I posed this question in a blog post last March when Mr. Kenney won the PC leadership.
A lot has happened since then. The PCs and Wildrose have "united" under the leadership of Mr. Kenney. Former Wildrose leader Brian Jean seems tentative about serving under Mr. Kenney.
The Alberta Liberals and Greens both have new leaders. And the Alberta Party is in the hunt now for a new leader with the surprising resignation of Greg Clark/
Premier Notley became the Leader of the Alberta NDP three years ago in October 2014, and is now the longest serving party leader in the province,. She is replacing the recently resigned Alberta Party Leader Greg Clark who became leader way back (sic) in September 2013.
With all this churn where will progressive go in the next election? They went NDP last time to turf the PCs and because of a well-founded general distrust of the Wildrose on many policy issues.
Will there be a split amongst progressives between the NDP and a refreshed Alberta Party so the UCP comes up the middle to take over and rule Alberta?
Will more women and Millennials show up next time, like they do in non-partisan municipal elections, to help organize campaigns? Will there be more progressive voters showing up so we get greater political participation and turnout? Will that expanded progressive participation and voter turn out avoid a disastrous split of progressive votes and ensure the UCP is in third place?
Will the next election be as dramatic as the last one? Would a minority government be possible?
Who knows? The reality is the volatility in Alberta politics we have experienced is now dating back to 2006 election that was portending end of the Klein era. He was kicked out as PC leader at the next AGM of the PCAA.
Political volatility in Alberta is not over yet...and frankly, we ain't seen nothing yet as we move into perpetual campaign mode two years before the next election.