Does Jim Prentice Need a New Mandate?

The spring 2015 election rumours are rampant amongst the chattering class in Alberta politics.  Of course all the reasons given to go early are pure politics and nothing to do with good governance.

Some reasons for an early election, instead of honouring the legislated fixed election date, is the "new management" under the new Premier needs his own mandate from Albertans.

Other reasons are the oil price decline needs Albertans to go to the polls to provide Prentice with the power to make the "tough choices" (a.k.a. draconian cuts) about programs and to keep taxes low.

Finally I believe the new Premier wants an election to enable him to clean house and get rid of the remaining progressives in his caucus. An election is the fastest way to do that by culling the herd.

A New Man Needs a New Mandate:
Why a new mandate?  Prentice won the PC leadership and consequentially became Premier of all Alberta.  He ran in the context of a very recent ( April 2012) and successful Redford election with a majority government.

He also knowingly inherited the fixed election date period of March 1-May 31 in every fourth calendar year of office.

The PCs have a clear mandate and a majority government elected less than two years before they decided to dump Redford. He inherited a 66 seat majority government elected with 44% of the vote that crushed the WRP momentum.

His own leadership win was "decisive" with 17,963 of the 23,386 of memberships counted.  We know more memberships were sold or given away by the Prentice campaign so there is a cloud over his "win." Not all eligible members were able to vote due to serious and suspicious electronic voting irregularities.

As for the PC Party mandate, Prentice has (or at least had until recently) the overwhelming support of the party executive, the caucus and the party establishment.  The PC caucus members were almost unanimous in their support for Prentice as leader.    

Alberta citizens were able to participate in this leadership selection by simply buying a PC membership (or getting a free one from Prentice's campaign) and voting for any one of three candidates.  

The fact that the general population overwhelmingly choose not to participate in this PC selection process, compared to previous contests, can be seen as indifference to the outcome. It could be seen as a general public acceptance that any of candidates offered could continue governing the province for the rest of the legislated mandate.

What if the low participation rate is because Albertans stayed away from the PC  selection process in protest? Even that clearly means they were prepared to accept the winner as their Premier in the context of the PC 2102 campaign platform and election victory.  

Then consider the dramatic shift in the polling results away from the Wildrose to the PCs since Prentice's victory in September 2014.  This shows Albertans now support his Premiership over the WRP regardless of the Redford legacy.

His recent polling results are at least as good, if not better, than the Redford 44% election support in 2012.  Again evidence that Albertan's do not see the need for a "new mandate" for the "new management" Premier. "He's da man!"

Budget Pressures Due to Oil Prices:
This is hardly a reason for a general election.  In fact it is just the opposite.  We need certainty in governance and leadership in such volatile economic times.  Oil prices started dropping in June of last year, when Prentice was announcing his candidacy.  They became more significant starting in September, when Prentice was selected PC leader.  It is not as if he didn't see this coming.

Prentice is not a new kid on the political block.  He is an experienced and seasoned politician, elected federally in June 2004 until November 2010 when he mysteriously resigned the Harper government.

In that time he served as Harper's Minister of Indian Affairs and Northern Development, Minister of Industry and Minister of the Environment. All vital portfolios and significant experience for dealing with Alberta's policy choices and fiscal plight in the light of falling oil prices.  We don't need him to win an election to prove is political bona fides.

Again his leadership success on October 27th by winning all four by-elections shows Albertans are not ready to dump him or even send him a discouraging word about his leadership...at least not so far.

We need certainty in provincial leadership and management to deal with the pending budget issues.  This is not new to Alberta or Albertans, notwithstanding Prentice's hyperbole to the contrary about the fiscal issues.  We have been down this road before.

Hopefully with Prentice's experience, and others in the recent PC political past, we can avoid making the same policy mistakes of previous resource revenue downturns. Time will tell but in any event oil price volatility is not a reason for an early general election.  

Prentice's Purge of the Progressives:
Prentice has taken the PC party significantly to the right in the political spectrum. This is especially evident with the floor crossing of the majority of the Wildrose caucus.  He has been described by Danielle Smith, the former Wildrose leader and floor-crosser, as the "first Wildrose Premier."  How much more proof do you need of his shift to the right?

The "retirement" of progressives like Hancock and Hughes was allegedly for being too close to Redford.  The demotion of people like Lukaszuk and Griffiths plus the announced retirement of Pastoor, (with others to come?) it is pretty clear the "P" in the PC party is being systemically removed by Prentice.

An early election gives Prentice a way to tell remaining progressives there is no future for them in his government,  He can also give the WRP crossers the chance to try and win nominations as Prentice Conservatives before other inside progressive candidates can get organized.

The other pure political reason for an early election is to kill the rest of the WRP as a political force.  They would not have time to select a new leader with an early election call, in fact may be trying to select a leader in the middle of an election.

