UPDATE DRUMMHELLEER-STETTLER AT 9:51 - with 67 of 71 polls in - PCs with 3896. Liberals move into second with 947 and Socreds in third with 800. Decisive PC victory!
UPDATE CALGARY ELBOW AT 9:50 with 75 of 77 polls in - Liberals 4534, PCs 3793 and Greens still a distant third.
By-election results – unofficial – Drumheller-Stettler – Jack Hayden has little problem retaining this set for Ed Stelmach. With 45 of 71 polls reporting as at 21:23 pm the PC have 2693 votes for 59%. The Social Credit has 526 votes for 12% and the Liberals are in third place with 518 votes for 12%.
In Calgary Elbow is decided but not as decisive a slap to Ed Stelmach as many thought it would be. With 72 of 77 polls in at 21:36 pm the Liberals have 45% of the vote compared to 38% for the PCs each with 4267 and 3589 votes respectively. The Greens (563 votes) came in third beating out the Alliance (431 votes) and the NDP (329 votes).
Turn out seems to be depressingly small in each case.
In Calgary Elbow is decided but not as decisive a slap to Ed Stelmach as many thought it would be. With 72 of 77 polls in at 21:36 pm the Liberals have 45% of the vote compared to 38% for the PCs each with 4267 and 3589 votes respectively. The Greens (563 votes) came in third beating out the Alliance (431 votes) and the NDP (329 votes).
Turn out seems to be depressingly small in each case.
Ken, I agree that the Calgary result is not a slap to anyone. Everyone in Alberta was smelling blood in this by-election. But the only people who mattered were so uninterested they stayed home in droves. Doesn't sound like they're too upset with anything.
ReplyDeleteYes mic 2 months of wall-to-wall Bronco-ridin' his back and the screaming and repeating Herald headlines chewing on Stelmach's butt and the Libs win. Ok - good for them.
ReplyDeleteBut this is not a decisive win that amounts to "Edferendum" on Stelmach's leadership as the Calgary pundits were saying it was going to be.
Calgary is clearly not happy but not necessarily for the reasons the media and chattering classes down there are say.
Stelmach has work to do and this Elbow result is a wake up call. But I see the PCs waking up. Look at the tobacco control Bill introduced today showing some real change in direction and decisiveness.
The decision today to tell Edmonton and regional municipalities, including some in his own constituency, to smarten up and get collaborating OR he will step in and decide a few things for them...I like that.
Nice attempt at spin. Let's analyze this result. Ralph Klien's former riding, in Calgary, the most conservative city in the country, just elected a Liberal. The Oberg budget has contributed to the Tories support dropping by 20% in Calgary. This is a time of change in Alberta socially, economically and politically. When voters in urban Alberta look at the Tory cabinet they see a rural based cabinet that doesn't understand their needs. Ed Stelmach is doing a great job of exposing and exasperating the existing cleavage between rural and urban that the Tories have managed to straddle for so long. Voters in urban areas get that. They understand that Stelmach is the rural folks candidate, but that he doesn't have the mindset to grapple the problems of this modern, urban society. The next election is going to be the most interesting election in Alberta in 35 years.
ReplyDeleteAP is right. This post here is just a sorry and sad attempt at saving Stelmach's "honour". Give it up, Ken. We know you're getting paid by your pal Dave "The Clown" Hancock, but please keep it real. OK?
ReplyDeleteKen,
ReplyDeleteI have to agree that this is a serious wake-up call to our current government. I have felt for a while now that the Stelmach government has been a bit too complacent in it's approach to what I call the "everymans" concerns.
When does true leadership start to take hold? Should we wait until th everyman is convinced that the Libs are our best voice for them?
These are my thoughts on today's by-election...
http://www.richfulllife.ca/my_weblog/2007/06/liberals_are_ro.html
Shirley Mclellan used to win with 70% of the vote. Now her successor wins by 52%. Still a win but a 20% shift is significant. Also surprising is that 14% of bedrock Tory Alberta (the safe seat that Getty ran to) voted Liberal. That is a seismic shift.
