More good news for Stephane Dion and his recent leadership victory! The recent EKOS Research Poll for LaPresse and the Toronto Star is reconfirming his early traction as the new Liberal leader and as Her Majesty’s Official Opposition.
Dion’s Liberals have 40.1% support, a 10 point bump compared to the 30.2% they had in the January 2006 election. The Cons are at 33.5% compared to 36.3 % they had at the last election. The NDP are down over 7 points to 10.2% and the Greens are up over 3 points to 7.6% today.
The post convention Liberal bump is to be expected given the media coverage these events generate. Will it last? Time will tell. The Cons better start hoping it is just a short attention span bump and not a change of mind and heart shift to the Liberals by Canadians.
The Cons can rest assured in Alberta where they dominate with 59.5% support. The Greens are strong in Quebec all of a sudden with 12.1%, putting them ahead of the NDP and only 6 points behind the Cons. We still have the Alberta Green support with a counterintuitive 7.2% almost a full point ahead of BC. Go figure!
Some of the details are interesting given the approaching election and the pre-Christmas political entry into the “Red Zone” of election preparedness. Last January when Harper formed government 49% said Canada was heading in the right direction with 26% saying the opposite and 25% saying they did not know. Today Harper is seen as on the right track by a consistent 48%. The dramatic change is today only 10% don’t have an opinion and a full 43% think the Government of Canada is headed in the wrong direction. Momentum is pushing up against the Harper Cons.
As for Driving Issues in an election, comparing the pre-January 2006 election period to now we still see the social issues dominate for health and education but it dropped 10 points to 23%. The #2 issue for Canada is still fiscal issues like the economy and debt and taxes now at 18% but that is down 3 points in the year.
The dramatic emerging trend change in the year is on the environment which is #3 priority, but jumping up 9 points to 15% in the past year. The really scary statistic for campaign planners is the startling changes in the vague “Other” issues category now at 18% up from 4% a year ago. Change is in the air.
The Gomery corruption issue is past. Canadians have moved on. Issues of ethics and accountability in a year fell from 15% to 3% saying it was the most important issue to them in deciding who to vote for. This does not take the Liberals out of the penalty box but the outlook for Dion is promising.
The opinions of who “gets it” in certain key policy areas is where the Conservatives have to worry. They dominate on the fiscal side which is the #2 issue with 48% of Canadians trusting them to offer the best solutions. The decision on Income Trusts I think really helped the Conservatives here. The Liberals trailing way back at 23% support on the fiscal agenda. Guess what the Conservatives will start to reinforce and try to make the ballot box question in the forthcoming election.
The #1 and #4 issues being social policy and foreign policy/Afghanistan, the Liberals dominate with 27% and 38% trusting them respectively. I guess “Steve” and “Dubya” being “an item” does not matter anymore to Canadians.
The #3 issue is the environment and it likely has momentum to grow in importance. Only 9% do not have an opinion on which Party they will support to solve environmental issues. Here the Greens win with 35%, followed by the Liberals at 31% and the Conservatives are at a mere 4% support as the guys who “get” the environmental concerns. The NDP have only 13% support and seem to have lost this issue to the Greens and the Liberals.
Based on perceptions Harper is still “The Man” beating Dion by 4 or 5 points on questions of making the best Prime Minister, best vision of the future of Canada, and best understanding of Canadians. What has to chill the blood of the Harper Cons is he has been the Prime Minister for almost a year and Dion is this close to him after only a week on the job as Leader of the Opposition. OUCH! Change is in the air.
Wednesday, December 13, 2006
Premier Stelmach Makes His "Moves"
So the speculation and rumours over the Stelmach Cabinet size and its make up is entering fever pitch. The reality that Alberta under Premier Ed Stelmach is about to write a new and different chapter for our future should not be lost.
The new Stelmach government structure has just been released. With 18 Ministries and Four Standing Policy Committees we see can anticipate more discipline and control as well as improved planning as Premier Stelmach moves towards achieving his “New Alberta Agenda.”
