As I said in an earlier post the political attention in Alberta will shift from the WAP Leadership of Danielle Smith to the PC AGM confidence vote on the Stelmach leadership.
I see the WAP overplaying their hand already claiming to being "ready to govern" in the next election, likely less than 3 years away. They have one MLA through winning a protest vote by election in Calgary. They have the underwhelming support of less than 8500 Albertans who could be bothering to even mail in a ballot. That hardly makes the WAP a "party of winners" as they are now claiming.
The grumpy old Reformer type social conservatives had to be embarrassed by the poor showing of their SoCon candidate in the WAP leadership results. One even more extreme WAP leadership candidate withdrew from the contest without explanation. His anti-homosexual and closet Alberta separatist leanings didn't help promote what the new gentler big-tent party the new leader is calling for the WAP to become.
Smith, once selected to lead the WAP, was recently quoted as saying:
“Wildrose Alliance was seen even a few months ago as another marginal protest party. Now we’re the government in waiting”
“We’ve been doing a lot of cringing and ducking to avoid being labeled extremist. We should now stop. It’s undignified.”
But it's true the newly merged Wildrose and Alliance parties are full of extremists. Nice to see the new leader admitting that they have been "cringing and ducking to avoid" the label. It is not a label. It is the truth. The WAP can expect Albertans to cringe as this traditionalist political party tries to duck and hide from its yester-year discriminatory social policies.
I see the old-boys club of certain disgruntled Calgarians elites, who used to get direct and personal political access to Premier Klein back in the day, are now taking their shots at Premier Stelmach...including the former Premier himself. Shabby! I take my shots on the government too but I try to keep my criticism on policy and politics - not personality.
I was recalling the Klein-Betkowski PC leadership contest back in 1992. There were some elements in the Klein support base who said about Betkowski that "They were not going to be lead by that uppity educated city woman." Some of those same elements are now supporting Smith. I figure there must be some progress being made.
The biggest mistake we made in the Betkowski leadership campaign was to beat Ralph by 1 vote on the first ballot. The Klein forces came out of their self-satisfied shell and kicked our butts on the second ballot, even after every other candidate came to the Betkowski side.
We will have to wait and see if the Stelmach forces respond to the WAP in the same way by energizing and engaging. The reality still is the PC Party and the Stelmach government can choose to lose and even by the time the next election rolls around. If that happens then they will have both collaborated to engineer their mutual demise. November 7 at the PC AGM should give us some early warning signs as to what will emerge.
Danielle Smith's leadership victory and the recent WAP election result will be merely a catalyst for creating or the consciousness for change. She and the WAP are not necessarily going to set the direction or the destination from such change. There are other political forces afoot that may come into play. There may be a push for rebooting Alberta and designing a political agenda and alternative towards a more progressive direction and destination.
As Ralph used to say, "Stay tuned."
Interesting analysis Ken. I am an "educated city woman," hopefully not uppity, but most certainly "progressive." If the emergence of the WAP prompts people to be interested enough to read party policy platforms, I will be happy. But, I hope that people are not simply swayed by the hyperbole of media sound bites. I hope that they actually carefully review the WAP's party platform along with other parties, and that they actually get out and vote. The famous 5 would turn in their graves if they knew that only 40% of people eligible to vote did so in the last election. We need a political resurgence that rectifies deficits in the fundamental underpinnings of our democratic process.
ReplyDeleteI tend to think of Smith not as a game changer but rather a wild card.
ReplyDeleteThe big money table is still the PC Party and the high stakes game is the is the the leadership review.
Can Stelmach win? Is 70% really enough for him to stay?
Even if he reaches Ralph Klein's aspirational target, Stelmach would still have failed to garner the support of 3 in 10 from within his own party.
Assuming Stelmach stays on at 70% approval, the next step belongs to that discontented 30%.
The obvious question, "Would they leave?" is followed almost immediately by "Would they be missed?"
To me, the bigger question is whether ceding the far right to the WAPjobs would result in a more mainstream PC Party - a party less focused on its fringes and more on mainstream Albertans - with or without Ed Stelmach.
No, the big money is no longer at the PC party table. Danielle raised more money in her 4 1/2 month leadership bid than Ed Stelmach raised in a 1 1/2 year long bid. The party's finances are suffering tremendously - why do you think they have the new rules about splitting funds when Premier and Ministers speak at constituency fundraising events?
ReplyDeleteI initially thought Ed would have no problem with his leadership review. However, today a cabinet minister told a reporter that Ed was a dead man walking and the minister is afraid of losing his seat if Ed stays on.
There was also some talk about how MLA"s were previously encouraging delegates to give Ed a favourable review but now they're supposedly telling delegates to vote their conscience because if Ed does poorly (55 - 60%) it will give the party enough time to choose a leader and build in time for the next election.
Jim Prentice, Ted Morton, Jim Dinning, Diane Ablonczy, Monte Solberg, Doug Horner, Dave Hancock, Stockwell Day, and Allison Redford were all touted as possible leadership candidates in the event the review goes poorly.
I would've thought an 80% threshold would've been a cakewalk a few weeks ago - gotta admit, not so sure these days.
I don't think that's true. The Sask Party and BC Liberals both have much higher amounts when the Premier or a minister attends events. Plus I know the riding association in my area has been raising a lot of money.
ReplyDeleteLOL a funny post Ken. Did the WAP gain another 10000 extremists in the party since June. I almost think maybe your starting a new political movement and like any other party feel the need to try and discredit an new exciting party. Starting to sound like the PC's with your comments, whats next splitting the vote? Thanks for the laugh.
ReplyDelete"Stay tuned" is right. Whether Wild Rose people are extremists are not, they are bringing in lots of dollars. To the extent that this is oil money, I don't expect the donors care two whits about policies you label extremist. They just want to make sure they can develop "their" resources with as little public accountability and as low royalty payments as possible.
ReplyDeleteAs for Stelmach, the man is probably a dead duck. Whether it's the Tories or the Alberta electorate who put him out of misery remains to be seen. Either way, there's now a momentum for something different. Different may not be better. But after nearly 40 years, the Tories are too smug and complacent.
And the Alberta Altruist should show his true colours. Clearly he's on the payroll of some WAPjobs.
ReplyDeleteAnon 5:46
ReplyDeleteGood one. I wish I got paid, just another right wing extremist I am afraid. As for true colour I am bluish, purple, green depending on the topic. I read Kens blog because I can respect his point of view. It does not mean I have to agree with it:)