Political Uncertainty in Alberta - Anything Could Happen

In response to the recent Environics poll on Alberta voter intentions omitted the Alberta Party as a voting option.  My friend and fellow blogger Daveberta has run his own "poll" on his blog that included the Alberta Party as an option. His analysis and commentary is worth a read but with all your critical thought faculties fully engaged.  

This information and so many other indications promise the next Alberta election will be the most interesting.  There has not been this much volatility since Klein got elected in 1993 and it may be as dramatic as Lougheed in 1971.  This excitement is assured if the Alberta Party becomes a viable governance option for Alberta voters.  Its politics people so anything can happen.

Now back to the reality of today.  I have a hard time relying even on professional scientific polls about political fortunes because they are so unreliable in predicting actual voter behaviour.  My attitude is summed up in one of my favourite bumper stickers of all time: "Save Democracy, Lie to a Pollster."  So you can imagine how difficult it is for me to give any credence to the kind of unscientific opinion "polls" we see in newspapers and blogs - yes including this one.  I run unscientific blog-based polls too. My latest one is on royalty rates beside this post.

There is some value in these blog-based "polls" however as they gauge (but do not measure) some sense of public sentiment, at least in a segment.  While participants are sort of random we don't know the distribution and they are prone to being hi-jacked by special interests. In fact it appears the PC Party tried to do just that by sending out a notice to PC party members to go and vote PC on the Daveberta poll.  Details of that effort is in is post. Given the results you can judge for yourself if that effort was effective. 

In that context these blog-based polls are more like exercises in stimulating conversation, raising consciousness and focusing attention - not evidence of general public opinion. So the results should looked at with a critical eye and taken with a large grain of salt.  I still findings the results interesting and useful for several reasons.  

WHAT GOOD ARE BLOGGER BASED POLLS?

Bloggers have regular readers through links to and from other sites as well as RSS subscribers, Facebook Friends, LinkedIn contacts and Twitter Followers, even through videos and podcasts on occasion.  Then there is the impact bloggers have by participation and mentions of them in mainstream media.  The impact of search engines is important too.  They track and trigger readers based on key words that people are using to find information on-line that connects people to various blogs.  Bloggers have both a core and a casual readership as a result of this connectivity and their content.  This kind of audience makes the blog polls interesting as anecdotal collection of citizen comments - but not as reliable (sic) science based professional opinion polling.  

Bloggers have points of view, personalities and influence.  They create conversation spaces that attract readers who agree and disagree with them.  While it is possible to find an issue that creates an echo effect where like minds congregate to validate each other's opinions, group think is not likely the net result of blog readers.  Just read the range of comments on a popular blog post to see group think is not the norm.  

So what are we to make of the reader blog poll results that Dave Cournoyer has done relative to the Environics professional random poll?  First you can't compare them for obvious reasons already stated.  However when you consider Davberta is one of the most popular and respected political bloggers in Alberta, you can't just dismiss those results either.  Here is why.  

INFLUENTIALS OPINIONS MAY HAVE MORE IMPACT ON ELECTION OUTCOMES THAN POLL RESULTS

Almost 600 people participated in the poll so it represents the opinions of a significant group of people who took the time to participate. Anyone trying to measure the mood of Alberta ignores this kind of information at their political peril.  When you consider the popular but seriously misplaced faith governments and political groups put in focus groups I would tend to rely on a large participation blog poll like Davberta's so much more.  Focus groups are closed and controlled events where the reactions of a very small and minimally representative group of folks get paid to comment on a subject.  What they say get expanded and extrapolated to mysteriously assume and presume they reflect the larger population.  

The real value of such blog-based polls, according to my educated guess, is the influence of the blogger and the influence that is inherent in the people who took Daveberta's poll. Daveberta readers are much like mine.  I know this because we share many readers in common.  What I know of my readers is they are cultural creatives, progressive thinking and highly influential.  They are informed, active and very engaged in communication within their personal and professional networks.  They are respected opinion leaders, thought leaders, trend setters and trend spotters. 

