Stelmach Boots Boutilier Out of Caucus

So Boutilier was bounced out of caucus by the Premier. Quel surprise! What are we as citizens to read into all of this? What is the real motivation behind this move by the Premier?

Is it an internal party and caucus matter only? Is it a bigger issue about representative democracy versus leadership dominated politics? Is it about being a unified team (aka message mouthing sheep) as a governing party apparatus? Is it personal to Boutilier, since he has a very checkered political record and has not a very effective Cabinet level politician anyway. Could it be the last straw about Boutilier that goes all the way back to his questionable intervention while serving as Minister of the Environment and his ill-advised direct testimony "as an MLA" in a regulatory hearing on a Suncor oilsand project? Could it be because he supported Oberg in the leadership? Could it be all those thing...and more?

I'm betting all of that and more is behind Premier Stelmach last straw decision with the political future of Guy Boutilier as a Progressive Conservative. I expect Boutilier will be courted by the Wildrose Alliance and his Independent status will not last too long as he seek revenge by sitting as a WRAP MLA. Boutilier was one of the few caucus members to support "Ralph can't fire me because I know where the skeletons are buried" Lyle Oberg in his leadership bid for the Progressive Conservative Party.

Oberg you will remember besmirched the entire PC caucus with those comments. In a stroke of political theatrical brilliance Klein had the PC caucus expel Oberg from their ranks. Klein stayed "above the fray" and rightly so because Oberg's skeleton remarks insulted every other PC MLA in the caucus. Boutilier has only targeted the Minister of Health and since Stelmach made that appointment, the Boutilier challenge is directly at the Premier too. Stelmach picked up Guy's gauntlet and was a one-man bomb disposal crew as he personally dumped Guy from the PC caucus.

As for Guy, he got was was coming to him. It was incumbent on the Premier to fire him under the circumstances. I am all for more open debate and public discussion by governing MLAs on public policy but Boutilier was over the line and was asking for the obvious political consequences. It is entirely appropriate for an MLA to push politically for your constituency needs but it is about time, place and technique.

The timing tone and content of Boutilier's criticism of the Minister of Health and the personalization of his media comments, like accusing the Minister of "gibberish", went over the line. Stelmach has no choice but to boot him. Boutilier wants to talk to caucus who he implies are his "accusers." That was a request appropriately denied by Stelmach. The Premier is Boutilier's accuser and Stelmach is rightly in his rights as Boutiler's political nemesis. Stelmach has spoken on the issue of Boutilier's future with the PC caucus with great clarity. There is none! Move on!

Boutilier is no hero, nor is he an innocent victim, nor is he a martyr in this medieval morality play of partisan politics. He is merely a guy who doesn't get it and is quite frankly very late into the game of constituency representative democracy. For years he fiddled and frittered while his constituency, Wood Buffalo and particularly Fort McMurray, burned with growth pressures, infrastructure shortfalls and enormous safety and social crisis.

There are no winner is this embarrassment for all ofus who are of a PC persuasion - from the Premier down to mere members like myself. There are lots of loser however. The good folks of the Regional Municipality of Wood Buffalo still have serious social, growth, infrastructure, safety and capacity problems. Now they have nobody in the critical government caucus meetings to keep them up keep up to date on what is really happening that impacts them. They are the big losers in all of this. Their continuing efforts to respond to these enormous challenges for their unique and hard pressed community are caught hard in these recessionary times. We now have many more Alberta communities facing challenges just like Fort McMurray. But that does not solve the problem nor fix the consequences of the systemic neglect inherent in the Fort McMurray reality of over two decades of gold rush growth in the oil sands.

Stelmach has done the only thing the partisan political circumstances allow him to do. He had to turf Boutilier, and for so many reasons. In the hothouse of partisan politics it was a decision that is totally justified. This result is more attributed to Boutilier's doing than Stelmach's. It is not a situation that enables a more enlightened discussion about presenting a more open and representative democracy. It is all about asserting leaderhisp in a climate that is all about raw power in politics. Guy played his hand and was trumped by ht ePremier. That trick is over but the game goes on. Guy, however, is no longer at the table and will no longer be dealt any political cards by the Stelmach government.

As for a better governance model, we have nothing to learn or applaud from the travesty of these recent events. It is time for citizens to act like owners of the oil sands, the water, the land, the air and the democracy that makes up Alberta. It is too serious a situation to leave to petty politics and partisan infighting...regardless of your political persuasion. Without a re-engagement in politics by Albertan these events will rule, become the norm and everyone loses. Please tell me citizens of Alberta that your sense of being Albertan and you sense of shared and personal responsibility for this place is greater than indicated by these offensive events.

I hope the lessons for Albertans is such that they will re-engage in the political culture of their province. Politics stinks because you and I have abdicated our shared responsibility and have allowed it to rot.

Chickens Come Home to Roost

This is a week of facing the music and the consequences of past choices and bad behaviours for some pretty high profile folks.

On the criminal front the convicted serial killer and pig farmer William Picton will be sentenced this week. The convicted fraudster and British Lord pinning to be Canadian again will be sentenced today

On the political front the Commons Ethics Committee has heard from Karlheinz Schreiber, aka the Artful Dodger. Now we are anticipating the testimony from Brian Mulroney, a former Prime Minister, aka The Eloquent Liar.

In Alberta the “colourful” Dr Lyle Oberg is reported to be announcing his “retirement” from politics today. Dr. Oberg was adept at sitting on political powder kegs and giving off sparks. Stelmach has run out of patience with the irrepressible Dr. Oberg. It looks like he is about to politically implode instead of explode as he goes out with a whimper and not much of a bang.

In theses examples we have some proof that the systems will actually work effectively on occasion.

Is Dr Oberg Really Reconsidered and Perhaps is NOT Running for Re-election?

