$700B Bailout! Is It A Deal or No Deal?

The bubble has burst on the "brain trust" that was the American financial sector. This is the biggest government bailout in history. Deal or No Deal is the question and this bailout is not a slam dunk yet. Where is Howie Mandel when you need him? The package is still in some serious trouble with opposition from a significant segment of the Washington political class – House Republicans.

The very same Bush-league laissez-faire Republicans who our own Harper Conservatives see themselves as Bush-Republican clones. These guys have systematically reduce the responsible role of government to protect citizens from excess and abuses of greed and graft.

As the Congress and White House look at passing a law on how to nationalize the American financial sector they are putting the taxpayer on the hook of $700B of more borrowed money. No doubt that money will be from more borrowing that will undoubtedly come from China one again. This will serve to make the Americans even more vulnerable and subject to the whim of the Chinese.

The chance for a world-wide recession is still very real and confidence in the marketplace is going to erode significantly, including Canada. The expectations are for a steep economic decline as credit tightens up. The TSX is down over 535 points as the time of writing and crude oil is down $6 a barrel.

The Report On Business front page story today shows that Canadian CEOs are the most pessimistic they have been in years. The Harper claims that Canada is on track for a surplus this fiscal year because just one month has shown as surplus so far does not add up. Confidence has shifted under Harper’s watch. In June 2008 58% of CEOs were looking for moderate to strong growth in the Canadian economy. One quarter later, the September 2008 confidence shows 60% of CEOs now believe the economy will go into strong or moderate decline. This is more volatility that we have seen in the election polls this time around.

It is time to look seriously at Harper’s approach to crisis. Can a one-man-band who thinks he is the only smart person in any room he visits be worth the risk? The Conservative bench strength has Harper and Prentice as the talent – now that Emerson is gone. Skills and competence of the Harper cabinet drops off dramatically after those two men. There is no “I” in team and there is no Harper team either. Do we dare put our entire future into the hands of one man – namely Mr. Harper? All of us are smarter than one of us Mr. Harper.

The Liberals have lots of bench strength economically, environmentally and socially and a proven positive record in managing the economy in tough times. It is time to bring back Paul Martin, the best Finance Minister Canada has ever had. He turned a $46B Mulroney deficit into a long time string of balanced budgets, paid down debt and ended up with a $12B surplus.

Harper squandered that $12B surplus in less than 2 years. The facts show that Harper is not the fiscal managers and stewards of the taxpayer’s dollars. He misleads in this area like he does in many other policy areas. Harper is not only not worth the risk. He is the risk.

We are all going to be in this together and for a long time. We should deal with it together...not just depend on Harper as a one-man political and policy band to deliver us from this evil. Vote for a team approach and that means you need to vote Liberal on October 14th.

The Hero's Behind the Residential School Apology

The Margaret Mead truism that we should never underestimate the ability of a small group of people to change the world, and accept the fact that change is always done that way. This reality is so evident as what caused the Government of Canada apology this past week. The identity and roles the small group of people who were behind this event has come to the fore with this Globe and Mail background story on Canada’s apology for the tragedy of residential schools.

The pressure for the apology comes from sources that are indeed a small group of people, including the former and current Conservative Ministers of Indian Affairs, Jim Prentice and Chuck Strahl along with Metis and Conservative Senator Gerry St. Germain added his considerable voice.

The efforts were trans-partisan as former Liberal MP Gary Merasty had added pressure with his House of Commons motion for an apology that was passed with Conservative support. Then there was the effective effort of the Leader of the NDP, Jack Layton and his personal influence in helping the Prime Minister work through the idea of an apology and its potential positive impact. Prime Minister Harper was persuaded and took a personal interest and is reported to have written most of the apology himself. Prime Minister Harper was also very generous in his praise of Jack Layton’s role in his preamble to the apology.

