Christmas in Kandahar

Better not pout
Better not cry
Better not shout
I’m telling you why

Santa Claus is coming to town.

(Are we clear on that???)

This picture sure sends out a mixed signal.

Stelmach is "Da Man!"

A new Ipsos Reid poll shows Albertans are on side with “Steady Eddie” big time. Interestingly the field work was done over a week (December 13 to 19) that included the Cabinet announcement on December 15 and the post-announcement reaction time. The lack of balance and representation of the new Cabinet seems to be an issue for the chattering classes only.

A 76% approval rating on the PC’s choosing Stelmach with 33% rating the outcome as “very good.” Expectations are high too, in that 78% are confident that he will be an effective Premier. High praise and higher expectations means the new Alberta government has to deliver!

As for decided voters, the Stelmach led PC’s get a 10 point bounce to 68% of decided voters taking support away from the Liberals and NPD in equal amounts of 4% each. With the NDP at 6% they are dangerously close to being replaced by the Greens as the third party.

The news release highlights the delivery issue incorrectly. It says “Few (17%) Want to See Stelmach Make Major Changes” implying a stay the course approach to governance and NOT make substantial changes. A deeper dip into the data shows just the opposite. In fact there is an appetite for change. Only 8% who want “no real changes.” Moderate change is supported by 58% and minor change is in at 20%. We are talking 90% what some kind of “real change” here and we are only quibbling as to the degree and depth of that change. We voted for change and we want it!

The divided province seems to be more mythical than factual too. In the “good choice” question, 72% of Calgarians and 78% of southern Albertans agree Stelmach was a good choice. Edmonton is really behind Stelmach with an 81% approval rating. The confidence level over Stelmach being an effective Premier is between 79% and 85% all over Alberta and even Calgary is 70% confident and 22% not confident. Still and all, these are impressive numbers and minor differences in the big scheme of things.

Party support into an immediate election (hypothetical at best) is a blow out for the Progressive Conservatives. The Alberta Alliance Party is even behind the Greens in support so the far right social conservative firewall agenda is the Monty Python “dead parrot” in the new Alberta political reality.

Overall the Greens are at 4% and the NDP at 6% and strongest in Edmonton and the North, where they are tied with the NDP. As the environment has moved and solidified as the #1 Alberta policy issue, the NDP are going to be gasping for political relevance in the eyes of Albertans next election.

Why the Snobbery?

This is going to be a very interesting Cabinet Premier Stelmach has crafted. I think people are already lowering their expectations of this Cabinet based on evaluation measurements that no longer really apply to modern governance roles and responsibilities.

We live in an intensely networked relational world that is more horizontal, competitive, connected and faster moving than ever before. Our social cohesion is breaking down as we are all working too much, too fast doing old style things for less and less marginal returns. Smarter working methods are being trumped by more of the same old even though we know that we can’t compete with the traditional models any more. Individual stresses along with community and family breakdown are all rising as a result.

The growing gap between rich and poor, have and have not, is especially troubling within Canada and internationally between the developed and developing world. The level of interdependence of all humanity is something very new as well. This is especially dramatic as we consider the consequences of our individual and collective behaviours as we share in the abusing the planet’s ecosystems. It may be foolish to some to be the first to change - but it is foolhardy in the extreme not to change at all.

So the new Stelmach Cabinet blog comments I am reading seems to me to be using old social scales and images to decide who should exercise authority and who is worthy of respect as we "evaluate the appropriateness" of the people in the Stelmach Cabinet.

In today’s world reality I am not interested in "expert" leaders or professionally packaged politicians who have had all the humanity media trained out of them. I don’t think the only goal of politics is winning the next election, although I acknowledge the importance of that to the candidates themselves.

I want curious, conscientious, caring, generous souls who like to laugh and have open minds and huge open hearts with a respect for differences and who can thrive on complexity who are interested in new ideas and open debate. Believe me that is not your “average Joe” but it could be, at least at another level of appreciation and understanding.

That being "comfortable in your own skin" sense of self and personal value set does not automatically emerge from a post-secondary education. Character gets taught in communities and in families and in dealing with others and in growing up and learning from ones life experiences. I am content to leave the professional job of government to the bureaucracy and the experts. I want politicians with humanity, humility, decency and honesty as their core expertise, skills and qualifications.

