Hello gentle reader! The “Case for Hancock” has been running through these postings and exchange of comments for weeks now. I am not about to repeat them. People know where I stand and why on this leadership campaign.
The question is where do you stand on this leadership contest and what do you want for the future of your family? What kind of society do you see Alberta becoming? How does Alberta fit into and relate to Canada and the world? What are the priority issues you want to see your Alberta government deal with? Is a firewall around the province and opening up same sex marriage again you idea of good public policy? Then Morton is you man.
Or are you concerned about the environment, education, health care, responsible growth, quality public service and a better life for you, your family and your fellow man? Then Hancock is the one because he speaks to your values.
Hancock is caught in the same dilemma as Adalai Stevenson was when he sought the Democratic nomination for president in the 1950’s. Myth has it that a news reporter commented to him that “He had the votes from every thinking man and woman in the country.” Stevenson’s reply was, “You may be right, unfortunately I need a majority.”
Too many of the thinking people of Alberta may be simply “sitting this one out.” That would be a mistake – especially if we get a radical right-wing social conservative government for the next two years as a result.
If you stay home and “pass” you will get the kind of government you deserve, even if it is not the kind of government you want.
It is going to be cold tomorrow. So bundle up, show up and vote for Hancock. You will be glad you did because you know you will be doing the right thing.
Friday, November 24, 2006
It is Now in the Hands of Albertans
So the political punditry is all but past and who the next Premier of Alberta is going to be in the hands of the public, if not tomorrow then next Saturday for sure.
Not a great many of the public are going to make this decision by the looks of things. Those political die-hard will show up for sure. Those other citizens who have been able to overcome their philosophical and personal resistances to joining a political party will participate too. We owe all of them a debt of gratitude for taking the time to be part of this process and for ultimately making the decision.
They have seen the opportunity, and the threat, inherent in this party leadership contest and how it can impact the future of Alberta. Many have had to overcome some serious angst in order to becoming a political party member. that has been a barrier to many but the reality of the next PC leader also being the provincial Premier has had an impact on their decision I suspect.
Others who have risen to the occasion by showing real leadership and engagement on policy issues must be acknowledged too. They have become effective activists in promoting causes where they want to affect policy changes. The most successful and effective of these have been those citizens involved in the full range of disability issues and services. Thank you for your superior citizenship.
This process has been open and democratic but not as transparent as it needs to be, especially around disclosure and tactics used for soliciting campaign contributions. It has been too long a campaign in some ways but the extra time has given people, and candidates, more time to identify and understand the issues. Albertans have had the time to get more informed about the character and capabilities of the various candidates.
We are being offered two clear and different visions for Alberta’s future. We have a social progressive agenda within a fiscal conservative overlay that demands value for taxpayer’s dollars. This vision is represented by Hancock and Dinning. Alternatively we have social conservatives coupled with a fiscal attitude that sees government as a necessary evil. They believe more tax cuts, the marketplace and individual initiative is the best way to run a society. This vision is represented by Morton and Oberg.
Alberta is going to see a dramatic change of political direction, if not now, then at the next provincial election for sure. Neither of these two alternative are extensions of the current status quo. Each represents a significant change of direction from the past 5 years of the "cruise-control" Klein government.
The different approaches and the outcome of this leadership campaign is either the change itself, a prelude of the change to come, or if the PC party gets it wrong, about which party forms the next government. No small stakes are at issue here!
Just like no one knows the leadership outcome today, we will have to wait to see what Albertans want their future to be like and what principles and values will drive the direction of their next Alberta. Albertans know we are living in interesting, scary and uncertain times but we have great opportunity and a good reason for a sense of optimism - but some things have to change. Times of change demand wise leadership from politicians with real depth, significant experience and, above all, quality characters of the highest order.
So Alberta – bundle up, show up and vote carefully tomorrow – your future will depend on the choices that are being made. Those choices will be made by you - or by others "for you." Again, no small stakes. It is your choice, your values and your future that is at issue at the ballot box.
