Why Did Our Government Avoid Announcing the Premier-Pelosi Meeting?

This week should be a game changing opportunity for re-framing the oil sands narrative in the minds of some of the most powerful political personalities in the United States of America.  The meeting this Thursday with Nancy Pelosi the Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives, arguably the most powerful woman in America, could be and should be a game changer for Alberta and our oil sands to be understood in a broader and deeper context than merely "dirty oil"

The credible case for oil sands cannot be made by pushing the investment agenda or the jobs advantages.  There is so much more to the potential than those concerns, vital as they are.  There is a need to have an integrated conversation about the oil sands in terms of environmental elements of land, water and air impacts.  There is a need to talk about health and habitat implications and mitigation.  There is a need to talk about science and technology advances and its potential elements for a cleaner future for oil sands development.

There is a need to do all of this to dispel the mythology of dirty oil but not in the context of it not being so bad when you consider it in comparison with the British Petroleum Gulf of Mexico disaster.  Being better apple in a bad barrel is not good enough for Albertans.  We Albertans want to be proud of the oil sands as well as being able to prosper from them.  Being the best of a bad lot is not good enough.

That said I do feel there is a need to compare the so-called "dirty oil" from the Alberta oil sands with the "blood oil" from the other US sources.  Considering the Presidential level false pretense of weapons of mass destruction to justify an invasion of Iraq and the waste and blood that deception created I wonder is we don't need a broader definition of "dirty oil."  The American government is guilty of creating really dirty oil that involves supporting war, terror, death and corruption, both aboard and domestically..  I hope someone is prepared to point that out to Speaker Pelosi this week.  We need to frame the responsible development of the oil sands as a way out of that political, moral and ethical quagmire for the Americans.

The Iraq war was really about deceit, political hubris and securing an oil supply for the United States.  It was not about freedom and democracy for Iraqi citizens as the ultra conservative rhetoric out of the White House would want us to believe.  The George Bush political pantomime of the "Mission Accomplished" performance n the on the deck of an aircraft carrier shows the depth of the political posturing that regime was prepared to resort to in order to sustain its hold on power.  Anyone see a parallel to the current Harper regime in Canada?

The terrorism fostered by the funding of extremist religious fundamentalist enabled by the Bush-Regime friendly royal family of Saudi Arabia is another aspect of "dirty oil" to my mind.  Then look at the social costs in civilian deaths and the political corruption in Venezuela and you can add more granularity to the picture of "dirty oil."  There are many more examples of blood oil as dirty oil in the world that are as least partly due to past American foreign and energy policies.  

None of this justifies Albertans being complacent about insisting that the oil sands be developed in a much more environmentally and socially responsible way.  But to lecture Alberta about our "dirty oil" and to allow the BP blowout to happen and to invade and support corrupt regimes around the globe in exchange for domestic fossil fuel supply is hypercritical in the extreme.

The opportunity to provide a more integrated and honest narrative about the potential of the oil sands as an energy resources to the American market has to be clearly and persuasively presented.  If anyone making these points needs notes to make these points one should wonder if they are not sufficiently akin and aligned with the core values of Albertans around our oil sand development.

The point is to be realistic about our challenges in responsible oil sands development.  Pelosi has to hear and the Premier has to make the point that the oil sands are a viable transitional energy alternative that can relieve the human costs of corruption, death and terror resulting from these other truly dirty oil situations the American people find themselves supporting..

This does not let Albertans off the ownership hook to assure the world we can develop this enormously important resource in a responsible and sustainable way with wisdom and integrity.  It is significant that this meeting with Speaker Pelosi is happening in Ottawa with the Premiers of Alberta and Saskatchewan plus key Influentials invited too, like Marlo Raynolds of the highly respected Pembina Institute. (BTW Marlo is a Friday night presenter along with me at RebootAlberta 3.0 in Edmonton Nov 5-6) There will be a  balance of perspectives on the oil sands available to Speaker Pelosi for sure and it is a credit to her that balance is happening.

It is more than a little disturbing to note that this meeting with Pelosi was not announced by Premier Stelmach's office.  As Graham Thomson notes in his recent column, the Alberta public would not have known about it likely until after the fact if not for the fact others were invited and announced they were going.

