Here is a link to yet another excellent Sunday Reader feature in the Edmonton Journal by Sheila Pratt on what it might take to get a reconciliation between industry the environmentalists and our governments on what is appropriate oil sands development approaches. I was interviewed by Sheila for this piece and pleased to participate.
What we need now is an adult conversation in Alberta and by Albertans on how we want to see our oil sands resources developed. The basis for that conversation should be framed from the findings of our resent research at Cambridge Strategies Inc. on the values Albertan's want to see guide and drive oil sands development was done in collaboration with OSRIN (Oil Sands Research and Information Network)
The citizens of Alberta need to create the place and space for that conversation to take place. That can be in community meetings, church basements, coffee shops, service clubs, business groups, union halls, educational institutions, political gatherings and kitchen tables, just to name a few. That conversation can begin where ever one Albertan takes the time to asks another about what they want to see done to assure us that our natural resource is being responsibly developed so we can be proud of all the outcomes.
I am quoted in the Edmonton Journal story saying Albertans are starting to lose pride in the province. I believe this to be true partly because our research shows only 31% of Albertans believe the oil sands resource in being managed well. The Influentials in the province are at the forefront of this emerging sense of a loss of pride in being Albertan. When asked if they tell others great things about living in Alberta only 51% of Influentials agreed or strongly agreed and only 45% of them would strongly recommend living in Alberta to a friend.
UPDATE: REX MURPHY ASKS WHY AREN'T WE PROUD OF THE OIL SANDS? This industry also needs a human face and not just the nice folks who work in the industry that populate the full page colour newspaper ads the industry is wasting money on - as if that would persuade us of authenticity, trustworthiness and integrity
The reason the opinions of Influentials are so important is because they are trend setters and opinion leaders. These are the people the rest of the population relies on to help form our own thoughts on issues, ideas and many of the decisions we make in our lives. Some have suggested what Influentials think today is what the general population will be thinking in 12 to 18 months from now.
That is why government and industry better start a more meaningful, serious and adult conversation with Albertans about what we want to see happening with the development of our resource. After all it is Albertans who own the oil sands. Industry is a mere tenant that depends on public confidence to gain and sustain a social license to operate their businesses be it forests, oil and gas or oil sands.
As for government their equivalent of a social license it to be seen worthy of the citizen's consent to govern. Right now all of the political parties and their leaders in are seen to be less than adequate to the task of effectively managing the growth of Alberta. When Albertans were asked who did they think was best able to responsibly manage Alberta's growth the results were astonishing. Premier Ed Stelmach was the choice of 23%, Danielle Smith garnered 19%, David Swann had 9% and Brian Mason only 4%. None of the Above was the assessment of 45% of the 1032 Albertans who were in the random survey done last May.
Change is in the air and alternatives are needed based on this survey result. If you want a progressive political culture in the Next Alberta register now for RebootAlberta 3.0 at www.rebootalberta.org
Showing posts with label Smith. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Smith. Show all posts
Sunday, October 03, 2010
Wednesday, August 04, 2010
What Do Albertans Expect as Owners of the Oil Sands?
There is a PR and spin battle going on for the hearts and minds of the public over oil sands. The battle is between the Government of Alberta the oil sands industry and some segments of the ENGOs (Environmental Non-government Organizations.)
The prime targets are Albertans, Canadians, businesses outside of Alberta who benefit from oil sand development and key American politicians who are fixated on a “dirty oil” message around the oil sands. The tactics being used to various degrees by all contestants are paid advertising and PR spin.
We see the ENGO tactic of Corporate Ethics International paying for bill board advertising in a four select US cities calling for a “Rethink” of traveling to Alberta due to our so-called “dirty oil.” There were some significant factual errors about the size of oil sands mining operation in the Corporate Ethics messages. It became a game of “he said - she said” generating more heat than light about the reality of the oil sands.
But there are other media motivated manoeuvres being employed by ENGOs. Just yesterday Greenpeace performed another one of its publicity stunt and will get a bunch of media coverage as a result. They hung a banner from the iconic Calgary Tower and message was “Separate Oil and State.” Two protester wearing Premier Stelmach and Prime Minister Harper facemasks were chained to oil barrels with “Dirty Oil” written on them. Eight of these Greenpeace protesters were arrested and that will give the story some legs in the media.
We see the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers running magazine and television ads using real people involved in oil sands technology, research and reclamation in an attempt to get an authentic human connection to the industry efforts to justify their social license to operate.
The Stelmach government is launching another quarter million dollar newspaper advertising push to “tell the world about the oil sands.” Early indications are these ads are aimed at Albertans and Canadians and if that is the case that is hardly “telling the world.” The recent rejection of a Letter to the Editor by Premier Stelmach to a Washington DC newspaper resulted in the purchase of a half page ad in that paper to run the letter as a way to get the message out to key US politicians. Last time the Alberta government launched a paid advertising campaign on the oil sands it earmarked $25 million dollars glossy advertisements. There was also some misleading in the content and context discovered in the campaign and it was quietly abandoned.
That is all by way of background for what I really want to talk. If you want to connect with the hearts and minds of the public you should try to find out want is on their minds and in their hearts first. Then you should talk to the public about oil sands matters that concern them. There is a need for a conversation between government and industry about the responsible and sustainable development of the oil sands. After all it is Albertan’s who own the oil sands.
