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Sunday, December 03, 2006

Ed’s MLA’s Come Through in the Second Ballot.

The top performers in delivering the Second Ballot vote for Ed Stelmach is Ed Stelmach. His own astonishing performance of 4156 votes in Fort-Sask Vegreville for 91% of total votes cast.

Given the obvious propensity for Morton supporters to go to Stelmach over Dinning, I have not said much about the impact of the second preference vote, although the MLAs would also have some impact on that outcome. Where it made a significant difference I have noted it.

The Second Ballot ranking (excluding the Morton #2 preference support) of the MLA endorsements for Stelmach are:

#1 Ray Danyluk of Lac La Biche-St Paul with 2496 votes
#2 Hon. Dave Hancock of Edmonton Whitemud with1909 votes
#3 Hon. Iris Evans of Sherwood Park with 1493 votes
#4 Hon. Luke Ouellette of Innisfail-SylvanLake with 1385 votes
#5 Lloyd Snelgrove of Vermillion-Lloydminster with 1231 votes
#6 Hon. Lyle Oberg of Strathmore-Brooks with 1012 votes
#7 Fred Lindsay of Stony Plain with 909 votes
#8 Mark Norris of Edmonton McClung with 917 votes (21 votes over Dinning but 246 past him on the allocation of the Morton second preference votes)
#9 George Groeneveld of Highwood with 901 votes (lost to Morton at first but won big time over Dinning by over 1000 votes on the Morton second preference votes)
#10 Hon. Pearl Calahasen of Lesser Slave Lake with 891 votes
#11 Hector Goudreau of Dunvegan-Central Peace with 581 votes
#12 Hon. Mel Knight of Grande Prairie Smokey with 570 votes
#13 Ivan Strang of West Yellowhead with 481 votes
#14 Hon. Guy Boutilier of Fort McMurray Wood Buffalo with 306 votes almost 100 votes behind Dinning on the first count and he still lost to Dinning with the addition of the second preference Morton votes.

This is a ranking of the performance of the supporters. I have not done the analysis but I expect all did significantly better than the November 25th first vote. Some constituencies have smaller and more dispersed populations than others so that will account for some differences.

That said though, this is a pretty good idea of who the real performers were for Ed Stelmach’s campaign. The top six are pretty impressive. The Hon. Boutilier is clearly not a campaigner. He garnered only 306 votes where the Fort McMurray population alone is now the size of Red Deer.

16 comments:

  1. Jonathan Sharek11:00 pm

    Question for Ken:

    Does this mean the Tories are doomed to an eternal battle of North/South - Edmonton/Calgary? Was this a pick for Ed the candidate or was this a desparate move to reclaim power from the Calgary base?

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  2. Biker Ray Danyluk .... a fricken machine!

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  3. Anonymous1:22 pm

    Wondering what cabinet position Morton will receive.

    I'm guessing Dinning won't even run as an MLA. That would further demonstrate his lack of substance.

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  4. Anonymous3:03 pm

    Ken - please give us your prediction (hopes) for the cabinet. Where would Hancock fit in? I'm guessing Ed will prefer experience.

    I've heard that Ed has stated he will run the province until the end of the election term (2008).

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  5. Ken Chapman3:42 pm

    I have some thoughts on Cabinet but really know it is smarter to leave the new Premier alone. This is a vitally important process and the new leader gets way too much unsolicited advice.

    I am guessing here...not suggesting...and I have no inside information at all. Cabinet will be about 17 is my guess.

    Ed says beyond the regional and gender balance issues he will value experience, skills and loyalty in making Cabinet choices. Those are the right criteria for sure.

    Hancock will be there as part of the longer range strategic and policy planning...the criticism that stuck on all the leadership candidates was the comments by Ralph that the party did not have a plan.

    Ed and Dave know they did - the 20 Year Strategy...just not the engagement from the top to make it happen.

    Ed has a long view as well as the short view towards policy and planning. Ideally he and Dave will put their heads, talents and energy together and prove that lack of a plan stigma wrong.

    Some things I think are obvious. Oberg will be in cabinet but not in health...serious policy differrences with Stelmach. Good to keep Iris there for continuity and to keep the experience she has gathered working for a better system (NOT the Third Way).

    Morton will be in cabinet and in a significant role that takes advantages of his skills. This is all I will say.

    Ray Danyluk will be in Cabinet. He is one of the most underrated unknowns in the Caucus and he delivered huge voter numbers for Ed. Ray is the best new example of a focused energized retail politician. Stelmach and Hancock are too but each is different in their approach. No coattails to ride on in the next election...PC MLAs all over Alberta will have to earn their seats. Ray shows the way!

    Norris will become the Executive Director of the PC Party and his very capable campaign manager Tim Shipton will go there with him I hope. They make a great team.

    Then the REAL revitalization of the party will happen...not the false start that was done in this area after the last election.

    Based on the criteria Stelmach outlined for Cabinet selection - I expect a fair number to be out of Cabinet because it will be smaller and there are loyalty issues. Some current members who obviously under performing. Messages have to be sent about performance expectations and they will be. "Nice" only goes so far!