Not a great many of the public are going to make this decision by the looks of things. Those political die-hard will show up for sure. Those other citizens who have been able to overcome their philosophical and personal resistances to joining a political party will participate too. We owe all of them a debt of gratitude for taking the time to be part of this process and for ultimately making the decision.
They have seen the opportunity, and the threat, inherent in this party leadership contest and how it can impact the future of Alberta. Many have had to overcome some serious angst in order to becoming a political party member. that has been a barrier to many but the reality of the next PC leader also being the provincial Premier has had an impact on their decision I suspect.
Others who have risen to the occasion by showing real leadership and engagement on policy issues must be acknowledged too. They have become effective activists in promoting causes where they want to affect policy changes. The most successful and effective of these have been those citizens involved in the full range of disability issues and services. Thank you for your superior citizenship.
This process has been open and democratic but not as transparent as it needs to be, especially around disclosure and tactics used for soliciting campaign contributions. It has been too long a campaign in some ways but the extra time has given people, and candidates, more time to identify and understand the issues. Albertans have had the time to get more informed about the character and capabilities of the various candidates.
We are being offered two clear and different visions for Alberta’s future. We have a social progressive agenda within a fiscal conservative overlay that demands value for taxpayer’s dollars. This vision is represented by Hancock and Dinning. Alternatively we have social conservatives coupled with a fiscal attitude that sees government as a necessary evil. They believe more tax cuts, the marketplace and individual initiative is the best way to run a society. This vision is represented by Morton and Oberg.
Alberta is going to see a dramatic change of political direction, if not now, then at the next provincial election for sure. Neither of these two alternative are extensions of the current status quo. Each represents a significant change of direction from the past 5 years of the "cruise-control" Klein government.
The different approaches and the outcome of this leadership campaign is either the change itself, a prelude of the change to come, or if the PC party gets it wrong, about which party forms the next government. No small stakes are at issue here!
Just like no one knows the leadership outcome today, we will have to wait to see what Albertans want their future to be like and what principles and values will drive the direction of their next Alberta. Albertans know we are living in interesting, scary and uncertain times but we have great opportunity and a good reason for a sense of optimism - but some things have to change. Times of change demand wise leadership from politicians with real depth, significant experience and, above all, quality characters of the highest order.
So Alberta – bundle up, show up and vote carefully tomorrow – your future will depend on the choices that are being made. Those choices will be made by you - or by others "for you." Again, no small stakes. It is your choice, your values and your future that is at issue at the ballot box.
Thursday, November 23, 2006
AADAC Funds Allegedly Funneled into a PC Leadership Campaign
The Auditor General report released today also deals with allegations of AADAC funds diverted by a former senior executive of the agency into the hands of "tobacco control lobbyists who were then providing the funds to the campaigns of provincial leadership contenders." (page 13). The AG report says the the executive in question "stated he did not use any of the diverted funds to make political contributions and his record did not show any such contributions" (page 14).
The Auditor General says:
"Accordingly, we considered if funds may have been diverted to a political party, or candidate for political office, in order to enhance career aspirations or other opportunities. We found nothing to support these allegations." (page 13).
Apparently a traditional media outlet is indicating the Auditor General is looking into allegations that some of the money may have been funneled into a yet unnamed Tory Leadership campaign.
Is the AG still looking into this or has he finished his investigation and satisfied that no funds were diverted into a leadership campaign? The latter is what I read in his report.
The status of this matter has to be cleared up immediately because it puts an unfair cloud over all candidates. Is the Auditor General's investigation over funds being diverted into a PC Leadership campaigm completed and they found "nothing to support these allegations" or is it still on-going?
The Auditor General says:
"Accordingly, we considered if funds may have been diverted to a political party, or candidate for political office, in order to enhance career aspirations or other opportunities. We found nothing to support these allegations." (page 13).