But are paid advertising campaigns anything close to a “conversation” with the public. The paid advertising approach is often seen as self-serving one-way messages to the public. There is a place for paid advertising in communications. But in complex matters like oil sands development advertising alone is no substitute for substantial, authentic, accurate, clear and resonant conversations with the public.
So what is it about oil sands development that the Alberta public is concerned about? What information do they want? What do they believe ought to be the values used by decision makers as their oil sands are being developed? How confident are they in the decision makers in government and industry about oil sands development? At Cambridge Strategies we have designed and deployed a random sample survey with 1032 Albertans to get at what is on their minds and in their hearts about oil sands development.
I will be doing more blog posts on this in the future but for now I want to delve a bit deeper into a survey finding that was reported in the Edmonton Journal today under the headline “Many Albertans Onside with Gov’t Handling of the Oilsands.” It is very difficult to take a statistic and isolate it from the larger context and write a meaningful headline that also grabs attention. So I will temper my criticism because while the headline is accurate I am not sure it really captures all the implications and essence of the findings. That requires a bit more reflection and interpretation.
There were some survey questions that were attitudinal and not part of the value choice questions in the conjoint study. So they are more like opinion polling questions and relate to a moment in time only. The value choice conjoint questions on what Albertans believe should guide and drive policy decisions on oil sands development are a more reliable source of what people want and expect over time for oil sands development.
Here is a more comprehensive look at how “onside” Albertans are with the government handling of the oil sands.
The question asked was: “The Alberta government is responsibly managing the oilsands.” The response was:
- Completely Agree 6%
- Agree 25%
- Slightly Agree 34%
- Slightly Disagree 17%
- Disagree 13%
- Completely Disagree 5%
What is it that would make Albertans in the middle group move one direction or another? If the hearts and minds of 51% of Albertans are up for grabs what would influence them to shift one way or another about how they feel their government is doing in terms of responsible management of the oil sands. This is not a minor issue because the survey also found that 89% of Albertans believe the oil sands are either Extremely Important (47%) or Very Important (42%) to Alberta’s prosperity.
Another serious influence on this question is how much confidence Albertans currently have in the political leaders and parties who must make public policy about what constitutes responsible and sustainable oil sands development. That result is also in the Edmonton Journal story but it needs to be more directly related to the first question. Again this must be looked at in terms or a possible trend.
The question was: “Who do you trust the most to responsibly manage Alberta’s growth.” Premier Ed Stelmach of the Progressive Conservative Party was at 23%, Danielle Smith of the Wildrose Alliance was 19%. David Swann of the Liberals was 9% and Brian Mason of the NDP came in at 4%. The largest segment was None of the Above at 45%. This indicates some potential for change in Alberta politics but there is not viable political alternative in the minds of most Albertans these days.
There is great deal more opinion related results in the survey and they are published at the Edmonton Journal Notebook Blog too. It is important to review them all and consider the implications as whole and not just individual questions.
Monday, July 19, 2010
When and What Will the Next Alberta Election Be About?
I get a strange feeling the Stelmach government is easing into the election prep stage known as The Red Zone. That is where not much happens in governance because they don’t want to make political mistakes. With the rise of the “pungent and pink” Wildrose the current government, if not in the Red Zone, it is definitely concerned about the Wildrose “pink zone” of election readiness.
I don’t think we will have a snap election in Alberta but I would not count on Stelmach waiting until March 2012 as stated earlier. Alberta is mindful of many external forces influencing its election timing. For example there is potential for a federal election late this fall or next spring. It may happen over the next budget or, depending if Harper thinks he can get a majority, he will engineer his own defeat. The midterm US elections will be watched carefully by the Stelmach government for policy trends that impact energy policy and oil sands development.
Then there are domestic concerns about election timing. The Stelmach government had an approval rating of 12% in a recent survey of Albertans. The economy is apparently recovering but is it due to the billions of provincial and federal government stimulus money or is it authentic economic growth at play? Are we into a slow and steady economic turn around or a double dip recession? Too early to tell yet and economist are pointing in every direction, as usual.
Then we have the volatility of politics to consider too. There is change in the air in Alberta these days. And what form that will take is still unclear. Albertan’s self –image from environmental pressures and negative PR is eating away at our pride of place, our self-confidence and our self-esteem. Albertans are clear that oil sands are critically important to our future prosperity. But they are now questioning themselves and their government about how well this resource is being developed and managed.
The lack of faith in the leadership in any of the current political parties is another measure of volatility. We recently asked a random sample of over 1000 Albertans which political leader they trusted most to manage the growth in the Alberta economy. The results brought a sharp focus on the general disaffection Albertans have with the current crop of political leaders. Only 4% picked the NDP’s Brian Mason. Some 9% trusted Liberal leader David Swann. As for The Wildrose and Danielle Smith only 19% would put their management trust in her. Premier Ed Stelmach of the PCs garnered a scant 23% who said they trusted him the most to manage Alberta’s growth. Here is the kicker – 45% of us said we mostly trusted none of them to manage the growth of the Alberta economy. That survey outcome speaks to potential for serious political change but begs the question – change to what alternative?