They are what have come to be known as "Influentials." I expect Dave and I share a large readership of Influentials all over Alberta. I have a permission based email list of almost 5000 Alberta based Influentials I send political and policy information to on a regular basis.  Research shows that what Influentials are thinking and talking about today is what the general public will be thinking and talking about in 12-18 months.  The impact of Influentials happens sooner if the topic is hot and of major concern...like the future of their jobs, the stability of their family, their self-identity issues like who will I vote for and why!  The alleged political conspiracy to discredit Dr. Raj Sherman over speaking out on health care shortcomings is a perfect case in point.  It is a hot issue and lots of Influentials are talking about how inappropriate that is and how misaligned it is to their values.  That incident will be remembered and influence the choices in the next election.

NEVER UNDER ESTIMATE THE IMPORTANCE OF FEAR UNCERTAINTY AND DOUBT

There are lots of Albertans looking for an option or alternative to vote for these days.  Some are just trying to send the existing government a message to "smarten them up" while others have just given up on them.  Still others are reawakening that something significant is happening in Alberta politics and it may be time to reaffirm their roles and responsibilities as citizens and be an informed voter.  As a result of this uncertainty, doubt and linger fears, what the Influentials say now about who to vote for and why to vote for them will have a significant impact on voter turnout and the results of the next election.

The new voting option with the most buzz since the last election has been the Wildrose Alliance but they are seen as extreme by Influentials and that makes people very nervous about giving them political power. The other option, the Alberta Party, is just getting organized and is moving into a leadership campaign in the new year. Many Influentials are becoming aware of the Alberta Party and many are joining up to help formulate a new way of doing politics and reaffirming democracy in Alberta.  It will be interesting to watch this influence unfold.  The early signs of the impact of Influentials on voting possibilities are right in the Daveberta poll results.  The PCs firmly in #1 but not in majority government territory.  The Alberta Party #2 and the WAP #3 but essentially tied.  As for the Liberals and the NDP, not much interest.

IS THERE A NEW PARTY OPTION ON THE HORIZON?

The components of the merged parties that became the Wildrose Alliance had been active politically for many years.  They, won a by-election participated fully in the last election, chose a new leader and have very active ever since.  The revived and reconstituted Alberta Party has been working quietly for only a year to get the foundation of a new party set, with a new constitution and an expanded board and that is all ironed out.  It engaged in face to face home based conversations with Albertans finding out how people were doing, uncertain about and grateful for as Albertans.  They showed off a new policy document last month and they are setting up a leadership process in early 2011.  

With that backdrop, and if I am right that the Influentials are paying some serious attention to the Alberta Party, they are about to become a competitive force in the forthcoming political culture of the province.  Will it be in time for the next election?  That is their major organizational challenge right now but so be it.  Life is not fair.  Tying this back to the Daveberta blog poll results we find there may be at least three viable voting options for Albertans next election.  The rapidly shifting to the right PCs, the centrist progressive Alberta Party and the extreme right wing Wildrose Alliance are the mostly likely options.  The Liberals and NDP risk being seen as lacking relevance as moderate, progressive Albertans see a reason to believe they can impact the future direction, destination and narrative of the Next Alberta through the Alberta Party option.  

It is guaranteed to be a fascinating election whenever it happens.  With the Environics results showing the strength of the Wildrose and if I am right about the Alberta Party, I would not rule out an early election in 2011.  That would most likely happen to stave off an internal caucus revolt against Ed Stelmach like has just happened to BC Liberal Leader Gordon Campbell and BC NDP Leader Carol James.  Remember its politics and anything can happen. 

School boards facing a test of relevance

Larry Booi, former President of the ATA and current head of Public Interest Alberta has penned a pointed op-ed. He offers his considerable experience with some observations and sage advice to the newly elected school board trustees. I am in total agreement with everything Larry says in this push to promote participative and deliberative democracy.

There is enough freedom and flexibility in the Inspiring Action on Education to enable all of Booi's suggestions to happen - starting now. Some boards are already into the possibilities and I am pleased to be working with some of them.

School boards facing a test of relevance

Which hand should I hold the baton in?

Which hand should I hold the baton in?

There is a video just over 4 minutes that will make you smile to the core of your soul.

A small segment of joy for all of us as we work through some difficult times

Enjoy and share.

