So Angus Reid did a poll on Alberta political leadership issues that they released on March 17/14. It was a on-line poll done March 3-9 using 698 of the Angus Reid Forum panelists. Those are people who like to answer polls and signed up to be on the Angus Reid roster for such polls.
I am always suspicious that these self-selecting Forum volunteers are more politically active and engaged and not so random. The methodology likely make extrapolations of under represented groups based on the results of small numbers of participants in various segments.
Say 30% of the Alberta population is male over 55. I don't know if that is true but humour me. If the on line pool only had 10% of respondents in that group I wonder if the pollster takes the answers of the 10% and triples their weight to reach the real demographic mix. If so it it almost guaranteed to be wrong. A chronic reality for political polling for a few years now...increasingly wrong.
That said, I don't trust theses polls for that and other reasons. For example Angus Reid said 46% of decided voters in Alberta would choose Wildrose if an election was called the next day. Well the election is two years away so why is that relevant never mind reliable as a serious question.
Second I wonder how they voted last time and if they are shifting their votes and why! I expect a lot of former/current PC supporters, inside and outside the party, wanted to send Premier Redford a message by "choosing" Wildrose. If that was the case it worked. Redford resigned shortly afterwards.
Third is, presuming the poll has some veracity, there is a real social schism on age and gender lines in Alberta when it comes to politics. The Wildrose support is predominantly male and older. 50% of males in the survey supported WRP and 41% of the females. the older you were the more you supported the WRP. The PCs support was small, half that of WRP but evenly spread over genders and generations. Liberal and NDP support is greatest in youth and still behind the WRP.
Here is where gender and generational divides gets somewhat interesting. Health Care is #1 (21%), Leadership & Economy tied for #2 as most important issues (17%) and Environment is next with 9% picking it as most important. Old people art into health (go figure!) and leadership. Only 6% of youth said Leadership is most important issue in Alberta today but they were the largest group to say the Economy is their issue followed by the Environment. The Environment was top issue for only 6% of men 35-54 and only 4% of the 55+ makes gave it a concern.
More women were concerned about Health Care than men and more men were concerned about Leadership and the Economy than women.
Since Redford has left the stage, here is a bit of thought on useless polling information, namely who would make the best Premier, WRP Smith was at 32% the Libs and Dipper leaders 8% each and Redford at a mere 11% support. What is interesting i sthe Undecideds and None of the Above answers at 42%, mostly (28%) not sure. That means 4 out of 10 Albertans are rejecting or reserving opinion who of the currnet crowd would be the best leader. 46% of females feel this way and half of the 18-34 demographic dont know or don't care about the qualities of current political leaders.
On the dealing with the Economy 47% of women and 41% of youth say none of the current leaders cut it. Concerning the Environment 51% of women and 46% of youth reject the current crop of political leadership. Heath Care as a concern sees 42% of women and 35% of youth lacking confidence in current regimes.
Who ever gets Alberta's women and youth on their side and manages to get them to actually vote will dominate the next election outcomes. Mayors Nenchi and Iveson have done it in Calgary and Edmonton. So it can be done. The WRP is toast if this happens and the PCs are a wild card now with no leader to evaluate.
I think the next two elections are up for grabs by any party who wins the hearts and minds of women and youth - if the Angus Reid poll is right. That is still an open question for me.
Thursday, March 20, 2014
Monday, March 17, 2014
Neil Young Calgary Concert Fantastic
I went to Calgary on the weekend to see the Neil Young concert and to learn more about the ACFN campaign on Honouring the Treaty.
The Concernt was great. Krall was enchanting and Young was enthralling. There was little to noproselytizing from the stage but everyone in the full house knew what the event was in aid of.
The audience ws not your usual corporate crowd you often attribute to Calgary. It looks like the four city tour will generate about $500k in proceeds and I hear some ENGO's may be matching this. If so the war chest for fighting for treaty rights is will stocked.
The Teach In that afternoon was a disappointingly small crowd of mostly the converted and already knowledgeable.
