Grumpy Alberta Voters Are Volatile On the Eve of an Election

The results of the next election in Alberta will not be because the voters wanted to throw out the incumbents or because there is a preferred option. Success in this election will not be because a party won or another lost. Victory will be earned by the leaders and by the hard work of each and every candidate. I believe the Alberta voter is generally cynical but also grumpy and nervous, even if they are doing well in this overheated economy.

Albertans are also in no mood to be trifled with. I think the “change” mentality coming out of the US Presidential races will emerge in the minds of Albertans in the pending election. That means the only safe seat in the province is likely Ed Stelmach’s. Candidates from all parties and in all corners of the province will have to earn votes at the doorsteps, through the phone lines and now on the Internet. Premier Stelmach as said repeatedly that the opportunity to govern is a privilege and not a right. Nothing can be taken for granted in this election.

Cambridge Strategies Inc. and The Policy Channel did a discrete choice modeling survey on what Albertans see as the important values needed for responsible and sustainable oil sands development. Results indicate there are two lines of though in the minds of Albertans. For example, an equal number of Albertans agree and disagree that their government is doing a good job on managing growth and our natural resources.

That means there is lots of volatility in the views of voters. They can be a fickle lot too. They can even change their minds at the last minute, like they did in the weekend before the 2006 federal election, putting pollsters and pundits in their place. The same thing happened as recently as the New Hampshire Democratic Primary where the voters confounded the pollsters.

The end result is the pending Alberta election outcome is not known and not easily predicted, at least not now. This is especially true based on the many and varied poll results we have been seeing. Some things are for sure. That is that election campaigns matter and they are about choice and change. In a democracy, you always get the government you deserve. That is true even if you don’t vote and choose to leave your future to be decided by other citizens who do vote.

I am usually a betting man on election outcomes, and I win more often than I lose. This Alberta election may be the first time I don’t think I can make a reasonable prediction on an outcome. I do not expect to be taking any bets on this election – even if I were offered odds.

No Reason Today Why Harper Should Not Govern Until November 2009

The majority of Canadians do not want a federal election in 2008. This is the finding of a Harris Decima poll released Jan 24. I tend to agree. Parliament voted for fixed election dates. Canadians see no big push for a quicker election. We voted in a minority government intentionally and unless Harper screws up so badly he can’t keep the confidence of the House – there is no reason for an Election until Nov 2009.

Harper says he still likes the job. I see no overriding reason now why he should not stay in the job. That may change but as of now…Harper has to responsibility so let him govern…as a minority.

Up to now the Liberal party organization has not been in a position to effectively run an election. Now they can. That is no reason to call an election. Lets now see Harper run a real minority government where he has the real risk of defeat if he continues to bully and blunder and bullshit.

Obama Win in South Carolina and is Proving That He is a Reason to Believe

Obama does it again…this time in South Carolina Primary with 55% of the vote. In four Primaries so far, he has the most, the most delegates and the support of a great diversity of people.

Obama sells hope and fortitude. Clinton sells same old...same old. The Republicans sell fear. Fear of immigrants, terrorists, losing the war(s) and now fear of the recession they caused.

Caroline Kennedy is reported to be endorsing Obama in the New York Times tomorrow. More momentum moving into Super Tuesday Feb 5.

Another masterful speech tonight that is reminiscent of the Iowa Caucus. Worth watching and here is the link

Oil Sands Survey to be Released Friday.

We are in the final stages of analysis on our discrete choice modelling survey of 1303 random Albertans on what values are most important for the future of oil sands development. We will be releasing the results on Friday where they will be posted on Policy Channel (www.policychannel.com)

Alberta has the most dynamic and fastest growing economy in the country. We have the largest per capita disposable income and the lowest unemployment rate and lowest overall taxes in the country. There are projects in progress and planned that total over $140B of investment – and this is just counting individual projects over $100M.

One of the most interesting findings in our survey turned on Albertans expectations on their quality of life. We have all kinds of serious and costly public infrastructure demands, population growth pressures, skills and staff shortages, rapidly increased housing costs and inflation once again creeping into our lives.

The social costs on families because of too few people doing too may jobs, and the pressure on community and social cohesion is starting to take its toll. Volunteerism is a hall mark of being an Albertan but people simply don’t have discretionary time any more to participate in community life like they used to.

In spite of all the economic activity, investment and wealth creation going on in Alberta, the pressures on people is taking a toll. Albertans are getting tired of trying to keep up the pace of work that is dominating their lives. Dealing with the implications of too much concentrated growth with insufficient social capital and human capital resources is showing up in Albertans feelings about their future quality of life.

When Albertans were asked about how they saw their quality of life changing in the next two years, our poll shows that only 4% believe their quality of life will improve dramatically. There were 24% who anticipated slight improvements. A third saw no change from the hectic pace and pressures they are dealing with. Interestingly 32% feel their lives will be slightly worse and 8% anticipated a dramatic worsening of their quality of life.

The Alberta Advantage is now a cliché in this province. While the advantage still exists, it has not trickled down enough to the ordinary citizen so they can see the upside working for them. The expectations of 40% of Albertans seeing their lives being worse off in 2 years and 33% seeing a current difficult situation persisting, clearly if this is a continuing reality it is unsustainable for many Albertans.

Poll Shows Stelmach is Strong but Darkening Clouds Exist

Alberta is all over the front pages and above the fold stories in the Globe and Mail. The Strategic Counsel poll is showing Premier Stelmach is doing much better in the minds of ordinary Albertans than with the energy industry C-suites in downtown Calgary. This is good news going into an election that will be called in about 2 weeks. I will do s specific post on this poll and

The Report on Business story is a bit more unsettling as it looks like the Alberta Minister of Energy is weakening on a strong stance on royalties with the Alberta oil and gas industry. The Stelmach government has to be careful to do any such review with the industry in public and not behind closed doors.

The Klein government had an all too cosy back room relationship with the energy industry and did not do a very good job of protecting the interests of the resource owners…ordinary Albertans.

Stelmach has recently instituted an all party legislative committee process. That is the proper place for the energy industry attend in public to make it case about the “unintended consequences” they are facing as a result of the royalty review decisions. The fundamental question is should the royalty rates which are rents, be used as a means to subsidize uneconomic high cost drilling and why shouldn’t the higher producing wells pay a higher royalty?

There is a difficult political situation around the trust level of Albertans have over how well their government has managed our natural resources and the growth in Alberta during the Klein years. Any hint of returning to the behind closed doors and back room deals between Alberta Energy and the industry on our resource management will come with a significant political cost to the Stelmach government.