So some more poll results are out that are adding to the fact that the predominant mood out there is confusion. And these results just add to the confusion so far as I can tell.
The SES Research National Survey poll today based on1002 participants between Feb2-8 on the “Leadership Report Card.” notes that Stephen Harper has “significantly improved” his leadership image in the year plus a bit since he was elected. His trustworthiness is up 14 points to 35%, his competence rating is up 17 points to 41% and the impression of his vision for the country is up 14 points to 39%. Clearly Stephen Harper is showing signs of growing into the job of Prime Minister over the past year. The January 2006 comparative results had only 400 participants so the margin of error was higher.
The Layton numbers have to be sobering with a 7% decline in trustworthiness to 18%, a 4% decline in competence to 13% and a 2% decline to 16% for having an acceptable vision of the country.
The poll numbers on Dion and May are pretty meaningless in terms of personal assessments. This is because of the party leadership changes that happened in November and December. The polls is asking the same questions about a time frame that actually had other people in the party leadership and only having a few weeks to become known, including the Christmas period. When we ask about trustworthiness during a time of transition from a Martin/Dion and a Harris/May change in leadership, what is it people are actually saying in their replies? Who is it that they are really speaking about in terms of trust, competence and vision when they answer?
It appears that Harper is growing into the job and Layton is growing out of one. Not much else can be interpreted from this poll and lots can be speculated. Speculation has like to add to any real meaning and understanding.
The Angus Reid poll out today on “Harper and Dion Who is the Greenest?” has more insight into what is on the minds and what is meaningful to voters. I will do a separate post on this poll shortly.
Monday, February 12, 2007
Sunday, February 11, 2007
Harper and Charest Meet the Press Tomorrow!
I see Prime Minister Harper has announced on this Sunday afternoon that he is making an announcement at 10:30 EST tomorrow with Quebec's Prime Minister Jean Charest in Sherbrooke Quebec and then he is off to Trois-Rivieres to "deliver remarks" at 6 pm EST. That is all very elucidating don't you think?
Can’t imagine what all that fuss could possibly be about but it is "open to the media" so it must be of substance. (sic) The unspoken subtext will be the trade off deal has been made to cement an agreement Harper and Charest have come to on election timing in Quebec. Not doubt Harper wants Quebec to go to the polls first. That way he doesn’t have to make promises to Quebec in an earlier federal election that would alienate his base amongst Alberta Reformer/Alliance types and contain promises he would have to deliver on - and be held accountable for in a subsequent Quebec election.
It looks like even the serendipity is fully planned in advance in a Stephen Harper world. I smell a spring election at Harper's behest. He is engineering his defeat...even the Harper rhetoric is that the opposition "will have to account for all the unpassed Bills left on the order paper" if they bring down his government now. That reality sure did not stop him when he defeated Martin and forced a winter election. Lots of Bills of substance have been lost in the swirling winds of time when Harper saw the advantage and forced an election.
It could be the Budget and the debate on it that ticks off the opposition enough to bring down this government. NDP leader Layton is not getting much by way of "atta boys" trying to do to the Harper's budget that he did to Martin's so he is likely ready to pull the pin too. Only the Bloc is likely to be truly hesitant...but then who cares about that.
No inside information on this, I am just reading the entrails of the political rhetoric and the pandering that is going on. I am starting to smell an election.
Can’t imagine what all that fuss could possibly be about but it is "open to the media" so it must be of substance. (sic) The unspoken subtext will be the trade off deal has been made to cement an agreement Harper and Charest have come to on election timing in Quebec. Not doubt Harper wants Quebec to go to the polls first. That way he doesn’t have to make promises to Quebec in an earlier federal election that would alienate his base amongst Alberta Reformer/Alliance types and contain promises he would have to deliver on - and be held accountable for in a subsequent Quebec election.
It looks like even the serendipity is fully planned in advance in a Stephen Harper world. I smell a spring election at Harper's behest. He is engineering his defeat...even the Harper rhetoric is that the opposition "will have to account for all the unpassed Bills left on the order paper" if they bring down his government now. That reality sure did not stop him when he defeated Martin and forced a winter election. Lots of Bills of substance have been lost in the swirling winds of time when Harper saw the advantage and forced an election.
It could be the Budget and the debate on it that ticks off the opposition enough to bring down this government. NDP leader Layton is not getting much by way of "atta boys" trying to do to the Harper's budget that he did to Martin's so he is likely ready to pull the pin too. Only the Bloc is likely to be truly hesitant...but then who cares about that.
