Fellow Blogger Will McBeath’s (Noise From the Right) recent posting gives me a swift kick in the “Rebut.” Is Alberta more Progressive or Conservative and where are we going anyway? His answer: Alberta is on its way to a Conservative Heaven. I presume with a hand basket that is chock full of Alberta-only money.
He gives us real numbers on real election results to prove his thesis. He admits to some issues with his earlier numbers explaining them to be “hyperbole to illustrate my point.” Ah yes lies, damn lies and statistics.
I applaud Will’s analysis and accept its accuracy on faith because I trust him. I don’t need to double check the data. Because, frankly, the data is mere fact! In politics, facts, while interesting are almost entirely irrelevant. In politics it is more about how you frame the issues and how you activate value drivers about what people believe to be important. That makes the difference in how a citizen decides who to trust with his or her vote.
Election results taken out of context are essentially meaningless stats. The rational positivists really believe tomorrow will reflect yesterday and the world is static and people are predictable. Any student of human nature knows just how wrong that is.
So I don’t argue with Will’s data on past election results. I say so what! Does it matter? What difference do the past stats make in today’s reality? Trends are not destiny. I do know that campaigns matter and they do make a difference. For example in 2004 the Liberals convinced the voting public that Harper was “scary” based on comments coming from his ultra-conservative far-right religious supporters. Harper lost. Value drivers, not data made the difference. In the 2006 election Harper engineered a no-confidence vote and convinced those people who made him “scary” to keep quiet during the campaign. They did. This campaign had Gomery in full bloom and the RCMP publicly announcing investigations on an alleged leak about something called Income Trusts. The values drives kick in and the new “non-scary” Harper gets to be PM.
The moral of the story? Campaigns matter. Just ask Harper. Context is king. Kings are made by context. Counting old ballots is not context is just a bunch of old data. Nice work “Noise” in collecting the data - but in reality, it signifies nothing.
"In politics, facts, while interesting are almost entirely irrelevant."
ReplyDeleteThis is why, you sir, are a Liberal.
In the classic sense of the word, I am a liberal. But then "sir," who might YOU be? More bravado and anonymity in the blogosphere.
ReplyDeleteWhy are all you people so afraid to be identified. Nothing you say is of any legal consequence and if it were, you ought not to say it anyway.
I care less "sir" of what your political label might be and care more as to who you are...incuding as a person.
Or are you proving my point that such facts as your name is "interesting but of little relevance" in expressing your political beliefs.
OR are you scared of something or someone in authority. So hit and run undercover commentaty is the only safe way for you to exercise your "freedom" of speech. Sad and scary don't you think?
Come out of the shadows into the sunlight of free speech. I asked the same disclosure of identity of a blogger "Fromthemountains" over a month ago...seem they have disappeared from the realm since.
Strange!
Ken –
ReplyDeleteI think Will’s post highlights the dangers of inexperienced people playing with statistics – they can easily do more damage than good. As I suggested in a comment on his blog, he manipulates the data to support the conclusion he is seeking, instead of using data to form an opinion. But, this often happens when then opinion is already preconceived, and data (any data) is used to support the claim.
The main weakness of Will’s argument is that he assumes causality, without actually proving it. His claim that because CPC in the last election achieved 500,000 more votes than the PC party of Alberta then, people want a more right-wing government isn’t supported by facts. The only fact is that 500,000 more people voted for CPC than PC provincially. We could hypothesize all day why this is the case:
- Albertans were fed up with a corrupt federal government, and wanted a change in government (something not as likely with a provincial election)
- It is easier to vote against something than for something (I don’t know what I want, but I know what I don’t want)
- People deem it is more important to vote federally than provincially
- People liked the CPC commercials more than the PC Alberta commercials
Statistics, if used properly, can be a powerful tool to help shape opinion and support decisions. But, if it abused can be harmful. Will needs to stop abusing statistics.
Warm regards,
TG from Texas