Apparently a traditional media outlet is indicating the Auditor General is looking into allegations that some of the money may have been funneled into a yet unnamed Tory Leadership campaign.
Is the AG still looking into this or has he finished his investigation and satisfied that no funds were diverted into a leadership campaign? The latter is what I read in his report.
The status of this matter has to be cleared up immediately because it puts an unfair cloud over all candidates. Is the Auditor General's investigation over funds being diverted into a PC Leadership campaigm completed and they found "nothing to support these allegations" or is it still on-going?
Whether to Vote in Bad Weather Key to Third Place
Leger Marketing Poll of PC party members of record as at November 6th and polled between November 18 and 21 has some telling findings. We all know it has limitations because many campaigns have not turned in their memberships and many that were turned in did not have phone numbers so they were not contacted. The randomness is not in question but there is some self-selection at play all the time and especially here. Like do we know how many calls they had to make to get 801 who were prepared to answer the questions? Were the no-phones from a specific region? It all could have an impact on the results.
That aside, there are some interesting findings and scenarios that could emerge. Long shots with a chance result in big payoffs when they come in. Looks like Dave Hancock is a long shot with a chance with a strong second position showing in Edmonton.
The analysis is later in this posting but the question is will Edmonton deliver for Hancock given his base in the Capital City? Will Edmonton come to realize that with local support that he can make a real difference in the second ballot outcome? Will Edmonton show up for Hancock? If so he could be on the second ballot.
First: It is a two horse race between Dinning and Morton and both are likely to be on the second ballot. Now they have to see how committed their support really is and will they get out the vote in bad weather? It is a momentum game too and Morton has “MO.” The key question now is who is going to be the third man on the next ballot. Here we can say with great confidence that anything is possible.
Secondly Oberg is down and with the news today – he may now be out of the running. Today the Auditor General commenting on a 2004 provincial election campaign contribution from a “wholly owned corporation of Metis Settlements” to Minister Pearl Calahasen, an Oberg supporter. That contribution was, according to the Auditor General, “...contrary to the Elections Finances and Contributions Disclosure Act.”
The AG has referred the matter to the Chief Electoral Officer and I woujld not be surprised if Alberta Justice is looking at it too. This is not about Dr. Oberg directly but Oberg did not need more grief and yet another credibility “incident” to raise questions about his suitability to govern. He will have to comment on this publicly and in the final days of the campaign. Will this cause his soft supporters to stay home, the undecideds to discount and any potential for new growth to evaporate.
Thirdly, who is third? The candidate's regional differences are starting to show up in the Leger poll. Calgary is a two horse town with Dinning at 30% and Morton at 23%. Everyone else is out of it but therre is still an undecided of 28% four day before the first ballot - OUCH!
Outside of Edmonton and Calgary is also a two horse race with Morton at 20% and Stelmach at 18%. Dinning and Oberg are 13% and 12% respectively. Nobody else is in the hunt outside the major cities. The undecided is 27% and if the rural voters dessert Oberg and show up for Stelmach then Ed could be the third man in.
Edmonton is the least undecided at 21% but the most volatile. Arguably also a two horse race with Dinning at 20% and Hancock at 14% but the pack range from 9% for Stelmach, 10% Norris and 11% for each of Oberg and Morton.
This Edmonton showing is encouraging to the Hancock campaign. They have this much Edmonton support and they had not yet turned in their Edmonton memberships. Their supporter base was not polled and they are still a strong second place. If Edmonton show up for Hancock and Oberg’s Edmonton support stays home or goes to Morton, then Hancock could catch and pass Oberg and make the cut for the second ballot. That would be interesting.
Lots of “ifs” and a long shot for sure but this is politics and strange things happen all the time. It may all come down to the “weather” and the “whether.” Bad weather and indifference by people as to whether they feel they make a difference by voting are all at play here.
Showing up for Hancock in Edmonton and showing up in rural Alberta for Stelmach can make a big difference to the end result on December 2nd.
