The plot thickens on the "issues" between myself, the Hancock guy, and William McBeath, the Morton guy, and the speculation about if Albertans will go progressive or conservative in their choice of the new PC leader and "pro tem" Premier.
Duncan Wojtaszek posts an analysis of sweet reason and gives us great insight on this question. His answer? It is Yes...it could go either way. And he gives a good myth-busting review of history, events and possible trends to show how it could go either way this time.
He invites us to think larger and deeper than the sound bite candidates would wish for us. I think every PC member should read this posting. Take your time. It demands reflection. It is also a wake up call to the the Progressive Conservative Party of Alberta.
In November will we pick a new direction and definition of Alberta? Or will we look for a renewed Lougheed, or a Klein Clone, or a Paul Martin facsimile or a reconditioned Aberhart? If that is all we do I fear we forfeit the future of the province. The new "leader" may well, blow the next election and turn into a Harry Strom and destroy the entire Party as well.
The bottom line...be careful who you elect. Not just now but always.
Thx Duncan.
Tuesday, September 26, 2006
A Swift Kick in the "Rebut" From McBeath
Fellow Blogger Will McBeath’s (Noise From the Right) recent posting gives me a swift kick in the “Rebut.” Is Alberta more Progressive or Conservative and where are we going anyway? His answer: Alberta is on its way to a Conservative Heaven. I presume with a hand basket that is chock full of Alberta-only money.
He gives us real numbers on real election results to prove his thesis. He admits to some issues with his earlier numbers explaining them to be “hyperbole to illustrate my point.” Ah yes lies, damn lies and statistics.
I applaud Will’s analysis and accept its accuracy on faith because I trust him. I don’t need to double check the data. Because, frankly, the data is mere fact! In politics, facts, while interesting are almost entirely irrelevant. In politics it is more about how you frame the issues and how you activate value drivers about what people believe to be important. That makes the difference in how a citizen decides who to trust with his or her vote.
Election results taken out of context are essentially meaningless stats. The rational positivists really believe tomorrow will reflect yesterday and the world is static and people are predictable. Any student of human nature knows just how wrong that is.
So I don’t argue with Will’s data on past election results. I say so what! Does it matter? What difference do the past stats make in today’s reality? Trends are not destiny. I do know that campaigns matter and they do make a difference. For example in 2004 the Liberals convinced the voting public that Harper was “scary” based on comments coming from his ultra-conservative far-right religious supporters. Harper lost. Value drivers, not data made the difference. In the 2006 election Harper engineered a no-confidence vote and convinced those people who made him “scary” to keep quiet during the campaign. They did. This campaign had Gomery in full bloom and the RCMP publicly announcing investigations on an alleged leak about something called Income Trusts. The values drives kick in and the new “non-scary” Harper gets to be PM.
The moral of the story? Campaigns matter. Just ask Harper. Context is king. Kings are made by context. Counting old ballots is not context is just a bunch of old data. Nice work “Noise” in collecting the data - but in reality, it signifies nothing.
He gives us real numbers on real election results to prove his thesis. He admits to some issues with his earlier numbers explaining them to be “hyperbole to illustrate my point.” Ah yes lies, damn lies and statistics.
I applaud Will’s analysis and accept its accuracy on faith because I trust him. I don’t need to double check the data. Because, frankly, the data is mere fact! In politics, facts, while interesting are almost entirely irrelevant. In politics it is more about how you frame the issues and how you activate value drivers about what people believe to be important. That makes the difference in how a citizen decides who to trust with his or her vote.
Election results taken out of context are essentially meaningless stats. The rational positivists really believe tomorrow will reflect yesterday and the world is static and people are predictable. Any student of human nature knows just how wrong that is.
So I don’t argue with Will’s data on past election results. I say so what! Does it matter? What difference do the past stats make in today’s reality? Trends are not destiny. I do know that campaigns matter and they do make a difference. For example in 2004 the Liberals convinced the voting public that Harper was “scary” based on comments coming from his ultra-conservative far-right religious supporters. Harper lost. Value drivers, not data made the difference. In the 2006 election Harper engineered a no-confidence vote and convinced those people who made him “scary” to keep quiet during the campaign. They did. This campaign had Gomery in full bloom and the RCMP publicly announcing investigations on an alleged leak about something called Income Trusts. The values drives kick in and the new “non-scary” Harper gets to be PM.
The moral of the story? Campaigns matter. Just ask Harper. Context is king. Kings are made by context. Counting old ballots is not context is just a bunch of old data. Nice work “Noise” in collecting the data - but in reality, it signifies nothing.
