Don't Believe the Buzz About an Early Alberta Election

There is low level buzzing about a possible spring 2011 election in Alberta.  While in politics anything is possible I don’t put much credence in any early election, at least not right now.   There are many reasons why not but here are a few of the main ones. 

THE WILDROSE WILD CARD!

The Wildrose has peaked in the polls and while a threat they are stalled.  People have stopped looking to send the PC government a message by shifting “allegiance” to the upstarts.  People are beginning to wonder what the WAP is all about.  Serious questions about what they stand for beyond defeating the Stelmach government and who is in control from behind the scenes are now emerging.

Don’t misunderstand me.  The WAP is a potent political force but it is not a government in waiting...not yet.  It is right wing socially conservative core with a libertarian leader who is schooled in Fraser Institute philosophy that the marketplace privatization of public service is the best public policy option.  They also have no serious credibility in becoming the big tent progressive political party of Peter Lougheed’s day like they say they aspire to be. 

Unless the WAP takes off beyond the support levels they enjoy now, there will be no need to go to an early election.

THE ECONOMY

We are not sure where the economy is headed but it is slowing and the US looks like it is in for a double dip recession.  The federal and provincial government stimulus money has worked to keep things from totally imploding but that effort is over.  Now the open question is will the private sector picked up the slack and investing again?  Will commodity prices and confidence hold enough to induce continuing investment?  What is happening in the US economy is scary and the mouse and elephant metaphor still resonates.  Alberta will be impacted significantly with what happens economically south of the border.   Timing here is against an early election.

DO WE HAVE A SPENDING OR A REVENUE PROBLEM?

There is an emerging debate about if we have a revenue problem or a spending problem and then there is uncertainty about a possible sales tax sometime in Alberta’s future but not on Stelmach’s watch.  My opinion is we have both revenue and spending problems and they are highly integrated issues.    The Premier backed off from reasonable royalty rates seven times since the new royalty regime was announced.   Ties to commodity prices make revenues volatile and that is a planning as well as a revenue problem

We Albertans as owners of our natural resources, have the second lowest total resource revenues in the on plant next to the UK North Sea oil.  We Albertans also have the largest total amount hydrocarbon resources on the planet.  We are second only in terms of exploitable resources behind Saudi Arabia and they have not publicly updated their reserve estimates since the mid 70’s.  They have pulled a lot of oil out of the ground and few new discoveries since then so I would not be surprised if Alberta is the largest total and exploitable oil reserves in the world...thanks to the oil sands

As new technologies come on we will be able to reach even more oil sands over time.   We are next door to the USA, the largest hydrocarbon market on the planet...for now.  And we have all the necessary international agreements and physical infrastructure in place to serve the market.  This along with a stable democracy, a reliable currency, the rule of law with an independent justice system, no threat of state nationalization of assets, and a safe secure society where your employees do not get kidnapped for ransom. So why are we giving the resources away with ridiculously low royalties?  We should be charging a 35% premium for our royalties compared to every other energy provider to the US market, perhaps even including their own domestic supplies.

The problem with revenue volatility has been identified by the Premier’s Council of Economic Strategy in their recent discussion paper when they said:

“Economic volatility also means fluctuating government revenues, which hinders good fiscal planning and destabilizes program delivery. If revenues from “windfall” energy exports get built into program

budgets or subsidies, inevitably something must be cut when the windfall is no longer available. We

must also remember that these revenues come from non‐renewable resources: Spending them on

today’s operating needs can draw down the legacy owed to future generations.”

SALES TAX POLICY IS IDEOLOGICAL NOT LOGICAL NOR FAIR

If we are to sustain a low and flat tax and still not penalize lower income people we need a related consumption tax.  Yes a sales tax.  Or else we can decide to return to a fairer progressive taxation model and perhaps forgo a sales tax.  However a sales tax makes sense because it can help reduce waste and excessive consumption too and make sure the current generation pays for the public services what we use.  

That is the more fundamental principle in play here.  There is a need ensure Albertans pay our way for the public programs we want and need on a current revenue basis.  Instead of providing tax levels sufficient to pay our way we use non-renewable natural resource revenues (as stifled as they are) to subsidize current operational program spending.  Instead of paying our way we steal the natural resources birthright from future generations.  We also decide to run current deficits which are merely tax increases by another name but payable in the future...during someone else’s watch.

We need to tax ourselves at a level that pays for the services we want...and we are not doing that. Instead we are suffocating services from the most vulnerable in our society: children, the disabled and seniors.   WE generate more tax revenue from gambling and lotteries than we do from our energy sector.  There is something seriously wrong with this picture.  We need a fair tax and rent on natural resources but we also need to look at strategic taxes like on carbon to change wasteful behaviours and enable innovation. 