That aside, there are some interesting findings and scenarios that could emerge. Long shots with a chance result in big payoffs when they come in. Looks like Dave Hancock is a long shot with a chance with a strong second position showing in Edmonton.
The analysis is later in this posting but the question is will Edmonton deliver for Hancock given his base in the Capital City? Will Edmonton come to realize that with local support that he can make a real difference in the second ballot outcome? Will Edmonton show up for Hancock? If so he could be on the second ballot.
First: It is a two horse race between Dinning and Morton and both are likely to be on the second ballot. Now they have to see how committed their support really is and will they get out the vote in bad weather? It is a momentum game too and Morton has “MO.” The key question now is who is going to be the third man on the next ballot. Here we can say with great confidence that anything is possible.
Secondly Oberg is down and with the news today – he may now be out of the running. Today the Auditor General commenting on a 2004 provincial election campaign contribution from a “wholly owned corporation of Metis Settlements” to Minister Pearl Calahasen, an Oberg supporter. That contribution was, according to the Auditor General, “...contrary to the Elections Finances and Contributions Disclosure Act.”
The AG has referred the matter to the Chief Electoral Officer and I woujld not be surprised if Alberta Justice is looking at it too. This is not about Dr. Oberg directly but Oberg did not need more grief and yet another credibility “incident” to raise questions about his suitability to govern. He will have to comment on this publicly and in the final days of the campaign. Will this cause his soft supporters to stay home, the undecideds to discount and any potential for new growth to evaporate.
Thirdly, who is third? The candidate's regional differences are starting to show up in the Leger poll. Calgary is a two horse town with Dinning at 30% and Morton at 23%. Everyone else is out of it but therre is still an undecided of 28% four day before the first ballot - OUCH!
Outside of Edmonton and Calgary is also a two horse race with Morton at 20% and Stelmach at 18%. Dinning and Oberg are 13% and 12% respectively. Nobody else is in the hunt outside the major cities. The undecided is 27% and if the rural voters dessert Oberg and show up for Stelmach then Ed could be the third man in.
Edmonton is the least undecided at 21% but the most volatile. Arguably also a two horse race with Dinning at 20% and Hancock at 14% but the pack range from 9% for Stelmach, 10% Norris and 11% for each of Oberg and Morton.
This Edmonton showing is encouraging to the Hancock campaign. They have this much Edmonton support and they had not yet turned in their Edmonton memberships. Their supporter base was not polled and they are still a strong second place. If Edmonton show up for Hancock and Oberg’s Edmonton support stays home or goes to Morton, then Hancock could catch and pass Oberg and make the cut for the second ballot. That would be interesting.
Lots of “ifs” and a long shot for sure but this is politics and strange things happen all the time. It may all come down to the “weather” and the “whether.” Bad weather and indifference by people as to whether they feel they make a difference by voting are all at play here.
Showing up for Hancock in Edmonton and showing up in rural Alberta for Stelmach can make a big difference to the end result on December 2nd.
Win, Place and Show
Leger poll newspaper reports today indicate my earlier information was correct yesterday.
This is all about a second ballot race for third place now. Lots of undecided voters still and lots of memberships have not been turned in by campaigns because there is no need to. There is lots of “plus and minus” machinations still to be played with in any “analysis” of these results.
My guess is in a province of 3.2 million people; my guess fewer than 85,000 will show up in the end to cast select the next Premier for the province. That is political leverage. Too bad it is due to indifference and not design.
Next week will be really interesting.
This is all about a second ballot race for third place now. Lots of undecided voters still and lots of memberships have not been turned in by campaigns because there is no need to. There is lots of “plus and minus” machinations still to be played with in any “analysis” of these results.
My guess is in a province of 3.2 million people; my guess fewer than 85,000 will show up in the end to cast select the next Premier for the province. That is political leverage. Too bad it is due to indifference and not design.
Next week will be really interesting.
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