This lack of public disclosure that our Premier is attending this meeting looks to me like a lapse of accountability and transparency by our government - and it is disturbing.  We Albertans own the oil sands.  We have a right to know what is going on in relation to them  What is our government doing in meeting the stewardship responsibility of our resources, especially the controversial oil sands, is our public business.

The elected representatives are not the absolute rulers over the development of our oil sands.  They are merely our proxy holders as owners.  They are elected to represent our best interests.  They owe us a duty to prove to us that they are serving those ends.  They should be conducting themselves in the service of our best interests openly and honestly and with integrity.   Citizens of Alberta have to start acting like owners of their natural resources and not merely employees for the industry tenants.   The industry tenants need to earn our respect to sustain any social licenses to exploit our natural resources for the benefit of shareholders and citizens.  Our governments need to learn some humility as servant leaders and be dissuaded from assuming they are entitled to govern without being accountable, transparent and honest with the voter.

To not disclose this meeting as part of the regular release of the weekly schedule of the Premier is an indication of a personal and institutional character flaw.  It is not good enough and further erodes the public confidence in the capacity and truthfulness of this government.

There are times when confidentiality is required.  On those occasions we owners still need to know why it is required and be able to trust the integrity of those entrusted to act on our behalf in such confidential circumstances. That is not the case now in terms of being informed as to why s discussion must be confidential  or can we trust the integrity and accountability of our representatives who are involved in such confidential discussions.

Any of secret meetings held behind closed doors by our government proxy holders are inevitably with self-serving parties.  That is why they are a serious source of citizen suspicion.  There is  that there is more back room self-interested collusion going and that is totally inappropriate.  There is plenty of evidence that the current government of Alberta has at best lost the benefit of the doubt that they are to be trusted and believed.  To not disclose the Premier-Pelosi meeting unnecessarily adds to the suspicion and distrust.

Democracy is founded on trust and confidence of the citizenry towards those to whom we delegate authority over us to make decisions on our behalf as informed engaged voters in meaningful elections. I know that is a fiction in Alberta and too many other dissolving democracies.  The Pelosi meeting was a perfect opportunity for our government to show they are worthy of our trust and to justify our confidence in dealing on our behalf with the American mis-perceptions about "dirty oil."

The way this high-level policy event has been handled so far shows that the default of the powers that bee is towards political posturing and secrecy.  That is trumping the greater duty to govern with a sense of stewardship and sustainability with integrity, accountability, honesty and transparency.  Instead they have just reinforced our worst suspicions about how poorly we are governed instead of redeeming themselves by a gesture towards restoring public trust and confidence. I don't hold any hope that the Wildrose Alliance Party would be any better if not worse given their secretive and significant financial reliance on the Calgary based energy sector now.

As thoughtful and responsible Albertans we have to get past our defeatist attitude and insist upon or create another viable political alternative.  To stay in a torpor means the future choices will be between an exclusively market driven govern philosophy or a reactionary social conservative option.  Both are too restrictive to meet our potential and responsibility to aspire be more than the best  place in the world to becoming the best place for the world. That is the preferred future for the Alberta I want to achieve.

If you want a progressive political culture in the Next Alberta register now for RebootAlberta 3.0 at www.rebootalberta.org

Haley Simons and Other Rebooters Are Taking Action.

So one of the life lessons I am learning from my encounter with the concept of Rebooting Alberta is the energy that is starting to emerge from individuals who have come to the Reboot Alberta community.  One of the most animated new activists is Haley Simons.  She has taken up the crusade for Creative Alberta with an enthusiasm that is infectious and soon to be viral with the energy she has and the traction she is getting.

A concert pianist with a PhD in music Haley is another Ordinary Miracle Edmontonian who wants to see positive change and is taking personal responsibility to create and be the change she wants.  She is typical of what I see emerging from the early start of a progressive citizen's movement in Alberta less than a year ago.  More and more we see people taking action to make a difference in the communities where they live physically or intellectually or emotionally.

I met Haley on the phone when I was at a local food conference in Drayton Valley for the Grande Alberta Economic Region.  She said she was give my number and told to call me by Senator Tom Banks.  Tom is a long time friend and one of my early mentors in the arts and culture world as used to be more immersed in and miss that involvement as I have shifted my personal focus on to politics, democracy and governance.

