Harper Meets First Ministers Nov 10 - Expect Budget Cuts!

As PM Harper goes into the First Minister's meeting on Nov 10 he has some serious ammunition to back a dramatic cut in government spending in response to the slowing economy. The Ipsos Reid poll out today says 82% of Canadians support government spending cuts as the most appropriate response. Only 43% support running deficits...which is just a tax on the future anyway. As for tax hikes to sustain government services in the slowdown...only 17% are on side.

The provincial breakdowns are based on such a small sample size that they should not be take seriously but they are all pretty much in the same range including Quebec. The attitude about how the provinces need to respond to slowing economic times is also to undertake spending cuts.

Harper as a fundamentalist conservative will want to reduce the size of government and the footprint of government in the lives of Canadians. He will be keen to remove the foot of government on the wallets of citizens too so tax cuts may still be in the offing.

That will mean we can expect more program cuts in what he considers non-essential services. Artists beware! I think he will not cut taxes but will scrap the silly election tinkering for subsidies on things like first-time home buyers. He will still pursue the income splitting for seniors still and may even keep the subsidy for things like piano lessons for kids. Family values stuff and in tough times that may be a very good thing.

We can expect a mini-budget in November, shortly after the November 10th First Ministers meeting. If he look like he is facing a deficit in the current year, I expect some cuts sooner than later. He will want to ensure that he lives up to the no deficit in the current year campaign promise. He can make the cuts easily, especially with what these poll numbers say about how Canadians feel about government deficits.

Alberta has done its current budget based on $78 oil. With oil at about $63 things are serious. The demise of the Loonie down to $.77 has helped adjust the impact of the commodity price decline. My sources tell me everything in Alberta's pending budget work is back on the table except for the $2B dedicated to carbon capture and sequestration. That is going forward come hell or high water.

Hunkering down and batten hatches to weather the growing economic storm seems to be the general consensus and shared sensibility of Canadians going forward. We are just at the beginning of experiencing the serious consequences of this economic meltdown. The worst is yet to come. I just hope that the social infrastructure deficit is not still ignored as it has been for the past decade or so. It is a vital role of government and community together that demands an engaged and empathetic approach.

I am off to a Bob Dylan concert tomorrow night. As he says - The Times They Are A-Changin'

Confessions of a Political Blogger

I have been Blogging for just over 2 years. Roger Gibbins, President of the Canada West Foundation asked me to write a personal perspective about my experiences as a Blogger. My first person piece was recently published in Canada West Foundation's quarterly magazine "Window on the West."

It was not published electronically but we have it on the Cambridge Strategies Inc. website. Here is the link and I hope you enjoy it.

http://www.cambridgestrategies.com/WoW_Chapman%20Autumn%202008.pdf

Is Harper Cooling on "Get Tough On Crime"?

There are media reports that the Harper Party has its Law-and-Order Get Tough On Crime policy agenda on shifting sands again. They ran into potential constitutional and procedural issues on some of the more right-wing issues form the 2006 election. Their 2008 “law-and-order” platform policy was not only late in the election campaign; it was pretty skinny compared to past efforts.


The Cons enthusiasm for elimination of prisoner voting rights and the abolishing of the artistic merit defense for child porn have been buried and forgotten. The news reports indicate many other election campaign promises in the get-tough-on crime category are being abandoned by Harper as well.


The list is interesting and long including some I agree with some of the policy efforts. I especially like creating mandatory consecutive sentences and no more concurrent sentences for multiple violent sexual offenders and no more additional credit for pre-trial time in custody. I wonder why he is backing off this promise.


Harper seems to have gone soft on terror with the lack of urgency indicated with still no appointment of a national security advisor. Can the same be said for the still outstanding initiative for a national strategy on organized crime?

Now we need to get Harper to back off on legislating life sentences for 14 year olds and get Omar Khadr back home to Canada.

Anchorage Daily News Backs Obama - Not Palin

It is not encouraging for McCain-Palin ticket when the Anchorage Daily News is even backing Obama. Too hard not to see the face and fictions of George Bush when you think of McCain as the faux-maverick.

Will Canada reject the radical right and return to its classic liberal values in the next election? I'm thinking so. Tough times ahead and we see a legitimate role for government in this country. We in Canada cringe at the thought that a government that redistributes wealth for the common good is somehow acting inappropriately "Socialist." This socialist labelling is the most recent reactive foray by McCain into attacking Obama as not being fit for governing.

Labels and misleading memes seem to be the essence of the Republican and other far-right Conservative political tactics these days. It is getting "old" in America and is seen as dangerous domestically and in foreign policy approaches too. Lets hope Canada returns to it socially progressive and fiscally conservative roots coupled with a political passion for the planet as a renewed common cause.

A Nightmare Video About Not Voting

I have been pushing the responsibility to vote in an informed manner for months on this Blog. Here is a video nightmare of me failing to do my civic duty if I were an American. http://www.cnnbcvideo.com/index.html?nid=QWwp3woUAuJwaLIxPF.B3TI3MjA0OTY-&id=