Reboot Alberta

Sunday, March 25, 2007

Harper's Giveaway Budget Will Not a Majority Government Make

I see the MSM poll interpreters and headline writers are up to their tricks again. Space, time and depth of analysis are all limited so the consequences are misleading and shallow reportage. The Strategic Counsel poll for the Globe and Mail and CTV on post budget results is a case in point. It was conducted over the 2 days immediately following the Harper Budget and put in the context of…did the Budget give Harper enough to call (and win???) an election?

Of course the MSM media wants an election because it is good copy, good for business and, let’s face it, elections are good sport for MSM too! The electorate on the other hand is not supportive of a spring election and the opposition parties save and perhaps except for Jack Layton, are not keen to go now either. We do not need a federal election right now, especially if Quebec is going to become volatile again with its own election results coming tomorrow.

Nevertheless, based on post budget polling, the MSM media screams breathless headlines that Harper is approaching “majority territory” with 40% and a commanding lead on the Liberals. This is of course, based on data collected during a total news blitz coverage on the Budget that was a giveaway to provinces where 2/3 of the population live. What else would you expect but a bounce in the first 2 days afterwards?

It was also polling data collected before Harper insulted the country with his Dion likes the Taliban more than our soldiers bleating, before Defense Minister O’Connor’s expose about “misleading of Parliament” (a euphemism for lying) and the disclosure of damaging documents that his Minister of Public Safety Stockwell Day electoral activities may have breached the Criminal Code and Harper’s utterances. This past week Harper also said he would not acknowledge a separatists government if that was the choice of Quebecers…as if he has such a choice in a democracy. This all happened last week to but after the polling data was collected so the context of the MSM presentation of the poll results from the Cons Budget is lacking if we are to be kind about it.

Let’s look at some serious analysis of the Strategic Counsel post-budget poll results anyway. First the Budget gave the Cons a bounce (39% positive and 21% negative), no doubt that would be the result given it was the largest spending budget in the history of the country and a cash giveaway akin to game show prize winnings in Quebec. Underlying this fact was that an equal number of Canadians were “neutral” on the budget. Hum! Maybe the 38% of citizens who were neutral wanted to also think about it and understand it before they jumped to conclusions.

I wonder where they have they evolved in their thinking and in their opinions now that the implications of this budget are better understood. It is now seen in a cynical light to be mostly a budget about political positioning and less about sound economic planning.

A full 55% of Canadians and 67% of Harper’s western base saw the budget as a gift to Quebec. Ironically only 37% of Quebecer saw it that way and 34% of them are “undecided” but, get this, 51% of Quebecers do not yet believe they have gotten “their fair share” from the Budget. This is not a winning formula for nation building Prime Minister Harper. Thanks a lot!

Besides we know the budget is not the ballot box question in any pending federal election anyway – the environment is. So why does the MSM think the budget matters as a value driver as to how people will actually vote when the question will be real? Well the poll asked an environment question too. I did not see a single report on that aspect of the poll.

Well gentle reader – here is some more context for you about what this poll may be telling us. When asked if “Canadians were more concerned about the environment than the Harper government” a full 67% said yes, indicating the Cons have not achieved lift-off velocity on the main issue in he country and the one that will likely decide the next federal election. Even more interesting is that in Quebec and Ontario, where Harper is and has to go to get votes for a majority government, they say he “does not get it” about the environment at the 72% and 70% levels respectively. Ouch!

Harper resonated on the tax surcharge on gas guzzlers with 68% support and only 28% against; the West, by the way, was slightly more supportive than the national averages. But that was before we knew he exempted trucks and was actually playing market maker with a poorly thought out policy that preferred only selected manufacturers but was quickly “fixed” to also include cars made in Flaherty’s neck of the woods.

The big sleeper and potentially the most explosive finding out of this survey got absolutely no coverage in the MSM. It was the results of the question of “Should the federal government be involved in areas of provincial jurisdiction?” A whopping 67% agreed. Even 51% of Quebecers agreed and even more interesting was that 72% of the West was on side with this proposition. The Premiers will not be amused and the Prime Minister will be bemused. Will it embolden Harper to become more Liberal than Trudeau in occupying provincial political territory and jurisdiction? Time will tell!

So we should not get all excited from the MSM headlines and stories coming out of this poll that it might trigger an unwanted election. It has much more substance than the reporting but it tells us that nothing has been decided and no trends have been identified…yet. One thing is for sure though, these are going to be exciting and unnerving times in this quite little part of the universe we call Canada.

8 comments:

  1. Anonymous2:23 pm

    "“Should the federal government be involved in areas of provincial jurisdiction?” A whopping 67% agreed."

    Obviously it is not acceptable to have federal involvement in areas of sole provincial responsibility. Slapstick Ottawa can't even properly manage the responsibilities it has now, in areas of secure social funding and national defence.

    The federal budget was impressive in that it allowed flexibility in the equalization arrangement. It was also good to see that the oil sands subsidies now have a timetable for ending and that we have incentives for choosing fuel-efficient vehicles.

    Granted, the spending increases cannot continue in subsequent years. However, it is good to see that this wasn't a mean-spiritied Paul Martin-style budget that downloaded the pain to the provinces.