Haley regaled me with her idea of getting Edmonton and perhaps Alberta to be one of the internationally recognized "Districts of Creativity."  She noted this was a new initiative but had already connected with certain communities in Flanders, Catalonia, China, France, Scotland, Germany, India, Finland, and Italy I immediately invited her to attend Reboot 2.0 and promised her she would find her "Tribe."  She came to Reboot and she did find her tribe and she got engaged as a responsive and responsible citizen.  Now she is taking a leadership role in establishing CreativeAlberta...and writing a blog called SimonsSays. Here is a link to her first post.

So welcome her to the blogosphere and visit her often.  She will soon be on the www.rebootalberta.org blog roll and mine too so you can keep in touch.  Follow her on Twitter too @haleysimons.  For a chance to meet the other Haley - the concert pianist - give yourself a treat and listen to her here.  http://www.haleysimons.com/video1.htm

If you want to know more and become involved in CreativeAlberta and meet Haley in person come to RebootAlberta 3.0 Nov 5-6 in Edmonton.  Registration and details are a click away here 




If you want a progressive political culture in the Next Alberta register now for RebootAlberta 3.0 at www.rebootalberta.org

Science Around Athabasca River Toxins Raises Questions.

INTRODUCTION

I have been following the commentary and mainstream media reports on the issues around the recent release of a scientific study about amount and source of toxins in parts of the Athabasca River.  For those of you not in the loop the context is a concern about the levels, concentrations and source of certain toxins in portions of that river.   The other concern is the differences of opinion between Dr. David Schindler’s study and the 

Alberta government’s claims from their own studies on the river system.

There are a number of serious concerns that focus on the environmental impacts of the oil sand development including  the responsibility to do ecological monitoring and the integrity of those processes, the various findings and the implications of any results...just to name a few.  Problem is we don’t see public disclosure of all the data and don’t really know all about what is actually being monitored.

A media based yelling match between scientists over the integrity of their respective data is not helpful. The sniping between environmentalist and government is tedious at best.  The sense that industry is turning a blind eye on these matters to ensure investment returns continue unabated is not helpful.  It is not just damaging to any useful public understanding of what is really happening.  This is harmful to the overarching need to ensure develop the oil sands in a prosperous, responsible and sustainable way.

TIME FOR AN ADULT CONVERSATION ON ECOLOGICAL MONITORING:

All of these unhelpful and harmful things have been happening around the recent comments and rhetoric about Athabasca River toxin levels, concentrations sources and implications. The public knows there is a need for an adult conversation about all of this, and lead by some adult in authority.  The first indication of any adult-based governance leadership I have seen comes from Premier Stelmach.  He advisedly stayed silent on the early contributions to the controversy.  His first utterances have been solid and sound in asking for the university and government scientist to get together and compare data and methodologies and to help us get to the truth of toxins in this river system.  Truth in science is always a proto-truth.  It is true until disproven by a better truth.  Nothing is absolute and progress is marked by new science supplanting previous “truth.”  So don’t get all absolutist on the science – it is not the nature of science.

As a citizen of Alberta and an owner of the oil sands, I want to know the facts about what is happening in the Athabasca River system.  I want to know what my government, as my ownership proxy holder, is doing to steward this resource development.  I what to know what the oil sands industry, as my tenants, are doing to responsibly generate the wealth of the resource and protecting the environment and habitat at the same time.    

What are these two agents of the public interest doing together to make sound and accountable decisions about the long-term responsible development of my resource?  I want reliable authoritative independent assurance that my oil sands are being developed based on the best evidence-based science available...and that the search for the best science is an on-going operational principle for all those involved. 

As a result, my review of the river toxins controversy is in a governance context more than a political or through a science lens.  I see the politics being played out in ways that dismays me.  It is more about positioning messages and preserving power than seeking sound policy or stewardship approaches.  Due to such contemptible political posturing we have a serious democratic deficit in Alberta.  Couple that with an adversarial/advocacy system that is more about an absurd theatre of false choices instead of thoughtfully designed and effective presented policy options we fail to see how or governance model is helping to move us forward.

I can’t comment on the science involved or the reporting of it because I don’t know enough about it.  However, like Premier Stelmach, I also want to know what is happening t the health of the Athabasca River.  I want to understand what is happening and have the implications of what is happening clearly explained to me.   Equally important I want to be able to trust the integrity of the experts and the policy makers who make important decisions on my behalf as a citizen, presumably based on the advice of the experts and their advisers.