I hope Rick Bell of the Calgary Sun is right that Dr. Lyle Oberg has decided not to run in the next election. He has been running his own political and policy agenda for way too long and he has damaged the PC brand in so many ways...not to mention Premier Stelmach.

Being kicked out of caucus by the caucus itself would have been enough of a message for a mere mortal. But because Oberg felt he was somehow above the rest. By recklessly insinuating the rest of them were hiding "skeletons" without any substantiation was the last straw for me.

Running for the leadership after that was little more than hubris. Undertaking to disclose his campaign contributors and still not doing so after full year has elapsed doesn’t add to his credibility or to his suitability for public service.

I give Dr. Oberg credit for one thing. He picked a damn good independent expert panel to review the royalty regime. The mandate was too narrow but the people were great. The Premier quickly took over control of the royalty file and put Oberg on the shelf.

Good thing too because at the end of the day Oberg couldn’t even leave that matter well enough alone and his inappropriate comments cast a doubt over the royalty review implementation. By Oberg saying there would be backroom tweaking of the deal between government and industry has put Stelmach's credibility back a step - or two. That was just as polls were showing the citizens of Alberta were starting to trust and respect him. I can't believe that this undermining of the Premier was not entirely intentional by Dr. Oberg.

Stelmach appointing Dr. Oberg to his Cabinet was an obvious act of "keeping your enemies closer." I hope Rick Bell is right. It is time to cut Dr. Oberg loose Mr. Premier, and while you at it take a second look at his ally Guy Boutilier. He is the Lyle Oberg Mini-Me and has also proven time and time again that he is not adequate for your Cabinet. He should be told that now and then let him decide if he wants to pack it in now too.

One of the criticisms I have had of Premier Stelmach’s office is the lack of a son-of-bitch in their ranks. Klein had Rod Love and Peter Elzinga…different styles but both were very effective at delivering bad news to MLAs and Cabinet Ministers when needed. If Oberg goes, I may have to re-evaluate my assessment of Stelmach’s crew in that regard. If Oberg goes someone in his office would have taken this bull by the horns.

PC Party Should Learn From the Chandler Experience and Fix Its Nomination and Leadership Process

The right decision was made by the PC Party Executive Committee on Mr. Chandler’s suitability for candidacy in the Progressive Conservative Party of Alberta. The matter is not over. Beyond Mr. Chandler’s indications he may sue the Party for his nomination costs which he says are $127,000.00, the PC Party needs to revisit its nomination and leadership selection processes.

The PC Party, and other political parties too I expect, need to review their nomination process in the light of expectations of accountability, transparency and fairness. Premier Stelmach promised the Party would review and fix the leadership process. Let’s kill two birds and deal with the nomination process at the same time.

Let’s learn from the Chandler experience and do some Constitutional updating. First fairness. If the Leader or the Party Executive has reservations about a candidate pursuing nomination perhaps we need to take a page from the federal CPCs and have a questionnaire and statutory declaration completed by each candidate before they are eligible to run. We can confidentially get a sense of their background and skeletons, if any, and judge their suitability up front. We should not have to rely on Dr. Oberg for this information on skeletons. A suitability test and a decision could be made without embarrassing anyone.

Second, we need full disclosure of donors and perhaps limits on nomination campaign spending to level the playing field and for transparency. If Mr. Chandler spent $127,000.00 for about 950 votes, how did he spend it? Did he buy every supporter dinner in a nice restaurant? For that money? He could have.

Who ponied up $127,000 in the first place? Spending that kind of money at this level of the political process shows that Mr. Chandler is clearly only a social conservative...he is no fiscal conservative, that is for sure. Can you imagine how he might spend of our tax money if he were in government? We need to clean this matter up in the leadership process too. We have been waiting about a year and still don't know who supported Do. Oberg's leadership despite his promise to disclose donors. Dr. Morton said he will not disclose his leadership campaign donors and under the current Party rules - he is entitled to that entitlement. Not good enough.

We have some fixin’ to do in the PC Party around our nomination and leadership processes. This is up to the Party not the leader to undertake this job. Let’s get at it.

Stelmach's First Year as Alberta's Premier

Premier Stelmach has had a busy first year as Premier. He had a shaky start. He seems to be getting his legs firmly underneath him now and is well on his way to delivering on most of his Leadership campaign initiatives. Some accuse him of being a ditherer but the events and actions over the last year and the recent accelerating pace of politics in Alberta proves otherwise.

Lots more in the hopper too as this session winds down and the new budget get finalized and the platform planks for the forthcoming election get framed. There are only 4 candidates yet to be nominated for the PC Party and that has gone well too…especially in terms of the recent rejection of Mr. Chandler.

It is nice to see the positive bounce for him in the recent poll in the post royalty review period. It is worth noting the Taft Liberals also got a positive bounce in the same poll.

Now Stelmach has to get Oberg to take speech lessons from Marcel Marceau and get him to stop talking and sabotaging the policy development and deployent process on royalties.

Any meetings with Energy and the industry better be in public or held off until the Lobbyists Act is proclaimed with the regulations so we can be assured there is no closed door dealings between government official, politicians and the energy sector.

Albertans as the Owners of the resource will want to know every thing that is being said and to understand the significance of all of the discussions and the implications.

Oberg Discloses Alberta's Surplus - But Still Not His PC Leadership Campaign Donors - What (and who) Gives?

It is a good thing Dr. Oberg is providing an open and transparent declaration of the Alberta Surplus situation in his quarterly update. So we are into the $4B level of projected surplus now and yes there are some reasons for concern looking out and we need to be better at planning for a slower growth in our Alberta.

That said, I wonder when Dr. Oberg is going to release his PC Leadership campaign donor list? He promised he would and did I miss it? On December 2 it will be one year since the PC leadership was decided and still no disclosure from Dr. O.

He has the discipline to get quarterly updates done on surpluses, surely he can give us a simply list of his campaign donors and the amounts contributed before a year is out.