The New Alberta Agenda is designed to “govern with integrity, manage growth pressures, improve the quality of life, build a stronger Alberta and provide safe secure communities.” Action item Premier Stelmach has highlighted include increased access to post-secondary education, implementation of a comprehensive workforce strategy, deal with funding needs of municipalities, make progress on the rural development strategy and complete the lad-use framework.
As a first initiative “out of the starting gate” Ed announced his intention to create a housing task force to increase the availability of affordable housing. That is a problem just about everywhere and I expect that Fort McMurray will be particularly pleased to hear this. Good move!
I am looking forward to a reinvigorated and revitalized role for progressive and conservative governance in Alberta under this new leadership.
The next key and critical part of the puzzle will be finding out who will be the people that will make up the new Stelmach Cabinet. That will become known on Friday. The personalities, skills, experiences and characters of those folks will be the most important part of “writing” the new Alberta chapter.
I believe it was Joseph Schumpeter who said: "…the deciding of issues by the electorate is secondary to the election of the men who are to do the deciding." Just another way of saying “be careful who you elect.” In terms of Premier Stelmach, it must be emphasized and adapted to “Be careful who you SELECT.”
The new Stelmach government structure has just been released. With 18 Ministries and Four Standing Policy Committees we see can anticipate more discipline and control as well as improved planning as Premier Stelmach moves towards achieving his “New Alberta Agenda.”
The New Alberta Agenda is designed to “govern with integrity, manage growth pressures, improve the quality of life, build a stronger Alberta and provide safe secure communities.” Action item Premier Stelmach has highlighted include increased access to post-secondary education, implementation of a comprehensive workforce strategy, deal with funding needs of municipalities, make progress on the rural development strategy and complete the lad-use framework.
As a first initiative “out of the starting gate” Ed announced his intention to create a housing task force to increase the availability of affordable housing. That is a problem just about everywhere and I expect that Fort McMurray will be particularly pleased to hear this. Good move!
I am looking forward to a reinvigorated and revitalized role for progressive and conservative governance in Alberta under this new leadership.
The next key and critical part of the puzzle will be finding out who will be the people that will make up the new Stelmach Cabinet. That will become known on Friday. The personalities, skills, experiences and characters of those folks will be the most important part of “writing” the new Alberta chapter.
I believe it was Joseph Schumpeter who said: "…the deciding of issues by the electorate is secondary to the election of the men who are to do the deciding." Just another way of saying “be careful who you elect.” In terms of Premier Stelmach, it must be emphasized and adapted to “Be careful who you SELECT.”
Tuesday, December 12, 2006
"The Truth?"
Readers of this Blog know I will sometimes rant about the misleading framing of issues intended to activate values and lead to unsupported conclusions. Sometimes this is done intentionally, naively or inadvertently but it happens and citizens have to be aware of it.
We need to know the values and principles we apply individually and as a society to political and public policy issues. These are very important but get short shrift in the marketing model of modern political campaigns.
Props to Les Brost who gave me the heads up to a fascinating (and even funny if it were not so serious) example of just how this can work. Enjoy at first, because it is clever. I am still thinking about the implications of how this can happen and what it means.
Here is the link:
We need to know the values and principles we apply individually and as a society to political and public policy issues. These are very important but get short shrift in the marketing model of modern political campaigns.
Props to Les Brost who gave me the heads up to a fascinating (and even funny if it were not so serious) example of just how this can work. Enjoy at first, because it is clever. I am still thinking about the implications of how this can happen and what it means.
Here is the link:
Dion Gets Some Benefit of the Doubt
The Ipsos-Reid post convention poll shows Dion has some traction in Ontario and Quebec. Just as one swallow does not make a summer, one poll does not make a trend.
Dion is getting some benefit of the doubt in BC and Alberta with a 41/35 and 39/33 favourable over unfavourable rating respectively. The sleeper statistic is the “Don’t know enough about the person” shows 24% in BC and Ontario and 27% in Alberta. He obviously needs to spend some “quality” time in the west between now and the next election.