WHO CAN WE TRUST TO DO THE RIGHT THING?

So instead of adding to the heat around the water issues (and others) in the Athabasca River, I hope to focus some light around the importance of getting  to the bottom of the toxin levels, sources and concentrations – and right now.  I think we citizens need to put the scientists, the environmentalists, the politicians, the industry leaders to a values test around everything they do in oil sand development. 

Some recent research my firm has just done about Albertan values.  It shows that we feel there are certain values that need to dominate public policy and politics in Alberta.  They are Integrity, Honesty, Accountability, Transparency, Fiscal Responsibility and Environmental Stewardship.  We also have to apply those values to ourselves along with Personal Responsibility as we assess the information we get and how we come to judge our policy makers and their decisions.

I want my comfort level about this and other issues relating to oil sands development to be elevated too.  I want to be assured that the oil sands are being developed in the best way possible to realize the inherent prosperity, protect the environment and improve the quality of living in the province.    I am not satisfied with an old and outdated insurance approach to the administration of oil sands development.   We seem to be offered that with the current government monitoring of the river system. 

As I understand it, the industry pays for the water monitoring in the Athabasca River.  The government contracts out the ecological monitoring but I don’t know who does the work and even if they do it using the best science available or on some other terms they are told to use?  I also don’t get to see the monitoring results because the government does not disclose them. 

Ironically any oil sands monitoring done by industry is disclosed but my information is my government does not publicly disclose results of their monitoring.  Why is that?  If there is a problem and damage is done to the environment somebody will “pay” by writing a cheque for a fine or with their job.  But it is always after the fact when the damage has been done. Not good enough in this situation.

The conservative anti-intellectual attitude of the old Klein government made sure we were ill-advised, under-informed and kept ignorant about implications of the complex consequences of oil sands activity.  As long as the money kept rolling in Albertans were supposed to be satisfied.  And to our collective discredit as citizens, we bought into that mentality for the most part.  Those of us who didn't buy-in turned off and settled for indifference and disillusionment instead of standing up and calling for a different political culture.  We disengaged and left the political playing field to right-wing partisans who by and large seem to determine the public policy direction for the province these days. 

If I wanted a preventative approach to oil sands development I would we settle for an ensurance approach.  Here we get “best practices” as an operational model but we tend to not impose those best practices very stringently on the existing operations.  In fact if we “grandfather” these best practices on existing projects we get old problems persisting.  We don’t clean up for past sins unless there is a major crisis and then we react with investigations and task forces and commissions in order to make new rules, regulations, policies and laws. Again after the fact of some form of systemic failure.

The new policy, we always get told, is stronger so that people cannot easily take their legal responsibilities for granted.  But we tend to under fund any inspection, monitoring or enforcement to save money instead of really ensuring performance.  Corporate Social Responsibility efforts came into vogue by industry to show that they are the good guys who "get it.” They tend to respond to the standards set for them as part of the gaining public trust and present it in the form of marketing materials under rubrics like supporting the brand promise of the company.    All well and good but is it good enough?

We don’t really take on the tougher task of asking ourselves what ought to be the fundamental principles that direct our longer term policies for oil sands development.  We want people to believe we have done enough to ensure the oil sand development purposes are being served. Namely attracting investment, turning out projects as fast as can be and creating high paying jobs.  We can leave the ecological concerns for another time.  There is an absence of balance and an integrated thinking about oil sands development.

The intent is generally good too but the execution is too often less than rigorous.  The culture around ensuring the public is on-side tends to be PR, advertising and slogans.  Breaches too often get unreported or under reported.  When they become public there are efforts to bury the facts under privacy legislation or deferrals because “the matter is before the courts.”  So the public is no better off in assessing what is really going on and if what is happening even aligns with the societal values they want applied to the development of their oil sands resources.

The next level of stewardship performance is assurance.  This is a higher level that is akin to a moral obligation because it is principles based and in the form of a covenant with the public by government and industry.  It does not replace the other levels but builds on them.  It is an effort to show that everything that can be done to prevent, avoid, mitigate and remediate any possible and potential negative consequences of oil sands development is being done - and done well.  

HOW DO VALUES APPLY OIL SANDS DEVELOPMENT?