How can Dr. Oberg justify this failure, refusal or neglect to release his leadership campaign donor list when he promised that he would? Not good enough Dr. O. Not nearly a good enough. Dr. Oberg should be setting an example of open, accountable and transparent government given his Cabinet position!

Premier Stelmach Shows What Good Socially Progressive and Fiscally Conservative Government is All About This Week.

This has been a good week for Albertans and yours truly.

Tobacco Reduction Act Passes:
Our government has moved decisively on third reading of Bill 45 to prohibit smoking in public and work places. This will improve the quality of life, save lives and tax money form tobacco related disease over time. I have been working professionally with the coalition organized to get this legislation passed. Congratulations to Dave Hancock, Alberta’s Minister of Health and Wellness for this great political and policy accomplishment.

Public Good Exemption in Lobbyists Act for Voluntary Sector:
Next we see our government has moved to exempt public-good non-profit/voluntary organizations from the requirements of the new Lobbyists Act. That means volunteers and staff people in these various community based and charitable organizations do not have to worry about what they say to whom about what in the government when it comes to their good works.

This was the position expressed by the Muttart Foundation and Volunteer Alberta’s brief to the government on the Lobbyists Act. I wrote the Volunteer Alberta brief pointing out the proposed legislation would cause a chill in the volunteer community because it was so harsh and inappropriately drafted. This new Public-Good Exemption amendment to Bill 1, the Lobbyists was also proposed by Dave Hancock and will undoubtedly pass in this session. Congratulations once again.

Teachers Unfunded Pension Liability Issue Finally Resolved:

Now today Premier Stelmach resolves the final debt obligation of the province, the unfunded pension liability for Alberta teachers. This has been a perennial problem that has been bungled by the Klein government and Dr. Lyle Oberg in his former capacity as Minister of Learning. This matter has been one of the most unfair and long time outstanding labour issues that Klein and Oberg used as a punishment for a past teachers strike.

Full disclosure, over the past three years, I have worked from time to time on this matter on behalf of the Alberta Teachers Association. I know Dave Hancock has been working on this issue for years behind the scenes too. But the credit for this progressive step in good government and the saving of some $48B in accrued taxpayer costs over time goes to Premier Stelmach and the leadership of the ATA.

It has been a pretty good week for socially progressive and fiscally conservative government everything considered.

Big Money Meeting Behind Closed Doors Today with Deputy Premier

So the National Post reports that some of the large capital investors are meeting behind closed doors with Deputy Premier Stevens today to add to “the-sky-is-falling message that for the energy industry to pay a fair share of taxes and royalties will put Alberta into recession. While the next story in this link shows unemployment in Canada is at a 33 year low.

I am sure there is a need for some confidentiality in these discussion with Deputy Premier Stevens. But as one of our Trustees for our natural resources, I am sure he will fully disclose what his visitors have presented to him by the end of today. Albertan deserve to know and transparency demands it.

The Globe and Mail Report on Business front page below the fold story today is interesting too. The headline is “Wall Street to Alberta: Don’t be so Stupid.” An “influential New York based analyst with Oppenheimer & Co.” is quoted as saying raising taxes on industries that are the “lifeblood of your economy…It’s so stupid – I thought these people were more sophisticated than that.”

Speaking of a lack of sophistication, I wonder if this influential analyst has read the Auditor General’s Report. We were such rubes that we have left $6B of oil and gas royalties alone on the table since 2005. That would have paid for school repairs, teacher’s unfunded pension liabilities and increases staff wages to liveable levels in Alberta’s social services sectors so we would not be endangering lives of disables Albertans.

The “Influential Analyst” says Albertan should attract investor, not repel investors.” Sir, perhaps you have been out of the loop as to the facts in Alberta. We have $140B of investors from all over the world keen to participate in Alberta with a 1% pre-production royalty and a 25% - soon to be 33% production royalty payable on their net profits. Pretty damn attractive I’d say…and based on the amount of money coming in…pretty damn effective too.

I find this other item in the Globe story too. It says this past May the Alberta Finance Minister, Dr. Lyle Oberg “returned to the city (New York) to assure analysts and investors that the new government of Premier Stelmach was …committed to a business-friendly investment climate.” A quote attributed to “one American Canada watcher” who was at the Oberg speech says: “There was never any indication there would be a move like this.”

Strange that Dr. Oberg did not mention this in his May meeting with the money men of New York. The Premier had announced the review on February 16, 2007 and it was to report to Dr. Oberg by August 31, 2007. It actually reported on Sept 18 but that is a quibble. Makes you wonder how far you can trust someone who omits such key information doesn’t it!

Too bad the Canada watcher did not know that this now Alberta Finance Minister was once kicked out of the government Caucus for his “misleading statements” over Klein’s political skeletons. Could the $6B royalty boondoggle Auditor General Dunn discovered have been the “skeleton Oberg was talking about? If so why didn’t he say so?

EUB and Royalty Review Reports Coming - A Defining Week for Stelmach

This is going to be an interesting week in politics in Quebec but in Alberta too. The Quebec by-elections on Monday are getting lots of attention but they are merely that; by-elections. Likely to be lots of noise by signifying not very much as to indicating the future.

Alberta on the other hand has lots going on – most of which will impact or interest the nation. The next EUB spygate report is due for release this coming week and Premier Stelmach will be responding quickly to the findings. This is pretty consequential stuff. The way the EUB has been handling protesters and participants at “public” hearings in at least 2 instances is more aligned with fascism than citizen sovereign democracies. This needs fixing and I will have a specific post on the EUB from the Privacy Commissioner Report on Monday.