Thanks to Coralnet.org for making it available

Albertans Are Waking Up and Looking for Viable Political Options

My reading of the recent Environics poll of the political mood of Albertans shows that we are well into our winter of discontent- at least politically.  Alberta voters have been a somnambulent since the 1993 election.  Back then we found two politicians (Decore and Klein) who captured the public concern about Alberta's debt and deficit problem.  The next election was about massive cuts or brutal cuts. In fact we did both kinds of cuts and we entrusted Klein more than Decore to undertake the dirty work.

Albertans are once again waking up politically and we are not too pleased with what we are seeing.  We are in uncertain economic times, difficult social times, and now we are being targeted internationally as  environmental bad guysover the "dirty" oil sands.  This means there is a new volatility in the Alberta political culture.  Daveberta has a blog post that shows the shifting tides and times in Alberta politics comparing December polls in 2008, 2009 and now.

What this trending tells me is Albertans are looking for policy options and political alternatives.  Our discontent has been brewing for some time. Politically we are told the Wildrose Alliance Party is the only viable alternative to the Progressive Conservatives.  The other traditional political parties, the Liberals and NDP, are apparently being passed over by the public as potential agents of change.  Equally as interesting, according to Environics, is 17% of us  are "Undecided" about voting intentions.   That too is a significant sign of the shifting political sands in Alberta.

The current political narrative is also interesting.  The media has covered the rise of Danielle Smith as the face and focus of the Wildrose, but has done almost nothing to expose and explain the WAP policies.  The rush to the right by the PCs in an attempt to catch up to the Wildrose (or head them off?) leaves many of us with  a sense of despair  about the future direction of the province.  The predominant political options are personality based. We get to choose between a young smart, urbane and articulate Smith versus the nice guy, over-his-head, inarticulate and very tentative Stelmach. But what about their governing philosophies and their visions for the future?  When will that be considered and become part of the political conversation so can get beyond the pedantics of personalities?

The Environics poll has another vital piece of data that needs context.  Stelmach's government has 34% support has stopped bleeding politically.  But the bloom is off the Wildrose who seem stuck around 30%.  Neither is strong enough to form a majority government if we believe this poll and it is the on-going reality.

We are living in economically uncertain times with the province anticipating the largest budget deficit in our history.  We are into a shaky slow recovery tied directly to the fortunes of a seriously failing and faltering American market and threats of a double-dip recession.  Even with that reality, Albertans have relegated the economy to the #2 spot of top policy concerns, down to 16% from 27% last Spring.  The Alberta environment issues gets lots of media coverage but only 7% of Albertans think it is our major issue and only 8% of us are focused on oil sands development and royalties as the biggest thing on our policy plate.

What has happened is health care has vaulted to the #1 issue for almost half of Albertans.  Some 47% of us think that it is the most serious policy issues we face now - compared to 27% who thought so last Spring.  That  sudden, dramatic and intense concern over health care is a potential game changer and could be a government changer too if is becomes a ballot question.

I think this focus on the politics of health care is more than a function of hyper media focus.  It goes deeper - much deeper.  Health care is an issue that integrates our personal concerns for care when we and our family need it and into a bigger-than-self compassionate concern for others who also need health care help.  When it comes to health care we are all in it together and alone.

The lack policy transparency, the suspicion of some hidden privatization political agendas and the real and growing fear of continuing erosion of  our highly valued Canadian health care system is making us all very nervous. The politics of health care is drawing our attention, triggering our fears and making us wonder what is really going on...and we are questioning who are to believe any more!

Health care is in systemic crisis, regardless of the denials by the political powers that be. There is a growing suspicion that some people with political influence and  power are intentionally undermining the effectiveness of the publicly funded health cares system to insure it will fail.  Once that public system failure is self-evident, the theory goes that private insurance will be promoted as the saviour of the failed public health care system.  Such is the conspiracy theory, but if it exists, are we enabling privateers to use public funds for private privilege because of political indifference of citizens?