Do as I Say, "Stay in School" - Ralph Klein
The symposium on high school completion “Your Future Starts Here” is a wrap. Some 600 delegates came, some to "admire the problem" and some offered practical ideas on how to solve it. They also got to hear Ralph Klein outline why he used to be a bad role model for the staying in school message. From high school drop out to Premier is not the usual path and not a stress-free outcome in his experience in “the school of hard knocks.”
From a Learning Commission policy target of 90% completion and a track record of only 77% means something is amiss and has to be done. Suggestions ranged from adding more guidance counsellors, improved literacy programs and more librarians in schools. The feds have just announced a $13B surplus and that they are backing out of supporting fed-prov literacy programs. Many other social support programs are being cut by the Harper government as well. So it falls on Alberta to step up - and why not. Education is provincial jurisdiction after all. Check the PC Leadership Candidates websites and see what they say about this issue.
Do you think public education is important? Take some time and let the province know what you think are of our public education system. There is an on-line survey sponsored by Public Interest Alberta at http://www.schoolsurvey.ca/. I took it and think that is a great place to start to get the provincial ball rolling.
From a Learning Commission policy target of 90% completion and a track record of only 77% means something is amiss and has to be done. Suggestions ranged from adding more guidance counsellors, improved literacy programs and more librarians in schools. The feds have just announced a $13B surplus and that they are backing out of supporting fed-prov literacy programs. Many other social support programs are being cut by the Harper government as well. So it falls on Alberta to step up - and why not. Education is provincial jurisdiction after all. Check the PC Leadership Candidates websites and see what they say about this issue.
Do you think public education is important? Take some time and let the province know what you think are of our public education system. There is an on-line survey sponsored by Public Interest Alberta at http://www.schoolsurvey.ca/. I took it and think that is a great place to start to get the provincial ball rolling.
Monday, September 25, 2006
Reality Check for the Norris "Real Plan"
Boy I thought I was being hard on Candidate Norris. Will McBeath's Blog (Noise From the Right) does a point by point “reality check” cum evisceration on Mark’s “Real Plan” policy document. It is worth a read.
Will is a committed Ted Morton guy – right to the bone. He thinks Morton’s ideological brand Republican Conservatives is the way forward for Alberta. I think Ted Morton is the Dick Cheney of Alberta politics.
McBeath is so confident in his view that the rest of us will see the light and go hard right for Dr. Morton that he uses the last federal election results as his proof. Conservatives 28. Liberals 0. Game Set and Match says our man Will. Ted should be a slam dunk.
Alberta PROGRESSIVE Conservatives are not the same as the Stockwell Day brand of Alliance/Reformers cum Republican Conservatives. Let’s look at the last Provincial election for a “Will-like proof.” PROGRESSIVE Conservatives 61. “Real” Conservatives (a.k.a Alliance) 1. Conclusion Ted is dead in the water.
What you are seeing presented by “Noise From the Right” is just that, Noise. But it is clever and tactical “noise” that frames Dr. Morton and a forgone conclusion to be the next Premier of Alberta. It is clever and pure unadulterated rhetorical bunk that is conclusive proof of nothing! You are seeing pure spin and propaganda at work here!
In this leadership selection we are talking about and making choices about the future of our province, its people, its prosperity and the place itself. Are we to be an engaged, nurturing community of fair minded and curious people? Or will we choose to be subject to a strict, disciplined, government that demands we be obedient citizens subject to and under a “greater” power…no not God – but our Republican Conservative Premier - be it Dr. Morton or Dr. Oberg. But I may be just plain wrong about the way the good Doctors would govern. But time will tell, especially if either of them gets to be the chosen one.
I believe in freedoms, particularly freedom of choice, expression and consciousness. I believe the politicians work for me, not the other way around. I vote intentionally and thoughtfully as I grant my consent to be governed. And I will revoke that consent at my will. I will live my life within the law and not be told how to run it by coercion, extortion, intimidation or threats by “the state.” I will keep my freedoms close, hold them dear and protect them aggressively – especially against any arrogant so called “higher” political power or authority.
I am a Progressive Conservative.
Will is a committed Ted Morton guy – right to the bone. He thinks Morton’s ideological brand Republican Conservatives is the way forward for Alberta. I think Ted Morton is the Dick Cheney of Alberta politics.
McBeath is so confident in his view that the rest of us will see the light and go hard right for Dr. Morton that he uses the last federal election results as his proof. Conservatives 28. Liberals 0. Game Set and Match says our man Will. Ted should be a slam dunk.