Now add in the right-wing conservative political culture war that is raging in Alberta between Progressive Conservatives and the Wildrose Alliance Party. With Ted Morton’s move to Minister of Finance and Enterprise he is doing the next budget for the spring of 2011. We can expect his ideological fingerprints will to be all over the economic and fiscal policy direction of Alberta by next year. Kevin Libin has a very insightful and telling column in a recent edition of the National Post on the Morton factor in Alberta politics and policy directions. I recommend you read it.
If Kevin is right in his observations about Minister Morton, and my comments he quotes about Minister Morton from 2006 are still valid (and Morton himself says they are) then we have another fly-in-the-ointment political dynamic that will influence the election timing.
What if the PCs become less progressive and more Morton-like conservative between now and the next election? What if the defacto election battle on the right is between the Sorcerer Morton and Smith, his former Apprentice from the Calgary School? Where does that leave Stelmach? Where do progressives go given the current anemic political alternatives they are being offered? What does the next Alberta look like if only the radical right and reactionary left show up to vote?
We need a viable progressive political alternative in Alberta. The current situation is untenable for any thoughtful Albertan who sees a positive balanced role for responsible, accountable, open and honest government. Reboot Alberta is not a political party but it is a way to influence and shape any new or existing political party. We need to show the powers that be and any that want to be that they must move towards a more inclusive and effective approach to a more contemporary political culture that reflects the next Alberta instead of trying to perfect the past.
Efforts are afoot for staging Reboot 3.0 in late October to look at a more activist approach to bring the progressive agenda and voice back to Alberta politics. Stay tuned for more information here and to join the Reboot Alberta citizen's movement go to http://www.rebootalberta.org/
I don’t think we will have a snap election in Alberta but I would not count on Stelmach waiting until March 2012 as stated earlier. Alberta is mindful of many external forces influencing its election timing. For example there is potential for a federal election late this fall or next spring. It may happen over the next budget or, depending if Harper thinks he can get a majority, he will engineer his own defeat. The midterm US elections will be watched carefully by the Stelmach government for policy trends that impact energy policy and oil sands development.
Then there are domestic concerns about election timing. The Stelmach government had an approval rating of 12% in a recent survey of Albertans. The economy is apparently recovering but is it due to the billions of provincial and federal government stimulus money or is it authentic economic growth at play? Are we into a slow and steady economic turn around or a double dip recession? Too early to tell yet and economist are pointing in every direction, as usual.
Then we have the volatility of politics to consider too. There is change in the air in Alberta these days. And what form that will take is still unclear. Albertan’s self –image from environmental pressures and negative PR is eating away at our pride of place, our self-confidence and our self-esteem. Albertans are clear that oil sands are critically important to our future prosperity. But they are now questioning themselves and their government about how well this resource is being developed and managed.
The lack of faith in the leadership in any of the current political parties is another measure of volatility. We recently asked a random sample of over 1000 Albertans which political leader they trusted most to manage the growth in the Alberta economy. The results brought a sharp focus on the general disaffection Albertans have with the current crop of political leaders. Only 4% picked the NDP’s Brian Mason. Some 9% trusted Liberal leader David Swann. As for The Wildrose and Danielle Smith only 19% would put their management trust in her. Premier Ed Stelmach of the PCs garnered a scant 23% who said they trusted him the most to manage Alberta’s growth. Here is the kicker – 45% of us said we mostly trusted none of them to manage the growth of the Alberta economy. That survey outcome speaks to potential for serious political change but begs the question – change to what alternative?
Now add in the right-wing conservative political culture war that is raging in Alberta between Progressive Conservatives and the Wildrose Alliance Party. With Ted Morton’s move to Minister of Finance and Enterprise he is doing the next budget for the spring of 2011. We can expect his ideological fingerprints will to be all over the economic and fiscal policy direction of Alberta by next year. Kevin Libin has a very insightful and telling column in a recent edition of the National Post on the Morton factor in Alberta politics and policy directions. I recommend you read it.
If Kevin is right in his observations about Minister Morton, and my comments he quotes about Minister Morton from 2006 are still valid (and Morton himself says they are) then we have another fly-in-the-ointment political dynamic that will influence the election timing.
What if the PCs become less progressive and more Morton-like conservative between now and the next election? What if the defacto election battle on the right is between the Sorcerer Morton and Smith, his former Apprentice from the Calgary School? Where does that leave Stelmach? Where do progressives go given the current anemic political alternatives they are being offered? What does the next Alberta look like if only the radical right and reactionary left show up to vote?
We need a viable progressive political alternative in Alberta. The current situation is untenable for any thoughtful Albertan who sees a positive balanced role for responsible, accountable, open and honest government. Reboot Alberta is not a political party but it is a way to influence and shape any new or existing political party. We need to show the powers that be and any that want to be that they must move towards a more inclusive and effective approach to a more contemporary political culture that reflects the next Alberta instead of trying to perfect the past.
