I have been in Las Vegas for three days at the Blogworld and New Media Conference. Lots going on in this new medium. Very exciting times…lots of diversity of people involved. I thought I would be the only one without tattoos and body piercing. I was very wrong. Met lots of interesting people who are all very interested in facilitating the conversation and doing so responsibly.
Sorry I have not been posting as regularly but I am back late Saturday. Checking headlines good to see Harper relenting on an inquiry on the Mulroney-Schreiber affair. Sometimes you have to put away your “principles” and to the right thing.
The discover of carcinogens in the Athabasca river is going to be a hot story that ties in health, environment and the Alberta economy into an integrated whole…too late coming and a prime political challenge.
Curious as to the Alberta privacy commissioner comments that certain government contracts with Murray Smith and Rod Love have no impediments to public release and Premier Stelmach’s refusal to do so…don’t know enough facts yet but this si one to be dug into and followed. Political credibility is on the line here.
Here in Nevada the US economy is now a topic that rivals homeland security as a major concern. The musings by Chinese officials that they may start to diversify their treasury reserve cash holdings (that are enormous) beyond US Dollars has shocked and shaken the confidence down here. Not a major deal yet but American Pride it is an issue with legs.
Saturday, November 10, 2007
Wednesday, November 07, 2007
Political Spin at its Best!
The public has to worry about political spin all the time. I received this example of spin from a friend on the Internet. It is such a fine example I felt it is worth sharing:
Judy Wallman, a professional genealogical researcher, discovered that Hillary Clinton's great-great uncle, Remus Rodham, was hanged for horsestealing and train robbery in Montana in 1889. The only known photograph of Remus shows him standing on the gallows. On the back of the picture is this inscription:
"Remus Rodham; horse thief, sent to Montana Territorial Prison 1885, escaped 1887, robbed the Montana Flyer six times. Caught by Pinkerton detectives, convicted and hanged in 1889.”
Judy e-mailed Hillary Clinton for comments. Hillary's staff of professional image adjusters sent back the following biographical sketch:
"Remus Rodham was a famous cowboy in the Montana Territory. His business empire grew to include acquisition of valuable equestrian assets and intimate dealings with the Montana railroad. Beginning in 1883, he devoted several years of his life to service at a government facility, finally taking leave to resume his dealings with the railroad. In 1887, he was a key player in a vital investigation run by the renowned Pinkerton Detective Agency. In 1889, Remus passed away during an important civic function held in his honor when the platform upon which he was standing collapsed."
And THAT is how it's done folks!
Judy Wallman, a professional genealogical researcher, discovered that Hillary Clinton's great-great uncle, Remus Rodham, was hanged for horsestealing and train robbery in Montana in 1889. The only known photograph of Remus shows him standing on the gallows. On the back of the picture is this inscription:
"Remus Rodham; horse thief, sent to Montana Territorial Prison 1885, escaped 1887, robbed the Montana Flyer six times. Caught by Pinkerton detectives, convicted and hanged in 1889.”
Judy e-mailed Hillary Clinton for comments. Hillary's staff of professional image adjusters sent back the following biographical sketch:
"Remus Rodham was a famous cowboy in the Montana Territory. His business empire grew to include acquisition of valuable equestrian assets and intimate dealings with the Montana railroad. Beginning in 1883, he devoted several years of his life to service at a government facility, finally taking leave to resume his dealings with the railroad. In 1887, he was a key player in a vital investigation run by the renowned Pinkerton Detective Agency. In 1889, Remus passed away during an important civic function held in his honor when the platform upon which he was standing collapsed."
And THAT is how it's done folks!
Too Much Heat and Not Enough Light on the Royalty Collection Issues
So now we see the over heated rhetoric and misinformation campaigning move from the energy industry and into the Alberta Legislature. This is a sad “state of affairs.”
