Harper "Achingly Close" To a Majority

The EKOS polling firm has gone deeper than most pollsters in this election. They are not stuck in the misleading national poll numbers but rather do seat projections in each province. Their results are much more interesting and nuanced than the other polls I follow.

The voter volatility in Quebec and Ontario is the key to the results in this election. EKOS says the BQ is on track to win BIG in Quebec. The slight shift of a few hundred voters will make all the difference in the outcomes in ridings in Quebec and Ontario. I expect lots of drama on election night and the issue of a Harper majority – on not. Canadians may have to wait until BC decides that issues one way or another on October 14.

The four way horse race in BC in other polling results is misleading because it ignores the efficiency of the Conservative vote in Lotusland. The Conservatives are in the driver’s seat to win big in BC. EKOS has projected them at 24 seats as of yesterday with the NDP doing rather well with 8 seats and a Liberal meltdown to 4 seats. B.C. is no long the "Left Coast."

The Cons are “achingly close” to a majority with 146 seats according to the EKOS seat projection. The Liberals are getting down to John Turner level of seats and now projected at 66 with almost 2/3 of their seat projections coming from Ontario.

EKOS shows a resurgence of the Bloc in Quebec that is apparently thwarting the Harper majority with a little help from a slight shift in Ontario to the Liberals who were closing the seat gap with the Conservatives in the past week.

The easy to overlook “sleeper” result in this weeks EKOS seat projection is the prediction of 1 LIBERAL seat in Alberta. That has to be Jim Wachowich, who is my choice in my constituency of Edmonton Centre. Harper is taking Alberta for granted and Edmonton is a contrarian place and may be sending him a message.

More Canadians Believe in Big Foot Than Politicians Will Keep Election Promises

The Canadian Taxpayers Federation always struck me as frustrated Libertarians who compromised themselves enough to support Harper’s Conservatives on fiscal issues so they did not look extreme. Ironic don’t you think.

Well they have done some good work that Progressives like me have tended to overlook. The CTF work product that recently caught my eye at first glance looked like it originated with the Rhinoceros Party. To presume that would be wrong. It is the handiwork of the CTF and it underscores the depth of cynicism in the Canadian public over confidence in our political leaders to keep election promises.

This CTF sponsored poll was done way back in January 2008, when nobody was really paying attention, post Christmas and way before an election was anticipated. The poll asked at least one fundamental question that must have been judged as top of mind for every engaged Canadian by the CTF.

Q19 - Which is more likely to happen... Politicians will keep their election promises or Scientists will prove the existence of Big Foot.

The results will astound you. 58% of Canadians have more faith in science proving the existence of Big Foot than they do in politicians keeping election promises. Only 27% of Canadians chose the honest politician option.

This result is funny, then sad and finally, it is depressing, as you think about it. This shows just how inadequate we have come to view our democracy and the condition of politics in Canada these days.

The political cynicism about political leadership was consistent across the board, demographically and geographically. Only my Alberta and in good old Sask/Man, both Harper Conservative strongholds, was there any sense of some variation.

In Alberta only 51.5% of us favoured Big Foot’s discovery over trusting politicians. A full 18.4% of us were “Unsure or Undecided, so I am not sure where 1 in 5 of us is leaning (sic) to being unsure about such a question.

Sask/Man folks were split equally between believing in Big Foot or in believing political promises. Not sure what that says about voters there either but I will default to being "encouraged" that they took the question seriously (sic).

We already know Harper does not keep promises like Income Trusts and he breaks his own laws like Fixed Election Dates. Just imagine what Harper would do to us with the absolute power of a majority government! It is starting to look that that Harper majority will be the unfortunate outcome to this election.

You always get the government you deserve in a democracy. Cynicism is not an option this election.

Climate Change Deliberative Democracy Event a Success!

There is a fascinating event happening this weekend at the UofA on citizen engagement. My friend, Wendy Andrews, has been attending and helping to organize the event. I don't do "guest blogs" but Wendy's offering is a worthy exception. Here is her take on what happened last night at the Deliberative Democracy event on Climate Change in Alberta:



Friday, Sept. 26, 2008
Deliberative Democracy and Climate Change


Capitalizing on Alberta’s Natural inclination to be a leader makes us step up as citizens!! Change is happening!

Friday night at the U of A Telus Centre, more than 200 people partook in a discussion about how to engage Albertans in addressing Climate change. Janette Hartz-Karp from Perth, Australia led us through a very entertaining World Café process.

High school students, Seniors, first nations, business executives, housewives and government personnel together explored what Alberta would look like in 2020 if we were successful in addressing climate change.

We had cross party representation at the event and all parties recognized the need to move forward…..but how? …….. That’s what we will deliberate tomorrow.

There is a great opportunity for Alberta to take a lead to be innovators in both Citizen Engagement processes and Climate change. People are acting now in the hope that they can best prepare for the future…..together.

I sat with several young people who were at University or just into the workforce who were totally up to challenge of making a difference in their own future. Wow! People are ready to be more involved in how they are governed…..see the results of today’s deliberations on http://www.climateconversation.ning.com

This is just the beginning of the discussion. You too, can be part of the excitement. Site will be updated daily and keep checking this blog as history is made.


Thx Wendy for the update. If you are interested in attending and learning more about this event on deliberative democracy HERE IS A LINK to my post last Thursday on the event: http://ken-chapman.blogspot.com/2008/09/deliberative-democracy-forum-on.html

Culture in Danger (Culture en Péril, with subtitles)

It is Friday. The last Monday of the Week. This election is about half done.

We finally have a quality bit of satire to spice it up...and from Quebec - not surprising. And it is about Harper's attitude towards arts and culture. This is an example of why we need artists in our midst. To show us ourselves and in meaningful ways...yes satire is meaningful.

This video is funny even for a unilingual Anglophone like me. If you don't know the "F-word" from a "seal" you may be offended by this video. I sugguest you return to pooping Puffins for a more pedantic bit of prankstering.

Have a great weekend.

Former Fan Passes on Palin

Here is a fundamentalist Republican coming to the conclusion Palin is no fun and may be mentally incapable of being a heart attack away from having responsibility for the nuclear codes.

Is McSame playing politics with the Bush nationalizaton of the American economy? Repubicans are blocking the $700 Billion Bush-league Doctine from going forward.