Efforts are afoot for staging Reboot 3.0 in late October to look at a more activist approach to bring the progressive agenda and voice back to Alberta politics. Stay tuned for more information here and to join the Reboot Alberta citizen's movement go to http://www.rebootalberta.org/
Monday, January 04, 2010
Forsyth and Anderson Cross the Floor on the Stelmach Government
So another shoe drops on the heads of Alberta PC government with two Progressive Conservative MLA defections to the Wildrose Alliance Party today. My guess is this is just the start and we can expect some more MLAs to be evaluating their future with the current government.
Rob Anderson is a social conservative and has been pushing buttons in the government for a while now. His head and heart is more aligned to a far right political philosophy. He was a big proponent of the Bill 44 that was push through in spite of protestations of progressive Albertans. The raw political power push to pass that draconian social conservative legislation was a tipping point event for progressive Albertan’s attitude about “their” government. It made many progressives in the PC party realizes they were no longer being listened to, including me.
I was surprised that Heather Forsyth being one of the early defections. I know and respect Heather and know her to be a quality person and conscientious MLA. She is a political realist too. From listening to her reason to cross today, there was the usual stuff about representing her constituency but there was more. She listed a lot of serious issues and concerns about the Stelmach government’s approach to many social and economic concerns she has been dealing with at the door steps. She said the “government has lost its way” and commented that “Albertans need to feel proud of their province” again. I think she is right and those realities resonate.
These decisions are never easy. Both of these MLAs have to be taken seriously and I respect their decisions. But I sense this is just a beginning not the end of Stelmach’s woes with the Wildrose Alliance. I would not be surprised if more PC MLA defections are in the Wildrose plan but don’t expect anything until after the Cabinet Shuffle.
Reality in politics is about perception and just because that’s a cliché does not mean it is not true. Perceptions come from stories and narratives more than facts. The emerging narrative is that the PCs are in disarray. They are scrambling for relevance and respect and squandering what they have left of both qualities. The WAP is getting organized and has been an effective place to park ones protect about the PCs.
Today the narrative changed – dramatically. Today the cracks in the brain trust of the Stelmach leadership are being discussed by disaffected former party and government loyalists like Heather Forsyth. The light is shining in and what we are seeing is not helping the plight of the PC government or its leadership. The defector’s new conference comments today about the Stelmach government being undemocratic, authoritarian, intimidating and bullying inside the caucus reflects badly on the government. These same innuendos and coercion tactics have been happening from the government about many vulnerable but courageous people outside politics too. I know this from direct experience and reports from the not-for-profit community based social service sectors, most recently in the Persons with Developmental Disabilities area.
Here is another narrative that is totally speculative but as plausible as any other in the volatile and variable world that Alberta politics in now all about. Consider this story line. What if Ted Morton is not happy with his Cabinet position in the coming shuffle? Why would he stay in the Stelmach government? I don’t think he will cross the floor however. He will resign and return to the University of Calgary. His leave of absence from the U of C must be running out and if he does not return could he lose his tenure? He is not going to be Premier via the PCs or the WAP route so why stay in politics? He resigns and causes a by-election just outside of Calgary that Danielle Smith wins. She owes Morton big time as a result and he can then become anything he wants to be in advising and directing the future of the WAP.
Even the plausibility of this narrative will smoke out the rest of the disenchanted social conservatives in the PC caucus to jump to the WAP in the coming weeks. The internal politics will preoccupy and destabilize the government for some time to come. The more serious question is what will Stelmach do in response?
That is fodder for another blog post at another time. For now I think Albertans will be watching for big internal changes in the Premier’s office and in the Cabinet as well as with the fiscal, social and environmental policy agenda this month. Realistically, I see no scenario emerging today that would see a rebalance of the PC government towards a fiscally conservative and socially progressive and a resource stewardship and conservation mindset. That was the hallmark of the glory days of the PC party in Premier Lougheed’s day. To my mind we need to restore that kind of political culture so we Albertans can be proud of our province once again.
Rob Anderson is a social conservative and has been pushing buttons in the government for a while now. His head and heart is more aligned to a far right political philosophy. He was a big proponent of the Bill 44 that was push through in spite of protestations of progressive Albertans. The raw political power push to pass that draconian social conservative legislation was a tipping point event for progressive Albertan’s attitude about “their” government. It made many progressives in the PC party realizes they were no longer being listened to, including me.
I was surprised that Heather Forsyth being one of the early defections. I know and respect Heather and know her to be a quality person and conscientious MLA. She is a political realist too. From listening to her reason to cross today, there was the usual stuff about representing her constituency but there was more. She listed a lot of serious issues and concerns about the Stelmach government’s approach to many social and economic concerns she has been dealing with at the door steps. She said the “government has lost its way” and commented that “Albertans need to feel proud of their province” again. I think she is right and those realities resonate.
These decisions are never easy. Both of these MLAs have to be taken seriously and I respect their decisions. But I sense this is just a beginning not the end of Stelmach’s woes with the Wildrose Alliance. I would not be surprised if more PC MLA defections are in the Wildrose plan but don’t expect anything until after the Cabinet Shuffle.
Reality in politics is about perception and just because that’s a cliché does not mean it is not true. Perceptions come from stories and narratives more than facts. The emerging narrative is that the PCs are in disarray. They are scrambling for relevance and respect and squandering what they have left of both qualities. The WAP is getting organized and has been an effective place to park ones protect about the PCs.
