My Blog post yesterday and my armchair speculation about what will happen next week is proving to be true. Premier Stelmach confirmed today in Calgary that the television presentation on Wednesday “… deliver only basic principles of the government’s response to the controversial royalty report – with specific details to come at a later date.
The “Our Fair Share” Royalty Review is mostly controversial in Calgary from the replies I get to this Blog.
Give it up, Ken. Your "Fair Share" report will not be implemented. The OSST will be scrapped, the changes to the pre payout and the post payout will be phased and tied to price, and the royalty curves on conventional oil and gas flattened to reflect today's reality. Bank on it.
ReplyDeleteAnon - I love you guys who are often wrong but absolutely never in doubt.
ReplyDeleteI will be paying careful attention next Thursday when the government plan comes out and we shall see if your inside information is as accurate as you alledge.
If you are right (and I doubt it) Calgary better get used to saying "How do you do Premier Taft."
We'll see who is right. You self styled political pundits, including much of the media, think you know everything. I laugh when I read some of the things you people say about what is happening inside government. You are like a weather forecaster...you can be wrong most of the time but you never have to be accountable.
ReplyDeleteI spoke to a motel operator north of Grande Prairie today and she said oil patch activity is way down because of the threatened royalty increase. I mentioned that the royalty increase was paltry compared to the increase in the price of oil so that couldn't be the reason. You don't suppose the oil companies are delaying their activity for a bit as a means of influencing the decision?
ReplyDeleteHarvey - the downturn in drilling was planned by the production companies’ months ago and the royalty review has nothing to do with the current "real" situation.
ReplyDeleteLots of threats and intimidation and it will impact low value high cost wells but that is the market at work.
Also the deep well royalty holiday is continuing and they only pay about a 20% royalty.
The decrease in activity is due to a number of things, the low commodity price of gas, where most drilling activity occurs, milder temperatures, the impact of LNG coming in is an increasing threat and currently the dramatic drop in the US dollar pushing up the Cdn$ but our industrial productivity is still poor.
Fear and intimidation winning the tactics of the industry over transparency and long term sustainability, beyond a short term cash flow focus seems to be the new normal.
I have confidence that Stelmach will pick what is good for Alberta generally and long term and he will not be intimidated or threatened by the posturing of some of the executive suites in the energy sector.
Not all energy companies are playing this intimidation and threats and name calling game. That tells us a lot too.