Here integrity is more than doing what you say in ways consistent with the outcomes you expect.  Here integrity is about a wholeness sense of accountability and transparency.  It is about actually integrating all the vital information about a development or policy decision from a social, political, environmental and economic perspective.  Making all the integrated information public in an honest, accessible and transparent way shows that values trade offs have to be made in such complex decisions.  

Deciding what values get traded off and how that is decided is as important as anything else for politicians, project promoter and operators to decide.  To do it with integrity, honestly with transparency that shows accountability actually earns and sustains the public’s trust.  The industry needs this public trust from Albertans as owners of the oil sands to justify its continuing social license to operate.  The politicians need the public’s trust to justify their continuation of Albertan’s consent to govern.

  

The assurance inter-play between the public as owners, the government as proxy and industry as tenant becomes more collaborative instead of command and control.  Accountability is shared instead of traditional top down decisions directed by "higher" authority alone.  Decisions become principle based assurances not just minimalist adherence to the inadequate rules.

Once the approach to assure the public and the public interest is understood by government and industry then a new systems approach to politics and prosperity can be developed.  That systems approach would be based on ways to achieve sustainable prosperity, with a high quality of living in an enriched biodiversity context.  Conservation and preservation will help define progress in a longer term context than the next quarterly profit levels.  Government and industry decisions would look for ways that respect and harmonize with the ecosystem rather than trying to constantly engineer our way out of our environmental responsibilities.

HOPES AND ASPIRATIONS GOING FORWARD

So I hope to see the university and government scientists get together over the Athabasca River toxins and compare processes, data, findings and interpretations, just as Premier Stelmach wants.  I hope they share and learn from each other and tell Albertans what is going on regarding ecological monitoring, habitat protection for fish and wildlife, the human health implications of their findings if any. 

I hope we see recommendations about what needs to be done differently and better about oil sands ecological monitoring to assure the public interest is being served.   I hope all the government and industry ecological monitoring data on the oil sands is fully disclosed and any professional differences of opinion are explained to me in ways I can understand.  Expert opinions differ all the time and Albertans have to learn to accept that.

I hope the politicians cool the rhetoric, gamesmanship and partisanship around the development of the oil sands.  I hope the ENGOs refrain from publicity stunts and inaccurate hyperbole just to get media attention.  I hope the scientific community start to spend time more time to educate the public about what is needed to be done to provide a more integrated and whole-systems approach to oil sands development. 

Albertans are being told that the oil sand development is a drop in the bucket of the world-wide CO2 emissions.  That is true.  However, it is also true that on a per capita basis we Albertans are the largest emitters of CO2 on the planet.  We own the oil sands so, as citizens, we should be getting the benefits.  But we should also bear the burden of developing the oil sands.  That means individual Albertans have to take the enormous development opportunity and profound obligations of oil sands development personally and seriously.

We Albertans can’t just delegate or worse yet, abdicate our greater duty of care to ensure and assure that the oil sands are developed in the most effective and integrated way possible.  As owners we Albertans owe a duty to the environment and to future generations when it comes to how our oil sands are developed.  If we Albertans want better leadership and stewardship of our oil sands we have to look in the mirror first and be sure we are doing our part and taking our responsibilities seriously.  Then we have to convey our concerns and expectations to our politicians and our industry tenants about what to do and how to do it - all in our good name as Albertans.  Otherwise we will have nobody but ourselves to blame.

If you want a progressive political culture in the Next Alberta register now for RebootAlberta 3.0 at www.rebootalberta.org

Don't Believe the Buzz About an Early Alberta Election

There is low level buzzing about a possible spring 2011 election in Alberta.  While in politics anything is possible I don’t put much credence in any early election, at least not right now.   There are many reasons why not but here are a few of the main ones. 

THE WILDROSE WILD CARD!

The Wildrose has peaked in the polls and while a threat they are stalled.  People have stopped looking to send the PC government a message by shifting “allegiance” to the upstarts.  People are beginning to wonder what the WAP is all about.  Serious questions about what they stand for beyond defeating the Stelmach government and who is in control from behind the scenes are now emerging.

Don’t misunderstand me.  The WAP is a potent political force but it is not a government in waiting...not yet.  It is right wing socially conservative core with a libertarian leader who is schooled in Fraser Institute philosophy that the marketplace privatization of public service is the best public policy option.  They also have no serious credibility in becoming the big tent progressive political party of Peter Lougheed’s day like they say they aspire to be. 

