Reboot Alberta

Friday, December 08, 2006

"How Morton Made Stelmach Leader"

Link Byfield has provided his “take” of the PC Party Leadership results from last Saturday’s voting. I can agree with Link that Morton was a “backbencher” but to claim he had no “media or public support” is a stretch. How did he “knock out four Cabinet Ministers,” on the first ballot, divine intervention?

I have said before that the reality of modern politics is the facts, while interesting, are almost totally irrelevant to people. It is how you frame issues and how they activate people’s values and beliefs that make the difference. Link is a master at taking a set of facts, framing them in such a way that he sets them up to generate the reaction he wants and he invites people to share his pre-conceived conclusion. This is “spin” at its most sophisticated level.

Here is what he has done in this “Commentary” piece. His preconceived conclusion is that Ted Morton is the real cause of the Ed Stelmach victory. He says as a fact that, “Then because most of his (Morton’s) supporters chose Stelmach as their second pick, Morton’s camp gave Stelmach his whopping majority over Jim Dinning.”

Link also concludes by saying, “So only one of the three finalists was actually defeated, not two. Say what? Are we to believe from this statement that Professor Morton somehow won this election too? I don’t think so.

For the record, Stelmach moved from #3 to #1 between the first and second ballot. What if Morton was second and Dinning had been third and out of the second count? Would Link be as quick to conclude that the Dinning’s camp gave Stelmach the victory because his voter’s second preferences went to Stelmach. Obviously then too “only one of the three, (Morton in this case) was actually defeated?” I don’t think so!

More that 10,000 Morton supporters did not mark Stelmach for second choice and, can you believe this, over 4000 of Morton supporters picked Dinning as second choice. If Morton was the real “cause” of the Stelmach victory those 14,000 votes would have been there for Ed too, wouldn’t you think?

Next he goes further by wrapping all this in another “issue frame”, the same old lets pick a fight with Ottawa. He obviously expects Ed to pick a specific “Morton identified” fight with Ottawa which is based on the myth that the Feds are taking more money out of Alberta than they are entitled to.

The fact is Albertans’ pay federal income and corporate taxes, just as do all Canadians from every province. Albertans make more money and therefore pay more taxes. Duh! This is the essence of progressive income tax models we use in Canada. So much for the facts!

Now Professor Morton believes “…that Albertans must learn to stand on their own feet and reduce the massive outflow of Alberta money to the federal treasury.” Firstly I don’t think Albertans feel very incapable of standing up for themselves, contrary to Professor Morton’s belief.

Secondly, this is not “Alberta money.” That characterization misleads one to think it is resource revenues from the Alberta provincial treasury that are somehow being drained in a “massive outflow…to the federal treasury.”

This money is just the personal and corporate income tax payments of Canadian citizens who live in Alberta. As I said, Albertans make more money than other Canadians so we pay more taxes. Nothing more to it than that! But based on this “blaming” framing of the issue, according to Professor Morton, Premier Stelmach is now supposed to take on Ottawa? And the fight is supposed to be over the personal and corporate taxes we pay just as every other Canadian citizen does?

There are many significant and serious issue facing the Canadian federation and Alberta’s role in it. This Reform/Alliance party manufactured issue artificially framed as a “massive outflow…into the federal treasury” is not one of them.

10 comments:

  1. Anonymous4:41 pm

    Apparently Link is better at the spin than you. I counted 8 questions in your response - I certainly wasn't taught to debate like that when I was in law school.

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  2. Anonymous4:48 pm

    "The "myth" that the feds are taking are taking more money out of Alberta that they are entitled to." Hmmm, it's odd that a lot of other premiers have this same myth. Ken, were you writing Dinning's speeches in the last weeks of the campaign? Link is not refering to personal or corporate income tax rates - he's discussing the federal equalization formula. Duh!

    Morton's argument, along with the Sask and Nfld premiers, is that the resource revenue does belong to the province (since it a one-time non-renewable resource) and, as such, should not be included the calculation of the federal equalization plan.

    Ken, you are normally very up-to-date on the issues. I'm actually quite surprised that you mistakenly thought Link's entire argument was based on income taxes rather than the equalization formula. Please read up on the arguments before you decide to 'systematically' tear them apart. I've taken the time to read your written articles before debating on your blog.

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  3. Anonymous4:49 pm

    Ken,
    Thanks for posting this. Wow, Link can sure spin a tale.

    He conveniently forgot to include how Morton, because of his long association with the Reform Party, not only had access to their huge grassroots machine, but also the direct - and very public - support of a number of MPs (Kenney, Thompson, Anders, etc.). Whether some of those MPs aided his cause by their public support or hurt it, is debatable and moot.

    I am really, really tired of the Strom reference by now. It has been used by almost all self-described pundits east of Manitoba and now some closer to home. It goes thusly - Strom was a nice man and a farmer by background; Stelmach is a nice man and a farmer by background; ergo Stelmach=Strom. It smells of one of the last stereotypes you can get away with these days - that of the "earnest, though dimwitted sodbuster". I would have thought that Link as a fellow Westerner would have had better graces.

    I don't think Link is that obtuse. He is merely doing what the Mortonites want - giving Ted the next best thing to the Premiership right now - the Ministry of International & Intergovernmental Affairs. I can only hope that after Dec. 15 (after cabinet is named) that this nonsense will end.

    P.S. The reason Morton lost is that he was running a federal campaign in a provincial leadership race, and that with a fellow conservative (and friend as he never failed to point out) as Prime Minister, his protestations of unfairness rang somewhat hollow.