Today the narrative changed – dramatically. Today the cracks in the brain trust of the Stelmach leadership are being discussed by disaffected former party and government loyalists like Heather Forsyth. The light is shining in and what we are seeing is not helping the plight of the PC government or its leadership. The defector’s new conference comments today about the Stelmach government being undemocratic, authoritarian, intimidating and bullying inside the caucus reflects badly on the government. These same innuendos and coercion tactics have been happening from the government about many vulnerable but courageous people outside politics too. I know this from direct experience and reports from the not-for-profit community based social service sectors, most recently in the Persons with Developmental Disabilities area.
Here is another narrative that is totally speculative but as plausible as any other in the volatile and variable world that Alberta politics in now all about. Consider this story line. What if Ted Morton is not happy with his Cabinet position in the coming shuffle? Why would he stay in the Stelmach government? I don’t think he will cross the floor however. He will resign and return to the University of Calgary. His leave of absence from the U of C must be running out and if he does not return could he lose his tenure? He is not going to be Premier via the PCs or the WAP route so why stay in politics? He resigns and causes a by-election just outside of Calgary that Danielle Smith wins. She owes Morton big time as a result and he can then become anything he wants to be in advising and directing the future of the WAP.
Even the plausibility of this narrative will smoke out the rest of the disenchanted social conservatives in the PC caucus to jump to the WAP in the coming weeks. The internal politics will preoccupy and destabilize the government for some time to come. The more serious question is what will Stelmach do in response?
That is fodder for another blog post at another time. For now I think Albertans will be watching for big internal changes in the Premier’s office and in the Cabinet as well as with the fiscal, social and environmental policy agenda this month. Realistically, I see no scenario emerging today that would see a rebalance of the PC government towards a fiscally conservative and socially progressive and a resource stewardship and conservation mindset. That was the hallmark of the glory days of the PC party in Premier Lougheed’s day. To my mind we need to restore that kind of political culture so we Albertans can be proud of our province once again.
Friday, December 11, 2009
This is the Winter of Stelmach’s Disconnect
The latest Angus Reid poll putting the Alberta PCs in a second-place tie with the Liberals (25% each – ouch) will shake the confidence of the caucus and stir the cauldron of discontent that has been on a slow boil within the Stelmach government for some time now.
I have not seen the poll questions or actual results myself. I am commenting off newspaper reports. Jason Fekete wrote the front page blockbuster story and is a very good and reliable reporter. I have no reason to mistrust the facts he presents. There is always more intrigue in polling results when you take some time to dig a bit deeper. When I see the actual results I will do another post and put some political context around the numbers.
With apologies to Buffalo Springfield;” Something’s happening here? What it is ain’t exactly clear.” PC supporters must feel a bit like the day after the 1995 Referendum. The Quebec separatists lost with the thinnest of margins and Canada was “saved.” It was shocking and unnerving to many of us in the rest of Canada who realized, for the first time, how much public sentiment had shifted in Quebec.
That same unease and uncertainty is how I feel today as a progressive Albertan in the face of the Wildrose Alliance. How can it be that they are being seen as the only potentially “viable” political option in Alberta? The question of is what is happening here is quite frankly very clear.
Here is part of what I see happening politically in Alberta these days. The PCs are clearly past their best before date. They have been around too long. They are now well beyond being tired, stale and bland. They have proven to be inept and ineffective in too many instances and appear to be chronically maladaptive. Everyone in Alberta paying attention to politics knows, or at least, senses this.
The political and policy shifts by the Stelmach government have been disconcerting to many. It started with the vacillating responses to the Royalty Review, all through the last election and the humiliating third place showing in the Glenmore by-election and the fiasco that was Bill 44 and Bill 50. They all reinforce the growing sense of disdain by citizens towards their government. It is a government who is not listening and showing abject indifference to legitimate concerns and objections. The PC government’s disconnect with Albertans sees them now responding defensively, using threats, intimidation and belligerence as priority “governing principles” - just to keep people in line.
The Liberals and NDP are seen as insipid and uninspiring alternatives to the comatose Conservative regime. They are not perceived as a potential primetime government in waiting. The Greens have implode and disappeared in the most bizarre of circumstances. And that leaves the Wildrose as the only possible alternative to consider – at this time? Spare us please.
The ascendance of Danielle Smith on the political scene as been covered by the traditional media with an E-Talk! level of celebrity-centric perspicacity. So much more needs to be known and understood about the Wildrose Alliance and in particular their social and environmental policies, principles and values. We don’t even know if they have people who would be the kind of candidates with character and qualities worthy of our consent to be governed.
This Angus Reid poll shows a dramatic spike in Wildrose Alliance “popularity.” It says little, if anything, about them however. It is not very relevant to the fortunes of the Wildrose Alliance in the larger political scheme of things. At least not now given that we are so far away from any chance of a general election, currently expected in March 2012. It does, however, speak volumes about the shortcomings and disenchantment Albertans have for the other provincial political parties.