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  2. Anonymous4:46 pm

    Don't know who you are anonymous @2:23 but I sure like the way you think.

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  3. Anonymous8:10 am

    Ken, as you surely know, it is the CPC's internal polling numbers that will determine whether or not they think that a majority is realistically in reach.

    Let's just wait for the Quebec election results. If Charest holds on, the probability of a federal election will double - if Boisclair wins, election speculation will plummet.

    I find this post odd. It's almost like you're saying the environment issue is more important than the budget! Yikes! Dion really is a one-trick pony.

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  4. Anonymous9:49 am

    eric - politically we already know who the winner is in the Quebec election...Dumont! With the balance of power he will control much of the Ottawa agenda until the next federal and Quebec elections at least.

    If you Cons think your Daddy Warbucks Budget that put most of your giveaway tax money into Quebec is the road to a majority you are in for a rude awakening. You are ignoring and insulting the intelligence of your base.

    If you think the environment will be trumped by short term politically motivated cash gifts designed to buy off the real concerns of most Canadians you are mistaken.

    You are showing that you are not in touch with what is really concerning Canadians.

    If your internal polls tell you differently, change pollsters BEFORE IT IS TOO LATE.

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  5. Anonymous11:33 am

    I agree that poltical watchers know that Dumont is already a winner, but if Boisclair squeeks out a minority victory, people in other provinces may think that Dion rather than Harper is the best person to hold the country together (despite the fact that even a minority gov't would be a defeat to the separatists).

    "If you Cons think your Daddy Warbucks Budget that put most of your giveaway tax money into Quebec is the road to a majority you are in for a rude awakening. You are ignoring and insulting the intelligence of your base."

    Let our party worry about our base; your party has demonized us for so long that I find it odd that you're now suddenly worried for us. I think that will hold true for many CPC members. Let's wait to an election to see who is "out of touch" with Cdns. So far, so good on the budget front. Add a federalist victory in Quebec and the LPC may get its wish - an election (remember that Dion's first words when elected LPC leader was to go to an election as soon as poosible)

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  6. eric - I worry about your base, many of them are my friends - the Progressive Conservative part of the CPC- and they are not happy and neither are the ReformAlliance types from what I am told.

    As for an election, Harper is constantly saying he does not want one and is acting and budgeting like he is engineering one.

    Yes Dion (like Harper) wants an election "as soon as possible." What they both really mean to say is they what an election where they can have a chance to form a majority government "as soon as possible."

    That time had not arrived for either of them yet. And with an uncertain Quebec we may find Canada looking for some nationalist certainty in a majority government.

    As for westerners, we may find ourselves longing for a Prime Minister prepared to stand up to Quebec for the good of the country and not just one trying to buy them off as Harper is now doing.

    Glad to see you are not worried about your base.

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  7. Anonymous1:33 pm

    I admit that it is tough holding together such a big tent (try Bob Plamondon's book on this topic). The CPC can't just keep saying "where else are you going to go", but from what I see on the ground most members saw the budget as a stepping stone to a majority government. I agree with you - there will only be an election if one party realistically thinks they can attain a majority.

    Ken, I think you may be out of touch with the current political situation in Quebec. If Charest does get a victory with a strong ADQ showing (see your post above), this is absolutely great news for the CPC.

    "As for westerners, we may find ourselves longing for a Prime Minister prepared to stand up to Quebec for the good of the country and not just one trying to buy them off as Harper is now doing."

    Yes Ken, your party has NEVER done anything like that! The westerners tried something called the Reform once, but I don't think there is a craving for that while we're so close to a majority.

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  8. eric
    I never thought, nor claimed, I was in touch with Quebec politics. I am just drawing a picture of implications resulting from a potential election scenario in Quebec.

    Liberal/ADQ mix in a minority government is the the B Plan for Harper. Trying to engineer (or buy may be a more accurate description) a Liberal majority was the A Plan. The budget screwed that up in the minds of Quebecers and raised real concerns in the ROC.

    I hope this Charest/ADQ outcome is good for the Haprer Cons at least. It does not do much for the good of the country.

    The Liberals are not my party even though I have joined it for the purposes of voting for delegages the leadership. I do not yet see a party that comes very close to what I think is needed in the country these days. I do feel free to join any party that my favourite candidate represents and do not feel bound or contrained by such membership in any way. I value and use my Charter right to free association and I use it often.

    I do think Dion is the best choice for Prime Minister and I have to settle take the Liberal party as part of achieving that goal.

    Of course the Liberals have oft times pandered and tried to buy off Quebec for reasons of self interest. Adscam being the most blatant example of this.

    You seem always to say that because "they" did it the Cons somehow have a legitimate licence to engage in the same abuse of Canada and its citizens.

    Shake your head. Canadians are demanding better and this attitude will not cut it. Be afraid the old Reformers will stay home this election...they did it to Ralph last election and you guys are not so special they won't do it again.

    You have to tell us if the Budget really set up a $30M pool for the same event and sponsorship purposes like in Adscam - you never responded to my earlier request about this.

    Why has your party done this? Are you anticipating some need to further influence Quebec like old-time Liberals? Not good!

    BTW - What is the title of the Plamondon book you mentioned?

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