The Liberals are not out of the penalty box yet either, nor should they be. When asked if the Liberals “deserve to be elected and govern under the leadership of Stephane Dion nationally 44% agreed and 50% disagreed. In BC 56% disagreed and 66% said no in Alberta. Ontario and Quebec were ambivalent at about 50/50 but the Maritimes liked him with 54% agreeing the Liberals with Dion deserved to govern and only 37% disagreeing.
The next federal election will be a contest between two leaders who have two different visions, two different ideologies and different perspectives on the role of government. It will be less about “charisma and style” more about policy and ideas. Wahtever ballot box issue emerges it will be influenced by Canadian's perceptions about the characters and trustworthiness of the two major party leaders.
The sub-plot to the personality/character drama will be the environment. That will be the platform where the battle is staged and fought the hardest. It will vary in content and context in different regions across the country but it will be pervasive.
The environment as a major decision driving political issue will give the Greens a credibility boost and may actually generate some seats this time. They will get a chance to set the agenda and the tone of the debate. They will have to be able to embrace the integration of a growing economy and enhanced environmental outcomes to be successful. Picking one over the other will set them back, and maybe way back.
This next federal campaign may relegate the NDP to the sidelines. They have to find a resonating issue that claims and frames their place in the race. It they fail, this election will be the begininng of the Greens as the new Third Party. The NDP risk in this election is that they devolve into a rump and becoming a relic as a federal political force.
The unofficial campaign has started and the race for the hearts and minds of Canadians is definitely on. Everything out of Ottawa will be done and designed through an election lens by all the political players all the time. In the short term expect more heat then light.
Harper picked his spot for the last election. He does not have that luxury this time. He may still try to engineer his defeat with timing and an issue that will be more propitious and firm up his base. He can do this by having the Bloc “force” him into an earlier election over our role in Afghanistan.
Alberta politicos’ fresh off the PC leadership contest can catch their breath over Christmas but we better be ready to roll early in the New Year.
Dion is getting some benefit of the doubt in BC and Alberta with a 41/35 and 39/33 favourable over unfavourable rating respectively. The sleeper statistic is the “Don’t know enough about the person” shows 24% in BC and Ontario and 27% in Alberta. He obviously needs to spend some “quality” time in the west between now and the next election.
The Liberals are not out of the penalty box yet either, nor should they be. When asked if the Liberals “deserve to be elected and govern under the leadership of Stephane Dion nationally 44% agreed and 50% disagreed. In BC 56% disagreed and 66% said no in Alberta. Ontario and Quebec were ambivalent at about 50/50 but the Maritimes liked him with 54% agreeing the Liberals with Dion deserved to govern and only 37% disagreeing.
The next federal election will be a contest between two leaders who have two different visions, two different ideologies and different perspectives on the role of government. It will be less about “charisma and style” more about policy and ideas. Wahtever ballot box issue emerges it will be influenced by Canadian's perceptions about the characters and trustworthiness of the two major party leaders.
The sub-plot to the personality/character drama will be the environment. That will be the platform where the battle is staged and fought the hardest. It will vary in content and context in different regions across the country but it will be pervasive.
The environment as a major decision driving political issue will give the Greens a credibility boost and may actually generate some seats this time. They will get a chance to set the agenda and the tone of the debate. They will have to be able to embrace the integration of a growing economy and enhanced environmental outcomes to be successful. Picking one over the other will set them back, and maybe way back.
This next federal campaign may relegate the NDP to the sidelines. They have to find a resonating issue that claims and frames their place in the race. It they fail, this election will be the begininng of the Greens as the new Third Party. The NDP risk in this election is that they devolve into a rump and becoming a relic as a federal political force.
The unofficial campaign has started and the race for the hearts and minds of Canadians is definitely on. Everything out of Ottawa will be done and designed through an election lens by all the political players all the time. In the short term expect more heat then light.
