So we already know we can’t trust politicians. But do we dare believe polls now or not? Obviously we can’t rely on them as they become less and less reliable. According to a great piece by Siri Agrell in the Globe and Mail today, the American pollsters are all over the map on tracking opinions on the road to the White House.
Pollsters are showing results from 13 different pollsters we see claims of an Obama lead ranging from 14 points to 1 point. Can they all be right? Can any of them be right? The polling methodologies are the culprits. The old-school techniques are missing major portions of the population because they don’t connect with cell phone users…lots of youth are not in the results.
They use automatic dialing systems and lots of folks will not talk to a machine. More built-in inaccuracies are “normalized.” Some only use Internet pull techniques and then apply variables like multipliers to try and adjust for skewed data.
Many national polls have very small sample sizes for regional reporting but that does not seem to be any deterrence from pollsters still making statements about regional findings. Other efforts to account for wide ranging differences is be averaging all polls, the so-called poll of polls. This is still no way to get better polling accuracy because garbage-in/garbage-out is not resolved by averaging all the garbage.
Canadian pollsters were all caught in the 2006 election predictions because they failed to recognize the impact of last minute shifts and final impulse decisions in undecided voters. This election they did rolling polls over the weekend before Election Day and came up with much closer results.
Mistrust of pundits, politicians and now pollsters by the public is a prudent default position for anyone who wants to know what is really going on in politics today.
Friday, October 24, 2008
Thursday, October 23, 2008
Dr. O'Connor Cancer Documentary on Oscar Short List
There is an increasing awareness and concern over the health issues in Fort Chipewyan, which some 200 kms. down stream from the Alberta oil sands. There are also Athabasca River basin water quality issues that are at issue.
I recently attended the Keepers of the Water Conference in Fort Chipewyan and got some first-hand information and insight about what is going on up there around water and health issues.
The issues received international attention when former Fort McMurray physician, John O’Connor commented on the high rates of unusual cancers in the Ft Chip residents. There is a controversy swirling around Dr. O’Connor coming out of professional complaints filed by Canada Health by he has support from the Alberta Medical Association.
Dr. O’Connor ‘s findings were the subject of a recent documentary film entitled “Downstream.” Well the O’Connor profile and the issues in the documentary are about to get a lot more international attention. The film was just short-listed for an Oscar in the “Best Short Documentary” category.
The Academy Awards are scheduled for February 22, 2009. I wonder how this film will fare in February.
I recently attended the Keepers of the Water Conference in Fort Chipewyan and got some first-hand information and insight about what is going on up there around water and health issues.
The issues received international attention when former Fort McMurray physician, John O’Connor commented on the high rates of unusual cancers in the Ft Chip residents. There is a controversy swirling around Dr. O’Connor coming out of professional complaints filed by Canada Health by he has support from the Alberta Medical Association.
Dr. O’Connor ‘s findings were the subject of a recent documentary film entitled “Downstream.” Well the O’Connor profile and the issues in the documentary are about to get a lot more international attention. The film was just short-listed for an Oscar in the “Best Short Documentary” category.
The Academy Awards are scheduled for February 22, 2009. I wonder how this film will fare in February.
Canada's Wireless World Gets Weirder.
The weird world of wireless in Canada continues to make waves. Hat Tip to Blogger chrisd.ca who quotes a Canadian Press story that Shaw Communications has just announced it will not enter the wireless market and will not be in the cell phone business.
Shaw just spent $190m buying a chunk of the new wireless spectrum to enable it to carry cell phones and multimedia signals. I wonder what they will do with the new spectrum asset now. Obviously sell it to someone…but whom?
This is not a good first step on the federal government strategy to reduce wireless service pricing in Canada by increasing competition by having more providers.
Quebecor Media, a sub of cable company Videotron, announces in the Globe and Mail today that it is investing $800m to launch a wireless network in the next 18 months. They picked up 178 new spectrum licenses for over $550m in July. Quebecor is planning to put ads on smart phones in Quebec and projecting to hold 30% of the Quebec market by 2015.
Earlier this week Bell was in the news with complaints from independent cell phone franchisees over commission issues and has teamed up with Telus to jointly invest in the next generation wireless network but has withdrawn efforts to put fibre-optic cable into homes in Ontario. How will this add to competitiveness’ in the wireless marketplace in Canada and better price deals for consumers?
The market meltdown and the continuing nationalization of the world’s financial systems add to the uncertainty for everyone. It is tough to plan for everyone in these strange days. It is interesting to see two cable companies betting on diametrically opposite directions on new wireless investment.
Shaw just spent $190m buying a chunk of the new wireless spectrum to enable it to carry cell phones and multimedia signals. I wonder what they will do with the new spectrum asset now. Obviously sell it to someone…but whom?