The Alberta Liberals are torquing the facts by insinuating criminal intent on the Klein government Ministers of Energy and the current Minister of Energy and is reported to be “suggesting” a criminal investigation may be needed….” Mr. Taft, the Leader of the Alberta Liberals is apparently making these unfounded accusations and he knows better. After all he has a B.A. in political science, a Masters degree in community development and a PhD in business. So this hyping of the facts by such an educated and experienced individual is neither ignorance nor innocence. It is more like the kind of negative, half-truth, Republican-esque partisan politics we have come to expect from Stephen Harper.
The Auditor General Fred Dunn has clearly stated the situation around past royalty collection decisions by the Klein government. This kind of decision is at the discretion of the government and taken by the appropriate Minister, the Energy Minister in this case.
Premier Stelmach also seems to be getting caught up in the torque the facts for effect and rhetoric. He is reported to be tying an “Our Fair Share” recommendation for a proposed Oil Sands Severance Tax as being akin to the NEP and saying such a tax would “cripple the province’s economy.” That is mostly a political judgement. Ironically if Stelmach had kept that severance tax recommendation he would not have to try and renegotiate the Suncor/Syncrude royalty agreements. That tax would have leveled the playing field for the newer projects. That is partly why the Expert Panel recommended the tax.
The Alberta Liberals are torquing the facts by insinuating criminal intent on the Klein government Ministers of Energy and the current Minister of Energy and is reported to be “suggesting” a criminal investigation may be needed….” Mr. Taft, the Leader of the Alberta Liberals is apparently making these unfounded accusations and he knows better. After all he has a B.A. in political science, a Masters degree in community development and a PhD in business. So this hyping of the facts by such an educated and experienced individual is neither ignorance nor innocence. It is more like the kind of negative, half-truth, Republican-esque partisan politics we have come to expect from Stephen Harper.
The Auditor General Fred Dunn has clearly stated the situation around past royalty collection decisions by the Klein government. This kind of decision is at the discretion of the government and taken by the appropriate Minister, the Energy Minister in this case.
Premier Stelmach also seems to be getting caught up in the torque the facts for effect and rhetoric. He is reported to be tying an “Our Fair Share” recommendation for a proposed Oil Sands Severance Tax as being akin to the NEP and saying such a tax would “cripple the province’s economy.” That is mostly a political judgement. Ironically if Stelmach had kept that severance tax recommendation he would not have to try and renegotiate the Suncor/Syncrude royalty agreements. That tax would have leveled the playing field for the newer projects. That is partly why the Expert Panel recommended the tax.
Political judgment aside, Premier Stelmach goes much further by implying such a "production tax" would drive people out of the province, create a situation where people could not pay their mortgages and many business would go broke…as he suggests happened with the NEP.
The NEP is part of the Alberta mythosphere and we tend to forget that the NEP was negotiated with Alberta. The fact is conveniently forgotten that before the NEP got implemented President Reagan released the US strategic oil supplies. That alone pulled the rug out of the world oil prices and as they plunged they sent the Alberta economy into a tail spin. The NEP would have really hurt Alberta but it didn't, President Reagan got to us first.
The issue of uncollected energy royalties is very clear in the Auditor Generals Report. The administration recommended an increase and that recommendation was rejected by the Minister(s) of the day. That decision was totally within the government discretion so no legal wrong doing is at issue. To project a criminal intent is over the line.
What is at issue here is the quality and consequences of the policy judgment call to not increase royalties and how and why it was made at that time. We elect politicians to make these “hard choices” on our behalf and the issues are never simple and all the facts are never fully known. It is always a judgment call.
So it comes down to a few salient points. Did the Ministers of the day follow a proper review process and analysis of the situation in coming to this discretionary judgment? On what basis did they make the decision and was it a sound judgment and how do they justify the decision as being in the public interest.
The other key question is who did the Klein government listen to in arriving at such decision? Interestingly, Premier Stelmach is quoted now as saying "But at the end of the day, in this government the decisions are made by government, not listening to advice that may come from bureaucracies." "We take advice obviously, from others."