Harper picked his spot for the last election. He does not have that luxury this time. He may still try to engineer his defeat with timing and an issue that will be more propitious and firm up his base. He can do this by having the Bloc “force” him into an earlier election over our role in Afghanistan.
Alberta politicos’ fresh off the PC leadership contest can catch their breath over Christmas but we better be ready to roll early in the New Year.
Sunday, December 10, 2006
Alberta's Times Are A Changin'
The Calgary Sun still does not get what happened and the new the way Alberta will be governed as a result of the Stelmach win. They think Oberg was a key to the win, in no small part because he is a southerner and they do not perceive the sense and sensibilities of the rest of Alberta. As the Paul Simon song goes, so goes the Calgary Sun, "...a man still hears what he wants to hear and disgrards the rest."
Oberg had a hand in the Stelmach win for sure but not much real impact on the end result as any objective analyses will show. He delivered his own constituency, which is more than his Wood Buffalo endorsee Boutilier did. Hung Pham, Oberg’s other big vote generating and significant endorsee with his large block of Vietnamese voters, all moved with Pham to Morton and Calgary went total Dinning as a result. So much for an Oberg significant influence impacting the final outcome.
The real difference in the leadership result was the central and northern rural shift and the real voter growth caused by the Stelmach campaign itself. This was aided and abetted by Edmonton showing up and focusing on Stelmach over Dinning based on Hancock delivering Edmonton to Stelmach. Hancock was able at transferring his campaign operations and volunteer team and the rest of his votes throughout Alberta to Stelmach as well.
Hancock was the first to support Stelmach on the first Saturday vote and also promoted #2 votes for Stelmach throughout the campaign. Hancock started the traction and momentum to Stelmach in Edmonton and area.
Oberg was a delayed Stelmach “supporter” but took a few DAYS to actually back him on the second ballot. Norris was even slower to endorse Stelmach and both I expect bled lots of #2 votes to Morton, for different reasons. In the end result would still be the same and the Calgary media are oblivious to this reality.
The last 14 years in Alberta have been Calgary centric with a rural support based on Ralph Klein’s celebrated support in both spheres. It is evidenced by virtually every candidate having an appeasement policy platform for Edmonton as the Capital City. That has all changed now and the Calgary Compact has to understand how they fit into the new Alberta reality. It will not be difficult because Stelmach is an inclusive kind of guy, not like some other potential leadership candidates would have been very ego-centric leaders.
Stelmach is a rural guy and he won the leadership with the rural vote and with the help of Hancock delivering Edmonton. That is a really different reality than the Calgary media allows themselves to accept. As well Stelmach has the ability to explain the complexity of all of modern life in all of rural Alberta to the urban Albertans. This changing rural reality now includes the forestry and oil sands north and farming in cental areas as well as the ranching and dry land farming in the south. It is vital that Alberta's city-folk, including the Calgary Compact, understand and embrace this rural reality, and they can, if they are prepared to listen.
The Alberta agenda under Klein has been so dominated by what has come to be known as the Calgary Compact, throughout the rest of Alberta. The dramatic Dinning loss and the moribund Morton campaign in the second week underscored the growing animus that has developed toward Calgary. The image of a self-centred dominance of governance control and agenda influence in Alberta was in need of change and that came to be reflected in the results.
There is a change in leadership now. That changes how things will get done, decided and delivered. Calgary still figures into this but if this Calgary Sun piece is any indication that paper has some things to figure out too. This is not going to be a punishing shift. Everyone will be included and considered and balanced for the greater good, because that is Stelmach’s style. But the Calgary Compact is no longer the dominant force it once was that could presume to speak for all of Alberta.
Alberta is, all of a sudden, more interesting, complex, diverse and an inclusive society. It will be good for everyone in the end…including Calgary…but this Calgary Sun story shows they have a ways to go yet before they figure out what really happened with this change of political leadership on December 2, 2006.
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