Every now and then you get a concise and comprehensive discussion of complex issues and how they inter-relate. It is well known that the communications cure for complexity is clarity not the KISS approach to merely making it simple but inevitably inaccurate.
Such is the case with the wonderful clarity of Derek DeCloet’s column in the Report on Business in today’s Globe and Mail. The key message is in the closing sentence where he says most Albertans don’t believe the doom and gloom messages of the oil patch. They also don’t appreciate the name calling and intimidation tactics they used.
At Cambridge Strategies we are in the middle of a major discrete choice modelling survey on Albertan’s value and attitudes about responsible and sustainable oil sands development. So far we have over 1300 Albertans telling us which of the current Alberta political party leaders do they trust the most to responsibly manage Alberta’s growth. The winner at 43% was NONE OF THE ABOVE.
Now it is over to the Stelmach government who was in second place in the survey with 33% trusting him. What will he say today about his government's approach to non-renewable resource royalties? What will it matter if most Albertans don’t believe or trust him or any of the other political leaders either?
Such is the case with the wonderful clarity of Derek DeCloet’s column in the Report on Business in today’s Globe and Mail. The key message is in the closing sentence where he says most Albertans don’t believe the doom and gloom messages of the oil patch. They also don’t appreciate the name calling and intimidation tactics they used.
At Cambridge Strategies we are in the middle of a major discrete choice modelling survey on Albertan’s value and attitudes about responsible and sustainable oil sands development. So far we have over 1300 Albertans telling us which of the current Alberta political party leaders do they trust the most to responsibly manage Alberta’s growth. The winner at 43% was NONE OF THE ABOVE.
Now it is over to the Stelmach government who was in second place in the survey with 33% trusting him. What will he say today about his government's approach to non-renewable resource royalties? What will it matter if most Albertans don’t believe or trust him or any of the other political leaders either?
The content of what Stelmach says today is going to be very important. But so is how he says it and if his presentation resonates with Albertans and and I am talking substance here - not speaking style. Equally important is how authentic Albertans perceive him to be when he announces his decision.
Today is indeed going to be a watershed day for Alberta, Albertans and political leaders from all parties to whom we have given our consent to govern us.
I just saw Stelmach's royalty review speech. He has left half billion on the table for the oil companies. He is not thinking like an owner. He is thinking like a guy who wants his party to get donations from oil companies. It was Albertans vs. oil companies and Stelmach picked oil.
ReplyDeleteThe Hunter Report was the compromise position. Hunter basically advocated that Alberta should be in the bottom quartile for royalties. Stelmach, like a skilled limbo dancer, went lower.
It is a sad day for Alberta and a watershed moment in our history.
I think Ken will do all kinds of contortions to say that Ed delivered.
ReplyDeleteGood god, he didn't leave 1/2 billion on the table and Hunter was not a compromise solution unless you take the Pembina/Parkland position that pushes for shutting down development.
ReplyDeleteAnd don't jump to any conclusions because we don't know the impact on gas. The numbers aren't out.
The jump in royalties on oil sands is significant. Anybody who says otherwise knows squat.
It was a weak presentation though.
Anon @ 8:02 - you are right - Stelmach did not leave 1/2B on the table. The Panel had only one gas rate they used and talking to Bill Hunter tonight he confirmed they did not calculate the costs of continuing the deep well royalty holiday or the flaring royalty subsidy.
ReplyDeleteThat is the difference 1/2B difference. Also appreciate, as I am sure you do, the assumptions on commodity prices, currency and exchange rates, inflation, and a host of other variables can impact the design of the calculation model and result in different end dollar outcomes.
The real issue is what is in the calculation and what the differences in the methodology used are and are they comparable. The variables can and are all over the map.
I was waiting to hear Stelmach say that the PC Party would pay back the $2 billion per year (for the past 7 years) that Hunter says the Cons missed out on.
ReplyDeleteAnon at 9:14 - this is a terrible breach of duty by the Klein regime and some of his Ministers of Energy. My advice is be careful who you elect. To not participate in this right of citizenship and to not even vote allows you (and the rest of us) to be taken for granted by government….like in this instance. Who were they working for? It sure wasn’t the citizens of Alberta.
ReplyDeleteI am very angry at this negligence and poor political judgment and betrayal of trust and duty too.
It is not the PC Party who is to blame. The PC Party is not your government. It is Ralph Klein and some his Energy Ministers who allowed this to happen and I blame them for this.
Remember Albertans held Ralph in high esteem and for his personal popularity to be at 70% was not unusual. Therefore we Albertans are partly to blame for this fiasco too because we did not exercise sound judgment. We Albertans let too many other inappropriate and poor judgment incidences slide and shrugged them off as being “just Ralph!”
I did not hold Klein in high esteem and wanted to kick the bum out long since. But Albertans were stupid and we also had an unfree press that licked Klein's feet all the time.
ReplyDeleteIt was a government run by Klein and a bunch of sheep; however, now Klein is gone, what makes you think the sheep will turn into PCs?
Are you trying to tell me that Klein and a few bad apples were responsible for the royalty mismanagement and not the PC party who form the government? Wasn't this the Federal Liberal excuse during sponsorship?
ReplyDeleteStelmach was in that Caucus, he was part of Kleins team and he is a PC. If you admit that their was 'this negligence and poor political judgment and betrayal of trust and duty' how can you support the party and the same members of that government that perpetrated that? I'm disappointed in you Ken.
Sorry to disappoint you but the bad apple analogy is exactly what I mean.
ReplyDelete