Well I hope the new Lobbyist Act will help us answer the question of just who those "others" are who our elected representatives listen to in the future and why they were so persuasive. We Albertans can then perhaps begin to understand just what part of the public interest those "others" represent. We can also consider if our elected representatives are serving the common good in the exercise of the many discretions they have and the complex decisions they have to make.
Lets remind the politicians of Premier Stelmach's early suggestion to calm down. Lets also get serious about this stuff. There is enough grist for any political mill in these royalty issues that hype and rhetoric are not only unnecessary - it is unhelpful in assisting Albertans in better understanding what is and was going on.
None of this needs to be torqued for effect. The politically motivated manufacturing of misleading media headlines are not helpful. Lets get opportunistic partisan politics out of the royalty deliberations and go right to the debate about how we ensure open, transparent, accountable and good government as the larger goal.
There are signs of hope this could happen. The multi-party support of the NDP motion for an emergency debate on these issues was a step in the right direction…we need more politicians with that greater sense of responsibility and public duty who will stand up like that. Good for those individual MLAs from all parties who voted for the emergency debate. I am looking forward to reading Hansard to see who the real statesmen are on this issue.
Monday, November 05, 2007
Manning Wants a More Comprehensive Policy Approach in Alberta - and He is Right
You have to admire Preston Manning and Peter Lougheed. They both have different takes on the Stelmach’s government responses and the consequences to the “Our Fair Share” Royalty Review Panel recommendations.
Lougheed praised Stelmach and it should be noted Lougheed knows what he is talking about, having raised royalties himself many years ago. The federal Minister for Alberta Jim Prentice also praised the Stelmach response.
Manning, on the other hand, pans Stelmach’s response but not so much on the royalty issues in terms of balance and appropriateness but on the larger issue of the capacity of Stelmach to adequately govern.
Let’s look at what Manning has to say. He accuses Stelmach of tearing up agreements with two major oilsands players (Suncor and Syncrude). That is not the case and Manning knows it. Stelmach has confirmed that those deals run until 2016 and if they are not renegotiated by mutual agreement, they will continue to be honoured.
Manning was on CTV’s Question Period yesterday noting that the Stelmach government may fall into minority territory should another 150,000 Albertans stay home on Election Day. This is in addition to the 210,000 PC supporters who stayed home in the 2004 Klein election. Here is where I agree with Manning, if that happens, Stelmach in minority or even losing territory.
However an election is not here yet and there is lots of time for Stelmach to do the rights thing to restore good government to Alberta…and get the credit for it. That means he needs to be between the far right and the old-style Klein somnambulist approach to governing but also to fix the social and ecological deficits in Alberta to day and going forward. A single minded focus on the economic agenda alone is not good enough.
Now let’s look at the Manning Agenda based on from his reported comments. He notes “…the big picture just hasn’t been spelled out, that’s where I see the problems.” The items in the Manning “big picture” are tying royalty rates to tax policy, continental energy security and environment. And he pointedly asks if Stelmach has the competence to deal with these issues as well. It is a fair and provocative question. It will get distorted and massaged by all kinds of spin-masters but I think Albertans can see through that noise and keep a focus on their core concerns.
Here I think Manning’s focus on what he calls “the big picture” is right on. But I think the focus is not on Stelmach’s competence to govern alone is too narrow. Do any of the political party leaders in Alberta have the trust of Albertans to competently deal with these issues? Our oil sand survey preliminary results show that none of them have generated sufficient trust to deal with growth issues in the province. Stelmach is by far the most trusted political leader in Alberta according to our results but at only 32% support that is not enough to presume electoral success.
There is a need for the political agenda to deal beyond the dollars and get into the environment and social issues and angst that this economic growth has caused. Albertans know that and have moved ahead of the political pundits and politicians to embrace a more comprehensive and integrated approach to public policy and governance. So media sound bites and political personalities aside in the complex real world I think Lougheed, Prentice and Manning are all correct in their comments and observations on the Stelmach royalty response and the potential political and policy consequences to governing.