No inside information on this, I am just reading the entrails of the political rhetoric and the pandering that is going on. I am starting to smell an election.
Saturday, February 10, 2007
Watch for Graham Thomson's Reporting from Afghanistan
My friend, Graham Thomson, a political columnist with the Edmonton Journal, is off on an “adventure.” He is on his way to Afghanistan to be embedded with our troops for a couple of months. We had lunch recently and he was really excited in an engaged and focused way. I think his is crazy to be going but he is looking forward to meeting and living with our troops and getting their stories and impressions of what we are accomplishing
He is looking forward to writing is column about the stories of the Canadian soldiers and what it is we are really doing over there that benefits and serves the future needs and aspirations of the Afghan people.
He promises to blog regularly too. His blog is linked to this site and I hope you visit him often. We need to pay more attention to the end goal there – not just an exit strategy. We are likely committed to be in this country for a generation before the needed changes can become realized.
Good luck Graham and send us back a sense of what Canada is contributing.
He is looking forward to writing is column about the stories of the Canadian soldiers and what it is we are really doing over there that benefits and serves the future needs and aspirations of the Afghan people.
He promises to blog regularly too. His blog is linked to this site and I hope you visit him often. We need to pay more attention to the end goal there – not just an exit strategy. We are likely committed to be in this country for a generation before the needed changes can become realized.
Good luck Graham and send us back a sense of what Canada is contributing.
Harper Human Rights and Organ Harvesting in China
I have serious reservations over lots of what the Harper government is doing in so many areas, from the environment, to mandatory minimum sentences to national child care diverted to a phony positioning of presenting “choice.” I really despaired over their ideological induced demise of social programs like literacy supports. Much of this is caused by an incomplete and shallow sense of our society by the Cons who presumes simple self reliance and pulling up ones “socks" is all anyone need for success.
However, when I agree with Harper, I also have to give him his due. The reversal of a campaign promise on income trusts is one I agreed wholeheartedly with and said so in earlier postings on this Blog. I suspect his adamant campaign period promise in defense of the status quo for income trusts was pure politics. One would expect, however, with his celebrated grasp of economics, he'd of had a better handle on the issue's implications and been more forthright on it in the campaign.
We all "know", that in politics, there is a generaly held "belief" that there are certain things you just have to say to win and they are often very different from what you actually have to do once you get the job. The income trust reversal may be a case in point. Doing the right thing for the wrong reasons is no more redeeming than doing the political thing purely for reasons of power. Sometimes you just have to forget your principles and do the right thing, even in a campaign. (sic)
Once again, however, I am delighted to find myself agreeing with Harper, this time on China relations. The link between human rights and trade with China (and some others too) has to be made pointedly and held strongly. I disagree with the Harper government more often than I agree with it, but fair is fair.
Prime Minister Harper is right to stand up and be counted on human rights as foundational to Canada's long term trade relations with China. People have to realize respect for human rights is essential to long term mature trade relations, just as much as an independent justice system and a reliable currency system is foundational to effective trade relations.
I like Harper’s stand on this, and in particular, his rebuttal to the Liberal Opposition criticism of his stand. They have tried to frame him as “a bumbling cold warrior” accusing him of having “little influence in Beijing because of (his) blunt public criticism and lack of finesse on international affairs.” Harper counters that “past Liberal governments failed to standup to the Chinese on questions of human rights, with no apparent improvement in trade.” Appeasement and pussy-footing are inconsistent with the qualities necessary and the strength of character needed today, be it in a leader or in a country.
In the wake of Maher Arar, we now have the case of Huseyin Celil, a Chinese born Canadian citizen imprisoned in China on terrorism charges with the Chinese denying his Canadian citizenship, even though our government adamantly acknowledges he is a Canadian. Harper also seems to be on this case now too. Wow! Maybe our government is starting to see there is value and rights attached to being Canadian and they need to be protected and respected.
Good on ya Stephen Harper! Now please take up another important humans rights issue with China. Do something about the human rights violation inherent in their harvesting and trading of human organs from prisoners and members of the Falun Gong. I will be monitoring your progress with great interest and a keen eye.
However, when I agree with Harper, I also have to give him his due. The reversal of a campaign promise on income trusts is one I agreed wholeheartedly with and said so in earlier postings on this Blog. I suspect his adamant campaign period promise in defense of the status quo for income trusts was pure politics. One would expect, however, with his celebrated grasp of economics, he'd of had a better handle on the issue's implications and been more forthright on it in the campaign.
