Some Speculation on Stelmach's First Alberta Throne Speech

Alberta’s new Premier Ed Stelmach gets to put his fingerprints all over the Alberta government in his first Throne Speech this afternoon. I will do a review and tonight on the speech itself.

I expect there will be a much more activist Alberta government than has been the case for the past five years of the Klein regime, other than Klein’s penchant for record levels of unbudgeted spending.

What can we expect then? Here are my guesses. The environment will be predominant including a commitment to new GHG emission standards for industry…I bet there will be legislated absolute limits not just volunteer intensity targets. Expect a fed-prov and industry collaboration on a new pipeline to transport captured CO2 and a major sequestration initiative. Mountain Pine Beetle is a new concern that can have devastating impacts on the boreal forest in Alberta so I expect it will get some very serious attention and resources to mitigate and adapt to the new reality.

The social agenda will be important too. I hope for a reference to support for a province wide smoking ban in public and workplaces will be referenced. The social services sector is in dire straits, especially the not-for-profit and private agencies. They can’t recruit, retain and trains staff to meet demands in the full range of needs form day care, children’s services, long term care and disability services. More money to raise wage levels and show a long term commitment to community based delivery of services needs to be identified in the Throne Speech.

A commitment to new technology and innovation supports will be highlighted with some of the surplus funds being dedicated to long term approaches through current and hopefully some new endowment funds.

Health will shift to an emphasis on wellness and prevention and restructuring toward better outcomes.

A new municipal funding model and a more mature intergovernmental relationship between communities and the province will be heralded based on the $1.4B on fresh funds into the infrastructure needs. An aggressive immigration policy to deal with the labour shortage is needed and will have a political commitment from Stelmach.

In summary – I expect an emphasis to show concern over managing growth but not by interfering in the marketplace. Expect to see a new relationship with industry in dealing with the environment in a planned and strategic basis, new money to deal with the public facilities infrastructure deficit at the municipal level mostly but not exclusively. I see a new commitment to dealing with the realization we also have a serious social infrastructure deficit now too that demands more money but also a new relationship with government to deal with problems.

The new Alberta as the nation's economic powerhouse with the related environmental challenges plus the consequences of growth on peoples lives will make for an interesting place to watch and wonder about. It will also be a most interesting place to govern. The next ten years of government dealing with change and growth will make the last ten years of a debt and deficit government look like child's play.

Alberta Is Expected to Do Better on Emissions

Let's Make Alberta Obey!
Another new Ipsos Reid poll begs some interesting questions. We see 68% of Canadians want stricter emission standards for the oil and gas industry in Alberta despite it resulting in “significant increased costs.”

The question is a tad loaded but that is not the big deal. What is a “significant increased cost” mean to Canadians? What will this apply to beyond the obvious of gasoline, home heating oil, and increased airfares to name a few. How much tolerance is there for significance? Is a tripling or quadrupling of costs acceptable? Are those cost burdens necessary to achieve the GHG reductions needed?

What does “stricter emission standards” mean? Could a lessen overall fossil fuel production and therefore less energy? We have seen supply problem for gasoline in the East recently. Perhaps a formal rationing of gasoline where the population is the highest and the densest should be part of the solution.

This question sets up the old paradigm that the environment and the economy are mutually exclusive and in a zero sum game. What is “good” for one has to be “bad” for the other.

We need to revisit this mistaken belief and understand we can have a sustainable economy with enhanced environmental outcomes and do so in a profitable capitalist system based on stewardship as a basis of profitability.

We need some serious research into jsut what the tolerance for GHG emissions and addtional costs for people means to them. What are the value tradeoffs here? Are we on a susatainable course when we find out what this really means?

"I Think I'll Go Out To Alberta, Weather's Good There in the Fall."
The other recent Ipsos Reid poll says about a quarter of all Canadians would move to Alberta for a 25% pay increase. Am I the only one to see the irony in this attitude? Some advice – we welcome you in Alberta if you have a trade or other skill set - and happen to also be a turtle. If you are not bringing your own house it is tough to survive. We are building houses as fast as we can in Alberta but not fast enough…and prices are still soaring.

Blogs Wary of Harper Majority - Polls Are Back to a Con-Lib Tie

The level of analysis and the conversation on the Blogs about the implications and complications of a Harper majority government are showing this new medium at its best.

There are so many great postings and rich and enlightening comment threads on this issue I hesitate to do much by visit other sites and watch it unfold.

