Alberta Gets to Vote on Monday - Will Progressives Show Up?

There are elections for municipal politicians and school board trustees all over Alberta on October 18.  These elected officials are the closest to the community but ironically result in the lowest voter turnout.

There are some indications that this is changing in Calgary and Edmonton at least.  I have not had the time to review other places to get a sense of voter turnout intentions.  I can only hope the sense of the import of the opportunity to participate in our democracy is hitting home with Albertans.

One of my passions is citizenship and citizen engagement.  This blog is often focused on those concerns.  I hope for more than citizens turning up to vote but actually knowing what the want from government and making an effort to see which of the candidates comes closest to their values and concerns.  That takes a bit of time but with the Internet this research is very easy to do.

I am not going to tell you how to vote but I do want to encourage you to vote.  I especially want to encourage the progressive thinking Albertans to vote.  The people with this value set have become very disillusioned with politics and have withdrawn from democracy as a result.  That is no way to change the system.

Elections are about choices, change and charting courses. So let me make some observations about the Mayoralty races in Edmonton and Calgary in that context.

EDMONTON:
Edmonton is a two-horse race between Mandel and Dorward.  Both fine candidates but with very different world and local views about issues and the direction for the city.

There is an undercurrent of this contest being a proxy race for the next provincial election in Edmonton.  I think there is some truth to that.  Dorward is an unsuccessful PC candidate from the last political election but is now the favourite of the Wildrose faction in the culture war in right wing politics in Alberta.  Mandel is less defined as a partisan politician but he is being framed as the PC Party choice.  I actually think he is better understood and the anybody but WAP choice.

How this will undercurrent of provincial party influence plays out on the choice for Mayor of Edmonton will send a message about the potential strength of the WAP in Edmonton.  Right now the WAP is very weak in Edmonton but a win or even a strong showing by Dorward will be seen as a serious shift in momentum for the Wildrose in Edmonton.

It is entirely possible for Mr. Dorward to win this election for Mayor on Monday but only if progressive voters continue to stay home on election day.  If progressive stay indifferent to consequences of elections or presume a Mandel victory so they don't need to bother - don't be surprised by a Droward win.

CALGARY:
This is an even more interesting race for Mayor.  There is the same provincial implications undercurrents.  McIver the early leader is the Wildrose choice.  Then we have Barb Higgins, the recently retired TV news anchor cum candidate who thinks she is the right person to run a multi-billion dollar civic budget.  She is the PC darling with the backing of the Dinning PC leadership brain trust.

Then we have Naheed Nenshi, the upstart outsider progressive candidate with a more modern and motivated campaign approach based on issues and policy. Nenshi was at first a group of third tier progressive candidates including Wayne Stewart and Bob Hawkesworth but he broke from that pack.  Nenshi is now tied with the original front runners all around 30% support according to a very recent Leger poll.  Hawkesworth has withdrawn and is supporting Higgins.  Stewart has also withdrawn and is supporting Nenshi. Just to make it more interesting.

Here is a chance for progressive voters in Calgary to vote for a young, intelligent, articulate and capable political alternative.  They can show up and support the momentum of Nenshi and send a message to the establishment that runs Calgary that their presumption of the perpetual traditional right-wing conservative political culture is not a given in the future of that great city.

Full disclosure - I know Nenshi the best of all the candidates.  He is involved in Reboot Alberta too and was one of the people who helped merge the Renew Alberta group with the Alberta Party as a progressive centrists political alternative for our province.  I worked with Ric McIvor a few year ago on men's issues in bullying and domestic violence and his knowledge and understanding of the complexity of the issues impressed me.  I have never met Barb Higgins but know a lot of the people running her campaign.

CONCLUSION:
There is a very important subtext to the Mayoralty races in Edmonton and Calgary with potential implications for the future of provincial politics in Alberta.  If McIvor and Dorward win the Wildrose will become even wilder and emboldened.  If Higgins wins the Calgary establishment will rise up and once again want the run the province from behind closed doors like they did when Ralph Klein was Premier.  If Mandel and Nenshi win we can see signs of a shifting in the political culture in the province and the old one-party system is an artifact of the past.  It will show that there is a yearnings for a more progressive, inclusive, accountable government that is open, based on integrity and stewardship - not just getting and keeping personal political power

The choices made by Edmonton and Calgary represent two-thirds of the Alberta population.  That alone has serious implications for politics in the rest of the province.  None of my readers  will be surprised by my choices.  I am voting for Mandel and would vote for Nenshi - if I lived in Calgary.

If you want a progressive political culture in the Next Alberta register now for RebootAlberta 3.0 at www.rebootalberta.org

Alberta Local Elections Less Than a Week Away!