Unless the WAP takes off beyond the support levels they enjoy now, there will be no need to go to an early election.

THE ECONOMY

We are not sure where the economy is headed but it is slowing and the US looks like it is in for a double dip recession.  The federal and provincial government stimulus money has worked to keep things from totally imploding but that effort is over.  Now the open question is will the private sector picked up the slack and investing again?  Will commodity prices and confidence hold enough to induce continuing investment?  What is happening in the US economy is scary and the mouse and elephant metaphor still resonates.  Alberta will be impacted significantly with what happens economically south of the border.   Timing here is against an early election.

DO WE HAVE A SPENDING OR A REVENUE PROBLEM?

There is an emerging debate about if we have a revenue problem or a spending problem and then there is uncertainty about a possible sales tax sometime in Alberta’s future but not on Stelmach’s watch.  My opinion is we have both revenue and spending problems and they are highly integrated issues.    The Premier backed off from reasonable royalty rates seven times since the new royalty regime was announced.   Ties to commodity prices make revenues volatile and that is a planning as well as a revenue problem

We Albertans as owners of our natural resources, have the second lowest total resource revenues in the on plant next to the UK North Sea oil.  We Albertans also have the largest total amount hydrocarbon resources on the planet.  We are second only in terms of exploitable resources behind Saudi Arabia and they have not publicly updated their reserve estimates since the mid 70’s.  They have pulled a lot of oil out of the ground and few new discoveries since then so I would not be surprised if Alberta is the largest total and exploitable oil reserves in the world...thanks to the oil sands

As new technologies come on we will be able to reach even more oil sands over time.   We are next door to the USA, the largest hydrocarbon market on the planet...for now.  And we have all the necessary international agreements and physical infrastructure in place to serve the market.  This along with a stable democracy, a reliable currency, the rule of law with an independent justice system, no threat of state nationalization of assets, and a safe secure society where your employees do not get kidnapped for ransom. So why are we giving the resources away with ridiculously low royalties?  We should be charging a 35% premium for our royalties compared to every other energy provider to the US market, perhaps even including their own domestic supplies.

The problem with revenue volatility has been identified by the Premier’s Council of Economic Strategy in their recent discussion paper when they said:

“Economic volatility also means fluctuating government revenues, which hinders good fiscal planning and destabilizes program delivery. If revenues from “windfall” energy exports get built into program

budgets or subsidies, inevitably something must be cut when the windfall is no longer available. We

must also remember that these revenues come from non‐renewable resources: Spending them on

today’s operating needs can draw down the legacy owed to future generations.”

SALES TAX POLICY IS IDEOLOGICAL NOT LOGICAL NOR FAIR

If we are to sustain a low and flat tax and still not penalize lower income people we need a related consumption tax.  Yes a sales tax.  Or else we can decide to return to a fairer progressive taxation model and perhaps forgo a sales tax.  However a sales tax makes sense because it can help reduce waste and excessive consumption too and make sure the current generation pays for the public services what we use.  

That is the more fundamental principle in play here.  There is a need ensure Albertans pay our way for the public programs we want and need on a current revenue basis.  Instead of providing tax levels sufficient to pay our way we use non-renewable natural resource revenues (as stifled as they are) to subsidize current operational program spending.  Instead of paying our way we steal the natural resources birthright from future generations.  We also decide to run current deficits which are merely tax increases by another name but payable in the future...during someone else’s watch.

We need to tax ourselves at a level that pays for the services we want...and we are not doing that. Instead we are suffocating services from the most vulnerable in our society: children, the disabled and seniors.   WE generate more tax revenue from gambling and lotteries than we do from our energy sector.  There is something seriously wrong with this picture.  We need a fair tax and rent on natural resources but we also need to look at strategic taxes like on carbon to change wasteful behaviours and enable innovation. 

With loose talk of a sales tax expect a push back and nothing to happen until after the next election. Also do not expect an early election if a sales tax emerges as an issue in the public mind.  The mythology around sales tax in Alberta is as misunderstood but as significant as the mythology around the NEP.

IS THE NEXT BALLOT QUESTION DO WE HAVE A SPENDING OR A REVENUE PROBLEM?

The spending issue is a political problem because we get politically sucked into the boom and bust psychology and spend too much in good times and cut too much in tough times.