There is no viable progressive political alternative in the Alberta these days. There is no trusted countervail to the reactionary right wing tendencies of the PCs and the even more extreme Libertarian views of the Wildrose Alliance.  But moderate and progressive is the political values space where most Albertans see themselves.  Our Alberta based random sample research shows over 60% of Albertans hold Accountability, Integrity, Honesty, Fiscal and Personal Responsibility, Transparency and Clarity as the most important bundle of values we should use to evaluate our government's performance.   This is not rocket surgery but we are far from seeing those values articulated in our political culture today.  Nor are we seeing an attractive alternative political party emerge that speaks authentically to these majority Albertan values today.

I think that political alternative shortcoming is about to change in Alberta.  This is partly because the political events surrounding Dr. Raj Sherman and his dogged determination to expose the political and administrative fault lines in our health care system.  He is the lightening rod that is attracting public attention, focusing our fears, capturing our imagination and giving us political context so we can begin to understand what is really going on.

But the future of health care in Alberta is not about Raj Sherman. We now need to focus on what has become a broken system and we need to get it fixed - right and right away.  We don't need the kind of anti-intellectual, anti-expertise of so-called "common sense approach" characteristic of the Klein era amateurs who were running health care based on Fraser Institute ideology.  We need professionals and public servants with expertise, integrity and a public policy perspective to take over the mess and to look past the next election with their solutions.

Albertans have been looking for a galvanizing political issue and a trustworthy proponent of the public interest.  I think the Environics poll shows health care is the galvanizing issue and Dr. Raj Sherman has become the trustworthy exponent of the public interest. We need a broader and better public discourse around a new narrative for Alberta and a viable progressive political alternatives to deliver on the promise and potential of the next Alberta.

Could that new narrative and promising new way of doing progressive politics be articulated and exemplified by the Alberta Party?  Could the Alberta Party emerge as the viable political alternative that actually aligns with the values of most Albertans?  I have to say it is early times but the numbers of people who are approaching me these days with a genuine curiosity about the Alberta Party, and who are joining up, is making me quite optimistic.  The times they are a-changin' and only time will tell if it is change for the better or the worse.  Over to you Alberta.  Informed engaged active voters hold the keys to the future.

Alberta Readers' Choice Awards Long List Announced

The Alberta Readers' Choice Awards has just announced the long list of 30 titles for the 2011 version of its $10,000 prize.  Theses are all submissions from Alberta publishers from releases in the past year.

So the next step is for Librarians from all over Alberta to case votes for the Top 10 titles by the end of this year. Then the Jurors take over and read the Top 10 and we select 5 finalists which will be announced May 1, 2011.  Then Albertans can get in on the action and vote online in the month of May to select the winner and that will be announced on June 11 at the Alberta Book Publishing Awards Gala in Calgary.

The Jurors (including me but that is a secret until January when all of the Jurors are announced) will no doubt be sharing our thoughts and opinions on the Top 10 titles on line as we select the 5 Finalists. This is a great event with the sponsorship of the Edmonton Public Library and the Book Publishers Association of Alberta

When we get to the five finalist, I hope Albertans pick up the spirit of the competition, buy the books, read them.  Please share your thoughts on each book with friends, family and others in their various networks as well as online through Twitter.  I hope you also get into promoting the online voting for your favourite book too.

I love books, book stores and libraries.  I tend to get lost in them as my imagination get stirred by shared ideas and new senses of how to "see" things with the help of great writers.  Alberta is a dynamic cultural and creative place in both arts and innovation.  Recently the funding philistines have been busy undermining our sense of self and are starting to starve the provincial government support arts and innovation in the face of "fiscal pressures."  If we did not give away our natural resources by under charging for royalties and other revenues we leave on the table we would not have any such self-induced fiscal pressures. I will comment more on that public policy problem at another time as I look in more detail at the future political direction for the next Alberta in the new year.

In the mean time, check out the long list of titles and if any of them catch your eye.  BTW! Alberta books make great Christmas gifts.  Full disclosure, I am an Alberta book publisher under the name Sextant Publishing, an imprint of Cambridge Strategies Inc. but we made no submissions to this competition, so there is no conflict in my serving as a Juror.  If you are interested in what we publish and authors who are friends that we help promote go to the Bookstore link at Cambridge Strategies Inc.