This is quality governance and good governing at its finest. It is reassuring to see that it can still trump politics. Thanks to all those who made June 11, 2008 a date that will go down in Canadian history. It is hopefully a turning point and a place-marker of where we once again began to be worthy our Canadian mythology of an inclusive, welcoming, caring and compassionate society.

Back to the Odds and Sods of Conservative Politics.

Bernier to Harper: "Look who I have as my 'official girlfriend' Stephen. What do you mean I can't keep her?"

Classy guy this Mr. Pierre Poilievre. Another Conservative caucus pit bull with no sense of occasion, fair play, manners or even nuance.

Good to see that Prime Minister Harper finally called the public inquiry into the Schreiber/Mulroney Affair. Eight months since he promised...justice delayed is justice denied Mr. Prime Minister.

The proposed new Canadian Copyright Law genuflects to the American pressures and could make Canada akin to China when it comes to controlling the Internet. I am a big fan of Jim Prentice but can’t support him on this one.

Jim Prentice Kills Satellite Deal - The Right Thing for the Right Reasons

This week illustrates another reason why I value Jim Prentice as a politician and a person. The progressive and positive positions he has taken as Minister of Industry is a continuation of his quality governance capabilities. His move this past week to kill a sell off of a publicly paid for Canadian space technology is the most recent case in point.

He is a bright, thoughtful, competent and conscientious man with enormous personal and political skills. He is a former federal Progressive Conservative leadership candidate - and my choice in those days. He is obviously so far above the posturing pettiness and the blatant bullying of the majority of his Reform types CPC “colleagues.”

The proposed sale by Canadian company MacDonald Dettwiler and Associates Ltd. of our just launched earth observation satellite, Radarsat-2, to an American corporation, Alliant, is wrong at so many levels. Prentice knows this and has moved quickly to do something about it.

We have many issues of Canadian interests at stake here, including our sovereignty over the Arctic that the Americans and others are challenging. Those dealing would be seriously compromised with this commercial deal going forward. We also have the loss of technology that we Canadian taxpayers have paid for in large part…and the company would have pocketed the benefits – not us. Then there is the fact this technology is critical new 21st century infrastructure to boot.

Well done Mr. Minister and keep up the good work - and don’t let antics of the small-minded bullys that seem to be all around you get you down.

In Alberta Lougheed's Warnings Trump the Harper Cabinet Shuffle

The Federal Cabinet shuffle was announced yesterday and the same day Peter Lougheed stole the headlines from Harper, at least in Alberta and the Globe and Mail.

As for the Federal Cabinet, I defer to The Enlightened Savage and his analysis. Save for one point – Jim Prentice is going to have his hands full. Productivity and competitiveness will be two issues that will not be tackled in the time left before an election. However continental energy supply and Canadian-US relations will be a big issue for him to deal with.

With Maxime Bernier in Foreign Affairs and American angst over homeland security – and reliable energy supply security being a big part of that concern will give Minister Prentice plenty to chew on. I posted an Editorial on Policy Channel on this issue if you are interested.

As for Peter Lougheed, with his speech yesterday at the Canadian Bar Association annual meeting, he has now changed the political priority agenda in Alberta and has positioned our fed-prov dynamic in the most dramatic of terms.

Will the Harper government engage in an environmental battle with Alberta over oil sands development and trust the Supreme Court to decide the issue on a Reference. I do not think so. Will the trade-off between environmental concerns and growth of the oils sands cause a constitutional crisis 10 times bigger than the NEP? I don’t think so.

I will have more to say about Peter Lougheed’s speech and the implications and fall out in later postings – and after I have read the speech. One thing for sure – Lougheed’ speech, as reported, is going has made a huge difference in what Alberta will be about and how we will relate to the rest of Canada.

Some Good Things That Are Happening

Lots of things happening all over the place that really adds to the feeling there are good things to come. The ones that warm my heart includes the masterful work of the Honourable Jim Prentice, federal Minister of Indian Affairs and Northern Development for the “Specific Claims Action Plan.” Getting Phil Fontaine and Stephen Harper on the same stage is brilliant work. To get them on the same page is momentous. Nothing but good things can happen form this effort and it shows once again that Jim Prentice is the crème de la crème of Progressive Conservative politicians in Canada.