ReplyDeleteThe Tories losing the former premier's seat after holding it for 36 years is also a sign of the times and the Tories loss of power.
Stelmach has only been in power 7 months. It is unfathomable that he is complacent and out of ideas already. I guess 14 years at the cabinet table for Stelmach has harmed his desire to innovate.
I admire your attempt to spin this but you've been dealt a very weal hand.
Brian Heninger may have harmed himself with a few verbal miss-steps. But he was also fighting an uphill battle. The MSM kept a constant Dresden-style bombardment on the Tories in Calgary in the weeks leading up to the election, with the Mayor a very vocal ally in the assault. For example, take a good look at some of the headline copy appearing in the Herald. The headlines often mis-represent the article they lead, and sound invariably worse than what the actual reporter has written. But what do you expect from a CanWest publication? The Aspers are pretty openly using their mouthpieces to advance a Liberal agenda. This even carries over to another arm: GlobalTV Calgary, which is quickly moving into the realm of tabloid journalism.
ReplyDeleteAs a PC, I am proud that Brian took the high road in his remarks following the election loss. He didn't cop out and just blame the Premier. If he runs again, I'll be there to volunteer.
"When voters in urban Alberta look at the Tory cabinet they see a rural based cabinet that doesn't understand their needs."
ReplyDeleteI was very disappointed with the low voter turnout. With participation rates at 33%, meaning 19,000 people stayed home that day and couldn't even be bothered to vote. I know it was only a by-election and people might not be too terribly engaged, but I think it illustrates a different kind of challenge than we've been thinking.
I think this reflects the fact that the party "has not changed" enough when Stelmach was elected as leader. If this continues into the general election, there will likely be a new leadership race.
ReplyDeleteWith respect to the previous anonymous comment (11:51am), I disagree. The party has changed... or at the very least has begun to change. Under the previous administration, the party was ruled as somewhat of a fiefdom. What the leader wanted, he got - both in government caucus and in approval/denial of party member initiatives. This situation has changed. A more consensus-oriented approach has evolved, and it remains to be seen whether the electorate will recognize and reward it. Remember, the new leader has been in place for only 6 months.
ReplyDeleteI don't doubt that the knives would be out if there was a poor showing in the next general election. No party worth belonging to (defined as having some probability of forming a government) is without that unfortunate characteristic. Witness the parade of Alberta Liberal Party leaders that preceded Kevin Taft. Or the Federal Conservatives or Liberals or NDP, where election misfortunes precipitated a change at the helm.
Some (mistakenly) try to pigeon-hole the Premier as having some rural-only mentality. And this perception may have cost votes in Calgary-Elbow. But the absolute thrashing that all contenders got in Drumheller would suggest the party still has a very strong base underneath it. The Alliance was absolutely destroyed there, and they were the great hope of previously disenchanted small-c conservatives. If the current government can communicate its committment to Calgary, and gain traction in the Forgotten City (i.e. Edmonton under Klein), the Liberals have an even chance of losing seats in the next election, as much as gaining them. I don't doubt that the Liberals can gain in urban centres, but their negative comments to date about rural cabinet members will not be quickly forgotten by those who happen to live outside of Calgary and Edmonton.
My guess is that the Alliance is being destroyed due to the great representation their members are receiving from Ted Morton - good on Stelmach to give him a Minister's position.
ReplyDeleteDespite Ken's illergic reaction, Morton has been doing a great job at his post and I'm sure he conveys strongly conservative viewpoints at the cabinet table.
eric - we are agreeing again. Ted Morton is doing a terrific job in SRD. I am not surprised. He is a very competent person.
ReplyDeleteI just totally disagree on his view of policy prioirties and how he sees Alberta, especially our place and relationship to Canada.
