership results. One even more extreme WAP leadership candidate withdrew from the contest without explanation.  His anti-homosexual and closet Alberta separatist leanings didn't help promote what the new gentler big-tent party the new leader is calling for the WAP to become.

Smith, once selected to lead the WAP, was recently quoted as saying:

“Wildrose Alliance was seen even a few months ago as another marginal protest party. Now we’re the government in waiting”

“We’ve been doing a lot of cringing and ducking to avoid being labeled extremist. We should now stop. It’s undignified.”

But it's true the newly merged Wildrose and Alliance parties are full of extremists. Nice to see the new leader admitting that they have been "cringing and ducking to avoid" the label. It is not a label. It is the truth. The WAP can expect Albertans to cringe as this traditionalist political party tries to duck and hide from its yester-year discriminatory social policies.

I see the old-boys club of certain disgruntled Calgarians elites, who used to get direct and personal political access to Premier Klein back in the day, are now taking their shots at Premier Stelmach...including the former Premier himself. Shabby! I take my shots on the government too but I try to keep my criticism on policy and politics - not personality.

I was recalling the Klein-Betkowski PC leadership contest back in 1992. There were some elements in the Klein support base who said about Betkowski that "They were not going to be lead by that uppity educated city woman." Some of those same elements are now supporting Smith. I figure there must be some progress being made.

The biggest mistake we made in the Betkowski leadership campaign was to beat Ralph by 1 vote on the first ballot. The Klein forces came out of their self-satisfied shell and kicked our butts on the second ballot, even after every other candidate came to the Betkowski side.

We will have to wait and see if the Stelmach forces respond to the WAP in the same way by energizing and engaging. The reality still is the PC Party and the Stelmach government can choose to lose and even by the time the next election rolls around. If that happens then they will have both collaborated to engineer their mutual demise. November 7 at the PC AGM should give us some early warning signs as to what will emerge.

Danielle Smith's leadership victory and the recent WAP election result will be merely a catalyst for creating or the consciousness for change. She and the WAP are not necessarily going to set the direction or the destination from such change. There are other political forces afoot that may come into play. There may be a push for rebooting Alberta and designing a political agenda and alternative towards a more progressive direction and destination.

As Ralph used to say, "Stay tuned."

Sunday, October 18, 2009

Smith Wins Wildrose Leadership: Now What?

I had the opportunity to meet and talk with over 100 Wildrose Alliance Party members yesterday at their Leadership Convention in Edmonton. I was asked by the WAP Executive Director to do a presentation on social media, a subject that stirs my political passions. As an unrepentant Red Tory I wondered if the WAP (and I) knew what we were getting into but it was a very enjoyable event for me and the feedback on Twitter and face-to-face makes me believe the feeling was mutual.


The leadership campaign of Danielle Smith took over 75% of the membership support, a very conclusive result for sure. Congratulations are in order and I have to admire any citizen, regardless of stripe, who offers their time and talent as a political candidate in the service of the greater public good. The media was all over this party leadership, partly because of the strong showing in the Calgary Glenmore by election and the dismal third place shellacking the Stelmach PC’s endured.

The December 2008 Alberta Liberal leadership got minimal media coverage by comparison but the times were very different then. The melting Alberta economy was in full flight as the recession cum depression and commodity price collapse dominated the headlines. The WAP did not have the same media headline competition and in fact became the political story for a month or so before the leadership convention.

The leadership campaign voter and party membership numbers from both of these contests are underwhelming. In both the Liberal and WAP contest only about 71% of the members bothered to show up to vote. Does that mean 30% of those Albertans who paid for the party membership did so just to get the party membership seller off their back? Likely!

The Liberals only sold 6258 party membership for their leadership contest and 4599 of them bothered to vote. The WAP sold just over 11,600 party memberships and 8296 of them bothered to vote. The new leader of the WAP, Danielle Smith took over 75% of the voter turnout with 6295 ballots. One needs to put 6300 party supporters in perspective. Consider that in the 2008 Alberta election 37 winners in individual constituencies had more supporters than Smith did based on the entire province.

The WAP today is a long way from any reality as an alternative to the power of the Progressive Conservative support. The WAP knows that but the next election is 3 years away, coincidentally the same time Premier Stelmach recently predicted in his TV fireside speech that provincial surpluses would return.

One other very interesting implication from the WAP leadership was the party’s reluctance and tactical maneuvering to avoid disclosing the vote results. The pre-count concession by the very socially conservative candidate Mark Dyrholm was used as an excuse to avoid disclosing the vote results. They eventually unenthusiastically released the count. In fact as I write this, almost 24 hours later, the vote count is still not on the WAP website, just linked to the blog post of the Executive Director.

For the record, Smith got 6295 votes and Dyrholm got 1905 votes. This is a dramatic rejection of the anti-abortion, anti-homosexual, patriarchal, family-values political agenda of the far right base of the party mergers that became the Wildrose Alliance. Interestingly Dyrholm in a province-wide leadership campaign got fewer votes than Craig Chandler did in his third place finish the 2008 election in Calgary Egmont. OUCH!

This leadership rejection result will not sit well with the traditionalist base of the new WAP and I can’t see them going away quietly. Appeasement of socially conservative political agenda will be one of Smith’s first and toughest challenges as the WAP goes about the Province the hammer out a policy platform. There is already a WAP platform on their website that induced over 11000 Albertans to join up. What does Smith want to see changed, why and to what?

So now the WAP is a new party, with a new seat and a new leader. I think we need some hardnosed political perspective on the implications of this new party. I encourage every Albertan who is concerned about the future of this province to read the WAP policy platform and to reflect upon how it aligns with their values. If you agree, get on board with the WAP. If you disagree, you have a more complex set of political participation questions to consider. 

What if the PC's send Premier Stelmach a harsh political message at the November 7th party leadership review?  That will that trigger more dramatic consequences for Alberta than what happened at the WAP leadership tussle yesterday.  Time for Albertans to get ready for any one of a range of possible scenarios coming out of that crucial vote.  What the PC party says to Premier Stelmach then will promise to have a serious impact on all of us right now.  That political conversation will be happening mostly on Twitter at #PCAGM so sign up and tune in.