    Also many very competent seasoned Cabinet members who are not likely to run next time will not make the cut but not for any reasons of performance...just time for new blood and new energy.

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  6. Anonymous4:07 pm

    I know that Ray will be in the cabinet, but man this guy has really no credentials. Yes, he got out the vote - in Ed's former riding. Loyalty is obviously key, but I sure hope he is not given an important role. Check his background - he really has done nothing since he was elected.

    While I certainly did not support Hancock as leader, I too hope and know he'll be given a huge role.

    It seems like Ed and Ted both wanted a provincial pension plan - maybe Ted will be put in charge of that (and could likely negotiate well with Harper).

    Anyway, should be an exciting next couple weeks (I hear he'll have his choices made before Dec 15th).

    Check out the AB gov't website - there definitely is a need to reduce the size of cabinet (i.e. combining education with 'advanced' education and so on).

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  7. Anonymous4:30 pm

    Boutilier runs the lamest non-campaigns in the province, no surprise that he didn't deliver. He's pissed about it, though, and is pretty bitter that there are people in "Guyville" who dare to go against the supposed wisdom of the local MLA.

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  8. Anonymous4:54 pm

    Morton might be able to negotiate well with Harper, but it would be wise to be prudent and put in someone at intergovernmental who can at least have some sort of working relationship with the Liberals if and when they win the election that will be held this spring. Also, how much negotiations are needed to establish Stelmach's vision of a provincial pension plan? I don't think that much because the plan is meant to supplement and not replace the CPP. Correct me if I am wrong, but I thought that Morton wanted to replace the CPP with a made in Alberta plan. If this distinction is correct, then all Alberta needs to do is enact a statute to create our own supplemental plan. I like this idea of a provincial supplemental plan because it would build a body of capital that could be used to diversify the Alberta economy and to give Alberta more decision making power over the national economy if we decided to use our wealth to invest heavily in other national industries.

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  9. Anonymous6:11 pm

    I agree with the anon at 4:54. Morton might not be the best person for intergovernmental affairs, but then that begs the question - what position will he be given?

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  10. Anonymous9:34 pm

    I don't understand how a MLA delivered the vote for Ed S. Could you explain how you would know ? Perhaps a particular riding just liked Ed .

    A better view might be that Ed was the preference of the majority of us 2 minute tories and the second choice of the Ted (Red Neck/Neo con) team .

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  11. Anonymous12:46 pm

    Anonymous (4:07PM) said...
    "I know that Ray will be in the cabinet, but man this guy has really no credentials. Yes, he got out the vote - in Ed's former riding."

    Wrong. Ray's riding does not, and never did, overlap with Ed's. Ray is too far north.

    I have met Ray Danyluk. Don't let the "biker/Wolfman Jack" profile fool you. He knows what is going on, and I think he is vastly under-rated (kind of like Stelmach was up until, oh, 4 days ago). Ray would be a loyal lieutenant - given the nest of vipers around the caucus table Ed will need him.

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  12. Anon 4:07: Ray's riding includes much of Ed's previous riding. The lines were changed. I know many people who were represented by Ed and then later by Ray.

    I've met Ray as well. I know "he knows what is going on" but that is not enough to be qualified as a competent minister's position. I know he will be given one for his loyalty, but he really doesn't bring much to the table.

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  13. Ken,I read with some interest your knocking of our MLA,Guy Boutilier, for
    > purportedly not "delivering" for Ed Stelmach.It might interest you to know
    > that Ed went from 29 votes to over 300 in one week which represents 1000%
    > increase in support.Although "Jimmy"(Dinning) had a well organized team on
    > the ground in FtMcMurray for well over a year and was perceived as the
    > "frontrunner" throughout the provinces and had name recognition going for
    > him,he still ONLY managed less than 400 votes will all that effort.What Guy
    > has done for his riding vastly surpassed the great majority of his fellow
    > MLA's.
    > You should get to know him,SERIOUSLY,I think you could learn alot from
    > him!!!
    >
    >Bill G.

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  14. jonathan sharek6:10 pm

    Interesting how everyone skirted my question. (It was the first post)

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  15. Anonymous9:31 pm

    Bill G weak logic in support of Boutilier arguing percentage improvement means nothing starting from a 29 voter base. Really it is the actual votes that count.

    If Guy had started from a base of "0" votes for Stelmach in the first ballot then his "improvement" would have been infinite. Boy that would have impressed Bill G but proves nothing about Boutilier's performance.

    He has a personal base support that he ought to have delivered for Oberg in vote 1 and Stemlanch in vote 2 - he did neither...why?

    It is not as if he did not have lots of time and advanced notice from as late as April 1 when Klein was tossed out by the Party.

    If you want to know more about Guy check out his apprearance before the EUB detailed in the Larry Johnsrude and Daveberta blog sites. That tells us all we need to know about Guy B.

    He has to be a goner from Cabinet.

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  16. Ken Chapman9:26 pm

    Jonathan S - the north-south/Edmonton-Calgary is also a rural- urban and an inside or outside the Corridor and then there are generational differences etc.

    This was a rural/Edmonton vote for Ed. In Ralph's world we had a rural/Calgary coalition.

    We will see what consequence it brings.

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