Reboot Alberta

Thursday, October 18, 2007

CAPP Incorrectly Claims "Many of the Authors Appear to No Longer Support"...the Royalty Review

Honourable people can disagree…and it happens all the time. Pierre is a knowledgeable and an accomplished spokesperson for the energy sector in Alberta. I know Pierre Alvarez the President of the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers to be an honourable man. However, today I have to disagree with him, based on his letter to the Editor in the Edmonton Journal today.

The CAPP response is a classic example of “framing an issue” to fit a preconceived position and to be selective in presenting the facts. Mr. Alvarez takes two points and seeks to make them out to be major issues that ought to result in a conclusion that the “Our Fair Share” Royalty Review process and report is fatally flawed.

Firstly he suggests there are “revelations” from earlier comments of review panellists to be distancing themselves for the reports recommendations as they relate to elimination of deep gas and enhanced royalty programs. In fact the Panellist’s comments were that the Royalty Review was not intending to eliminate the deep well gas incentives and confirming that they ought to continue.

On page 68 of the Royalty Review this incentive is described as a lower royalty rate for deeper wells that do not achieve productions rates sufficient to compensate for the additional drilling costs. The Review notes the program is scheduled to end August 31, 2012.

On the same page the Review deals with the EUB flare management framework designed in 1996 to “reduce gas flaring volume reduction targets from 1996 base levels by 50% for 2002. This program provides a royalty waver “to natural gas that is produced from oil wells where it is uneconomic to conserve.” I for one, have to wonder if that is an appropriate policy to continue in light of the current environmental concerns and context in Alberta.

Otherwise the Review notes there are a bunch on incremental programs in the conventional gas area that are “patches on patches” designed to address specific problems and situations. The royalty regime is said to “not appropriately reflect the unique costs of certain developments or to facilitate special policy direction determined by government.”

The goal is to make the royalty regime simpler and CAPP’s Technical Review section 2.1.2 agrees with that recommendation.

The letter also deals with comparisons with Norway and Alberta and I will save that for another post.

Finally Pierre makes a huge leap in the final paragraph of his letter to conclude that “It was only three weeks ago that Albertans were asked top accept a report that many of its authors appear to no longer support.” Boy that is a stretch of the facts and a misrepresentation of the reality. The Panel has clarified one issue on its continuing support for deep well subsidies and made some minor revisions to correct some graphs in the report. That does not suggest that “many of its authors no longer support” the review recommendations.

Citizens are not going to take spin as gospel and it behoves the industry to avoid it at all costs. This is especially true if the industry wants to rehabilitate the public’s confidence and convince Albertans’ that they have the right stuff to be worthy of a continuing social license to operate their businesses on the public’s property.

Wednesday, October 17, 2007

More False Assumptions Over Alberta's Royalty Review Report.

Interesting piece in the National Post suggesting the Canadian oil and gas stocks are not “surging” as they apparently are in the US. The blaming is being put on the “Our Fair Share” Royalty Review, in part.. It also mentions that the loonies’ rapid rise (more correctly put – the US dollars significant decline) in value being up 20% in 2007 already and breaking parity with the US may have something to do with this.

The Canadian energy sector stock prices have been at or near record price levels before and after the royalty review report. Interesting today that Suncor is trading today over $103.00 – over the record high of $100.00 it enjoyed just before the Royalty Review came out.

People are entitled to their own opinions – they are not entitled to their own facts. In fairness, things are moving pretty quickly in the world these days and everything is so interlinked it is difficult to isolate causes and effects.


That said, it is at best a stretch to blame some minor stock volatility on a review report that has not been commented on by the government yet. Just more scaremongering and political positioning as I see it.

The Chinese Are Coming! The Chinese Are Coming!


ALBERTA ENCOURAGES CHINESE INVESTMENT:
Oct. 1ALBERTA 17, 2007 (China Knowledge) – Canada's Alberta encourages China to increase its investment in the oil province with many oil sand reserves, said a senior official from Alberta on Tuesday. Iris Evans, Alberta's Minister of Employment, Immigration and Industry, revealed in a press meeting at the Canadian Embassy in Beijing, that the more Chinese investments are expected to pour in.

CHINA’S CITIC BIDS FOR BEAR STREANS STAKE: REGULATOR
BEIJING
— — China's CITIC Bank Corp. Ltd. is bidding for a stake in Bear Stearns Cos. [BSC-N], a senior Chinese regulator said, in the first official confirmation of media reports that the state-run bank was a potential suitor for the smallest of Wall Street's five big independent brokerages.
Bear Stearns is among the institutions hardest hit by the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis, and Chief Executive James Cayne said earlier this month it would consider selling a stake to an investor from China or the Middle East if the deal created value.