Melissa Blake, the Mayor the Regional Municipality of Wood Buffalo aka Fort McMurray is running again. That is great news for the citizens of that region and city for sure. She has been one of the most effective, assertive and focused local politicians in Alberta.

The Mayors and Reeves and economic development folks in the Grande Alberta Economic Region decided yesterday to keep moving forward in finding ways to deal with and cope with the infestation of the Mountain Pine Beetle. If we don't find ways to adapt and if we can't stop the beetle, chances are it could spread across the entire boreal forest. Full disclosure, we at Cambridge Strategies have been working with them for some months now on this and they decided to take their initiatives to the next level. Our report will be on their website and Policy Channel soon.

The move by Premier Stelmach to take the leadership on meeting the need for a regional growth strategy in the Edmonton area that deal with all the surrounding municipalities, include some in his own riding is a positive move. With out this Edmonton will be turning into another neglected Fort McMurray and the costs and damages will be disastrous. Mayor Mandel shows the way how to work effectively with the provncial government. Kudos for him too.

From the really bright ideas department Suncor has announced it is looking at geothermal heating for it SAGD oil sands operations. Now let’s use the brackish ground water instead of the Athabasca River and we are on to something. That approach would eliminate using natural gas and stop the nuclear threat in its tracks. Good for Suncor. I am sensing some progress as the marketplace is starting to see some slow down in the economy, the most obvious is the decline in drilling activity in the oil patch.

Give Me Prentice Over Harper and Hill Any Day

I was struck by the juxtaposition of CPC stories in today’s Globe and Mail. Off the top, let me disclose I was a Jim Prentice supporter for the leadership of the CPC and still hold out a hope that one day it will happen. I have known him for a number of years, as a PC Party member and a fellow lawyer. We were on opposite sides over the environmental and expropriation issues surrounding the building of Old Man River Dam by the government of Alberta in southern Alberta. He was a young lawyer and second counsel on the matter but his compassion, wisdom and sound judgment was very self evident even in his “younger” days.

So in the Globe and Mail today we see Jim Prentice adding fairness and equity in a proposal to “shake up” the process for aboriginal land claims settlements. The issues are the back log of claims and a means to dispense with the stacked deck our aboriginal people face in pursuing settlements. When the “government of Canada acts as defendant, judge, jury and research body” in such matters, it is had to seen the balance and fairness and equity of such “negotiations.” Talk about conflicting roles!

Prentice sees the Indian Clams Commission, an independent body where he once served as a co-commissioner in the Mulroney days, as the means to his ends. The ICC under Prentice’s idea will be delegated the power to actually settle treaty and land claims itself, not the conflicted government of Canada. According the G&M front page story, this approach “marks a “seismic shift in the way land-claims treaties have been negotiated in the past 60 years.” I agree!

Then, by way of contrast, we have the page A4 story and picture of the co-conspirators of Stephen Harper and Jay Hill (CPC Whip) presumably mulling over their latest masterpiece a “manual on disrupting committee meetings.” We have the Keystone Kons shifting their share of the blame many times before in a masterful display of “Bush-league” tactics. They justify this travesty again blaming the opposition by Hill claiming all they are doing is “to push back when we see the opposition parties basically getting together and trying to put together a coalition government between the three of them.”

HELLO! What do you expect in a minority government? The Kons and the “other parties” did the very same thing in order to bring down the Martin Liberal minority government when it pleased…save and except the dearly departed (in more ways than one) Belinda Stronach. The reaction to disrupt and abdicate the responsibility to govern is not an acceptable response Mr. Hill!

The CPC is a minority government selected by Canadians with expectations that they would work towards finding compromises and actually actively govern, perhaps with a tad of integrity and alacrity from time to time. We see delay tactics from both sides but especially from the Cons. Worse yet we see our “government” engaged in cheap tactical gamesmanship designed to “push back!” Again we see the character flaws of the current PM shining through. He seems always to be more intent on winning skirmishes in Question Period and now at Commons Committee instead to showing a capacity for meaningful leadership.