I recommend the Prairie Wrangler and Far and Wide as good places to start but wander around the Blogs and make up you own mind about the wisdom of a Harper majority.

The polls of late have been generating more heat than light. The Decima “on-line poll” – gave the Harper Cons a substantial lead and the Dion Libs a sobering sense of sliding. Looking to any sign of a trend or momentum the MSM and right wing Blogs jumped all over this. Speculation over an early election bubbled to the top again. We really need to look seriously at what is happening in the March 19 Budget and the March 26 Quebec election before anyone can really make any strategic decisions about the timing and wisdom of any election call.

In the meantime, I hope Decima made some serious attempt to cull and categorize their on-line poll participants to be reflective Canada in terms of the regional population distributions, gender, education income and all other traditional criteria. I am a big fan of on-line surveys but they are nor necessarily reflective of the collective wisdom of the country. They have a more serious purpose but that is a subject for another posting some other time.

New Poll Shows Cons and Libs Back at a Statistical Tie:
Ipsos Reid is out with a new poll that puts the major parties back in a statistical tie. The context of this poll is the Conservative negative ads about Dion are gone, the Quebec election is on and Harper is buying votes in Ontario. Key findings from this poll – beyond the statistical tie are the Cons still stuck at 36% as at Election night and Dion is up 2% now that the negative ads are off the air.

In Quebec the Dion Liberals are up 4 points (at 29%) and the Harper Cons are down 3% (at 18%) even with the gifts and fawning Harper has been doing for Charest. Even in Alberta Harper is down 6 points but still at a commanding total of 55% support.

Not many undecided folks overall but the largest concentration was in Sask/Man at 18% and Ontario at 15% undecided, refused or didn’t know how they would vote.

Campaigns matter and these various poll results taken when there is no election going on are like mood rings. The “colours” of the opinions and the moods of the participants can change very quickly - but they are not decisive. That will not happen until there is a real election happening.

All we have now is a fluid punditry, a volatile voter base and a voluble blogisphere. Not the stuff to risk an election over yet.

Are You Ready For a Harper Majority Government Next Time?

I have been running these "survey" questions on this Blog for a few months now. I call them survey questions because they are not scientific and not even close to the reliability of the results you would get from scientific polling.

What the blog survey shows is the sentiment of a group of self-organizing readers of this site about the various questions I pose from time to time. I sense there is a tend toward a decentralizing and fragmenting diverse range of opinions in society today. That said, engaged and influential people are also now coalescing, clustering and becoming activated around issues of importance to them.

All of this shifting and clustering gets easier and amplified by the Internet through Blogs, Chat rooms, Discussion Forums, sites like My Space and so forth. These Blog based survey questions may show that this self-organizing clustering around an issue is actually happening...or not! Could be just plain fun.

So I wondered if my readers are ready to support and accept a Harper Conservative majority government? Hence the "survey" question posted now. With the recent surge of Harper's support in the real polls and a possibility of an election in the offing, the question has definite currency.

One source says we are ready to accept a Harper Conservative majority government. From a recent SES poll, Nik Nanos finds we are comfortable or somewhat comfortable with that possibility. Nation wide 55% are ready for that possibility versus 45% who are not. The SES results show Harper has gained momentum for a majority government especially in Quebec and in the West, but the idea has lost support in the East and Ontario.

What do you think? Is the test drive of the Harper government over? Are Canadians now ready to "buy" the Conservative Party approach to governance and give Harper a majority in the next election?

Something’s Happening Here!

Pubic Interest Alberta is at it again. They have done some very interesting work on education and the challenges of low income levels that many have to cope with in Alberta.

Now they are digging into the democratic deficit issues in the province. I urge you to check out their site especially the topic of “Democratic Renewal.” They are holding pubic meetings on the concerns over how well our democracy is functioning in Alberta. It will be worth your time to take an evening and engage with some fellow citizens on the health of our democracy.

We have to do something to overcome the serious cynicism of the citizenry (and to annihilate abstract alliteration ;-). PIA is a group of interested citizens who are volunteering time and talent to create a place and space for this important conversation to happen. I urge you to take advantage of the opportunity.

I will be video taping an interview with University of Alberta Political Scientist, Dr. Steve Patten and former Alberta Teachers Association President, Larry Booi about this initiative this coming week. The videos will be posted on Policy Channel later next week at http://www.policychannel.com/.