With loose talk of a sales tax expect a push back and nothing to happen until after the next election. Also do not expect an early election if a sales tax emerges as an issue in the public mind.  The mythology around sales tax in Alberta is as misunderstood but as significant as the mythology around the NEP.

IS THE NEXT BALLOT QUESTION DO WE HAVE A SPENDING OR A REVENUE PROBLEM?

The spending issue is a political problem because we get politically sucked into the boom and bust psychology and spend too much in good times and cut too much in tough times.

The 1993 election was all about Alberta’s spending problem.  It was focused on getting rid of our debt and deficit in Alberta.  The election issue between Klein and Decore was between massive cuts or brutal cuts.  Everything else was detail.

What happened is the new Klein government did both massive and brutal cuts - and very rapidly.  Coupled with dramatic commodity price recoveries we took a prudent 25 year debt relief program and fast-tracked every spare and new nickel into debt and deficit and we “solved” it in about 4 years.  That is less than the seven years touted by the Klein government needed to pay off the debt and deficit.  

That Alberta Advantage single minded focus left us with a Billion dollars of unattended and unintended school repairs due to lack of maintenance.  We turned a blind eye to the other infrastructure needs and failed to respond to the population growth we were all touting as part of the Alberta Advantage.  We ended up with serious shortage lack of skilled people like in nurses and other crucial public service areas.

As the economy took off we allowed unrestricted accelerated growth of the oil sands.  Rapid growth became official government policy and the energy sector pulled people away from other economy sectors with much higher wages.  When the political leadership changed and the infrastructure problems were attended to, we taxpayers ended up paying about a 40% premium to deal with the public facilities infrastructure deficit that were ignored.   All the same while we induced human and natural capital deficits by ignoring cumulative environmental impacts and growing social needs.

With a persistent and record level $4.6B projected deficit this fiscal year the question is not if we have a spending or a revenue problem – we have both. That is not something to fight in the next election over either.  So do not expect an early election unless the economy turns around and fixes that fiscal problem before hand.

THE MOOD IS NOT GOOD AND IT IS MORE THAN THE ECONOMY

The political climate in Alberta is beyond grumpy.  Albertans are downright grouchy approaching cantankerous...if they not already there.  Our research shows only 12% of Albertans are seriously on-side about being satisfied with the Stelmach government.  Over half (51%) of us do not think our government listens to us or even cares what we think.  Only 70% of us are committed to improving the future of Alberta while only 48% feel that their personal actions have an impact on making Alberta a better place.   These are not the kind of numbers that indicate a confident, committed engaged citizenry that is part of the tribal myth of Alberta.

There are 45% of us who do not trust any of the current leaders or parties to manage our province’s growth responsibly.  There is a sense that political leadership is lacking and none of the political alternative being offered will be any better.

The MPs in Ottawa are not immune either as we see the Harper government ratchet up for what looks like a federal election.  For example while most Albertans see a need for a federal role in oil sands development, even an increasing role, only 17% Completely Agree or Agree that the Alberta MPs are doing a satisfactory job of representing Alberta’s interest in Ottawa.   Prime Minister Harper is obviously engineering the defeat of his minority government and wants to go to the polls sometime soon.  That means Alberta will want to wait and see what happens federally first and that means an early election in Alberta is less likely.

CONCLUSION:

I do not see a quick provincial election unless the Wildrose Alliance starts to make more political progress beyond its current plateau of support.  The economic times are volatile and the voter is nervous about where the economy is going, here and elsewhere. There are high levels of personal debt and nagging concerns about job security.  The threat of a double dip recession in the States and a very long road to recovery means Alberta has some serious uncertainty ahead.

There is a political leadership void that needs fixing in all the parties, with the exception of the Wildrose and the newly minted leadership of Danielle Smith.  That leadership question will not likely be addressed by any political party until after the next election.  But again, in politics anything can happen and often does.  A caucus revolt over leadership in the PC that would defer any early election call.  I would be very surprised if that happened. Ed Stelmach deserves better than that and should take the party through the next election. 

There is a great sadness amongst many thoughtful Albertans that I speak with on a regular basis over a lack of clear direction and growing political uncertainty in the province.  The sadness is over the obvious squandering of potential and opportunity and emerging possibilities for the Next Alberta.  With all our strengths, opportunities, natural resources and human capital, Alberta can move beyond the boosterism of the best place in the world to becoming the best place for the world. 

If you want a progressive political culture in the Next Alberta register now for RebootAlberta 3.0 at www.rebootalberta.org

Are Progressives to Blame for the Far Right Shift in Politics?

I answer this question from a personal perspective on my other blog Reboot Alberta.  Let me know by comments on that blog what you think.