This is not a good first step on the federal government strategy to reduce wireless service pricing in Canada by increasing competition by having more providers.
Quebecor Media, a sub of cable company Videotron, announces in the Globe and Mail today that it is investing $800m to launch a wireless network in the next 18 months. They picked up 178 new spectrum licenses for over $550m in July. Quebecor is planning to put ads on smart phones in Quebec and projecting to hold 30% of the Quebec market by 2015.
Earlier this week Bell was in the news with complaints from independent cell phone franchisees over commission issues and has teamed up with Telus to jointly invest in the next generation wireless network but has withdrawn efforts to put fibre-optic cable into homes in Ontario. How will this add to competitiveness’ in the wireless marketplace in Canada and better price deals for consumers?
The market meltdown and the continuing nationalization of the world’s financial systems add to the uncertainty for everyone. It is tough to plan for everyone in these strange days. It is interesting to see two cable companies betting on diametrically opposite directions on new wireless investment.
Wednesday, October 22, 2008
Premier Stelmach - Alberta Has a Social Infrastructure Deficit Too!
The plight of children under the care of the Government of Alberta is now front page news. It is part of the continuing saga of the social infrastructure deficit in the province that is impacting children, seniors, and those with developmental disabilities, amongst others.
We created an obvious capital and environmental infrastructure deficit in Alberta that is now being addressed with new capital investments and an emerging awareness about reclamation, wetlands, climate change and biodiversity issues, to name a few.
We caused these deficits by paying off the debt and deficit too fast. We applied every loose nickel to debt and deficit and ignored the growth demands of the booming economy as well as the maintenance issues of the as-built infrastructure facilities. We deferred the need to address the environmental implications of our overheated, expanding and accelerating economy as well.
The social infrastructure deficit was caused by the same rush to repayment but it was hidden because those who are harmed by it are the most vulnerable in our society and their over-extended advocates. It was too easy to ignore and the powers that be did!
The last two years has seen more attention being paid to the damage caused to vulnerable Albertans by this neglect – or at least the lack of timely, appropriate and required attention by the powers that be. Recruitment of staff into the Alberta social services sector has been a major challenge because wages, benefits and working conditions are so bad that people rationally take other jobs.
Full disclosure, I am working with the social service sector in the area of supports for Albertans with developmental disabilities. That is a bias but it also provides me with knowledge and facts about the plight of these people and those who support them. I know what I am talking about.
The social infrastructure deficit has been ignored and deferred for far too long. People are being unnecessarily and irreparably harmed as a result. Premier Stelmach needs to get personally engaged in responding to the social infrastructure deficit and investigate what happened and what is happening and then get it fixed.
The first place to start is to start paying the staff who are working in the not-for-profit community based social services sector the same as the unionized provincial employees are paid for doing the same work. Stabilizing the workforce in the sector then enabling the recruitment ands retention of trained staff is foundational to solving the problems of the social infrastructure deficit.
If the social infrastructure deficit is not fixed than Premier Stelmach better stop telling people that Alberta is a “great place to live, work, invest and raise a family.” It is not true for too many Albertans who are at-risk and vulnerable.
We created an obvious capital and environmental infrastructure deficit in Alberta that is now being addressed with new capital investments and an emerging awareness about reclamation, wetlands, climate change and biodiversity issues, to name a few.
We caused these deficits by paying off the debt and deficit too fast. We applied every loose nickel to debt and deficit and ignored the growth demands of the booming economy as well as the maintenance issues of the as-built infrastructure facilities. We deferred the need to address the environmental implications of our overheated, expanding and accelerating economy as well.
The social infrastructure deficit was caused by the same rush to repayment but it was hidden because those who are harmed by it are the most vulnerable in our society and their over-extended advocates. It was too easy to ignore and the powers that be did!
The last two years has seen more attention being paid to the damage caused to vulnerable Albertans by this neglect – or at least the lack of timely, appropriate and required attention by the powers that be. Recruitment of staff into the Alberta social services sector has been a major challenge because wages, benefits and working conditions are so bad that people rationally take other jobs.
Full disclosure, I am working with the social service sector in the area of supports for Albertans with developmental disabilities. That is a bias but it also provides me with knowledge and facts about the plight of these people and those who support them. I know what I am talking about.
The social infrastructure deficit has been ignored and deferred for far too long. People are being unnecessarily and irreparably harmed as a result. Premier Stelmach needs to get personally engaged in responding to the social infrastructure deficit and investigate what happened and what is happening and then get it fixed.
The first place to start is to start paying the staff who are working in the not-for-profit community based social services sector the same as the unionized provincial employees are paid for doing the same work. Stabilizing the workforce in the sector then enabling the recruitment ands retention of trained staff is foundational to solving the problems of the social infrastructure deficit.