That is Harper-esque politics at its lowest.  It is sadly ironic for the WRP to be subjected to such tactics given the past support the enjoyed from the Harper caucus members. The death of the current WRP would be the culmination of Prentice becoming the de facto WRP hard-right Premier of the province.

Change to a Progressive Political Culture:
The centrist Alberta Party, the centre-left Liberals with the leftist NDP do not have the funds or other resources to mount a strong offence against Prentice in the short term. The non-aligned progressives who voted Redford in fear of the WRP are in a dilemma.  The Prentice PCs are clearly no longer destined to be a big-tent party that includes progressives.

The Liberals and NDP are not a preferred progressive alternative choice or they would have done better in the 2012 election and in the October by-elections. The NDP is an Edmonton-based party and the Liberals are in serious internal decline loosing 3 seats in 2012 and with 2 of the current MLAs leaving for federal politics in the next election this year.

The Alberta Party showed they can campaign and do well in the Calgary Elbow by-election coming in a strong second.  However there are no silver medals in politics.  They have a lot of organizing and fund raising to do to be a contender but they are making progress on both fronts.

However, given Prentice is not going to lose the next election, the Alberta Party is a smart parking place for a progressive protest vote against the Prentice Conservatives. Full disclosure: I am on the Provincial Board of the Alberta Party.

What will happen about an early election call is anyone's guess, including Prentice, who says he is keeping the option open. To go early would require the Lt. Gov to call it or for Prentice to call the Legislature back and amend or repeal the fixed election dates law. Integrity, accountability and transparency would suggest the latter course is the better approach, but again, who knows and does Prentice really care about those political values?  

If we do have an early election it will be for purely partisan political reasons and not sound public policy purposes.  Hopefully progressive Albertans will take such self-serving partisanship seriously and judge the "Wildrose Premier" accordingly.

The best way to show displeasure for Prentice opportunism in making such a partisan anti-democratic early election decision is to get out and vote for a new progressive movement.

To my mind that is the Alberta Party.  While it is new it is young, energetic and full of  new ideas and public-interest thinkers.  With proper support, it would legitimately aspire beyond becoming a replacement opposition.  It could and should aspire to become a progressive party capable of offering a viable alternative the first "WRP Premier" approach to the governance of the province.

Time will tell if any of that happens too...but in the true spirit of Don Quixote, I remain faithful to an Alberta Aspiration that is hopeful for her progressive future.

Harper After New Victims

So Eve Adams and Dimiti Soudas are the new "power couple" about to be dropped from the Christmas card list of Prime Minister Harper.

Shades of Helena Gerugis and Rahim Jaffer?

Nasty nasty stuff Mr Prime Minister,  Why are Pierre Poilivere and Rob Anders are still amongst the anointed ones?

Seems like the Harper Cons are falling apart. I expect more retirements and a lot of runaway Harper Con staffers rushing into the bosom of the Wildrose Party in Alberta.

Jim Dinning Releases a Can of Whoop-Ass on PC Party

Wake Up Call is the polite way to describe Jim Dinning's "admonitions" to the elite in the Progressive Conservative Party.

To my mind he is right on in his comments.  The next leader may end up being the Harry Strom equivalent of the PC Party.  Mr Strom was the Social Credit leader at the time when Peter Lougheed captured the new mood of a young Alberta and swept into office in 1971.  I was there and a door-knocker, phone-caller, foot soldier type for the emerging Lougheed government in those days.

Now I smell the democracy of dramatic change in the air again.  The problem is the lack of acceptable choices.  Citizens of Alberta are almost universally disgusted with the PCs.  Most of us are terrified of what the Wildrose would do to Alberta, especially after seeing what their soul mates the Harper Conservatives have done to Canada.

As for the Liberal, they are just too boring to get behind and they seem like a one-man show.  The NDP have been effective opposition parliamentarians but seem just too biased and ideologically focused to grasp the complexity of the next Alberta.

The next Alberta government has to have a servant leader culture capable of governing an comprehensive integrated balance of a prosperous economy, environmental stewardship and social well-being and inclusion in the face of rapid growth and change.

There is god news and bad news for Albertans as they choose their next government, not just the next leader of the PC Party who gets the job temporarily and by default.  The good news is we have a prosperous foreseeable future with some bumps on the way no doubt.  The bad news is that it will not happen by any autopilot public policy approaches.  We will have to create that future ourselves.

Time is now for Albertans to pay attention and take stock of where we are, where we want to go and what it will take from all of use to make the changes needed to get there.  

That still does not answer the question of what are the political options out there for us if not the current crop?  I think the bad news is, it currently does not exist so, once again, just like Peter Lougheed did in the late 1960s early 70s, we have to create the option we want.