If you want a progressive political culture in the Next Alberta register now for RebootAlberta 3.0 at www.rebootalberta.org

Glenn Beck is NOT Martin Luther King Jr

It has been refreshing to see the push back in some of the mainstream media in the US mostly CNN and MSNBC against the misleading narrow-minded and politically motivated screed of Fox News especially.

The kind of misleading commentary you see promoted in the ultra-right wings in the States these days is so emblematic of the tensions of the 60 and 70s I lived through in terms of race, violence, the Viet Nam war, Watergate, civil rights movements- and the list goes on.

Well here is another piece of clarifying push back on the Internet.  Glenn Beck is planning to take his hate encouraging screed to speak on the same steps on the same day that Martin Luther King Jr delivered his "I Have a Dream" message of hope and courage.

Glenn Beck is NOT Martin Luther King Jr. NOT by any stretch of the imagination.

http://glennbeckisnotmartinlutherkingjr.com/?utm_source=alternet

We Canadians should not be smug about this stuff.  It is socially, politically and economically rooted from the past Bush-Cheney administration.  That Bush-Cheney political culture and philosophy is alive and well in the brain trusts and back rooms of the Harper Conservatives.  Why else would they waste $2B on G20 "security," arrest hundreds of innocent people in the process, other than intimidation.  And now we see them and stifling an independent gun registry review for 6 months while they proceed to mislead us on the costs and consequences of the gun registry.

These and others and other examples of how badly we are being governed in Canada are not the big lie that Weapons of Mass Destruction Bush-Cheney used to perpetrate the Iraqi War.  It is, however, the same dishonest, disrespectful and corrupted character flaws of politicians who place personal political power above their sworn duty to provide good government.

We need to return to responsible, informed, active citizenship if we are to ensure this kind of creeping and creepy totalitarianism does not become normative political behaviour.  We need to take action and that demands time, attention and courage.  We need to make a commitment to reaffirm our rights and restore our democracy by seeking out servant leaders with goals of the greater good through good governance - not just the gamesmanship and spin of getting and keeping political power we see dominate politics today.

Alberta, like Canada, needs a progressive political alternative to counteract the swing to the right we see happening in the political culture of Alberta and Canada.  If you, as an informed and engaged Albertan, want to see a more progressive political culture in the Next Alberta register now for RebootAlberta 3.0 at www.rebootalberta.org.

Is This Why Democracy is in Trouble?

This is a British video but the principles apply broadly - including we Albertans.  It is worth the 10 minute watch to help us understand why there is some serious shortcoming in our democracy.  The problem is us.  As humans  are actually trying to change ourselves to become better evolved citizens?



Solutions:  Devolve more power to people.  Use citizen juries to deal with major problems at least twice a year.  Publish all the advice politicians get to help them make decisions.

That would enhance integrity, honestly, accountability, transparency and responsibility all the way around.  These are key values that motivate progressives in Alberta society.

We have to use our brains in ways better than we used them before we invented the wheel.

If you want a progressive political culture in the Next Alberta register now for RebootAlberta 3.0 at www.rebootalberta.org

What Do We Want to Achieve in RebootAlberta 3.0?

SOME CONTEXT ON WHY REBOOT 3.0
My sense is people are at different stages in the Reboot Alberta community.  There is an overall impatience for taking action and a feeling that time is wasting if progressives are going to make an impact on the next election.  That frustration is going to be focused by those participating in RebootAlberta 3.0 and then framed in a way that people can take action.

In Reboot 1.0 we discovered that there were other progressive thinking people who were also concerned about the future direction of the province.  We met listened and explored our shared values, ideas and yearnings about being a progressive Albertan.  In Reboot 2.0 we had some research findings about what made a Progressive, what were our priority values and our personal potential as Influentials to use the Reboot Alberta movement to relate to others and help create positive change.

There were four distinct streams formed by the past Reboot events.  Some progress has been made in the political partisan streams for sure.  There is a new progressive political party on the scene as the Renew Alberta people aligned with the Alberta Party and getting organized and moving on it Big Listen project. 

The partisan faithful from the Progressive Conservatives, NDP and Liberal parties have been going through transitions and changes too since we last met.  Even some Wildrose Alliance folks showed up at RebootAlberta 2.0 concerned about farmland conservation and local food.  They found some kindred spirits and worthwhile conversations.

The civil society groups and independent citizen streams progress has not been as easy to monitor. However we can say many in the Reboot movement have stepped up as candidates for municipal and school board elections or have volunteered to support local government candidates.  The not-for-profit groups have been just doing their vital jobs with fewer resources and more demands. It is difficult to see how the folks in those organizations have been able to press for progressive policy changes when they are so strapped for time and spread so thin. 