If the social infrastructure deficit is not fixed than Premier Stelmach better stop telling people that Alberta is a “great place to live, work, invest and raise a family.” It is not true for too many Albertans who are at-risk and vulnerable.
Monday, October 20, 2008
Old Fashioned Telephone Lines and the SuperNet Last Mile Solution
There is an interesting article by Fil Fraser on Alberta’s fibre-optic SuperNet in the October issue of Alberta Venture magazine. It is entitled “Only So Super” and it is well worth a read. Fil makes the point that the high-speed Internet access has not made its way into rural Alberta homes and businesses yet. That ubiquity of service was the promise of SuperNet but it has not happened – yet!
This is because the “last mile” connection from the public institutional users like hospitals, schools and libraries does not extend to the private citizen user. That so-called “last mile” of connectivity out to the rest of us in our homes, community groups and businesses has not yet been effectively resolved.
There are Internet Service Providers (ISPs) out there trying to resolve the last mile in rural Alberta using wireless and satellite services but with varying degrees of success. Wireless is a capital intensive and difficult public policy process to put up towers all over the place, and it has technical challenges too. The latency in signals from satellite does not serve video conferencing requirements effectively and video conferencing is going to be a major rural Alberta application of the power of the SuperNet. Some are proposing fibre to the home but that is very expensive and hardly necessary for most user’s needs.
Fraser notes “In less than a decade, technology has moved communications from dial-up services to coaxial cable to wireless networks to the nearly limitless, speed-of-light, carrying capacity of fibre-optic cable.” With the SuperNet, that “speed-of-light” fibre-optic is so close but yet so far from serving rural Alberta citizens and businesses. But until the last mile is really resolved, it is still out of reach.
There is an interesting, exciting and elegant alternative to resolving the last mile for the vast majority of rural Albertans. That solution is good old-fashioned copper telephone wire. That well known and familiar technology is already in every home and business in Alberta that has a land-line telephone. The technology has developed now so you can use it connect small town Albertans to the SuperNet using the reliable, robust, cheap, and ubiquitous copper wire telephone lines - with no new capital costs. Everything old is new again!
But there is a catch. The SuperNet was built by Bell and they are responsible to resolve the last mile issue. Bell’s position is wireless and satellite are enough to resolve the last mile issue, and they may be legally correct. However, As Fil Fraser noted, the accelerating use of video and video conferencing as the new normal expectation for Internet use, means theses “solutions” are not good enough anymore.
Copper wire is a winning solution to deal with the increasing demands of modern Internet users, especially for the new trends towards video and high-definition video conferencing. Here is the catch. All that copper wire in Alberta is owned by Telus and they claim this elegant and obvious last mile solution for rural Albertans is unworkable.
In Fraser’s article Telus likens the use of copper wire for SuperNet access would be like asking them to “build another company a black-and-white TV network instead of the new HDTV network we are halfway through building.” What? I am no techie but I understand Telus uses its copper wire for its own Hi-Def TV service as well as for their DSL Internet service. What is not workable about that?
Telus is suggesting their efforts to place their fibre-optic cable “across much of the province” would require them “…to actually pull out some of that hardware and go back to copper.” Why? I understand they don’t pullout copper wire. They just lay the fibre right beside it. But I am not techie! It would be illogical to pull out copper wire if it was able to provide high speed reliable and robust Internet service capable of video and high definition video conferencing for rural Albertans.
If Telus is laying optic fibre beside copper wire why are they even trying to duplicate the SuperNet? That fibre-optic system was already paid for by Alberta taxpayers? Why wouldn’t Telus access SuperNet themselves and provide all their new services to customers on that system? Saving the capital costs of installing a parallel fibre-optic service seems like a no-brainer and the funds could be used in other ways to improve shareholder value. Am I missing something here?
There is some good news. While the Internet and wireless is unregulated and priced by so-called competitive market forces, good old fashioned copper telephone wire access is still regulated...by the CRTC. So the Internet Centre, the very first commercial Internet Service Provider in Alberta, has taken the matter in hand and has applied to the CRTC for a regulatory ruling. They have filed an application with the CRTC for Telus to provide ISPs the access necessary to their copper wire to provide high-speed Internet service to rural Albertans.
If the Internet Centre is successful then the 180 Alberta communities who currently have no Internet service can get it and get SuperNet access to boot. If you have a landline telephone in a community in Alberta, you will be able to get high-speed Internet service that is capable of handling video and high- definition video conferencing at least the same cost as wireless if not less. Don't you just love competition?
I am no techie, but I have talked to knowledgeable telecom consultants about this unloaded copper wire approach and everyone agrees that it is a great solution. I am advised that SaskTel is already using its copper wire for high-speed Internet access in small communities in Saskatchewan. One consultant told me “Just because copper wire is buried, does not mean it is dead.”