The 1993 election was all about Alberta’s spending problem.  It was focused on getting rid of our debt and deficit in Alberta.  The election issue between Klein and Decore was between massive cuts or brutal cuts.  Everything else was detail.

What happened is the new Klein government did both massive and brutal cuts - and very rapidly.  Coupled with dramatic commodity price recoveries we took a prudent 25 year debt relief program and fast-tracked every spare and new nickel into debt and deficit and we “solved” it in about 4 years.  That is less than the seven years touted by the Klein government needed to pay off the debt and deficit.  

That Alberta Advantage single minded focus left us with a Billion dollars of unattended and unintended school repairs due to lack of maintenance.  We turned a blind eye to the other infrastructure needs and failed to respond to the population growth we were all touting as part of the Alberta Advantage.  We ended up with serious shortage lack of skilled people like in nurses and other crucial public service areas.

As the economy took off we allowed unrestricted accelerated growth of the oil sands.  Rapid growth became official government policy and the energy sector pulled people away from other economy sectors with much higher wages.  When the political leadership changed and the infrastructure problems were attended to, we taxpayers ended up paying about a 40% premium to deal with the public facilities infrastructure deficit that were ignored.   All the same while we induced human and natural capital deficits by ignoring cumulative environmental impacts and growing social needs.

With a persistent and record level $4.6B projected deficit this fiscal year the question is not if we have a spending or a revenue problem – we have both. That is not something to fight in the next election over either.  So do not expect an early election unless the economy turns around and fixes that fiscal problem before hand.

THE MOOD IS NOT GOOD AND IT IS MORE THAN THE ECONOMY

The political climate in Alberta is beyond grumpy.  Albertans are downright grouchy approaching cantankerous...if they not already there.  Our research shows only 12% of Albertans are seriously on-side about being satisfied with the Stelmach government.  Over half (51%) of us do not think our government listens to us or even cares what we think.  Only 70% of us are committed to improving the future of Alberta while only 48% feel that their personal actions have an impact on making Alberta a better place.   These are not the kind of numbers that indicate a confident, committed engaged citizenry that is part of the tribal myth of Alberta.

There are 45% of us who do not trust any of the current leaders or parties to manage our province’s growth responsibly.  There is a sense that political leadership is lacking and none of the political alternative being offered will be any better.

The MPs in Ottawa are not immune either as we see the Harper government ratchet up for what looks like a federal election.  For example while most Albertans see a need for a federal role in oil sands development, even an increasing role, only 17% Completely Agree or Agree that the Alberta MPs are doing a satisfactory job of representing Alberta’s interest in Ottawa.   Prime Minister Harper is obviously engineering the defeat of his minority government and wants to go to the polls sometime soon.  That means Alberta will want to wait and see what happens federally first and that means an early election in Alberta is less likely.

CONCLUSION:

I do not see a quick provincial election unless the Wildrose Alliance starts to make more political progress beyond its current plateau of support.  The economic times are volatile and the voter is nervous about where the economy is going, here and elsewhere. There are high levels of personal debt and nagging concerns about job security.  The threat of a double dip recession in the States and a very long road to recovery means Alberta has some serious uncertainty ahead.

There is a political leadership void that needs fixing in all the parties, with the exception of the Wildrose and the newly minted leadership of Danielle Smith.  That leadership question will not likely be addressed by any political party until after the next election.  But again, in politics anything can happen and often does.  A caucus revolt over leadership in the PC that would defer any early election call.  I would be very surprised if that happened. Ed Stelmach deserves better than that and should take the party through the next election. 

There is a great sadness amongst many thoughtful Albertans that I speak with on a regular basis over a lack of clear direction and growing political uncertainty in the province.  The sadness is over the obvious squandering of potential and opportunity and emerging possibilities for the Next Alberta.  With all our strengths, opportunities, natural resources and human capital, Alberta can move beyond the boosterism of the best place in the world to becoming the best place for the world. 

If you want a progressive political culture in the Next Alberta register now for RebootAlberta 3.0 at www.rebootalberta.org

Are Progressives to Blame for the Far Right Shift in Politics?

I answer this question from a personal perspective on my other blog Reboot Alberta.  Let me know by comments on that blog what you think.

If you want a progressive political culture in the Next Alberta register now for RebootAlberta 3.0 at www.rebootalberta.org