Bottom line – the Angus Reid outcome is an opinion poll. It is not a statement about a deeper judgment that citizens have to make about who will govern us when an election is actually looming. My sense is most of the Wildrose Alliance support in this poll is about sending a message to the other parties. The message is that they are not doing the job rather than a positive choice in support of the WAP. If you added an option in this poll for “None of the Above” I’m betting they would end up being be the most popular party in Alberta today.
So take a Valium Alberta. And in the meantime you better dust off your citizenship and park your political indifference and cynicism. They are luxuries you can no longer afford. If you don't re-engage as informed and involved citizens and WAP forms the next government you will be delegating decisions to fundamenalist, traditionalist and social conservative values throw-backs of a bygone era. Indifference means those people will get elected and they will be making all the political and value choices for and about you, your life and your liberties.
Govern yourselves Accordingly Alberta!
I have not seen the poll questions or actual results myself. I am commenting off newspaper reports. Jason Fekete wrote the front page blockbuster story and is a very good and reliable reporter. I have no reason to mistrust the facts he presents. There is always more intrigue in polling results when you take some time to dig a bit deeper. When I see the actual results I will do another post and put some political context around the numbers.
With apologies to Buffalo Springfield;” Something’s happening here? What it is ain’t exactly clear.” PC supporters must feel a bit like the day after the 1995 Referendum. The Quebec separatists lost with the thinnest of margins and Canada was “saved.” It was shocking and unnerving to many of us in the rest of Canada who realized, for the first time, how much public sentiment had shifted in Quebec.
That same unease and uncertainty is how I feel today as a progressive Albertan in the face of the Wildrose Alliance. How can it be that they are being seen as the only potentially “viable” political option in Alberta? The question of is what is happening here is quite frankly very clear.
Here is part of what I see happening politically in Alberta these days. The PCs are clearly past their best before date. They have been around too long. They are now well beyond being tired, stale and bland. They have proven to be inept and ineffective in too many instances and appear to be chronically maladaptive. Everyone in Alberta paying attention to politics knows, or at least, senses this.
The political and policy shifts by the Stelmach government have been disconcerting to many. It started with the vacillating responses to the Royalty Review, all through the last election and the humiliating third place showing in the Glenmore by-election and the fiasco that was Bill 44 and Bill 50. They all reinforce the growing sense of disdain by citizens towards their government. It is a government who is not listening and showing abject indifference to legitimate concerns and objections. The PC government’s disconnect with Albertans sees them now responding defensively, using threats, intimidation and belligerence as priority “governing principles” - just to keep people in line.
The Liberals and NDP are seen as insipid and uninspiring alternatives to the comatose Conservative regime. They are not perceived as a potential primetime government in waiting. The Greens have implode and disappeared in the most bizarre of circumstances. And that leaves the Wildrose as the only possible alternative to consider – at this time? Spare us please.
The ascendance of Danielle Smith on the political scene as been covered by the traditional media with an E-Talk! level of celebrity-centric perspicacity. So much more needs to be known and understood about the Wildrose Alliance and in particular their social and environmental policies, principles and values. We don’t even know if they have people who would be the kind of candidates with character and qualities worthy of our consent to be governed.
This Angus Reid poll shows a dramatic spike in Wildrose Alliance “popularity.” It says little, if anything, about them however. It is not very relevant to the fortunes of the Wildrose Alliance in the larger political scheme of things. At least not now given that we are so far away from any chance of a general election, currently expected in March 2012. It does, however, speak volumes about the shortcomings and disenchantment Albertans have for the other provincial political parties.
Bottom line – the Angus Reid outcome is an opinion poll. It is not a statement about a deeper judgment that citizens have to make about who will govern us when an election is actually looming. My sense is most of the Wildrose Alliance support in this poll is about sending a message to the other parties. The message is that they are not doing the job rather than a positive choice in support of the WAP. If you added an option in this poll for “None of the Above” I’m betting they would end up being be the most popular party in Alberta today.
So take a Valium Alberta. And in the meantime you better dust off your citizenship and park your political indifference and cynicism. They are luxuries you can no longer afford. If you don't re-engage as informed and involved citizens and WAP forms the next government you will be delegating decisions to fundamenalist, traditionalist and social conservative values throw-backs of a bygone era. Indifference means those people will get elected and they will be making all the political and value choices for and about you, your life and your liberties.
Govern yourselves Accordingly Alberta!
Tuesday, October 20, 2009
Is Danielle Smith A Game Changer in Alberta Politics?
As I said in an earlier post the political attention in Alberta will shift from the WAP Leadership of Danielle Smith to the PC AGM confidence vote on the Stelmach leadership.
I see the WAP overplaying their hand already claiming to being "ready to govern" in the next election, likely less than 3 years away. They have one MLA through winning a protest vote by election in Calgary. They have the underwhelming support of less than 8500 Albertans who could be bothering to even mail in a ballot. That hardly makes the WAP a "party of winners" as they are now claiming.
The grumpy old Reformer type social conservatives had to be embarrassed by the poor showing of their SoCon candidate in the WAP leadership results. One even more extreme WAP leadership candidate withdrew from the contest without explanation. His anti-homosexual and closet Alberta separatist leanings didn't help promote what the new gentler big-tent party the new leader is calling for the WAP to become.