I can’t help thinking that if Jim Prentice were the CPC leader today we would have a socially progressive and a fiscally conservative government with enlightened and compassionate leadership that respects people as citizens and taxpayers. We could trust our leader as a person of integrity and character with new approaches and new ideas and a personal capacity to govern.

But alas my desire for change is not much more than thinking and hoping. Unfortunately thinking doesn’t make it so and hope is not a method to achieve meaningful change.

Hancock Meets Clement; Renner Meets Baird and Boutilier Briefs Stelmach

Interesting developments in the offing on the fed-prov front with a raft of new meetings. The Alberta and Federal Ministers of Environment (Renner and Baird) and Health (Hancock and Clement) Ministers are about to meet. These meetings include provincial Ministers who are not the rookies in Cabinet but the issues are serious and they represent the top two priority issues facing the country. No indication yet as to the agendas will be but given the times and the pressures, they will likely be significant…especially with all the elections coming in the near future.

Interesting that Prime Minister Harper is giving a major speech tomorrow to the Canadian Club in Ottawa. This is just before the Council of the Federation First Minister's conference call on Wednesday. Harper's presentation is being billed as "equivalent to a Throne Speech." You can't tell me that is coincidence. Curious as to what he has to say, especially to the Premiers in this speech. My guess is they are his primary intended audience.

The Council of the Federation meeting scheduled for Feb 7 has been reduced to a conference call due to scheduling problems. Too bad because it would have been interesting to see how new Premier Stelmach would make out on his debut First Ministers meetings. I would be anxious, at many levels, to see how Premier Stelmach would be served by his newly minted Minister of Intergovernmental Affairs Guy (Alberta as the Bad Boy of Confederation) Boutilier. Stelmach has done this Intergovernmental job, and by all accounts was pretty good at it so his expectations of his new Minister will be very high.

Speaking of Minister Boutilier, we see he is about to be seized with a challenge on the aboriginal aspect of his portfolio. The foster child care for aboriginal children have seen Grand Chief Phil Fontaine make demands for better responses to the needs of aboriginal children at risk. Given that the issue is receiving front page coverage, it would not be a surprise if this was a “walk on” agenda item at the First Ministers meeting on Wednesday.

The usual fed-prov posturing can be expected but it will sure be disappointing if all we see is finger pointing. The turmoil caused by a tragic death of a 3 year old boy in Alberta’s foster care guarantee serious media scrutiny on the foster care concerns for aboriginal children. How will Alberta, namely Minister Boutilier, respond? Will Alberta actually engage and work with their Conservative brethren on this issue? The good news is Jim Prentice, the most competent of all the federal Ministers, is on the Canada side of the issue.

Let’s hope we don’t see a classic case of over promising and under delivering that seems dog the Boutilier political approach. For example, looking at his past musing on the twinning of highway 63 to Fort McMurray one has to wonder if his motivation is always just purely political and power plays.

Media reports recently say he was assuring the Fort McMurray folks the road twinning could be done in 3 years. But that was when he was a Cabinet Minister supporting Lyle Oberg, the then Infrastructure Minister, and PC Party leadership bid. Oberg is the same Minister who was turfed from caucus by his colleagues for accusing them of having political skeletons (which he failed to prove) and for using (abusing?) his portfolio to advance his leadership aspirations last spring. Well the reality sets in now that the need for hype has passed and the twinning looks like it is now stretching out to seven years and counting.

Harsh reality and patience are the defining characteristics of the good folks of Wood Buffalo and the city of Fort McMurray in particular. How much long do the citizens of Fort McMurray have to suffer? And at so may levels and in so many ways and in the face of so much growth pressure?