The Royalty Review Report is to be ready Tuesday. Originally this was a Stelmach idea that was commissioned by Dr. Oberg and retrieved by Stelmach who has taken back the lead politically on the initiative. Stelmach has said that he would make the report public as soon as he got it. Good move Mr. Premier. We don’t need these kinds of consultation reports being studied by government before public release. We can all study it concurrently and we do not need the government to have a position first. We need this complex stuff to be handled differently...like more openly.

I know the media will look for the typical short sound-bite responses but that is not good enough any more either. This stuff needs to be analyzed and the outcomes need to be designed to achieve identified and agreed to goals. Citizens need to see such significant reports in the first place not at the end of an internal government review process. This is risky in the current superficial political and media culture we live in - but this is the place to start to change that culture.

The Royalty Review Report authors say they are presenting a package of integrated recommendations that should not be cherry picked but taken or rejected as a whole. Makes sense in terms complex issues like royalties. These are not linear incremental issues but highly integrated and interrelated concerns.

Dr. Oberg has said publicly that the government (meaning him???) reserves the right to pick and choose from the various recommendations. This approach will likely lead to a similar result like what happened in the recent Affordable Housing Task Force report. A package of integrated proposals was presented to government to resolve affordable housing. The politicians in charge accepted and rejected various parts of the whole systems approach and the results were confusion and confrontation.

If the government does not like the Royalty Review Report recommendations or they want to put revised limits or refinements on the issues – they should do so - in public - and then send the job back to the review committee to revisit and report again. Do not deconstruct a whole systems set of recommendations based on pure political ideology and think that will lead to an effective policy design outcome.

This will be an interesting week in politics in Quebec and Alberta – both of which will have an impact on the rest of Canada – but in different ways. Lot to talk about this coming week for sure.

Link Byfield Says the Growing Undecided Voters in Alberta is Good for the Wildrose Party

Link Byfield has sent out another call for signatures to help the new Wildrose Party to get political party status. He sees the Cameron Strategies poll last week showing some 37% of Albertans undecided in how they will vote next election as fertile ground for a new, energized far-right political movement. Here is what Link had to say in an e-mail on Friday:

“An astonishing poll this week from Cameron Strategy in Calgary shows that undecided voters are now the largest group in Alberta (37%). The Stelmach Conservatives have dropped to 32%. That's down from 54% in January. Liberals, NDP, Greens and Alliance are all stalled. Highest place are the Liberals, unchanged at 16%. The Alberta Alliance remains at 5%, down from 9% in 2004 election.”

It is actually 30% undecided and 6% who will not vote at all in the polling figures I have seen,but that is a quibble. I wonder if Link remembered this pollster was also an able and key advisor to the Dr. Oberg PC leadership campaign. Speaking of Dr. Oberg, when is he going to release his donor list from the PC leadership campaign – what has it been 9 months? He is the last to do it. Remember Dr. Morton said he never would tell Albertans who bankrolled him.

As for the poll, it does not look good for those of us who believe in the leadership of Ed Stelmach. I have only seen the news release on the poll. I have not seen the questions or the data distribution so it is hard to really comment except in the most general of terms. We all know wording of questions can have an impact on outcomes.

It would be interesting to know how many phone calls in total were made in this poll before they got the 600 participants. Some indications are that as many as 15-20 calls have to be made these days before someone is prepared to take the time to answer pollster. The end result is the group participating is not as random as one might think because people self-select to participate and we can never tell what their motivations are.

We also know how the participants split geographically, a third in each of Edmonton, Calgary and other. We don't know gender, age, education, income breakdowns and if that mix correlates with the representative population characteristics of Alberta. I always like to know that before I rely on the data. Cameron Strategies is very reputable and experienced so I am sure they will soon release all the data and the wording of the questions too.

Regardless of these technicalities, judging by these results, it sure looks like Albertans are disenchanted with politics these days. Stelmach is taking the brunt of this but there is little solace for the Taft Liberals or Mason's NDP, who Link notes are both “stalled.” The Alliance is in free fall too. That and "37%" undecided – maybe the Wildrose Party has some potential to be a force in the next election.

In the mean time the Wildrose Party need signatures to qualify as a political party for the next Alberta election and that is obviously Job 1 for them right now.

The Evolution of Ed Stelmach on a Smoking Ban in Alberta

Last May, the Campaign for a Smoke-Free Alberta submitted a survey to all of the PC leadership candidates regarding various tobacco control measures in Alberta.

In the early days of the leadership campaign, Stelmach initially signaled his resistance to provincial legislation, instead promoting education to reduce tobacco use.

However after several forums, citizen feedback, the strong positions of other candidates and increasing media profile for tobacco legislation, Stelmach submitted his reply to the Smoke-Free Alberta survey on November 1.

In the survey, Stelmach supported a tobacco sales ban in pharmacies and free votes on private members bills regarding smoking and tobacco marketing. He responded “no” to government legislation to make all workplaces completely smoke-free and a ban on powerwalls. He also responded “no” to a tobacco tax increase (which he eventually supported in the recent budget).

In the final week of the leadership campaign, Stelmach sent a letter to Smoke-Free Alberta stating “Let me be perfectly clear in my disapproval of smoking. I don’t smoke and I don’t like it. It has a tremendous cost to society in terms of health care.” He went on to say, “I support the use of preventative health programs to reduce smoking….”

His bottom line is, “I will encourage my caucus to debate further measures to reduce smoking and to support and champion their collective decision” and “I will support my caucus decisions—part of an open and inclusive government”.

It is worth noting that three major supporters of tobacco legislation—Dave Hancock, Lyle Oberg and Mark Norris—all endorsed Ed Stelmach in the final week of the leadership campaign. This likely contributed to Stelmach’s evolving consciousness and changing of heart on the issue. It also reinforces his message to promote “an open and inclusive government”.

This is not a new idea in Alberta. Unfortunately under Premier Klein the idea was killed 4 times during the policy development process, even though polls show that 84% of Albertans support a legislated province wide smoking ban. Banning smoking in public places and workplaces saves lives, saves money, and should even help improve health care access over time if we can all put more of an emphasis on wellness and prevention. Then tobacco related diseases will not be needing so much of our health care system's resources.