As a front-end Baby Boomer I remember the Teach In movement well. It is a great device to bring consciousness and raise awareness. Lots of great comments on treaty issues from young and well informed panelists. It was a bit of a refresher course for me on trety rights.
So now the stage is bare and the audience has gone home. Will the conversations caused by Neil Young close with the curtain or will it continue?
I hope it continues but with more accuracy on facts, a more authenthic represnetation of the context of the oil sand and a better mutual respect of participants.
Yound closed the concert saying it was alright for good people tro disagree. That does not mean differences of opinion cannot create and foster a mutual respect, and even friendships.
That is my personal experience, many times over, espeically in politics. However, the facts and forums have to accurate and respectful too. The oil sands industry reached out to Mr. Young in that spirit to meet with him in a public discussion while he was in Calgary. I understand Mr. Young and company insisted that Dr. Suzuki moderate the event and the oil sands participants wanted a neutral moderator. So the event never happened.
If that is the reason for failure to connect and communicate, it is disappointing and deters from the kind of informative dialogue Mr. Young says he is trying to initiate. Perhaps the idea can be revivied. I will think about that idea and see if it is worth pursuing further.
The Concernt was great. Krall was enchanting and Young was enthralling. There was little to noproselytizing from the stage but everyone in the full house knew what the event was in aid of.
The audience ws not your usual corporate crowd you often attribute to Calgary. It looks like the four city tour will generate about $500k in proceeds and I hear some ENGO's may be matching this. If so the war chest for fighting for treaty rights is will stocked.
The Teach In that afternoon was a disappointingly small crowd of mostly the converted and already knowledgeable.
As a front-end Baby Boomer I remember the Teach In movement well. It is a great device to bring consciousness and raise awareness. Lots of great comments on treaty issues from young and well informed panelists. It was a bit of a refresher course for me on trety rights.
So now the stage is bare and the audience has gone home. Will the conversations caused by Neil Young close with the curtain or will it continue?
I hope it continues but with more accuracy on facts, a more authenthic represnetation of the context of the oil sand and a better mutual respect of participants.
Yound closed the concert saying it was alright for good people tro disagree. That does not mean differences of opinion cannot create and foster a mutual respect, and even friendships.
That is my personal experience, many times over, espeically in politics. However, the facts and forums have to accurate and respectful too. The oil sands industry reached out to Mr. Young in that spirit to meet with him in a public discussion while he was in Calgary. I understand Mr. Young and company insisted that Dr. Suzuki moderate the event and the oil sands participants wanted a neutral moderator. So the event never happened.
If that is the reason for failure to connect and communicate, it is disappointing and deters from the kind of informative dialogue Mr. Young says he is trying to initiate. Perhaps the idea can be revivied. I will think about that idea and see if it is worth pursuing further.
Alberta Party Leader Reaches Out to Albertans Who Want Change.
Alberta Party President Greg Clark reaches out to by an open letter Albertans who are ready for change that is refreshing, caring, inclusive and fiscally prudent to look at politics and government differently.
Dear fellow Albertan,
Unfortunately, change from within hasn't worked.
This is an important time in Alberta history; the decisions we make now will determine whether or not Alberta remains economically prosperous and socially strong for generations to come.
Alberta needs a government capable of creating a long term plan, and sticking to it. We need a government committed to ensuring we have good jobs now and for our kids. A government committed to keeping our economy strong while still protecting our environment and a government that will return power to local MLAs to allow them to stand up for the people who elected them.
Most of all, we need a government with integrity and free from entitlement.
This is about something bigger than the PC Party... way bigger. The world is changing and Alberta needs to not just change with it, we need to lead that change. This requires new thinking and new energy in government.
If you voted for the PC Party in the last election and you're considering what to do next, I think you'll like what you see in the Alberta Party.
You can learn more at www.albertaparty.ca and you can contact me directly on my personal email at greg.clark@albertaparty.ca or on twitter at @GregClark4AB.
Sincerely,
Greg Clark, Leader
Alberta Party
Dear fellow Albertan,
Politics is changing
in Alberta. Last election, the people of Alberta gave the PC Party their 13th
majority government on the hope that new leadership would modernize the party
and move it in line with the evolving values of Albertans.