The CRTC advises that there is a 90% chance they will have their decision out before Christmas. Cost effective, reliable and robust high-speed high capacity Internet on copper wire they already have in their homes and businesses would make a nice Christmas present for rural Albertans. Keep your fingers crossed rural Alberta.
This is because the “last mile” connection from the public institutional users like hospitals, schools and libraries does not extend to the private citizen user. That so-called “last mile” of connectivity out to the rest of us in our homes, community groups and businesses has not yet been effectively resolved.
There are Internet Service Providers (ISPs) out there trying to resolve the last mile in rural Alberta using wireless and satellite services but with varying degrees of success. Wireless is a capital intensive and difficult public policy process to put up towers all over the place, and it has technical challenges too. The latency in signals from satellite does not serve video conferencing requirements effectively and video conferencing is going to be a major rural Alberta application of the power of the SuperNet. Some are proposing fibre to the home but that is very expensive and hardly necessary for most user’s needs.
Fraser notes “In less than a decade, technology has moved communications from dial-up services to coaxial cable to wireless networks to the nearly limitless, speed-of-light, carrying capacity of fibre-optic cable.” With the SuperNet, that “speed-of-light” fibre-optic is so close but yet so far from serving rural Alberta citizens and businesses. But until the last mile is really resolved, it is still out of reach.
There is an interesting, exciting and elegant alternative to resolving the last mile for the vast majority of rural Albertans. That solution is good old-fashioned copper telephone wire. That well known and familiar technology is already in every home and business in Alberta that has a land-line telephone. The technology has developed now so you can use it connect small town Albertans to the SuperNet using the reliable, robust, cheap, and ubiquitous copper wire telephone lines - with no new capital costs. Everything old is new again!
But there is a catch. The SuperNet was built by Bell and they are responsible to resolve the last mile issue. Bell’s position is wireless and satellite are enough to resolve the last mile issue, and they may be legally correct. However, As Fil Fraser noted, the accelerating use of video and video conferencing as the new normal expectation for Internet use, means theses “solutions” are not good enough anymore.
Copper wire is a winning solution to deal with the increasing demands of modern Internet users, especially for the new trends towards video and high-definition video conferencing. Here is the catch. All that copper wire in Alberta is owned by Telus and they claim this elegant and obvious last mile solution for rural Albertans is unworkable.
In Fraser’s article Telus likens the use of copper wire for SuperNet access would be like asking them to “build another company a black-and-white TV network instead of the new HDTV network we are halfway through building.” What? I am no techie but I understand Telus uses its copper wire for its own Hi-Def TV service as well as for their DSL Internet service. What is not workable about that?
Telus is suggesting their efforts to place their fibre-optic cable “across much of the province” would require them “…to actually pull out some of that hardware and go back to copper.” Why? I understand they don’t pullout copper wire. They just lay the fibre right beside it. But I am not techie! It would be illogical to pull out copper wire if it was able to provide high speed reliable and robust Internet service capable of video and high definition video conferencing for rural Albertans.
If Telus is laying optic fibre beside copper wire why are they even trying to duplicate the SuperNet? That fibre-optic system was already paid for by Alberta taxpayers? Why wouldn’t Telus access SuperNet themselves and provide all their new services to customers on that system? Saving the capital costs of installing a parallel fibre-optic service seems like a no-brainer and the funds could be used in other ways to improve shareholder value. Am I missing something here?
There is some good news. While the Internet and wireless is unregulated and priced by so-called competitive market forces, good old fashioned copper telephone wire access is still regulated...by the CRTC. So the Internet Centre, the very first commercial Internet Service Provider in Alberta, has taken the matter in hand and has applied to the CRTC for a regulatory ruling. They have filed an application with the CRTC for Telus to provide ISPs the access necessary to their copper wire to provide high-speed Internet service to rural Albertans.
If the Internet Centre is successful then the 180 Alberta communities who currently have no Internet service can get it and get SuperNet access to boot. If you have a landline telephone in a community in Alberta, you will be able to get high-speed Internet service that is capable of handling video and high- definition video conferencing at least the same cost as wireless if not less. Don't you just love competition?
I am no techie, but I have talked to knowledgeable telecom consultants about this unloaded copper wire approach and everyone agrees that it is a great solution. I am advised that SaskTel is already using its copper wire for high-speed Internet access in small communities in Saskatchewan. One consultant told me “Just because copper wire is buried, does not mean it is dead.”
The CRTC advises that there is a 90% chance they will have their decision out before Christmas. Cost effective, reliable and robust high-speed high capacity Internet on copper wire they already have in their homes and businesses would make a nice Christmas present for rural Albertans. Keep your fingers crossed rural Alberta.
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