Saturday, October 25, 2008
A Nightmare Video About Not Voting
I have been pushing the responsibility to vote in an informed manner for months on this Blog. Here is a video nightmare of me failing to do my civic duty if I were an American. http://www.cnnbcvideo.com/index.html?nid=QWwp3woUAuJwaLIxPF.B3TI3MjA0OTY-&id=
Friday, October 24, 2008
Save Democracy - Lie to a Pollster
So we already know we can’t trust politicians. But do we dare believe polls now or not? Obviously we can’t rely on them as they become less and less reliable. According to a great piece by Siri Agrell in the Globe and Mail today, the American pollsters are all over the map on tracking opinions on the road to the White House.
Pollsters are showing results from 13 different pollsters we see claims of an Obama lead ranging from 14 points to 1 point. Can they all be right? Can any of them be right? The polling methodologies are the culprits. The old-school techniques are missing major portions of the population because they don’t connect with cell phone users…lots of youth are not in the results.
They use automatic dialing systems and lots of folks will not talk to a machine. More built-in inaccuracies are “normalized.” Some only use Internet pull techniques and then apply variables like multipliers to try and adjust for skewed data.
Many national polls have very small sample sizes for regional reporting but that does not seem to be any deterrence from pollsters still making statements about regional findings. Other efforts to account for wide ranging differences is be averaging all polls, the so-called poll of polls. This is still no way to get better polling accuracy because garbage-in/garbage-out is not resolved by averaging all the garbage.
Canadian pollsters were all caught in the 2006 election predictions because they failed to recognize the impact of last minute shifts and final impulse decisions in undecided voters. This election they did rolling polls over the weekend before Election Day and came up with much closer results.
Mistrust of pundits, politicians and now pollsters by the public is a prudent default position for anyone who wants to know what is really going on in politics today.
Pollsters are showing results from 13 different pollsters we see claims of an Obama lead ranging from 14 points to 1 point. Can they all be right? Can any of them be right? The polling methodologies are the culprits. The old-school techniques are missing major portions of the population because they don’t connect with cell phone users…lots of youth are not in the results.
They use automatic dialing systems and lots of folks will not talk to a machine. More built-in inaccuracies are “normalized.” Some only use Internet pull techniques and then apply variables like multipliers to try and adjust for skewed data.
Many national polls have very small sample sizes for regional reporting but that does not seem to be any deterrence from pollsters still making statements about regional findings. Other efforts to account for wide ranging differences is be averaging all polls, the so-called poll of polls. This is still no way to get better polling accuracy because garbage-in/garbage-out is not resolved by averaging all the garbage.
Canadian pollsters were all caught in the 2006 election predictions because they failed to recognize the impact of last minute shifts and final impulse decisions in undecided voters. This election they did rolling polls over the weekend before Election Day and came up with much closer results.
Mistrust of pundits, politicians and now pollsters by the public is a prudent default position for anyone who wants to know what is really going on in politics today.
Thursday, October 23, 2008
Dr. O'Connor Cancer Documentary on Oscar Short List
There is an increasing awareness and concern over the health issues in Fort Chipewyan, which some 200 kms. down stream from the Alberta oil sands. There are also Athabasca River basin water quality issues that are at issue.
I recently attended the Keepers of the Water Conference in Fort Chipewyan and got some first-hand information and insight about what is going on up there around water and health issues.
The issues received international attention when former Fort McMurray physician, John O’Connor commented on the high rates of unusual cancers in the Ft Chip residents. There is a controversy swirling around Dr. O’Connor coming out of professional complaints filed by Canada Health by he has support from the Alberta Medical Association.
Dr. O’Connor ‘s findings were the subject of a recent documentary film entitled “Downstream.” Well the O’Connor profile and the issues in the documentary are about to get a lot more international attention. The film was just short-listed for an Oscar in the “Best Short Documentary” category.
The Academy Awards are scheduled for February 22, 2009. I wonder how this film will fare in February.
I recently attended the Keepers of the Water Conference in Fort Chipewyan and got some first-hand information and insight about what is going on up there around water and health issues.
The issues received international attention when former Fort McMurray physician, John O’Connor commented on the high rates of unusual cancers in the Ft Chip residents. There is a controversy swirling around Dr. O’Connor coming out of professional complaints filed by Canada Health by he has support from the Alberta Medical Association.
Dr. O’Connor ‘s findings were the subject of a recent documentary film entitled “Downstream.” Well the O’Connor profile and the issues in the documentary are about to get a lot more international attention. The film was just short-listed for an Oscar in the “Best Short Documentary” category.
The Academy Awards are scheduled for February 22, 2009. I wonder how this film will fare in February.
Canada's Wireless World Gets Weirder.
The weird world of wireless in Canada continues to make waves. Hat Tip to Blogger chrisd.ca who quotes a Canadian Press story that Shaw Communications has just announced it will not enter the wireless market and will not be in the cell phone business.
Shaw just spent $190m buying a chunk of the new wireless spectrum to enable it to carry cell phones and multimedia signals. I wonder what they will do with the new spectrum asset now. Obviously sell it to someone…but whom?
This is not a good first step on the federal government strategy to reduce wireless service pricing in Canada by increasing competition by having more providers.
Quebecor Media, a sub of cable company Videotron, announces in the Globe and Mail today that it is investing $800m to launch a wireless network in the next 18 months. They picked up 178 new spectrum licenses for over $550m in July. Quebecor is planning to put ads on smart phones in Quebec and projecting to hold 30% of the Quebec market by 2015.