Unfortunately, change from within hasn't worked.
This is an important time in Alberta history; the decisions we make now will determine whether or not Alberta remains economically prosperous and socially strong for generations to come.
Alberta needs a government capable of creating a long term plan, and sticking to it. We need a government committed to ensuring we have good jobs now and for our kids. A government committed to keeping our economy strong while still protecting our environment and a government that will return power to local MLAs to allow them to stand up for the people who elected them.
Most of all, we need a government with integrity and free from entitlement.
This is about something bigger than the PC Party... way bigger. The world is changing and Alberta needs to not just change with it, we need to lead that change. This requires new thinking and new energy in government.
If you voted for the PC Party in the last election and you're considering what to do next, I think you'll like what you see in the Alberta Party.
You can learn more at www.albertaparty.ca and you can contact me directly on my personal email at greg.clark@albertaparty.ca or on twitter at @GregClark4AB.
Sincerely,
Greg Clark, Leader
Alberta Party
Sunday, January 05, 2014
A Visual Poem of Love for the North by Tim Moen
I invite you to view this visual poem of Fort McMurray, Fort Chip, and the Peace Region of northern Alberta. It is shot by long time McMurray resident, helicopter pilot, videographer, blogger and fireman, Tim Moen.
I met Tim Moen last September when Neil Young came to Fort McMurray to shoot a documentary in the region and to meet with First Nations people in the RMWB. Tim flew his helicopter for the shots for the video.
I came to McMurray to meet Neil Young and his crew to give some context on the social realities of people working in and around the oilsands. Lot of good my input did. Shortly afterwards Mr. Young did his over the top comparison of Fort McMurray to Hiroshima. Tim's video belies that comparison.
Tim's video shows places in the oil sands region you don't see from the highway but that makes up the majority of the landscapes of the region. With all the industrial development going on the oil sands region we still have about 97% of the regional biodiversity intact.
The Alberta Biodiveristy Monitoring Institute is a great source for information and context on how this is measured and monitored. Look it up if you are interested. If you are an Albertan, you are an owner of the oil sands, so you will be interested in learning more I am sure.
The human settlements in the boreal forest make this biodiversity an imperative ecological value we need to protect while we create economic value from the resources in responsible and sustainable ways.
We also have to ensure the human social divesity in places like Fort McMurray are also valued, protected and social inclusion and cohesion are promoted.
Speaking of social divdersity, of the 74,000 or so people living in the urban core of McMurray, they come from 127 differenct countries and speak over 69 languages. That is a Petri dish to grow a global model for a sustainable, inclusive, vibrant and diverse society, or the largest dysfunctional truck stop on the planet...if we mess it up.
Tim's obvious love for the land and strong sense of place in his home in the RMWB made me think about these things. He articulates these sentiments so well with these visuals that I call the video a poem. It is a relaxing 12 minutes so take the time to enjoy and let the mood wash over you.
Here is the link
I met Tim Moen last September when Neil Young came to Fort McMurray to shoot a documentary in the region and to meet with First Nations people in the RMWB. Tim flew his helicopter for the shots for the video.
I came to McMurray to meet Neil Young and his crew to give some context on the social realities of people working in and around the oilsands. Lot of good my input did. Shortly afterwards Mr. Young did his over the top comparison of Fort McMurray to Hiroshima. Tim's video belies that comparison.
Tim's video shows places in the oil sands region you don't see from the highway but that makes up the majority of the landscapes of the region. With all the industrial development going on the oil sands region we still have about 97% of the regional biodiversity intact.
The Alberta Biodiveristy Monitoring Institute is a great source for information and context on how this is measured and monitored. Look it up if you are interested. If you are an Albertan, you are an owner of the oil sands, so you will be interested in learning more I am sure.
The human settlements in the boreal forest make this biodiversity an imperative ecological value we need to protect while we create economic value from the resources in responsible and sustainable ways.