ALBERTA IS GOING TO BE PLAYING A NEW ROLE IN THE GEOPOLITICAL REALITY AROUND ENERGY SUPPLY AND INVESTMENT: The new normal of globalization on markets and investments and the demand for energy in the developed and developing world will put Alberta's oil sands in the cross hairs of geopolitical strategic issues. We Albertans better beef up our Intergovernmental capacity.

Gary Mar going to be Alberta's guy in Washington is a good step in the right direction. There is lots more to be done and some changes need to be made - including changing the Minister - for us to be ready for this new normal.

More Good Marketplace News in Alberta's Energy Sector "...regardless of what happens with the royalty review."

Oops! More good news from the marketplace on oil sands investments. How could this be happening when there is so many who are warning that the Alberta sky is falling on the energy sector?

Synenco Energy (SYN/TSX) is reported to have had a 13% one day rise in share prices now at $11.37. One analyst tagging it as a player to “outperform” and has a target share price of $15 on this company. Synenco Energy holds a 60% interest in the oil sands play known as the Northern Lights Partnership and they will be the operator of the Northern Lights project. They also hold a 100% interest in another adjacent oil sand project. They are also active in developing an upgrader just outside of Edmonton. These guys are not bit players.

The really interesting info on the Northern Lights Partnership is the other 40% partner. That is the SinoCanada Petroleum Corporation, an indirect wholly owned subsidiary of Sinopec – the large China based oil company. Again we see more confidence in the Alberta energy sector from non-North American sources. Why is that?

Mr. Bouchard, an analyst with Raymond James is quoted in the Financial Post as saying “Based on our analysis, current trading levels simply don’t reflect the value of the assets – regardless of what happens with the royalty review. (emphasis added.)

Some business writers (including this National Post piece) are still of the opinion that the “Our Fair Share” Royalty Review has caused the Alberta energy sector to “have taken a hit.” I presume they are talking share prices mostly. There has been some share volatility, off record or near record highs for most companies since the release of the Royalty Review on September 18. That volatility has been in a relatively narrow range that is more likely tied to oil prices being up and down on a daily basis...and setting new record highs this week.

For some more perspective, I see in the Globe and Mail Report on Business today noted that 4 out of 5 of the TSX Index Lifters are energy companies – all of whom are engaged extensively in Alberta oil sands activity. Curious wouldn’t you say? The sky is not falling. It looks to me like it is raining money.

Tuesday, October 16, 2007

Marathon Oil is Buying Into Alberta - What Are They Thinking?

So Marathon Oil is clearly out of it. They are buying into the Alberta Oils Sands when the conventional “wisdom” is that the industry should run away from Alberta investment - at least according to some of the existing Alberta energy “players.”

They have been saying they can’t make a go of it with the second largest oil deposits in the world with oil at a record $86 per barrel and having to suffer with a province that imposes a stable democratic government with a strong currency, a skilled work force and located next to the largest market for fossil fuel energy use on the planet. That has to be a tough scenario in which to do business and make it work. Yes sir!

The “smart money” in the Alberta oil patch that is saying it is leaving Alberta and/or no longer investing because royalties will move from 25% of Net Profit to 33% of Net Profit. Yes that is a royalty based on Net Profits, meaning the dollars subject to royalties are not determined until after the projects have first paid all their operating costs including. They say that is 20% increase – which it is – but it really moves up 8 points and is based on net profits before taxes. Give me a break!

Marathon must be a fly-by-night operation run by a bunch of unsophisticated rubes to be going forward and investing in Alberta’s oil sands now of all times. Check out their website to see just how not true that is!

They operate in 18 countries and are engaged in exploration and production, including integrated gas, marketing and transportation and happen to be the 5th largest refiner in the United States. What are they thinking - coming into Alberta?

They should just ask Encana for advice to see how much of a mistake they are making by coming into the Alberta energy sector. Oh yes Encana has the “Our Fair Share” royalty review recommendation’s figured out all right. They are leading the mythological parade out of Alberta due to the Royalty Review which they say is destined to wrought devastation on the energy sector investment market for all Alberta for all time.

Get this. They said they were pulling out a $1B of capital activity in Alberta because of “uncertainty” caused by the royalty review. Get this too. Two weeks later EnCana said they are going to be investing a cool $1B into an oil sands play. Coincidence…I doubt it. Hypocrisy is more like it.

Investment actions speak louder than political intimidations in my book.

Marathon you better think twice about coming into the Alberta energy sector because of enterprises like Encana is allegedly doing the opposite. And whatever you do – don’t talk to Warren Buffett about investing in Alberta’s oil sands…he just may talk you into it.