Clint Dunford Decides to Pack it In

Thanks to Daveberta for bring to my attention the Clint Dunford (PC Lethbridge West) decision not to run again in the coming election. After serving four terms and having some health issues, Clint’s decision is no surprise.

Clint was one of the best Ministers in Klein's various government serving as Minster of Human Resources, Minister of Advanced Education, and Minister of Economic Development.

Clint is an intelligent and capable man who practiced politics honourably and ably. His wisdom and generous human spirit will be missed by those of us who value good government and caring governors.

Red Deer's Victor Doerksen Packs it In!

Victor Doerksen PC Red Deer South is not running again and announced it formally yesterday. This will not doubt be one of many MLAs who re-evaluate and reconsider their political status with the pending election. The political parties are already in the red zone of gearing up for election readiness even though it is likely months away, the reasonable speculation saying it is going to happen in the spring of 2008.

Stelmach has done is one-on-ones and has undoubtedly made his view known to some of the caucus and visa versa. This may be the first politician ot declare his intentions to not run but he will not be the last.

Elections for politicians are like the final game of the Stanley Cup Playoffs and a tough job interview all rolled into one. They are always a cause for one to pause and think about the future. Winning or losing is only part of the consideration. Is politics still worth it is a big question.

The wary and weary factors also come into play, and leadership changes always add to the intensity of the question…one more time...or maybe not so much! Victor was from the social conservative side of the Progressive Conservative ledger. Stelmach is more of a social progressive and fiscal conservative. Victor did not show well in the PC leadership last year. He gets it and knows it is time to move on.

The environment and managing growth being the 800 pound gorilla in the election campaigns this time. Both of these elements will have to be obvious and presented with a sense of stewardship for a candidate or political party to be successful, or even acceptable, to the Alberta electorate this time out.

Stay tuned. More change is in the wind.

China is Holding Bush by the Short and Curlies

The Globe and Mail reports today that Chinese state-owned banks “admit they’re on the hook for $11B” of the subprime debt paper. This crap debt is causing a credit crunch all over the world and I am sure the Chinese are not amused. The impact of the Chinese banking is not huge but if they pull out of the U.S. debt market, that will be a disaster for the American economy...and it will not stop there.

The impact of the American subprime mortgage market meltdown is getting wider and deeper and more global every day. This is not going away and the stock market volatility of the past week or so has been dampened by some pretty hefty cash interventions by national central banks everywhere trying to maintain liquidity. But this mess is far from over. In fact we have only just begun.

A scan of headlines in the financial pages tells us the worst is yet to come. One can all most see this as a fiscal tsunami rising on the horizon and heading towards us. Right now it is far enough in the distance we can’t really tell how big it is or how fast it is moving - but we can see it coming.

Here is a taste of what is gong on form the MSM newspapers:
“U.S. home foreclosures soar in July…fallout from subprime crisis seen as a major factor behind 93% jump in default.” Estimates are that the US will see over 2million residential foreclosures in 2007 and 43 States are all ready seeing a 2007 increase over 2006 figures.

“Finance jobs face the axe as housing woes deepen” U.S. financial services industry has 87,962 job cuts so far in 2007 while all of 2006 saw 50,327 financial sector job cuts. U.S. real estate and construction job cuts in the first 7 months of 2007 are 21,620, more than double the cuts in all of 2006.

On the investment side it is not any better and it has infected Canada too where estimates indicate we are holding over $33B of this non-liquid paper. The Financial Post reports that the Ontario government is in for $700 million, Air Canada is holding some $37million and, the Greater Toronto Airport Authority is exposed for about $250million. Even the venerable and huge Ontario Teachers’ Pension Plan is in for $60million.

Reports in the U.S. stock market that “confidence is shaky” and some American financial experts are indicating a recession is on the way because the recent buoyant economy has been lead by consumer spending financed by loans against increasing home equity. With housing prices dropping and the increasing foreclosures the consumer psychology changes and they quite spending causing a recession. The virtuous cycle turns vicious.

Put that in the context of where Dubya has taken the American economy from $236B surplus in 2000 when he became President to a $248B deficit in 2006. 2007 estimates say the 2007 Bush deficit is going to be at least $210B. He has overspent as much as $400B in a single year since becoming President. Total U.S. federal debt is now over $5-trillion with $2.2 trillion if held by foreigners. The Chinese hold about 50% of the foreign owned debt.

Now consider the enormous U.S. trade deficit of $758B in 2006 and we see more American vulnerability. The first half of 2007 saw the Bush Presidency creating a trade deficit with China alone of $118B. Ouch! And the war with Iraq must be costing the Americans a pretty penny too…largely being financed by borrowings from China.

So we can see that China is holding Bush by his short and curlies. They can, at their will, dictate a large portion of future of the U.S. economy just by not lending any more and not rolling over the existing American debt they hold when it mature. It is just a matter of time before we see some enormous changes in the direction of the U.S. economy. It is going to have a global impact…and it is not going to be pretty.