The Premier’s support of the tobacco tax increase in his first Budget as Premier is a very good sign that he is willing to “support and champion” his caucus’s decisions on this issue, especially considering that he initially opposed a tax increase in the Smoke-Free Alberta survey. The key here is that it will be a caucus decision in the final analysis. Now Albertan’s who want a wellness in addition to a health agenda have to make sure their MLAs know it.

Citizens have to return to exercising their power in a democracy between elections. This is a good issue to renew ones responsibility of active citizenship in a representative democracy. This legislation needs to be introduced and passed now. It has been far too long in coming.

So take a minute and call your MLA, or e-mail them or better yet, invest some time (and a stamp) and write and snail mail them a personal letter. Let them know why they must join you and support this initiative for a province wide smoking ban in public and workplaces throughout Alberta.

All the MLA contact information is at: http://www.electionsalberta.ab.ca/streetkey/skSearch.cfm

Stelmach, Hancock and Oberg's Fingerprints are All Over the Alberta Budget.

So the Stelmach government has really differentiated itself for the Klein days with this budget. It has strong evidence of immediate responses to well known and identified problems and towards some serious planning. The feedback Stelmach, Oberg and Hancock received during the PC leadership campaign has had an obvious impact on this Budget. The entire set of Budget documents are on line and I encourage you to read them

It is about the past, the present and the future. It has lots of catch up spending with almost a 40% increase in infrastructure funding for the infrastructure deficit and to respond to growth. It also adds 10% to current operational spending to deal with a 5% cost increase due to growth and inflation. It also sets up some longer term planning, a line by line departmental review looking at program efficiency and effectiveness and imposes some in-year discipline, something sadly missing in the Klein years.

The long-view is evident throughout the document including a commitment to find solutions to the various unfunded pension liabilities including the teacher’s pension plan which is one of the most unfair fiscal situations we have in Alberta. Some tinkering has been done in the interim but a major decision to take on the entire unfunded liability has to be taken. It will result in massive savings in the long term if the bullet is bitten now.

New and interesting items are a tax increase on tobacco. The 17% tax hit is the first salvo in a major assault on tobacco use in the province. This is the lowest hanging fruit towards better control health care spending and better health outcomes for Albertans. It is part of the new emphasis on wellness that Hancock will be pushing through the policy making process this session.

Another positive start is the embedding of about an 18% increase in the disability sector. This puts about $11.3B in the base for staffing recruitment and retention. Not enough but a start. Alberta spends some $530B on persons with disabilities these days and this program area will no doubt be seriously scrutinized for efficiency and effectiveness in the up coming Treasury Board review. As well the governance system is open to question too. The recent disbanding of the provincial board that represent the government in this area signals a further review in the regional governance system too.

A new day is dawning with this Budget. Dr. Oberg at a breakfast this morning noted this Budget was very much a Caucus document and involved direct input from MLAs because it was reviewed and designed by the various policy committees. That is more indication of a better sense of good governance changes coming from the Premier’s office.

Oberg noted this morning the next Budgets planning starts today and is already scheduled to be released February 14, 2008. That will be the election budget and we shall see how it differs from yesterday’s very positive document.

Alberta's Budget Looks Like Stelmach is Going "Full Steam Ahead"

It is Budget Day in Alberta. Indications are for record spending om operations and capital and proof the new Stelmach government is going to be big on planning. Albertans are going to be paying a premium for public infrastructure projects given the overheated economy, lack of labour and shortages of materials but the overwhelming needs that are being caused by rapid growth.

Some economists are calling for restraint and delay in such projects. We shall see what Finance Minister Oberg has in mind in how to proceed in a few hours.

I will be at the Legislature this afternoon to read the the documents and collect my thoughts. I will post my preliminary comments on the Budget tomorrow or late tonight.

This is Budget will undoubtedly be a dramatic change of course for the Alberta government and there will be lots to talk about I expect.

A Perfect Image of Harper's Preferred Supreme Court

HARPER'S JUDGES
If a picture is worth a 1000 words, then an inspired political cartoon is worth 10,000 of them. Cartoonist, deAdder's brilliance shows through and he captures the essence of Prime Minister Harper's end game on Judicial Review Committee political meddling. There is a fine line between laughing and weeping but this cartoon made me do both!

THOMSON IN AFGHANISTAN
I posted earlier on Graham Thomson, the Edmonton Journal political columnist going to Afghanistan. His piece today puts what is happening and how difficult it is to have a positive outcome for the Afghan people. Staying the course and keeping our eye on the long run is key to being effective. Thanks Graham for the insights and information. Keep them coming.

THANKS TO LYLE OBERG
Kudos to Alberta's Finance Minister Lyle Oberg on his clarity and context on what equalization is and how it works. The Edmonton Journal Editorial Board and mark Lisac's Insight Into Government both comment on Dr. Oberg's enlightened approach this week. I get pretty hard on Dr. Oberg from time to time, but he has busted a Ralph Klein era myth that equalization is somehow a punishment by Ottawa on Alberta. I have posted on this in the past too.

There are real issues of Alberta's role in confederation we need to deal with. Now Lyle has to sit down with his PC Leadership Campaign supporter, Guy Boutilier, the new Alberta Intergovernmental Affairs Minister, and explain how Alberta fits in Canada in terms of equalization, and perhaps otherwise too. Guy's recent comments show he does not get it yet.

UPDATE: FEB 19: Excellent piece by Robert Roach of the Canada West Foundation in the Edmonton Journal today on equalization.