Smith, once selected to lead the WAP, was recently quoted as saying:
“Wildrose Alliance was seen even a few months ago as another marginal protest party. Now we’re the government in waiting”
“We’ve been doing a lot of cringing and ducking to avoid being labeled extremist. We should now stop. It’s undignified.”
But it's true the newly merged Wildrose and Alliance parties are full of extremists. Nice to see the new leader admitting that they have been "cringing and ducking to avoid" the label. It is not a label. It is the truth. The WAP can expect Albertans to cringe as this traditionalist political party tries to duck and hide from its yester-year discriminatory social policies.
I see the old-boys club of certain disgruntled Calgarians elites, who used to get direct and personal political access to Premier Klein back in the day, are now taking their shots at Premier Stelmach...including the former Premier himself. Shabby! I take my shots on the government too but I try to keep my criticism on policy and politics - not personality.
I was recalling the Klein-Betkowski PC leadership contest back in 1992. There were some elements in the Klein support base who said about Betkowski that "They were not going to be lead by that uppity educated city woman." Some of those same elements are now supporting Smith. I figure there must be some progress being made.
The biggest mistake we made in the Betkowski leadership campaign was to beat Ralph by 1 vote on the first ballot. The Klein forces came out of their self-satisfied shell and kicked our butts on the second ballot, even after every other candidate came to the Betkowski side.
We will have to wait and see if the Stelmach forces respond to the WAP in the same way by energizing and engaging. The reality still is the PC Party and the Stelmach government can choose to lose and even by the time the next election rolls around. If that happens then they will have both collaborated to engineer their mutual demise. November 7 at the PC AGM should give us some early warning signs as to what will emerge.
Danielle Smith's leadership victory and the recent WAP election result will be merely a catalyst for creating or the consciousness for change. She and the WAP are not necessarily going to set the direction or the destination from such change. There are other political forces afoot that may come into play. There may be a push for rebooting Alberta and designing a political agenda and alternative towards a more progressive direction and destination.
As Ralph used to say, "Stay tuned."
I see the WAP overplaying their hand already claiming to being "ready to govern" in the next election, likely less than 3 years away. They have one MLA through winning a protest vote by election in Calgary. They have the underwhelming support of less than 8500 Albertans who could be bothering to even mail in a ballot. That hardly makes the WAP a "party of winners" as they are now claiming.
The grumpy old Reformer type social conservatives had to be embarrassed by the poor showing of their SoCon candidate in the WAP leadership results. One even more extreme WAP leadership candidate withdrew from the contest without explanation. His anti-homosexual and closet Alberta separatist leanings didn't help promote what the new gentler big-tent party the new leader is calling for the WAP to become.
Smith, once selected to lead the WAP, was recently quoted as saying:
“Wildrose Alliance was seen even a few months ago as another marginal protest party. Now we’re the government in waiting”
“We’ve been doing a lot of cringing and ducking to avoid being labeled extremist. We should now stop. It’s undignified.”
But it's true the newly merged Wildrose and Alliance parties are full of extremists. Nice to see the new leader admitting that they have been "cringing and ducking to avoid" the label. It is not a label. It is the truth. The WAP can expect Albertans to cringe as this traditionalist political party tries to duck and hide from its yester-year discriminatory social policies.
I see the old-boys club of certain disgruntled Calgarians elites, who used to get direct and personal political access to Premier Klein back in the day, are now taking their shots at Premier Stelmach...including the former Premier himself. Shabby! I take my shots on the government too but I try to keep my criticism on policy and politics - not personality.
I was recalling the Klein-Betkowski PC leadership contest back in 1992. There were some elements in the Klein support base who said about Betkowski that "They were not going to be lead by that uppity educated city woman." Some of those same elements are now supporting Smith. I figure there must be some progress being made.
The biggest mistake we made in the Betkowski leadership campaign was to beat Ralph by 1 vote on the first ballot. The Klein forces came out of their self-satisfied shell and kicked our butts on the second ballot, even after every other candidate came to the Betkowski side.
We will have to wait and see if the Stelmach forces respond to the WAP in the same way by energizing and engaging. The reality still is the PC Party and the Stelmach government can choose to lose and even by the time the next election rolls around. If that happens then they will have both collaborated to engineer their mutual demise. November 7 at the PC AGM should give us some early warning signs as to what will emerge.
Danielle Smith's leadership victory and the recent WAP election result will be merely a catalyst for creating or the consciousness for change. She and the WAP are not necessarily going to set the direction or the destination from such change. There are other political forces afoot that may come into play. There may be a push for rebooting Alberta and designing a political agenda and alternative towards a more progressive direction and destination.
As Ralph used to say, "Stay tuned."
Monday, October 19, 2009
Alberta's Political Eyes Now Turn to PC Leadership Confidence Vote
I had a great conversation with Katherine O'Neill of the Globe and Mail yesterday on the Wildrose Alliance Party leadership and the pending Alberta Progressive Conservative Party Annual General Meeting leadership confidence vote for Premier Stelmach coming up November 7th. Here is the link to the story in today's Globe and Mail.
I think the Alberta political media attention will shift now to the PC AGM leadership confidence vote but with the Danielle Smith WAP leadership lurking in the background. The speculation will be rampant but pointless. What is on the minds of the delegates and what do they see and the confidence vote "ballot question" is the real issue.