Harper Cabinet Rates a 50/50 Approval in Recent Poll

Nicole Martel has an interesting post on an Angus Reid poll on the approval ratings of certain Harper Cabinet Ministers. There net positives are for Harper, Flaherty and McKay…Prentice is not seen in any of the data reports I looked at. Jim is way too far below the radar – working hard and effectively at the coal face but nobody knows it. Everyone else looks pretty bland or just plain bad.

The moral of the story is they are mostly a 50/50 crowd with lots of “Don’t Knows” as you will see when you click the link to the Toronto Star story. This proves the nation is essentially "test driving" the Harper government to see if we what to buy his form of government. Based on these results if is pretty obvious that we are not yet impressed nor particularly dismayed with the performance either. The Harper Cons have not yet done anything to really significnat make a mark that will win our hearts and minds over the past year. The fact that al other recent polls say Harper and Dion are statisticaly tied has to be a discomforting fact for "Steve."

Nicole also directs us to the other Toronto Star piece where the Harper Cons political rhetoric is matched against the factual reality of the Liberals and Dion. I have been waiting and hoping someone would do this comparison. The various examples used are a classic rebuttal of the issues framing done by the Harper Message Machine. He and his goverment is proven to be very disingenuous in their misrepresentations about the Liberals and Dion, and I am being generous in my assessment when I say that.

The Star story is also a very effective rebuttal of the pervasive MSM culture of take things said by politicians that are purely political at face value. We see this lack of background research and fact checking is just much too prevalent in political reporting today. It all gets repeated in other media and gossip gets over reported as "news" and then the misinformation become the "reality." We mere mortals have to wonder if anyone cares about accuracy and truth in politics today.

Anyway, with polling "approval" numbers like theses, Harper better hope Layton doesn’t ask for too much in the forthcoming Budget. There is nothing in these polling approval levels to foster any confidence by, for and about a Harper victory in an election in the near future. Remember also that campaigns matter and yesterday is not a precursor of tomorrow any more.

At 50/50 Harper's fortunes could go either way...but clearly the Cons are not on solid enough ground to want an election anytime soon. With every day that passes the environment embeds as more of an issue and Layton has to wonder about May's momentum and Harper has to worry about Dion getting better known and more acceptable as a possible alternative for the next Prime Minister.

Good for the Star for reporting on the reality over the rhetoric. Thx Nicole for bringing it to our attention. I had $10 bucks riding on a spring election. I think I may have to cough up the cash and eat some crow in a couple of months.

Bad Boy Guy Boutilier

There is mounting evidence that Albertans are getting tired of suffering the insufferable Guy Boutilier? He is clearly becoming one of the least effectual politicians in the minds of Albertans today.

His recent misadventure is to engage in the mock battle over the meaning and implication of the Harper “mis-muse” about the Quebec “nation” and to assure Albertans that we can and should be the "bad boys of Confederation" to be sure we get our fair share. Nobody better try to mess with Guy Boutilier's Alberta. We can be tough and no body better try and us push around or short change us, least of all the government of Canada.

Boutilier in his new role as our “chief diplomat,” has stepped right into this "Quebec nation" business. It is a political cow pie if there ever was one. He does it with the classic and tired grumpy old Reform/Alliance framing mantra of panting over an implied or perceived pandering to Quebec that must be costing Alberta something somehow. He reverts to putting the proverbial political chip on the proverbial Alberta shoulder and dares anyone in Ottawa to knock it off.

Today Albertans are looking for politicians that will move forward to find ways to design and define a new positive leadership role for Alberta within Canada. We are not interested in trying to perfect the past based on perpetuating the angst of "the west wants in." Lets face it, Alberta is in.

Not since the Mulroney days have Albertans had so much power and influence in the federal government. The Prime Minister and his man for all reasons, Jim Prentice a de facto Deputy PM both come from Calgary. The key nation building national agenda setting Intergovernmental Affairs portfolio is also an Albertan. The Minister of Human Resources and Social Development is Albertan and Stockwell Day the Minister of Public Safety was recently Albertan and is still very Alberta sensitive. Calgary’s Jason Kenney, the former Parliamentary Secretary to the PM and now Secretary of State for Multiculturalism and Canadian Identity around out the "Alberta In Team."