AP and Werner - Calgary is not the most conservative city in Canada, as least not on a social values scale...Alberta is not the most conservative province in Canada on social values scales.
ReplyDeleteThe people of Saskatchewan and Manitoba more socially conservative than Albertans according to some Environics studies…what party you elect is not a test of how conservative a city is.
Werner - you are incorrect - Hancock is not paying me on the tobacco control issues. I am being paid by the Campaign for a Smoke Free Alberta, a group of 15 professional (like the AMA and Pharmacists, and Dental Hygienists) health groups (like the Canadian Cancer Society, Lung Association) and some others.
As for Rural - Urban split - the Cabinet selection indicated that as a potential conclusion. However the fact that Stelmach order a regional management growth strategy be developed for the Edmonton region goes a long way to disprove that claim that he favours the rural over the urban. I posted on this yesterday as well.
Liberals won Elbow fair and square because more Calgarians in that constituency thought that was in their best interest. They should be congratulated.
The voters in Elbow who showed up, sent a message to the PCs to get more engaged in Calgary's issues and needs - particularly surrounding growth (Ed's just done that in Edmonton in spades). It tells the Liberals “here is a chance to show us if you ‘get’ Calgary and if you are worthy of Calgary’s consent to govern” or are you just an on-going Edmonton Backlash anti-Klein phenomenon.
The by-election was not a conclusive rejection or acceptance of either party but more of an “Ok Ed and Kevin, now show me how you are going to help Calgary with its problems and it potentials.” Time will tell who learns this lesson better - Stelmach or Taft.
Again this shows democracy is working when citizens engage and participate the end result is usually very good all things considered.
This wasn't a shock result this was a continuation of a trend line that was seen in 2004 when the Tories lost three seats in Calgary and squeaked by in others. PCs have been telling themselves they are facing a wakeup call for years and are still snoozing.
ReplyDeleteI explore the Calgary Elbow results more fully here, and I quote from one of your comments to one of my other posts Ken.
I admire the quixotic effort to reform the Tories from within and remind your party of the 'Progressive' in their name - but I think the former president of your youth wing had it right - too little too late.
"PC Alberta will continue its slow death march, to the beat of a rural drum and tired, stale policies."
-outgoing PC Youth president David McColl
Morning Cliff - I read your post and quoting one of my earlier posts on the need for the PC party to change. You have some very good insights.
ReplyDeleteI agree with your analysis the Elbow result is just a continuation of the trend that started in 2004.
I have been a quixotic PROGRESSIVE Conservative for many years...that is the consequence of being a PC in Edmonton. Calgary PCs are going to have to win the next election by earning their seats on thier own merits and campaign abilities not just riding on Klein's coattails. Calgary MLA Neil Brown said this too in the media today. That is a a good thing.
As for David McColl I can tell from comments made while moderating a youth in politics panel at the recent PC AGM that he does not speak for the youth wing of the party.
I am looking forward to watching the civic election in Calgary this fall. Will Calgarians want to be represented by a whiny sniveling mayor who has done no innovative planning.
ReplyDeleteJust drive in Calgary and then go to Edmonton. You will be impressed at how they have planned over the last few years to make a city that is easy to move around in and in and out of.
The conniving of Bronconnier may bite him hard on the ass. I am quite embarassed to see him represent Calgary at all.
I also think Stelmach wanted to see some changes in people that represent PC's in Calgary before putting them on his cabinet. I don't think having a Klien shadow cabinet would have done his direction any good. You don't get a reputation of Honest Ed and not deserve it.
"As for David McColl I can tell from comments made while moderating a youth in politics panel at the recent PC AGM that he does not speak for the youth wing of the party."
ReplyDeleteAnd yet the entire 9 member executive of the Tory Youth - presumably all voted for by the Tory youth wing - joined him in resigning en masse.
Hmmmm.
Cliff - and an entirely new group of youth came in to take over...don't jump to conclusions.
ReplyDelete