Early indications are that there is more interest in local elections for municipal government and school boards this time than three years ago.  Only anecdotal but the advance poll in Edmonton shows a marked increase in voter turnout.  The Edmonton Sun non-scientific on-line "poll" shows 67% of us say we will vote.  We always say we will vote but we perpetually lie about our actual voting behaviours.  Maybe citizens will have more integrity this time and do what they say on October 18th

Three years ago things were pretty rosy in Alberta, energy prices were soaring to new highs and everyone was scrambling to keep up with the overheated economy.  Now the change is dramatic but in reality we are in a more normal economic situation but tinged with some critical uncertainties.  Uncertainties like the US economy and the rise of the BRIC nations and enormous personal and public debt overhanging the psyche and climate change seeping in as a reality.  It all adds up and with record gold prices we see the economic angst being acted out in the market place.

Back to the local realities in Alberta - will we see a revived sense of citizenship in improved voter turnout next Monday?  What will be the ballot questions?  Calgary is in a culture war that is illustrated by the wide array of candidates for mayor.  I wonder if Calgary wants a new face for their city or if the entrenched power structure will opt for a version of a status quo candidate, McIver or Higgins.. Mandel won in Edmonton two elections ago because both highly touted front runners were found wanting in some fundamental way.  The chance for change took over and both of them were rejected in favour of the third place candidate - Mandel.  Could that happen in Calgary this time?  Would Nenshi, Stewart or Hawkesworth benefit from this kinds of yearning for real change in Calgary?

Edmonton started out as a yawner of a campaign but has heated up significantly thanks to Envision Edmonton efforts to press for a plebiscite on the municipal airport closing.  The mayoralty campaign here is turning into a battle for the next narrative of the story Edmonton wants to tell itself about itself.  There is a sense by the traditionalists Envision Edmonton types to almost emulate the Wildrose as the yearn for an Edmonton of a  time past.  The modernists just want to be left alone and get on with their lives, make some money and without having to worry about messy things like politics, democracy, citizenship and social issues.

The real question in Edmonton is will the progressives show up and support Mandel or just presume his win is a foregone conclusion so they can stay indifferent and inert politically.  If that happens and the grumpy types from Envision Edmonton show up then anything can happen.  That is the nature of politics.

School Board elections are interesting in Edmonton - have not followed them in Calgary.  EPSB is in for some serious change for sure, not sure about the Catholic board here but will ponder that in the next few days. too.

I encourage all Albertans to get informed and get into discussion with friends an family about what they want from their government and make a conscious considered choice at the polls.  I especially encourage progressives to take this plea to heart.  Indifference is inexcusable in tight races.  The progressive voice is being lost in the Alberta political culture because we are not speaking up and not showing up.  Other voices are speaking up and showing up.  And they are taking over the political power in our province.

Remember it is not THE government.  It is OUR government - whether you voted or not.

If you want a progressive political culture in the Next Alberta register now for RebootAlberta 3.0 at www.rebootalberta.org

Inspiring Hearts & Minds = Innovation in Education

Here is an updated blog post by Kim Bater - a candidate for School Trustee in Banff.  Kim is a very creative leader and thinker with a dedication to public education.

Thanks to Esme Comfort, another candidate for school trustee in the same district for the link on Twitter @esmecomfort if you want ot follow her.

If you want a progressive political culture in the Next Alberta register now for RebootAlberta 3.0 at www.rebootalberta.org

Social Media 3Q Update: Who Uses Facebook, Twitter, LinkedIn, & MySpace? | Social Media Today

The digital world is still an amazing force that is changing communications, community, consciousness and content that we pay attention to in our daily lives. The demographic mix of users is changing and the growth is leveling off. It had to at some point but the level of engagement is still a phenomenon the be reckoned with. The impact on any business that depends on a social license to operate - like forestry, banks, oil&gas and oil sands need to figure out how to tap into this new world and how to use it.

Social Media 3Q Update: Who Uses Facebook, Twitter, LinkedIn, & MySpace? | Social Media Today

If you want a progressive political culture in the Next Alberta register now for RebootAlberta 3.0 at www.rebootalberta.org

Alberta Tea Party Possibilities Update

I recently did a post on the possibility of an Alberta Tea Party forming at some time possibly from the social conservatives and separatists in our midst.

Canada 2020 recently hosted a panel on Polling with Frank Graves (Ekos Research) Nik Nanos (Nanos Research) and Bruce Anderson (Harris/Decima) moderated by Don Newman.  The panel was broadcast on CPAC last night and I missed it but hope it will be repeated.  Should be worth a watch.

I point this out because Susan Delacourt who writes on this Ottawa-ish for the Toronto Star picked up on a comment from Harris/Decima about the possibility of a Canadian Tea Party equivalent. She wrote a story about it here.  Susan has also written a blog post on it the concern here called "Distemper of our Times."

Nik Nanos, a very reliable pollsters at the Canada 2020 event, commented on "...the forces of disaggregation, the forces of discontent and the forces of dilution...of power."  He concluded by saying "So to wrap up: expect political instability and turbulence.  I believe we are at a risky but unintended place in our democracy -- that the forces of disaggregation

If you want a progressive political culture in the Next Alberta register now for RebootAlberta 3.0 at www.rebootalberta.org