Newspaper reports, editorials, along with letters to the editor of newspapers and the blogosphere are all now commenting at length on the Boutilier shortcoming and limited capabilities including his most recent posturing making Alberta appear as a reactionary about the Quebec nation issue.

I particularly liked the comments of the more reflective thinker like Paul Boothe of the U of A put it best about Alberta’s role in Confederation when he said, "Confederation is working well for Alberta," and went on to say "I'm not interested in Alberta being a bad boy. I'm interested in Alberta being a leader."

Boothe gets the mood of Alberta today. Boutilier is trying to hold on to a past Alberta that has long since been the past. Albertans have moved on and we want politicians ready to move on with us not just try to hang on to the past.

Yes a strong Alberta does make for a strong Canada. But to most of us Alberta more of a notion than a nation. The notion of Alberta is that we are adaptive and innovative. We are energetic and engaging. We are inclusive and curious. I think being a notion, an idea, a work in progress is a better description of the dynamics of Alberta today than any artifical mimicry of a Quebec nation concept.

Ambrose Survives Cabinet Shuffle Smelling Like a Rose

For those who think Rona Ambrose was benched or even marginalized in the recent Harper Cabinet shuffle, should think again. Sure she is no longer on the short leash she suffered as Environment Minister. That issue is becoming the “hot button” political and policy area leading up to the next election and the jury is out on John Baird . I am still optimistic he will get enough latitude to change things in the Harper government culture.

Intergovernmental Affairs is a brain trust portfolio with lot of interesting issues and complexity. This is a perfect place for someone like Ambrose who loves a challenge with interesting issues and moving targets and drama. I have noted in earlier postings I expect Ambrose to flourish in this arena.

The equally, if not more interesting development coming out of the Cabinet shuffle for Ambrose are the side bars to her appointment. As head of Western Economic Diversification I expect she will become very activitist as the face of the Harper government in the WED primary areas community development, innovation and entrepreneurship throughout the west. This should help assure her re-election and allow her to do some good too.

The other very interesting sidebar is her influence as President of the Queen’s Privy Council and her committee assignments. She sits on three of the seven key Cabinet committees and two of them are chaired by Jim Prentice the de facto Deputy Prime Minister. Prentice, by the way, sits or chairs a full five committees and takes care of a full portfolio as well as being the political Minister for Alberta. Jim Prentice has to be the hardest working guy on the Hill.

Ambrose sits on Prentice’s Operations Committee that does the day-to-day coordination of the government agenda, issues management, legislation, house planning and communications. All of it is critical stuff for the continuing success of the Harper government going into the next election.

The next Ambrose committee is Social Affairs that deals with issues around health care, justice, aboriginal, training and skills development, culture and immigration policy issues. Again we see a plethora of critical issues and concern to Canadians.

Finally she sits on the new Environment and Energy Security Committee that is chaired again by Prentice. Here is the place where the environment and the economy will be balanced with concerns over energy security ad related policy issues.

Anyone who thinks Ambrose is out of the loop in this Cabinet shuffle is not looking at the devil in the details and the fine print behind the press releases. To focus on the typical personality driven news noise coverage of who is in, who is out, who is a comer and who is falling from grace is to miss a great deal of the import and impact of the shuffle. By any objective measure Ambrose has done very well through it all.

Harper Shuffles Big Time Hoping to Buy Some Time

The personality issues are interesting gossip but the subtleties are where you will find the real substance of these Cabinet changes. Stephen Harper sharpens his focus, fixes some problems and I believe he enhances his Cabinet’s capacity too.

My guess is he is trying to delay the inevitable election from this spring to the fall with this shift in focus and this significant shuffle. He needs to buy some time to show he can govern affirmatively and not just be an alternative to the old Liberal regime.