Earlier this week Bell was in the news with complaints from independent cell phone franchisees over commission issues and has teamed up with Telus to jointly invest in the next generation wireless network but has withdrawn efforts to put fibre-optic cable into homes in Ontario. How will this add to competitiveness’ in the wireless marketplace in Canada and better price deals for consumers?
The market meltdown and the continuing nationalization of the world’s financial systems add to the uncertainty for everyone. It is tough to plan for everyone in these strange days. It is interesting to see two cable companies betting on diametrically opposite directions on new wireless investment.
Shaw just spent $190m buying a chunk of the new wireless spectrum to enable it to carry cell phones and multimedia signals. I wonder what they will do with the new spectrum asset now. Obviously sell it to someone…but whom?
This is not a good first step on the federal government strategy to reduce wireless service pricing in Canada by increasing competition by having more providers.
Quebecor Media, a sub of cable company Videotron, announces in the Globe and Mail today that it is investing $800m to launch a wireless network in the next 18 months. They picked up 178 new spectrum licenses for over $550m in July. Quebecor is planning to put ads on smart phones in Quebec and projecting to hold 30% of the Quebec market by 2015.
Earlier this week Bell was in the news with complaints from independent cell phone franchisees over commission issues and has teamed up with Telus to jointly invest in the next generation wireless network but has withdrawn efforts to put fibre-optic cable into homes in Ontario. How will this add to competitiveness’ in the wireless marketplace in Canada and better price deals for consumers?
The market meltdown and the continuing nationalization of the world’s financial systems add to the uncertainty for everyone. It is tough to plan for everyone in these strange days. It is interesting to see two cable companies betting on diametrically opposite directions on new wireless investment.
Wednesday, October 22, 2008
Premier Stelmach - Alberta Has a Social Infrastructure Deficit Too!
The plight of children under the care of the Government of Alberta is now front page news. It is part of the continuing saga of the social infrastructure deficit in the province that is impacting children, seniors, and those with developmental disabilities, amongst others.
We created an obvious capital and environmental infrastructure deficit in Alberta that is now being addressed with new capital investments and an emerging awareness about reclamation, wetlands, climate change and biodiversity issues, to name a few.
We caused these deficits by paying off the debt and deficit too fast. We applied every loose nickel to debt and deficit and ignored the growth demands of the booming economy as well as the maintenance issues of the as-built infrastructure facilities. We deferred the need to address the environmental implications of our overheated, expanding and accelerating economy as well.
The social infrastructure deficit was caused by the same rush to repayment but it was hidden because those who are harmed by it are the most vulnerable in our society and their over-extended advocates. It was too easy to ignore and the powers that be did!
The last two years has seen more attention being paid to the damage caused to vulnerable Albertans by this neglect – or at least the lack of timely, appropriate and required attention by the powers that be. Recruitment of staff into the Alberta social services sector has been a major challenge because wages, benefits and working conditions are so bad that people rationally take other jobs.
Full disclosure, I am working with the social service sector in the area of supports for Albertans with developmental disabilities. That is a bias but it also provides me with knowledge and facts about the plight of these people and those who support them. I know what I am talking about.
The social infrastructure deficit has been ignored and deferred for far too long. People are being unnecessarily and irreparably harmed as a result. Premier Stelmach needs to get personally engaged in responding to the social infrastructure deficit and investigate what happened and what is happening and then get it fixed.
The first place to start is to start paying the staff who are working in the not-for-profit community based social services sector the same as the unionized provincial employees are paid for doing the same work. Stabilizing the workforce in the sector then enabling the recruitment ands retention of trained staff is foundational to solving the problems of the social infrastructure deficit.
If the social infrastructure deficit is not fixed than Premier Stelmach better stop telling people that Alberta is a “great place to live, work, invest and raise a family.” It is not true for too many Albertans who are at-risk and vulnerable.
We created an obvious capital and environmental infrastructure deficit in Alberta that is now being addressed with new capital investments and an emerging awareness about reclamation, wetlands, climate change and biodiversity issues, to name a few.
We caused these deficits by paying off the debt and deficit too fast. We applied every loose nickel to debt and deficit and ignored the growth demands of the booming economy as well as the maintenance issues of the as-built infrastructure facilities. We deferred the need to address the environmental implications of our overheated, expanding and accelerating economy as well.
The social infrastructure deficit was caused by the same rush to repayment but it was hidden because those who are harmed by it are the most vulnerable in our society and their over-extended advocates. It was too easy to ignore and the powers that be did!
The last two years has seen more attention being paid to the damage caused to vulnerable Albertans by this neglect – or at least the lack of timely, appropriate and required attention by the powers that be. Recruitment of staff into the Alberta social services sector has been a major challenge because wages, benefits and working conditions are so bad that people rationally take other jobs.
Full disclosure, I am working with the social service sector in the area of supports for Albertans with developmental disabilities. That is a bias but it also provides me with knowledge and facts about the plight of these people and those who support them. I know what I am talking about.
The social infrastructure deficit has been ignored and deferred for far too long. People are being unnecessarily and irreparably harmed as a result. Premier Stelmach needs to get personally engaged in responding to the social infrastructure deficit and investigate what happened and what is happening and then get it fixed.
The first place to start is to start paying the staff who are working in the not-for-profit community based social services sector the same as the unionized provincial employees are paid for doing the same work. Stabilizing the workforce in the sector then enabling the recruitment ands retention of trained staff is foundational to solving the problems of the social infrastructure deficit.
If the social infrastructure deficit is not fixed than Premier Stelmach better stop telling people that Alberta is a “great place to live, work, invest and raise a family.” It is not true for too many Albertans who are at-risk and vulnerable.
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