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  4. Anonymous6:33 pm

    "Link is not refering to personal or corporate income tax rates - he's discussing the federal equalization formula. Duh!"

    What does eric think the equalization formula and sunsequent payments are based on I wonder? This is something a lot of Mortonites also did not understand during this campaign.

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  5. Anonymous7:52 pm

    Exactly, anonymous #2. Equalization is a federal (repeat, federal) program paid for by federal (repeat, federal) revenues. The only way Alberta can withdraw from equalization is to leave Canada.

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  6. Anonymous8:54 pm

    Right on Ken. Your heart is in the right place, and needless to say Link's is not - all this whining when we have Conservatives in power in both ottawa and edmonton is disgusting and the sin of ingratitude for our blessings...all these redneck conservatives are just bellyaching...If they really believed in God, they should give thanks to Him and go and behave themselves - or as my grampa said, "Kepp your mouth shut & you'll have a decent funeral!"

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  7. Anonymous8:56 pm

    Eric - I accept that you are right in that Link is talking equalization payments, not taxes. Thx for the clarification. That said read anonymous of 6:33 and austin of 7:52. Are we talking a distinction without a difference here?

    Lets not forget Alberta has benefitted as a receipent of equalization payments in the past too.

    If we don't get ready for a depleted conventional resource, or a reduced hydrocarbon world or an alternative energy world, or have an economic diversity buffer against the price volatility inherent in commodities... who knows, we may be accepting equalization payments again.

    A sense of nation, especially a federal system, is not measured by an income and expense statement, even in Alberta.

    BTW, I was not debating Link. I was just asking people to consider if his interpretation of the facts resonated with their sense of what happened.

    I think it reasonable to question his premise that while Morton came in third Link thinks somehow he did not lose the election...he is instead Stelmach's co-winner.

    We agree on the facts we just have a difference take on the context and the consequences of what they mean. Link says because 28% voted for Morton that makes him a winner? I say 72% rejected his extremist campaign. Hardly a winning situation.

    The Strom reference is more bogus framing. Stelmach has no Lougheed coming after him as Strom did in 1971 and Ed was not a compromise candidate either. Remember he was #1 on the second ballot. Morton and Dinning blew it in week two!

    Morton is now a proven campaigner but not as formidable as originally thought. He is no Lougheed either, and Stelmach is no Strom.

    Stelmach will be his own man and not a semblance of anything else we have seen in Alberta politics.
    It is a new day in Alberta and with Premier Stelmach we will be governed in a new and better way too.

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  8. Anonymous1:16 am

    I have to say that my impression is that there was a large anti-Morton vote. I know of at least 10 people who bought membership and voted to keep Morton out. He was certainly a ballot box question. Whether he was the defining ballot box question - I'll leave for wiser heads to decide. There was also a strong anti-Dinning vote and a decent pro-Stelmach vote. In fact, there seem to be three different stories converging here. None of them suggest that Morton is somehow a winner. He will likely end up in cabinet, but that is only because Stelmach fears the consequences for the Party if he's doesn't get a position. In short, Morton will be in cabinet because he is a problem, not a great asset.

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  9. Anonymous10:22 am

    Ken, I agree that the equalization formula is so complicated that in reality only a handful of people in the country truly understand it and that does not include me. However, what should the role of the premier of Alberta be? Doesn't the premier owe a duty to Albertans first? Someone will step in saying this is selfish...although almost every premier does this (Calvert on excluding resource revenues from equalization, McGuinty wanted to fix the fiscal imbalance, Quebec stating it doesn't get its fair share from confederation). I don't think AB should hoard its assets, but it should simply be treated fairly.

    In his blog, Dave Berta has a post on the guesses for the cabinet positions and some of the comments shed some like on the predictions.

    ap thinks Morton is not a great asset. While he didn't win the election, he is highly intelligent and articulate and received 28% of the vote. He is an asset to the PC Party.

    I'm guessing Hancock for Environment Minister.

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  10. Anonymous1:17 pm

    Anonymous at 10:22...what has 28% got to do with anything? Dinning got 36% and what if he runs and wins in a By-election in Calgary Elbow, wouldn't he trump Morton based on percentage vote? It is not a rational test for appontment to Cabinet.

    It is about Professor Morton's commitment to the Statement of Principles of the Progressive Conservative Party and if he will really follow Premier Stelmach's agenda as the winner and not promote the Reform/Alliance agenda.

    We shall see if he will align with the PC Party and not try to change it into the Reform/Allinace Party.
    Early signs are not promising.

    What has the federal equalization program enshrined in our Constitution [s36(2)]got to do with any primary duty of Premier of Alberta? Equalization is paid out of federal dollars received from citizens of Canada through taxes and not out of GOA revenues or other funds as the Reform/Alliance folks would have you believe.

    We may get fewer federal services for the dolars we spend but reconcile that with the positoin of the Reform/Alliance position that Ottawa interferes with provincincal jurisdiction too much already. Morton says "More Alberta-Less Ottawa" and I agree if it is about respect for jurisdicion but not about the principle of equalization.

    It is more complex than that but the inconsistency of the Reform/Alliance position needs to be reconciled as part of this discussion.

    Again it is the Reform/Alliance framing of the issue to gnerate the conclusion they wish...not all the facts are presented and the context is engineered to serve an end. Just another reason to be careful who you elect.

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