Hancock Meets Clement; Renner Meets Baird and Boutilier Briefs Stelmach

Interesting developments in the offing on the fed-prov front with a raft of new meetings. The Alberta and Federal Ministers of Environment (Renner and Baird) and Health (Hancock and Clement) Ministers are about to meet. These meetings include provincial Ministers who are not the rookies in Cabinet but the issues are serious and they represent the top two priority issues facing the country. No indication yet as to the agendas will be but given the times and the pressures, they will likely be significant…especially with all the elections coming in the near future.

Interesting that Prime Minister Harper is giving a major speech tomorrow to the Canadian Club in Ottawa. This is just before the Council of the Federation First Minister's conference call on Wednesday. Harper's presentation is being billed as "equivalent to a Throne Speech." You can't tell me that is coincidence. Curious as to what he has to say, especially to the Premiers in this speech. My guess is they are his primary intended audience.

The Council of the Federation meeting scheduled for Feb 7 has been reduced to a conference call due to scheduling problems. Too bad because it would have been interesting to see how new Premier Stelmach would make out on his debut First Ministers meetings. I would be anxious, at many levels, to see how Premier Stelmach would be served by his newly minted Minister of Intergovernmental Affairs Guy (Alberta as the Bad Boy of Confederation) Boutilier. Stelmach has done this Intergovernmental job, and by all accounts was pretty good at it so his expectations of his new Minister will be very high.

Speaking of Minister Boutilier, we see he is about to be seized with a challenge on the aboriginal aspect of his portfolio. The foster child care for aboriginal children have seen Grand Chief Phil Fontaine make demands for better responses to the needs of aboriginal children at risk. Given that the issue is receiving front page coverage, it would not be a surprise if this was a “walk on” agenda item at the First Ministers meeting on Wednesday.

The usual fed-prov posturing can be expected but it will sure be disappointing if all we see is finger pointing. The turmoil caused by a tragic death of a 3 year old boy in Alberta’s foster care guarantee serious media scrutiny on the foster care concerns for aboriginal children. How will Alberta, namely Minister Boutilier, respond? Will Alberta actually engage and work with their Conservative brethren on this issue? The good news is Jim Prentice, the most competent of all the federal Ministers, is on the Canada side of the issue.

Let’s hope we don’t see a classic case of over promising and under delivering that seems dog the Boutilier political approach. For example, looking at his past musing on the twinning of highway 63 to Fort McMurray one has to wonder if his motivation is always just purely political and power plays.

Media reports recently say he was assuring the Fort McMurray folks the road twinning could be done in 3 years. But that was when he was a Cabinet Minister supporting Lyle Oberg, the then Infrastructure Minister, and PC Party leadership bid. Oberg is the same Minister who was turfed from caucus by his colleagues for accusing them of having political skeletons (which he failed to prove) and for using (abusing?) his portfolio to advance his leadership aspirations last spring. Well the reality sets in now that the need for hype has passed and the twinning looks like it is now stretching out to seven years and counting.

Harsh reality and patience are the defining characteristics of the good folks of Wood Buffalo and the city of Fort McMurray in particular. How much long do the citizens of Fort McMurray have to suffer? And at so may levels and in so many ways and in the face of so much growth pressure?

Alberta's Times Are A Changin'

The Calgary Sun still does not get what happened and the new the way Alberta will be governed as a result of the Stelmach win. They think Oberg was a key to the win, in no small part because he is a southerner and they do not perceive the sense and sensibilities of the rest of Alberta. As the Paul Simon song goes, so goes the Calgary Sun, "...a man still hears what he wants to hear and disgrards the rest."

Oberg had a hand in the Stelmach win for sure but not much real impact on the end result as any objective analyses will show. He delivered his own constituency, which is more than his Wood Buffalo endorsee Boutilier did. Hung Pham, Oberg’s other big vote generating and significant endorsee with his large block of Vietnamese voters, all moved with Pham to Morton and Calgary went total Dinning as a result. So much for an Oberg significant influence impacting the final outcome.

The real difference in the leadership result was the central and northern rural shift and the real voter growth caused by the Stelmach campaign itself. This was aided and abetted by Edmonton showing up and focusing on Stelmach over Dinning based on Hancock delivering Edmonton to Stelmach. Hancock was able at transferring his campaign operations and volunteer team and the rest of his votes throughout Alberta to Stelmach as well.

Hancock was the first to support Stelmach on the first Saturday vote and also promoted #2 votes for Stelmach throughout the campaign. Hancock started the traction and momentum to Stelmach in Edmonton and area.

Oberg was a delayed Stelmach “supporter” but took a few DAYS to actually back him on the second ballot. Norris was even slower to endorse Stelmach and both I expect bled lots of #2 votes to Morton, for different reasons. In the end result would still be the same and the Calgary media are oblivious to this reality.

The last 14 years in Alberta have been Calgary centric with a rural support based on Ralph Klein’s celebrated support in both spheres. It is evidenced by virtually every candidate having an appeasement policy platform for Edmonton as the Capital City. That has all changed now and the Calgary Compact has to understand how they fit into the new Alberta reality. It will not be difficult because Stelmach is an inclusive kind of guy, not like some other potential leadership candidates would have been very ego-centric leaders.

Stelmach is a rural guy and he won the leadership with the rural vote and with the help of Hancock delivering Edmonton. That is a really different reality than the Calgary media allows themselves to accept. As well Stelmach has the ability to explain the complexity of all of modern life in all of rural Alberta to the urban Albertans. This changing rural reality now includes the forestry and oil sands north and farming in cental areas as well as the ranching and dry land farming in the south. It is vital that Alberta's city-folk, including the Calgary Compact, understand and embrace this rural reality, and they can, if they are prepared to listen.

The Alberta agenda under Klein has been so dominated by what has come to be known as the Calgary Compact, throughout the rest of Alberta. The dramatic Dinning loss and the moribund Morton campaign in the second week underscored the growing animus that has developed toward Calgary. The image of a self-centred dominance of governance control and agenda influence in Alberta was in need of change and that came to be reflected in the results.

