Canada - We Have a Horse Race.

Now that the media hype is off the Liberal Leadership contest and the post convention polling “bump” is past. The open question was, and still is to some degree, who is Stephane Dion and what is he all about? The polls showed that he has some benefit of the doubt as a potential leader but there was a significant amount of “Don’t know” like 24% in the post convention days. Those people could go either way over time.

The Cons have been able to garner attention as of late with the MSM coverage of the “pending Cabinet Shuffle” and the Libs have gone a bit quiet at the same time. That said there is a new Decima poll out today in the Toronto Star with some interesting and more realistic results because the field work was done between Christmas and New Years with 1012 participants.

The Cons and Libs are in a “dead heat” according to the headline because the standings are 34% and 31% respectively, which is within the 3.1% margin of error.

The breakdown tables are not yet on the Decima website because the story is the Canadian Press “exclusive.” The reported shifts are important with the Cons at 14% behind the Libs with 27% in Quebec where the Bloc reigns at 41%. Dion is not the pariah to Quebecers the Cons hoped he would be and so much of the MSM predicted.

The Cons at 35% are behind the Libs at 40% in Ontario too. The story notes the rebound of the Cons in the west and speculates they have overcome “the negative fallout” from the broken promise over Income Trusts. That was some of the best policy and political work the Harper Cons have done this year. It took courage and character to do the right thing and besides the markets overall have more that recovered the “Halloween Hit” for the Income Trust decision.

The demographic differences are striking. The Cons are supported by men and rural voters while the Libs are preferred by females and urbanites. Both parties have to broaden their reach and appeal without jeopardizing their base. The credibility of such efforts will be the key. Anyone can make policy announcements that attract the attention of a broader demographic. Can they do it authentically and with credibility? That is the trick.

For some more context, an Ipsos Reid poll last May pegged the Cons at 43% (down 9 points today) Libs at 25% (up 6 points) NDP still steady at 15% the Bloc with 9% (up 1 today) and the Greens at 5% (up 3points today). The sands between the Cons and Libs are shifting as they are between the NDP and the Greens.

Will the Harper shuffle get his team back on the up side or will it give him “a dead cat bounce” like the stock market…a short unsustainable up tick!

James Rajotte for Cabinet!

If there is a Harper Cabinet shuffle in the works, and it looks imminent, I hope the PM adds James Rajotte to his Cabinet. This is a quiet steady and very loyal guy with some real abilities whose praises are too often left unsung.

Having a Minister actually from Edmonton will bolster Harper’s support in this city in the pending election too. An Ambrose, Bernier shuffle would leave the Industry portfolio open for a man of Rajotte’s calibre.

Prentice is already ensconced deeply in the day to day details of the operations of the government and has some real passion for the work he has started in the Indian Affairs portfolio. He needs a move like a hole in the head. Bernier in Environment would make a lot of sense and Quebec would sure notice. The Cons needs to elevate their game in the environment, especially in Quebec.

The Van Loon bench warming in Intergovernmental Affairs due to the Michael Chong resignation over the Quebec Nation tactic could come to an end easily and no one would notice. The relative merits between and Rajotte and a Van Loon in the Cabinet weigh heavily in favour of the former on talent, experience and loyalty to the Leader.

I’m pulling for James!

Garth Turner and Michael Chong - Men of Principle in Politics

To some politics is a blood sport. It is rough and tumble and too often very hurtful and unduly personal a la Belinda Stronach.

To others, it is how you respond to slights and matters of principle. Take Michael Chong who resigned the Harper Cabinet over the Quebec Nation. He was, after all, Harper's Minister of Intergovernmental Affairs and he was not consulted by the Prime Minister before it was announced as Harper government policy.

Slighted? For sure he was. But that something one can deal with and get over. He resigned on a much more significnat principle because he fundamentally disagreed with the Harper concept of Quebec as a "nation." At Chong's new conference announcing his resignation before the Commons vote he said:

“I believe in this great country of ours, and I believe in one nation undivided, called Canada….This is a fundamental principle for me, and not something I can, or will, compromise -- not now, not ever. While I'm loyal to my party and to my leader, my first loyalty is to my country."

We need more politicians of principle and character like Mr. Chong. He is a perfect example of just how damaging centralizing power at PMO can be. He is an exemplar of why we elect authentic people of character and competence...at least on occasion.

Garth Turner did not quit the Harper government. He was ousted from the Conservative Caucus and stripped of his party membership and forbidden to run as a CPC candidate. He also voted against the Harper Quebec nation motion but that was not all he was being punished for, at least for far as we have been led to believe.

Garth Turner has posted some very personal commentary on his past year as an MP in his Blog. It also shows the character and conviction of an individual politician. Here is another independent, intelligent thinker who has a real respect for representative democracy. He clearly understands the import and impact of when citizens elected him they were granting Turner their individual and aggregated consent to be governed. Those were foundational precepts of the breakway Reform and Alliance Parties and are now ignored as CPC political power gets centralized in the Harper PMO.

Turner has vowed to run again. Not in any spirit of spite or revenge. He has higher reasons. Visit his Blog and see what he has to say and let him (and me) know what you think of his comments. He is worthy of respect and support, especially for his integrity.

Dion Sings!

Thx to Steve Janke

For this bit of comic relief. Who says Dion lacks charisma? With the help of YouTube, bit of imagination and some ragged editing, he could be a hit.

Happy New Year and Thank You!

The end of 2006 is just around the corner. I want to thank all the over 13,000 unique visitors who have visited and participated in this Blog since I started it on July 23.

I am enjoying the vitality of the conversations and am just starting to see the power and importance of this new communications medium.

I got involved at the urging of some other younger Bloggers around the PC leadership in Alberta. I intend to keep posting on politics and public policy. I also expect to expand the scope of this Blog into some specific area of key interest, including the tricky part of balancing a vibrant economy with environmental enhancement, not mere sustainability. Participatory, informed citizenship is another area of interest I will start to explore and comment on in the New Year too.

We will be doing much more collaboration with Policy Channel (www.policychannel.com) next year as well. There will be more links to more timely and informative conversations with experts and advocates in a range of public policy issues.

I will try to be provocative and fair and open to all comers and commentators – within the bounds of good taste and the law. I have only had to delete one comment since I started this journey and that was for reasons of legality.

So thanks for visiting, thanks for reading and I hope you keep coming back and telling your friends, family, colleagues and associates about this Blog. The more people who participate in a democracy, the wiser the “crowd” becomes and the better the system works.

Happy New Year to you and yours.

Ken Chapman