For more insight and commentary on suggestions for a made-in-Alberta foreign policy - check out the Aug 20th Editorial on Policy Channel

The Jellybean Summit - NAFTA Morphs Into SPP

The Jellybean Summit (NAFTA meets and morphs into SPP in Montebello) is over and none too soon. Hurricane Dean put this fiasco out of its misery early and may well have saved us from the plotting, plodding and pandering of these purely political and photo-op spectacles. Plotting and plodding inevitably happens when Steve and George put their heads together for too long and not much good ususally comes of it .

There was so much going on behind closed doors with hidden agendas, and I’ll bet secret handshakes and shrouded rituals and sacrifices, yes sacrifices, at least we can rely on the truth being sacrificed at these events. It all too reminiscent and even makes one a bit nostalgic of the good old glory days of the Nixon Whitehouse and Watergate don't you think? There was obviously a lot going on at the Jellybean Summit and I’ll bet it was really serious stuff - and way too important for citizens, of all people, to know about.

Unfortunately, or laughably depending on your perspective, the only real “news” we got from the Jellybean Summit was about hardships of incompatible red dye regulations between the US and Canada on jellybean sales and how it cuts down our productivity and competitiveness as a nation. And dammit that needs fixin’ right now. And fix it they did, for once and for all, unless, of course, they used the softwood lumber deal as the model. In that case, stay tuned for the inevitable sequel, "Son of Jellybean Dye Regulations - The Litigation Years."

Mr. Harper called the protests “sad” because he was apparently disappointed in the numbers that showed up. The protesters are claiming infiltration of their ranks by the police. This must be because Mr. Harper was feeling sorry for the small numbers of protesters on the ground. I'll bet he was just trying to be helpful by supplying infiltrators who would actually bolster the ranks. These guys could also help out and get some serious protester conflict action going for the TV cameras. Talk about synergy and symbioses...thanks Steve.

If that is all we get out of this "Summit" is the “Ganong Show” over regulating jellybean colours can we save some time and money next time and have George and Steve just phone it in?

More Ideas on Libel and the Internet

I have been made aware of Chris Tindal, a fellow Blogger who gets it on this libel chill thing. He is worth a read and makes some important points on the implications for Wikis and libelous postings. I think the same concerns may be there for aggregator sites too.

I do think some of the things he says need some comment. He says:

"Canadian libel law is very old, having evolved from British common law (meaning
law that evolves based on the rulings of judges over time, forming legal
precedent). One of the most interesting things about libel in Canada is that it
reverses the burden of proof, such that the defendant is actually guilty unless
they can prove themselves innocent."

In my opinion the history of libel is "old" but it is the that it is constantly being updated by case law and it is those judicial decisions that keeps it current. Current is a relative term and no doubt the case law in defamation is lagging given the dynamics of the Internet and the Blogosphere. It is not totally out of touch and it deals with libel chill quite effectively as far as I am concerned.

The other point I would challenge is the contention that there is a reverse onus in areas of libel. The Defendant, alleged publisher of the comments that are claimed to offend and damage a reputation is not guilty trying to prove themselves innocent. They controlled the comments, context and events at issue. They merely have to prove their comments were fair comment, or they did not say them or if they did say them, they did not mean them, or they said them, and meant them, they were the truth. That is not a reverse onus. That is the minimum level of responsibility required and inherent in publication and should be considered every time a Blogger hits the Publish button.

The proof of publication is pretty easy for the Plaintiff, it is in the media after all and that is what gives rise to the claim of libel. Proving the identity of the author in the Blogosphere is potentially more difficult given that so many Bloggers (too many to my mind) hide behind anonymity. The other hurdle for the Plaintiff is that they must give evidence and prove loss of reputation. If no one actually believed the libelous post accusations about a person because it was so outrageous, they may have a winning case but minimal damages.

Published apologies go to mitigate damages and that is why you almost always see MSM publishing apologies and corrections if there is any possibility of liability for libel or slander. Chris makes a fundamental new point however related to mitigation of damages. He notes that the Plaintiff has full and unfettered access to the very same Internet and audience as the original publisher of a libel. He can rebut or correct the record himself very inexpensively, effectively and timely because he is also a citizen journalist and publisher.

My hope is this unique power of rebuttal and clarification via direct access to the Internet and the Blogosphere offers the best defence to any lawsuit or efforts at libel chill. The Defendants in the current case are also using the power of the Internet to bring forth a claim of libel chill in this case. I have no seen anyone yet say the comments that were made were fair comment or true or to apologize for making them. They may have and I have not been made aware if this has happened but I would like to know. One Defendant did go to court to claim they were not part of the group that made the post or the link and the court accepted their evidence and removed them from the lawsuit. That defendant effectively used the position "I did not say that."

Ironically if someone who feels defamed uses this Internet access avenue for publishing their own rebuttal or clarification and it does not work or rehabilitate their reputation, maybe they did not have a positive reputation in the first place and then their damages for any libel are again minimal. I don't know if the Plaintiff has engaged in any Internet reputation restoration or rebuttal either and would be interested if it happened.