There is a change in leadership now. That changes how things will get done, decided and delivered. Calgary still figures into this but if this Calgary Sun piece is any indication that paper has some things to figure out too. This is not going to be a punishing shift. Everyone will be included and considered and balanced for the greater good, because that is Stelmach’s style. But the Calgary Compact is no longer the dominant force it once was that could presume to speak for all of Alberta.

Alberta is, all of a sudden, more interesting, complex, diverse and an inclusive society. It will be good for everyone in the end…including Calgary…but this Calgary Sun story shows they have a ways to go yet before they figure out what really happened with this change of political leadership on December 2, 2006.

The Road Less Traveled By

Just over two years ago (Nov 8, 2004) I wrote a Guest Column published in the Edmonton Journal in anticipation of the provincial election, entitled “The Providence of Alberta.”

In it I talked about some of Alberta’s accomplishments past and present and offered some ideas for future feats we might want to tackle. I begged the question about our readiness to meet the new complex challenges before us. Did we have the commitment and discipline to realize our full potential? Were we too flush with cash and conceit to truly concern ourselves with the responsibilities we have to each other, the environment and future generations? Were we so busy making money that we are willfully blind to the social and environmental consequences of how we live, work and grow our energy based economy? Those same questions are still relevant today.

The 2004 election campaign results were not a disaster but they were not good either. Albertans were sending a wake up call to the PC Party and the Klein government. The Klein government seemed to not heed the call. It stayed on "cruise control" and went back to throwing money at problems. The party membership had had enough and responded last April 1st, when they forced the current leadership selection campaign.

If we are to believe the polls, only 30% of the PC party “base” members are intending to vote in the selection of their new leader. I hope that proves to be wrong because we need a re-engagement of socially progressive and fiscally conservative people who will “come to the aid of the party.”

We are entering the end of the "regular season" of this campaign with the looming November 25th first ballot. I think it is timely for Albertans to sit back and quietly reflect for a moment on what is really going on in this leadership selection campaign and what they want to emerge out of it at the end of the day. Sure it is a partisan event. But it is more than that. It is a chance for citizens to send a message about the kind of Alberta they want. Fundamental shifts in direction are needed and clear options are before us, given the kind of candidates and the policy options they are offering.

We can shift hard right to a more socially conservative society with the “Holy Trinity” of Morton, Oberg and Doerksen. Or we can move forward with a socially progressive and fiscally conservative “Wholesome Triumvirate” of Hancock, Stelmach and Dinning. The end result of the second ballot on December 2nd will decide the direction our government will be taking for the two years to the next election.

Do we, as a province, want to go hard to the Right or do we decide to move Progressively forward? The new Leader/Premier will be the one who get to define and decide the goals and the new destination for the province too. The outcome of this leadership process significantly impacts all of us in our daily lives...whether you voted or not.

No new Leader/Premier, will be able to govern alone, Stephen Harper notwithstanding. The next Leader/Premier will have to seek out support from like minded candidates to be allies. One of these two groupings of candidates will emerge December 2nd, depending on who we select as our next Leader/Premier. If you, as a citizen, decide to “sit this one out” that means you are prepared to entrust to others to make that decision for you. That is your right but take some time to understand and appreciate the potential consequences of such indifference.

There is one week left in this campaign. Participation in our democratic processes and institutions is dangerously low. Exercising ones right to vote, showing up to be part of the decision and not “siting this one out” is the road less traveled by…and that, my fellow Albertans, can make all the difference.

It is about your values, your choices and your future.

Strategic Voting and What is Best for Alberta

I have come to the conclusion that Jim Dinning has run the best campaign and is a shoe-in for the second ballot. He has the best organization; the most money, the most MLA support, a group of professional campaigners working for him and a network of volunteers throughout the province.

He has campaigned for years and has proven experience and capabilities. He is obviously going to be on the second ballot. That is no surprise. The question now is who are the best candidates to share the second ballot with Jim for the sake of the PC party and the province?

If we want a medieval morality play Morton and Oberg would be on the second ballot with Dinning. The social conservatives would press their boys – the “good Doctors” - to promote the “family values” agenda. That agenda is anti-gay, anti-abortion and a pro-God fearing culture that is tough on crime and big on punishment despite proven ineffectivness. It is a society where the government is the stern father figure that we fear and merely feign respect. It is an agenda that wants to make Albertans as close to being Bush Republicans as they can possibly get us.

I say that the 35% undecided Albertans and soft PC supporters who have joined or intend to join so they can vote in the leadership campaign can forget about voting Jim Dinning – he has the second ballot status in the bag.

I also say they should not forget about Oberg and Morton, especially if they love freedom and choice and respect, and inclusion and diversity. If they value and desire a nurturing caring society with leaders who see themselve, not as sources and forces of power, but as servants of the public good.

To defeat Oberg and Morton and keep them off the second ballot I say vote Stelmach or Hancock on November 25th as the best way to do that.

Imagine the synergy of the talent, experience and skills of Dinning, Hancock and Stelmach as Alberta's three key politicians working together. Imagine how they could help design the preferred future for the province and guide and govern us in ways that will get us there.

I have Hancock as my preference for Premier but at the end of the day I could see the Progressive Conservative party brand survive with any one of Hancock, Stelmach or Dinning as leader and Premier. I could see the province thrive with the combined skills, energy and experience of all three of them working together under the PC political brand, regardless of which one ends up in the Premier’s office.

People have to understand what is at stake here and be prepred to engage. They must show up to elect a Progressive Conservative slate to the second ballot, and not allow, by benign neglect, a fundamentalist republican opposition on to the second ballot.

I do not want a Premier that is a dictatorial bully. I know Dr. Oberg to be just that and have had my opinions confirmed dozens of times by people who also have first hand experiences with him.