The recent Liberal leadership change to Dion has seen public move beyond the angst and anger at the old Liberals. Change is in the air but who represent change is undecided given recent poll results with the Libs and Cons in a dead heat.

This desire to delay a federal election gives Charest elbow room to go to the polls in Quebec first with the support of a favourable Harper Budget. The polls are not positive for any party right now and too close to call. Harper wants some time to bring up the Cons numbers to where he can feel comfortable going into an election. There is not a clear consensus from the polls that the public wants an earlier election either and the opposition parties are all far from ready.

The shuffle give a sharper governance focus with Rona Ambrose in Intergovernmental Affairs and responsibility for the Western Economic Diversification. The MSM will harp on where she came “from” but the real story is where she is “going.”

This is a very smart strategic move by the Prime Minister as it speaks to the Ambrose strengths and takes advantage of her political credibility, especially in Alberta. Lots of fed-prov complexity looming and a need for real relationship building here. Ambrose will be good at it and will thrive in this new role.

Baird in Environment will get in trouble quickly if he keeps his pit bull approach to politics especially with the sophisticated ENGOs and the industry sectors. If he makes some significant serious changes quickly that are more closely aligned with the values and concerns of Canadians he will be one of the most effective Harper Ministers. If the Clean Air Act culture of hype and hyperbole ("smog and mirrors")persists with no serious political engagement, then Baird will be the new Ambrose. Expect his courage, capability, influence and adaptability to be tested very quickly.

Nicholson in Justice and Toews out will not be reassuring to the religious right and the future of their social conservative policy agenda. It signals that Harper does not want a focus on social conservative issues so expect Nicholson to put a lid on it until after the next election. Toews in Treasury Board tells me the new Budget and planning for 2007 is virtually a done deal by Baird already. Toews will likely be a caretaker on a short leash from the Prime Minister who is going to be the only real power in Treasury Board going forward.

The sleeper issue is the new focus on Seniors with another Senator appointed to Cabinet. With Marjory LeBreton’s appointment we can expect some serious new attention to this neglected sector of Harper's former Alliance/Reform base. The fear is that these folks are significantly disenchanted with the Harper government and could stayh home next election. This mean we can expect some tax reforms and program goodies in the pending Budget to overcome the perception of political neglect and the impact of the Income Trust decision on these fixed income seniors.

Keeping Prentice in place is the smartest “move” overall in this shuffle. I was right about Prentice in an earlier post but wrong on Rajotte being called to “the show.” Glad about the former, sad about the latter.

The rest is more like deck chair changes of no real consequence but it is good to see more women in and the smart politics of more Quebec involvement too. Not all of the problems have been fixed, like Defence and Heritage where there are some very hot buttons pending on procurement processes. The mean spirited recent Heritage social program cuts will come home to roost with political consequences too.

The overarching open question still is has the PM learn to share authority and responsibility or is he still going be the THE government and the de facto Minister of Everything!

James Rajotte for Cabinet!

If there is a Harper Cabinet shuffle in the works, and it looks imminent, I hope the PM adds James Rajotte to his Cabinet. This is a quiet steady and very loyal guy with some real abilities whose praises are too often left unsung.

Having a Minister actually from Edmonton will bolster Harper’s support in this city in the pending election too. An Ambrose, Bernier shuffle would leave the Industry portfolio open for a man of Rajotte’s calibre.

Prentice is already ensconced deeply in the day to day details of the operations of the government and has some real passion for the work he has started in the Indian Affairs portfolio. He needs a move like a hole in the head. Bernier in Environment would make a lot of sense and Quebec would sure notice. The Cons needs to elevate their game in the environment, especially in Quebec.

The Van Loon bench warming in Intergovernmental Affairs due to the Michael Chong resignation over the Quebec Nation tactic could come to an end easily and no one would notice. The relative merits between and Rajotte and a Van Loon in the Cabinet weigh heavily in favour of the former on talent, experience and loyalty to the Leader.

I’m pulling for James!