We also have to ensure the human social divesity in places like Fort McMurray are also valued, protected and social inclusion and cohesion are promoted.
Speaking of social divdersity, of the 74,000 or so people living in the urban core of McMurray, they come from 127 differenct countries and speak over 69 languages. That is a Petri dish to grow a global model for a sustainable, inclusive, vibrant and diverse society, or the largest dysfunctional truck stop on the planet...if we mess it up.
Tim's obvious love for the land and strong sense of place in his home in the RMWB made me think about these things. He articulates these sentiments so well with these visuals that I call the video a poem. It is a relaxing 12 minutes so take the time to enjoy and let the mood wash over you.
Here is the link
Wednesday, January 01, 2014
KEN CHAPMAN IS BACK and WILL POST AGAIN on A REGULAR BASIS
Hello neglected readers. This was a very popular blog site at one time. I went into a job based out of Fort McMurray with the oil sands industry that made this kind of blogging difficult. Anything I said could and would (but not should) be interpreted as speaking on behalf of certain oil sands companies. Not fair to them...or me! But such is life.
A New Job and a New Blog:
I have a new life now and a new position at Edmonton Economic Development and blogging is mandated there not discouraged. My mandate is to increase the collaboration between the Regional Municipality of Wood Buffalo and the Edmonton Capital Region in areas of business, sustainability and community well-being.
Part of the EED mandate is going to be covered in another blog about the Edmonton area involvement in the oil sands using the triple bottom line and sustainability principles. Edmontonians are owners of the oil sands and need to know more on how we can take care ensure the oil sands are developed in a responsible sustainable and sensible way.
We need to take our citizenship obligations seriously and demand from government and industry that oil sands resource development be more sustainable. We need to expect optimizing oil sands be for the general well-being of people. We need to expect our oil sands deliver enhanced environmental stewardship. We deserve development that is less wasteful and more profitable for the posterity of future Albertans.
I have a new blog to serve that purpose and I hope you visit regularly at www.oilsandsken.com.
I have a hankering to re-engage in the Edmonton social media scene after an absence of way over 2 years. I have some catching up to do!
The Refocus of This Blog:
I hope this blog is a link between the communities and people of Edmonton and Fort McMurray. I have realized that there is a lot of myth and misinformation about life in McMurray within Edmonton.
I love both communities and want to help enhance the collaborative relationships and expand the appreciation and understanding of what great things the two regions can do together for mutual benefit and the greater good.
This blog is to become a focal point for that end. Of course I will be opinionated but I will also be informed and hopefully sufficiently authoritative to be worthy of your time and trust.
A New Job and a New Blog:
I have a new life now and a new position at Edmonton Economic Development and blogging is mandated there not discouraged. My mandate is to increase the collaboration between the Regional Municipality of Wood Buffalo and the Edmonton Capital Region in areas of business, sustainability and community well-being.
Part of the EED mandate is going to be covered in another blog about the Edmonton area involvement in the oil sands using the triple bottom line and sustainability principles. Edmontonians are owners of the oil sands and need to know more on how we can take care ensure the oil sands are developed in a responsible sustainable and sensible way.
We need to take our citizenship obligations seriously and demand from government and industry that oil sands resource development be more sustainable. We need to expect optimizing oil sands be for the general well-being of people. We need to expect our oil sands deliver enhanced environmental stewardship. We deserve development that is less wasteful and more profitable for the posterity of future Albertans.
I have a new blog to serve that purpose and I hope you visit regularly at www.oilsandsken.com.
I have a hankering to re-engage in the Edmonton social media scene after an absence of way over 2 years. I have some catching up to do!
The Refocus of This Blog:
I hope this blog is a link between the communities and people of Edmonton and Fort McMurray. I have realized that there is a lot of myth and misinformation about life in McMurray within Edmonton.
I love both communities and want to help enhance the collaborative relationships and expand the appreciation and understanding of what great things the two regions can do together for mutual benefit and the greater good.
This blog is to become a focal point for that end. Of course I will be opinionated but I will also be informed and hopefully sufficiently authoritative to be worthy of your time and trust.
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