Albertans will decide all of this in the next election. Staying home and not participating is not a viable option to sustain a robust democracy. My bet is if people are not happy the far right will go to the Alliance or the new Wildrose party if it gets enough signatures to forma party before the election. The left will go Green and the disenchanted middle will also park with the Greens as a way to send a message.
I will shortly post what I think that could mean for all the current political party leaders in the aftermath of the next election.
Lougheed praised Stelmach and it should be noted Lougheed knows what he is talking about, having raised royalties himself many years ago. The federal Minister for Alberta Jim Prentice also praised the Stelmach response.
Manning, on the other hand, pans Stelmach’s response but not so much on the royalty issues in terms of balance and appropriateness but on the larger issue of the capacity of Stelmach to adequately govern.
Let’s look at what Manning has to say. He accuses Stelmach of tearing up agreements with two major oilsands players (Suncor and Syncrude). That is not the case and Manning knows it. Stelmach has confirmed that those deals run until 2016 and if they are not renegotiated by mutual agreement, they will continue to be honoured.
Manning was on CTV’s Question Period yesterday noting that the Stelmach government may fall into minority territory should another 150,000 Albertans stay home on Election Day. This is in addition to the 210,000 PC supporters who stayed home in the 2004 Klein election. Here is where I agree with Manning, if that happens, Stelmach in minority or even losing territory.
However an election is not here yet and there is lots of time for Stelmach to do the rights thing to restore good government to Alberta…and get the credit for it. That means he needs to be between the far right and the old-style Klein somnambulist approach to governing but also to fix the social and ecological deficits in Alberta to day and going forward. A single minded focus on the economic agenda alone is not good enough.
Now let’s look at the Manning Agenda based on from his reported comments. He notes “…the big picture just hasn’t been spelled out, that’s where I see the problems.” The items in the Manning “big picture” are tying royalty rates to tax policy, continental energy security and environment. And he pointedly asks if Stelmach has the competence to deal with these issues as well. It is a fair and provocative question. It will get distorted and massaged by all kinds of spin-masters but I think Albertans can see through that noise and keep a focus on their core concerns.
Here I think Manning’s focus on what he calls “the big picture” is right on. But I think the focus is not on Stelmach’s competence to govern alone is too narrow. Do any of the political party leaders in Alberta have the trust of Albertans to competently deal with these issues? Our oil sand survey preliminary results show that none of them have generated sufficient trust to deal with growth issues in the province. Stelmach is by far the most trusted political leader in Alberta according to our results but at only 32% support that is not enough to presume electoral success.
There is a need for the political agenda to deal beyond the dollars and get into the environment and social issues and angst that this economic growth has caused. Albertans know that and have moved ahead of the political pundits and politicians to embrace a more comprehensive and integrated approach to public policy and governance. So media sound bites and political personalities aside in the complex real world I think Lougheed, Prentice and Manning are all correct in their comments and observations on the Stelmach royalty response and the potential political and policy consequences to governing.
Albertans will decide all of this in the next election. Staying home and not participating is not a viable option to sustain a robust democracy. My bet is if people are not happy the far right will go to the Alliance or the new Wildrose party if it gets enough signatures to forma party before the election. The left will go Green and the disenchanted middle will also park with the Greens as a way to send a message.
I will shortly post what I think that could mean for all the current political party leaders in the aftermath of the next election.
Friday, November 02, 2007
What Does Responsible and Sustainable Oil Sands Development Mean to You?
So it has been an interesting and intense few weeks since the “Our Fair Share” Royalty Review came out. The ferociousness of the energy industry response and the anger and tactics of many of them was as lively as good theatre. However, the Alberta audience did not suspend their disbelief and we were not transformed by the industry messages or their performances.
The Expert Panel engaged in clarifying, explaining and defending their process, findings and recommendations - and at times even defending themselves. Some were enlightened by the Panel's engagement, others were offended.
