Leger poll newspaper reports today indicate my earlier information was correct yesterday.
This is all about a second ballot race for third place now. Lots of undecided voters still and lots of memberships have not been turned in by campaigns because there is no need to. There is lots of “plus and minus” machinations still to be played with in any “analysis” of these results.
My guess is in a province of 3.2 million people; my guess fewer than 85,000 will show up in the end to cast select the next Premier for the province. That is political leverage. Too bad it is due to indifference and not design.
Next week will be really interesting.
Places Hancock with about 6%. If he gets this low a number on election day, it may well demonstrate the party is not willing to go that left (at least not in the next while).
ReplyDeleteI see the candidates like this. They fall into 2 groupings
ReplyDeleteSocial Conservatives: Morton, Oberg, Doerksen
Doerksen is emotionally social conservative, Morton is intellectually social conservative and Oberg is pragmatically social conservative.
They see government as a necessary evil and the best way to deal with it and to deliver the stern discipline it lacks is to starve it by more tax cuts and more privatization.
AND:
Progressive Conservatives: Hancock, Stelmach, Dinning, McPherson, Norris
McPherson and Norris are a bit more to the right that the other three but all social progressives and all fiscal conservatives. They believe government must deliver value for taxpayers dollars. They see a positive but limited role for government with a focus on achieving common good outcomes.
The Leger poll today had the candidates well distributed - one of each in the front two, one of each in the bottom two and the rest clustered in the second tier.
Don't think we need to speculate on the results. The race now is for third place. How "Canadian" can you get?
Best to just wait for the judgement of the membership as to results and implications and interpretation.