Nor do I want a fundamentalist religious agenda as the lens through which Alberta sets its social, economic and environmental policy. I fear that perspective would be the point of view of Dr. Morton because, in the end, he “has to dance with those who brung him.” Prime Minister Mulroney knew that dynamic all too well.

Dining has done it. He is a given to be on the second ballot. Now, if you are concerned about the future of the province and the viability of the PC Party, if you want enlightened government and informed intelligent change then Hancock and Stelmach are the best choices to join Dinning on the second ballot.

I encourage Albertans who are social progressives and fiscal conservatives, and that is the vast majority of us, to show up November 25 and vote for Hancock or Stelmach to be sure they are both on the second ballot with Dinning.

That is the best was to make sure the best man wins. More importantly that makes sure that Alberta wins too. With a choice between Hancock, Stelmach and Dinning on December 2nd, Alberta wins no matter who ends up as Leader/Premier.

This Race is Far From Over - But Who Gets to the Second Ballot?

Ipsos Reid has done an interesting poll on the PC Leadership recently. They have not been asking who you would vote for but rather how favourable or unfavourable is your “impression” of each candidate.

Asking who you will vote for is so changeable and volatile and influenced by extraneous and often meaningless influences. Name recognition and recent media coverage can drive impulse answers and not necessarily reflect actual voting behaviours.

Asking favourable or unfavourable impressions generates more reflective, qualitative and evaluative responses about candidates. Not perfect but more informative of what people are “feeling” about candidates.

Our web based Policy Channel Survey “Send ‘Em a Message” asks for a deeper level of your thought about candidates. We ask how likely is it that you would recommend each candidate to friends and family. Now participants are more invested in their answers because they reflect back on themselves not just the candidates. Not perfect either but we get more than impressions and feelings, we introduced a personal reputation risk element when we ask for candidate recommendations

The comparison in results is difficult to make but here are the findings from each survey. Remember the Policy Channel “Send ‘Em a Message” results are not scientific because it is web based with self selecting participants but not random.

The first number is the Ipsos Reid Very Favourable and Somewhat Favourable aggregate percentages.

The second number is the Policy Channel Somewhat Likely, Very Likely and Extremely Likely to Recommend aggregate percentages.

Dinning: 56% 56%
Hancock 40% 65%
Stelmach 39% 43%

Norris 35% 25%
McPherson 30% 20%

Oberg 44% 17%
Morton 34% 13%
Doerksen 28% 19%

Dinning has the same level based on impressions and the likelihood of recommended to friends and family. Hancock and Stelmach are more highly regarded when one risks personal reputation by making a recommendations to friends and family. All other candidates are not as likely to be viewed as favourably when one has to “invest” or “risk” personal reputation through a candidate recommendation.

When the Ipsos Reid’s “Not Very Favourable” and “Not At All Favourable” impressions are aggregated then Oberg, Doerksen and Morton leave bad impressions with the most people, 38%, 36% and 35% respectively. The “best of a bad lot” winners are still Dinning, Stelmach and Hancock with Norris and McPherson in the middle again.

If Albertans start to think seriously about this campaign and about the characters of the people to whom they should grant their consent to be government then we could see a different outcome. Different at least than the conventional media wisdom and pundit wizardry is now suggesting.

Will that happen? The earlier Ipsos Reid poll said only 30% of current card carrying PC’s intended to vote in this selection process. Scary at so many levels. Nobody really knows what is going to happen. Citizens can show up to vote with $5 and a drivers license and decide on the spot who to support.

There is obviously a real potential a high jacking of this leadership selection process by a well organized special interest group if ordinary citizens do not engage. But that is democracy and we always get the government and governors we deserve. The Progressive Conservative brand is at stake here as well...just as it ought to be in a leadership contest.

Next posting will be on strategic voting and what group of candidates going through to the second ballot will be best for Alberta.

Oberg Should Be Toast - Just Butter Him - Don't Vote For Him

Omigod - Dr. Oberg...pack it in! When the Calgary Sun turns on a right wing conservative candidate it is over. I watched the late September duet on CPAC you did at Link Byfield's Conservative Congress in Calgary with Drs. Oberg and Morton. Morton is the inheritor of the Stockwell Day evangelical political machine that took Preston Manning out of politics.

Ipsos Reid recent poll results ironically shows slightly more Alberta Alliance support for Oberg than for Morton - but the total number of AA types in the poll is small. Dr.Morton passes it all off as a tempest in a teapot. Some tempest! Some teapot!

The Oberg base is not gone just his mentors like Jon Havelock, Lorne Taylor and his advertising agency. they have left him! One would hope he would not have any new support growth and his appeal appears to be diminishing according to the new Ipsos Reid poll.

The "influence and leverage" he had - and used to garner "support" as Minister of Infrastructure and Transportation is eroding rapidly too. The classic case of how he operates and would govern is shown in the demise of the Legislative Grounds project review as reported by Paula Simons today.

Oberg has a news conference in February for the renewal of the legislature precinct. He does this with no budget or or agenda and priority approvals. He does without following any of the safeguarding procedures and policies. He just announces this - just as he has done for pet political projects in other parts of the province. Then he dares the Caucus, Cabinet and Premier to challenge him. Sounds to me like a recipe for an Alberta made Adscam situation.

Caucus tired of covering for Oberg and in March they kicked his butt out of Caucus and out of Cabinet too as a result. He is not the agent of change in this campaign. He is just a guy who prefers doing things in a kind of freelance self-serving way...not the stuff of leadership or the way to be a positive contributor to party politics.

Perhaps it is time for Dr. Oberg to polish up the resume and dust off the Stethoscope.

I wonder if there is a citizens based "skeleton crew" starting up to uncover some facts about Dr. Oberg's past political conduct. It is being done by the far right on Jim Dinning...I would not be surprised if it happened to Oberg too.