Alberta PROGRESSIVE Conservatives are not the same as the Stockwell Day brand of Alliance/Reformers cum Republican Conservatives. Let’s look at the last Provincial election for a “Will-like proof.” PROGRESSIVE Conservatives 61. “Real” Conservatives (a.k.a Alliance) 1. Conclusion Ted is dead in the water.
What you are seeing presented by “Noise From the Right” is just that, Noise. But it is clever and tactical “noise” that frames Dr. Morton and a forgone conclusion to be the next Premier of Alberta. It is clever and pure unadulterated rhetorical bunk that is conclusive proof of nothing! You are seeing pure spin and propaganda at work here!
In this leadership selection we are talking about and making choices about the future of our province, its people, its prosperity and the place itself. Are we to be an engaged, nurturing community of fair minded and curious people? Or will we choose to be subject to a strict, disciplined, government that demands we be obedient citizens subject to and under a “greater” power…no not God – but our Republican Conservative Premier - be it Dr. Morton or Dr. Oberg. But I may be just plain wrong about the way the good Doctors would govern. But time will tell, especially if either of them gets to be the chosen one.
I believe in freedoms, particularly freedom of choice, expression and consciousness. I believe the politicians work for me, not the other way around. I vote intentionally and thoughtfully as I grant my consent to be governed. And I will revoke that consent at my will. I will live my life within the law and not be told how to run it by coercion, extortion, intimidation or threats by “the state.” I will keep my freedoms close, hold them dear and protect them aggressively – especially against any arrogant so called “higher” political power or authority.
I am a Progressive Conservative.
Hancock Stakes Out the Environment
The Hancock Campaign had just released his 13 Principles on the Protection and Enhancement of Alberta’s Environment along with an Open Letter Albertans on what he calls his “21st Century Environmental Plan for Alberta.” The stuff is all on his website http://www.davehancock.ca/. For purposes of disclosure – I have had a hand in the development of this policy. You are entitled to know that. His complete and comprehensive detailed policy platform is being released on October 4th.
It’s interesting that no candidate has staked out the environment yet. Hancock seems to be the first into the issue – and with a long term integrated comprehensive approach. He reflects the spirit and intent of Preston Manning’s writings last spring that the economy and the environment are complementary and not adversaries. We can and must see the links as synergistic and not competitive. Manning caused quite a resonant stir amongst Albertans when he made those observations in his op-ed pieces.
The feeling then (and now?) was that the population gets it and wants it to be that way but where has government’s environment political champion been? This policy position needs an effective political leader or at least an effective Cabinet Minister to make it happen? To date the old guard has been more about “Missing and Inaction.”
For example, Hancock says there are a number of significant environment plans in place (like Water for Life) or finally in process (like Integrated Landscape Management and the on again off again Oil Sands cumulative impact consultations) but they have not been implement, funded or advanced by the old government.
I think this issue has real legs. In the last federal election Alberta had the large percentage of Green Party supporters in the country outside Vancouver Island – ‘nuff said. The Greens finished second to Myron Thompson in the Bow Valley area – a distant second to be sure but who would have thunk it - second! The environment has not yet had a credible and balanced Progressive and Conservative politician take up the cause. Now it has. Give it a "boo" and let Hancock know what you think.
It’s interesting that no candidate has staked out the environment yet. Hancock seems to be the first into the issue – and with a long term integrated comprehensive approach. He reflects the spirit and intent of Preston Manning’s writings last spring that the economy and the environment are complementary and not adversaries. We can and must see the links as synergistic and not competitive. Manning caused quite a resonant stir amongst Albertans when he made those observations in his op-ed pieces.
The feeling then (and now?) was that the population gets it and wants it to be that way but where has government’s environment political champion been? This policy position needs an effective political leader or at least an effective Cabinet Minister to make it happen? To date the old guard has been more about “Missing and Inaction.”
For example, Hancock says there are a number of significant environment plans in place (like Water for Life) or finally in process (like Integrated Landscape Management and the on again off again Oil Sands cumulative impact consultations) but they have not been implement, funded or advanced by the old government.
I think this issue has real legs. In the last federal election Alberta had the large percentage of Green Party supporters in the country outside Vancouver Island – ‘nuff said. The Greens finished second to Myron Thompson in the Bow Valley area – a distant second to be sure but who would have thunk it - second! The environment has not yet had a credible and balanced Progressive and Conservative politician take up the cause. Now it has. Give it a "boo" and let Hancock know what you think.
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