For me that is a socially progressive fiscally prudent and environmentally engaged political movement of citizens.  We need a movement of citizens to get behind a group of their fellow citizens who want to serve the public interest through the greater good...with a long term view and not just helping those on "their side" and only up to the next election.

There is the embryo of such a movement as that now in the Alberta Party. Small but serious and all of a sudden growing leaps and bounds as Albertans have started thinking about the real changes they want.  So if you are curious as to if the Alberta Party is for you, and you for it, click on Politicalmatch and take five minutes to check it out. I think you will be glad you did.

Is the Alberta Party Getting Cred?

The Globe and Mail Gary Mason recently wrote an insightful piece on the possibility of enhanced political fortunes of the Alberta Party.  With the shifting attitudes of Albertans of ennui, uncertainty and distrust of the establishment political parties with a well founded fear of the socially conservative Wildrose.  People are looking for an alternative preferred future.

The Alberta Party is becoming just that preferred alternative for socially progressives and fiscally prudent citizens who are looking for some fresh ideas and renewed energy to change the political culture of the province.

Young, informed engaged citizens who want a different future for themselves and future generations are leading this values based political shift. Progress in Alberta for these folks must be more responsible and sustainable than the current offerings of the established left-versus-right hyper-partisanship inherent in the current politics of the province.

With the PCs in a leadership campaign, it is a good time to think about what kind of Alberta you want and what you intend to do to achieve it. There will be lots of change talk in the next 4 to 6 months.  There always is in political campaign, including leadership races.

Can real change happen in ways we want and need to at least restore a civil polity that is focused on public interest not just winning or preserving political power.  Can we trust the current governing party and the wannabe opposition parties to create a truly caring, capable and statesmanship approach to governing?

Must we settle for the Wildrose, the so-called "only viable alternative" in an extremely socially conservative, government killing, narrow-minded Alberta version of the American Republicans?

It's time for change and change is in the air. It will not happen by accident.  It must be created by citizens who get engaged, get informed and get clarity about what they want from government and governance.  I think it's time to create a viable refreshing and authentically progressive political alternative to all the current batch of status quo parties.

For me that means its time to give the Alberta Party a chance to change things for a positive and progressive Alberta for all of us.

If you are interested in a discussion on the issues and values around what Alberta could and should look for in political leadership check out my other blog at www.oilsandsken.com

Dave Hancock: A Good Man Who Comes to the Aid of the Party

Dave Hancock was recently selected by the PC Caucus to be the interim leader of the party pending the outcome of the forthcoming leadership contest.  This may be the smartest thing they have done in the past week or so.

Dave is Mr. Social Progressive & Fiscal Conservative amongst Alberta's elected politicians. He has been involved in the party from his youth at the University of Alberta.  I met him first when we both worked on the Joe Clark leadership of the federal PC in 1976.  He served as President as established the Statement of Principles for the party that defined the progressive aspects of the PC party.

Elected initially in 1997 he has been a perpetually successful election performer often winning with the largest margins in the province. He has served in a wide array of portfolios and been Deputy Premier more than once. He has been the deep thinker and strategy guy in the PC caucus and Cabinet for years.  A cerebral quality not often appreciated or respected by the Reform/Alliance leaning "common sense" MLAs.

He pursued the leadership in 2006 when Dinning and Morton were beat by Stelmach. I was very involved in his campaign helping to develop the campaign platform with him and others. Knowing he would not make the first ballot cut he chose to visibly support Stelmach before the first votes were counted.  Many think that move was politically courageous.  It was but it was also a strong signal to his supporters and others in the progressive branch of the party they ought to rally behind Stelmach.  Dave correctly saw Stelmach as the best way to update the progressive policies of the party beyond the Klein years.  It worked...for awhile.

Dave's diligence and dedication will ensure the business of government keeps going aligned with the PC party agenda set out in the recent Throne Speech and Budget.  The administration will be given the respect and room to do their jobs, at least until the next leader comes in.  I expect under Dave's interim watch there will be some significant but quiet execution of the policy and programs that have been passed but also passed over pending for implementation.  I say this given his strong affirmation that Bill 45 and 46 are the "law" and they will be implemented. It is a double-edged sword for progressives.

So don't expect flash and dash from Dave.  Do expect a steady hand on the tiller and a mature respect for the caucus and Cabinet members who are still around to govern given the leadership campaign activities that will distract them.

He can't stop the internal caucus dissent, that is not his job.  He will also have to deftly handle the natural divisiveness inherent in the thrust and parry of the leadership race.  He will run the province professionally while the party participants are away campaigning and hoping to find a suitable leader to appeal to the rest of Alberta.

This must be a moment of pride and humility for Dave as he get the trust and respect of the Caucus and the PC Party as interim leader.  It also has to be bittersweet as he serves as the bridesmaid and not not as the bride.  Such is life.  Such is politics.  Such is democracy.