There is a growing amount of grumbling in the PC rank and file these days. It may be that I attract the griping because I speak out about political and governance concerns on this blog. The big tent for fiscal conservatives and social progressives is wearing thin on both counts. Walking away for $2B in royalties for no good reason other than to appease the Calgary based energy executive suites and at the same time to be calling for the same $2B in program cuts in the coming fiscal year captures the essence of why both elements in the PC Party are dissatisfied.
The Premier's political response to the embarrassing third place finish in the Calgary Glenmore by election was restricted to blaming the results on the bad economy and the rapidly expanded government program spending. That presumption that the Stelmach government is not fiscally right-wing enough ignores the growing lack of confidence in the governance and leadership capacity of the current regime. It also ignores the revenue problem caused by politically motivated giveaways and concessions to the energy sector with no positive economic upside for the provincial treasury and the Premier painting himself in a corner with a hasty announcement about not increasing taxes on his watch.
Now the cost-cutting strategy is to give token claw backs of the massive recent Cabinet pay increases as if that would provide some moral high ground to go to public sector workers to induce them to walk away from legally binding mutually agreed to collective bargaining agreements. The not-for-profit community based service sector agencies doing the government's work in the volatile and vulnerable areas like seniors, children's service and the developmentally disabled are being penalized even more than the union based public sector workers.
Passing up non-renewable resource revenues in the face of market based commodity prices and putting the burden for that giveaway on the middle class and most vulnerable in our society is not good politics and even poorer governance.
Will this message come through loud and clear at the pending confidence vote at the November PC AGM? My betting is not at all. Even with all this crashing down on the shoulders of the provincial government and the downloading of the burden on municipalities, schools, hospitals, universities, community based not-for profit social service agencies, it will all be stifled and not talked about openly at the AGM.
The first rule of old-school politics is to get re-elected and the next election is a long way off in political time. There is a lot of water to go under the political bridge before Premier Stelmach has to face the people. The "people" in the PC party know this. The only thing that could cause Stelmach to face the citizens of Alberta earlier would be a low confidence vote in the party leader and Premier by the party faithful. That would trigger a PC leadership contest and with the party policy of one-membership one-vote process Albertans could destabilize the entire PC party tradition and structure.
The PC party faithful will stay "faithful" on November 7th if not to the leader at least to the PC brand. To do anything else will only hurt the party, the province and destabilize provincial politics by unnecessarily increasing the already considerable instability and uncertainty of being Albertan.
I think the Alberta political media attention will shift now to the PC AGM leadership confidence vote but with the Danielle Smith WAP leadership lurking in the background. The speculation will be rampant but pointless. What is on the minds of the delegates and what do they see and the confidence vote "ballot question" is the real issue.
There is a growing amount of grumbling in the PC rank and file these days. It may be that I attract the griping because I speak out about political and governance concerns on this blog. The big tent for fiscal conservatives and social progressives is wearing thin on both counts. Walking away for $2B in royalties for no good reason other than to appease the Calgary based energy executive suites and at the same time to be calling for the same $2B in program cuts in the coming fiscal year captures the essence of why both elements in the PC Party are dissatisfied.
The Premier's political response to the embarrassing third place finish in the Calgary Glenmore by election was restricted to blaming the results on the bad economy and the rapidly expanded government program spending. That presumption that the Stelmach government is not fiscally right-wing enough ignores the growing lack of confidence in the governance and leadership capacity of the current regime. It also ignores the revenue problem caused by politically motivated giveaways and concessions to the energy sector with no positive economic upside for the provincial treasury and the Premier painting himself in a corner with a hasty announcement about not increasing taxes on his watch.
Now the cost-cutting strategy is to give token claw backs of the massive recent Cabinet pay increases as if that would provide some moral high ground to go to public sector workers to induce them to walk away from legally binding mutually agreed to collective bargaining agreements. The not-for-profit community based service sector agencies doing the government's work in the volatile and vulnerable areas like seniors, children's service and the developmentally disabled are being penalized even more than the union based public sector workers.
Passing up non-renewable resource revenues in the face of market based commodity prices and putting the burden for that giveaway on the middle class and most vulnerable in our society is not good politics and even poorer governance.
Will this message come through loud and clear at the pending confidence vote at the November PC AGM? My betting is not at all. Even with all this crashing down on the shoulders of the provincial government and the downloading of the burden on municipalities, schools, hospitals, universities, community based not-for profit social service agencies, it will all be stifled and not talked about openly at the AGM.
The first rule of old-school politics is to get re-elected and the next election is a long way off in political time. There is a lot of water to go under the political bridge before Premier Stelmach has to face the people. The "people" in the PC party know this. The only thing that could cause Stelmach to face the citizens of Alberta earlier would be a low confidence vote in the party leader and Premier by the party faithful. That would trigger a PC leadership contest and with the party policy of one-membership one-vote process Albertans could destabilize the entire PC party tradition and structure.
The PC party faithful will stay "faithful" on November 7th if not to the leader at least to the PC brand. To do anything else will only hurt the party, the province and destabilize provincial politics by unnecessarily increasing the already considerable instability and uncertainty of being Albertan.
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