Then the Stelmach government came up with its decision and we have seen some interesting post announcement poll results. there have been some supportive endorsements, some serious reservations and others who say Stelmach did not get the job done that should have been done.
This week is considerably quieter. I expect people in the energy industry are trying to digest the economic and political implications of the Stelmach royalty decision and the consequences of their lobbying campaign. Those not directly involved seem to have “moved on” into other issues or back into their so-called “normal” Alberta lives. Others have a lingering sense that there is a new normal emerging in Alberta around citizens relations with government and our governments role with the energy industry coming out of all of this.
After a bit of a breather from the blather, Albertans will once again have to re-engage and this time it should be about the future of the oil sands. We at Cambridge Strategies Inc. and The Policy Channel are already into that re-engagement process. We want to encourage other Albertans back into “active duty” through a survey we are doing on the future of the oil sands.
We are doing this web-based Discrete Choice Modelling survey ourselves and not for any client. It is looking into the values Albertans attribute to the responsible and sustainable development of the oil sands. What we are looking into is what does responsible and sustainable oil sands development mean to Albertans? What is really important about that concept and just how important is the future development of the oil sands to us?
We invite all Albertans to participate. We are actively reaching out to Albertans in all walks of life to have some input. The more the merrier and so far some 2000 Albertans have done the survey. We will use the results to hopefully influence government and industry on future policy directions for our oil sands in ways that align with our values and aspirations.
In the survey you will be given optional scenarios to choose from. Be advised they are not likely to be practical choices but also understand that is not the purpose of the survey. What we want to know is what aspects of the choices offered are the most important and the least important to you. Your choices of the various scenarios sets in the survey will tell us that. Be forewarned, it is not easy. It will take about 8 minutes to do and you will be asked to make some very difficult choices. You will have to make trade-off decisions attributes around oil sands development. Just like real life.
It is an anonymous survey but you can leave an email address at the end of the survey if you want us to send you a report on the results – expected that in mind January.
Then the Stelmach government came up with its decision and we have seen some interesting post announcement poll results. there have been some supportive endorsements, some serious reservations and others who say Stelmach did not get the job done that should have been done.
This week is considerably quieter. I expect people in the energy industry are trying to digest the economic and political implications of the Stelmach royalty decision and the consequences of their lobbying campaign. Those not directly involved seem to have “moved on” into other issues or back into their so-called “normal” Alberta lives. Others have a lingering sense that there is a new normal emerging in Alberta around citizens relations with government and our governments role with the energy industry coming out of all of this.
After a bit of a breather from the blather, Albertans will once again have to re-engage and this time it should be about the future of the oil sands. We at Cambridge Strategies Inc. and The Policy Channel are already into that re-engagement process. We want to encourage other Albertans back into “active duty” through a survey we are doing on the future of the oil sands.
We are doing this web-based Discrete Choice Modelling survey ourselves and not for any client. It is looking into the values Albertans attribute to the responsible and sustainable development of the oil sands. What we are looking into is what does responsible and sustainable oil sands development mean to Albertans? What is really important about that concept and just how important is the future development of the oil sands to us?
We invite all Albertans to participate. We are actively reaching out to Albertans in all walks of life to have some input. The more the merrier and so far some 2000 Albertans have done the survey. We will use the results to hopefully influence government and industry on future policy directions for our oil sands in ways that align with our values and aspirations.
In the survey you will be given optional scenarios to choose from. Be advised they are not likely to be practical choices but also understand that is not the purpose of the survey. What we want to know is what aspects of the choices offered are the most important and the least important to you. Your choices of the various scenarios sets in the survey will tell us that. Be forewarned, it is not easy. It will take about 8 minutes to do and you will be asked to make some very difficult choices. You will have to make trade-off decisions attributes around oil sands development. Just like real life.
It is an anonymous survey but you can leave an email address at the end of the survey if you want us to send you a report on the results – expected that in mind January.
Thanks for participating.
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