But then we have RebootAlberta 3.0 where these people can come together to share and consider solutions to their concerns.  They can share the load start working together to create the progressive political culture we want to achieve in the Next Alberta.

WHAT DOES "TAKING ACTION" MEAN ?

The key question is what will accomplish coming out of RebootAlberta 3.0.   The theme is Taking Action and that means first determining what that needs doing as part of the goal.  We have very little time so the focus must be fast and energy will have to be high.  Reboot 3.0 is going to be a process about defining issues, describing successes and determining what needs to be done to win.  We then have to pick out spots and commit to personal action.  We need that to get all the effort mustered on dealing with our issues.  That focus, energy, commitment and action will have a positive impact on the progressive direction of political culture in the Next Alberta.

RebootAlberta 3.0 will provide the place for progressive thinking folks in the Alberta political party, civil society groups, ENGOs, and individuals to define their concerns and work them through to taking action.  This all starts with the insights and efforts of individuals.  That moves to informal collaborative learning circles with others who eventually join in will expand the capacity to reach out to others.  This will reinvigorate the sense of citizenship and rejuvenate progressive Albertans to take back democratic control of the political culture of the province.


The end result is more effective, active and meaningful engagement of individuals as citizens, leaders, members of groups and organizations and even within our families and friends, all working to realize a self-selected worthy goals towards a better Alberta.    

EXPECTED REBOOT 3.0 OUTCOMES:
In Taking Action we will be striving for more than a few goals at Reboot 3.0. It all starts with the individual, then grows to a smaller group who work together and who engage others though their networks and spheres of influence.  Finally they all work towards creating a plan to push and pull on the levers of political power in to realize the changes they desire.  It is all done in the spirit of creating informed, engaged responsible citizenship that wants to achieve progressive democratic principles and good government.

REBOOT GOALS FOR INDIVIDUALS:

We hope coming out of Reboot 3.0 we will see individuals identify concerns.  What need to happen next is for participants to make a personal commitment to take effective action to resolve their issues and add to the progressive voice to the political culture of the Next Alberta.  That personal commitment would include learning about the issue and gathering background information.  Then defining a personal preferred outcome and sharing that with others.

Next is to reach out and gather more support and understanding about the reason for the concern.  We then anticipate some people will take a leadership position in pursuing those outcomes by finding and engaging more to become involved in helping resolve the issue. Finally we expect that people will take personal and collective action to bring attention to the issue to advance the preferred outcome.  This can be done in many ways including through political participation and influencing policy makers.

REBOOT GOALS FOR GROUPS:

In addition to pursuing personal concerns there are some broader concerns that may become theme areas for the wider group of Reboot progressives to pursue.  They will advance on the same citizenship engagement model of defining the concerns, getting informed on the background, designing and agreeing on the preferred outcome.  Then a plan will be designed to reach out to engage and inform other Albertans as they push and pull the political and public policy levers to realize their objective.

GOALS FOR REBOOT ALBERTA GOING FORWARD:

Finally I hope to get some input and ideas on what those in the Reboot community want next from Reboot Alberta itself.  Should it continue as a loose convener of events and a communications conduit?  Should it become more substantial and sustainable as an on-going organization to pursue and promote the idea of creating a progressive political culture in Alberta?  Or is the Reboot Alberta job done if the goals of Reboot 3.0 are realized and civil society, political parties and progressive citizens take up the various causes in their own ways and means?

Does Reboot Alberta grow and reach out to other Progressive and encourage them to engage and become empowered as citizens again?  Do we need a place for Progressive to congregate and share time and ideas or are we comfortable to continue living individually and in our heads?  Where do the resources and leadership come from for this work and what does success look like if there is agreement to continue Reboot?  These are key questions about the direction and destination of any effort to sustain a progressive citizen's movement in Alberta.

CONCLUSIONS: 

It is premature to draw any hard conclusions about Reboot 3.0 but one thing for sure; we should not come to Reboot 3.0 just to talk.  We need to identify issues that are worth the effort and justify our commitment to determine and seek solutions.  We have very little time to make a difference or impact the public policy agenda and even the possible outcomes for the next election and for the Next Alberta. 

We need to find ways to seek out, empower and re-engage other progressive citizens who have opted for non-engagement in democracy.  We need to give them a reason to believe again – even in the face of controls, coercion, fear and resentments we see all too often the current political culture of the province.  

If you want a progressive political culture in the Next Alberta register now for RebootAlberta 3.0 at www.rebootalberta.org.  Dates are Nov 5-6 in Edmonton at the Delta South hotel.  Space is limited and the early bird reduced rate of $110 goes to the first 75 who register.  See you soon.