The politician’s role is about creating the conditions and the opportunities for synergies to emerge to help us all to improve our lives but in ways that are in harmony with each other and with nature. It is about the quality of the character and the compassion of the individuals that make for the best politicians. It is not all about the letters after their names or the pedigree of their parentage or the size of their “estates.”

It is more fundamental than that. Successful politician are those with the wisdom to help people to get stuff done - mostly for them selves, regardless of individual circumstances. Successful politicians are those individuals who are able to be them selves on purpose and at all times and in all situations. Successful politicians are those individuals who are “self-made” but only through the mutual benefits they created and enjoyed of, with and for other people.

Based on my criteria for success in politics, the most successful politician I ever met had a university degree but her self image was that of a farmer. She was only ever elected as a local school trustee. The exercise of pure political power was never her modus operandi. Her personal influence on people’s lives in the province however was enormous. I’ve never met anyone who did not love and respect everything this farmer cum politician stood for - even if they had never met her personally.

I am talking about Lois Hole. I wonder if we would be getting the same kind of veiled snobbery I see in some of the MSM and blogger-fodder if she was a new “no name” farmer member of Ed Stelmach’s Cabinet?

Ray Danyluk and Rural-Urban Issues

I am seeing some growing interest and serious concern being expressed over the rural-urban representation in the Stelmach Cabinet, especially with Edmonton having only one seat and Calgary with three seats.

This is being expressed as concern over the growth pressure and public infrastructure needs in the cities, not just Edmonton and Calgary, but the discussion always seems to start there. The tensions between midsized cities and towns and the surrounding regions is also a major urban-rural concern that is all over Alberta.

The new Minister of Municipal Affairs and Housing, the Honourable Ray Danyluk, will be seized with this set of challenges. I have worked with Ray Danyluk on some growth pressures and issues when he was Chair of the Northern Alberta Development Council. We also did some work with the Alberta Forest Products Association on the forest industry’s social license to operate and had plenty to do with Ray as NADC Chair.

I am very confident in his skills and impressed with his experience in retail politics and local government. I think he will be a star Minister in the Stelmach Cabinet and government.

I also know he will find ways to be sure the cities get to know the issues and concerns of rural people and how the relationship is one of interdependence and mutuality. Rural people have a familiarity with urban issues because they watch our television stations, listen to our radio stations and read our newspapers. They constantly visit and do business in the urban centres. On the other hand, the knowledge city folks have about the rural areas is abysmally low. This is a problem.

My buddy Les Brost and his business partner Jerome Martin have done some good work in this problem area. If you are interested in leaning more, start with reading this report they did. That is a start but don’t be afraid to learn more about rural Alberta issues and concerns. It will make for a stronger province the more we learn about each other.

Beyond Dancin' With Those Who "Brung Ya!"

I think this Stelmach Cabinet is both non-conformist and counterintuitive. It is neither rebellious nor vengeful as some might first think. It is very clearly based on Ed Stelmach being serious about achieving his campaign goals. He is aligning with those who share his values and his principles. While it is also very much about dancing with those who “brung ya!” it is also profoundly much more than that. It is real change!

Ed is on a mission, and has been ever since he entered the leadership contest. He has clearly stated his mission, particularly for those who were prepared to listen during the campaign. He knows what he wants to accomplish and he has gathered like-minded people around him throughout this leadership campaign to serve those ends.

This new smaller Cabinet, governance restructuring and recent set of Cabinet appointments is an Ed Stelmach set of practical choices to help him get the leadership job done that he has set out for himself…plain and simple.

There are some practical political compromise appointments here and there, but in a tight race that has to be expected and respected.

How will this group work together? Can this group deliver? Will there be unity and allegiance and alignment to Ed’s ends? Who can tell! But I can tell you one thing; it is going to be very different and very interesting.

As Winston Churchill said:

“How little can we foresee the consequences either of wise or unwise action, of virtue or of malice. Without this measureless and perpetual uncertainty, the drama of human life would be destroyed.”

If you can’t hold paradox and uncertainty comfortably in the palm of your hand and not seek to resolve them instantly, you better start to learn that skill. Paradox and uncertainty is going to the foundational reality for the new Alberta. I am curious to see how this new set of decision makers, directions setters and destination designers do in the “drama of human life” that is our new Alberta.

As for me, I am fascinated and full of anticipation. I can’t wait to see how the new Alberta narrative under the Stelmach leadership will emerge and evolve. My sense it will be somewhere between W.O. Mitchell and Tom Robbins.