We all "know", that in politics, there is a generaly held "belief" that there are certain things you just have to say to win and they are often very different from what you actually have to do once you get the job. The income trust reversal may be a case in point. Doing the right thing for the wrong reasons is no more redeeming than doing the political thing purely for reasons of power. Sometimes you just have to forget your principles and do the right thing, even in a campaign. (sic)
Once again, however, I am delighted to find myself agreeing with Harper, this time on China relations. The link between human rights and trade with China (and some others too) has to be made pointedly and held strongly. I disagree with the Harper government more often than I agree with it, but fair is fair.
Prime Minister Harper is right to stand up and be counted on human rights as foundational to Canada's long term trade relations with China. People have to realize respect for human rights is essential to long term mature trade relations, just as much as an independent justice system and a reliable currency system is foundational to effective trade relations.
I like Harper’s stand on this, and in particular, his rebuttal to the Liberal Opposition criticism of his stand. They have tried to frame him as “a bumbling cold warrior” accusing him of having “little influence in Beijing because of (his) blunt public criticism and lack of finesse on international affairs.” Harper counters that “past Liberal governments failed to standup to the Chinese on questions of human rights, with no apparent improvement in trade.” Appeasement and pussy-footing are inconsistent with the qualities necessary and the strength of character needed today, be it in a leader or in a country.
In the wake of Maher Arar, we now have the case of Huseyin Celil, a Chinese born Canadian citizen imprisoned in China on terrorism charges with the Chinese denying his Canadian citizenship, even though our government adamantly acknowledges he is a Canadian. Harper also seems to be on this case now too. Wow! Maybe our government is starting to see there is value and rights attached to being Canadian and they need to be protected and respected.
Good on ya Stephen Harper! Now please take up another important humans rights issue with China. Do something about the human rights violation inherent in their harvesting and trading of human organs from prisoners and members of the Falun Gong. I will be monitoring your progress with great interest and a keen eye.
Friday, February 09, 2007
Harper Attack Ads Didn't Do the Job on Dion
There are a few new poll results out that were in the field after the Cons attack ads were run. they were designed to position Dion as not being a leader and a do nothing guy on the environment.
The polls are all over the place proving voter volatility is the new normal. There is no clear preference of party leader nor do we have any definitive indication of a preferred political direction in the mind of voters.
Nik Nanos’ SES NationState poll surveyed 913 Canadians between Feb 2 and 8th and shows a Dion/Harper “dead heat” at 33% each of committed voters but the trend lines show Harper in decline and Dion ascending. There are fewer uncommitted voters everywhere since the November 2006 results except in Ontario which is constant and the highest of uncommitted voters at 12%. Quebecers are leaving the Bloc in droves (-11) and those supporter seem to be moving to the Conservatives (+8). The Greens are the strongest in the West at 9% (+1) and the Cons are waning a bit in the West (-7).
What Harper gains in Quebec he is losing in the West but will that result in any seat changes in either place? Not likely but it will be interesting to see how much Harper is prepared to risk his western base loyalty to win Quebec in search of a majority government. The west is obviously noticing Harper's priority focus on Quebec's issues.
Leger has a survey of 1500 run from January 30 to February 4th. They redistribute the undecided responders in proportion to the actual poll allocation and get an increased 7% delta between Cons and Libs, in Harper’s favour. What evidence that undecided will vote and if so, that they split like the rest of the population? The Libs and Bloc are tied in Quebec and Harper “owns” Alberta at 59%. Again the Greens are knocking on the NDP door in the west but they are not there yet to surpass them. A full 15% were not committed or didn’t want to participate. The trend lines show no net change in the party support levels since the 2006 election when the margin of error is applied.
Finally we have Angus Reid’s results of 909 Canadians surveyed on line January 30 and 31, 2007. This was an on line survey designed to test the effectiveness of the Cons attack ads. They asked questions before people saw the ads and then asked them again after they viewed the ads on their computer screens. The report results say “the attack ads didn’t work.” The decline in perceptions of Dion post –viewing the ads was negligible dropping 1% from 40 to 39 on the question of who “would be the best Prime Minister.” Harper’s approvals stayed the same at 36%.
So not only did the attack ads not diminish Dion they added nothing to Harper’s positive profile either. Another key figure is the “Don’t Knows.” A quarter of Canadians have yet to make up their minds on which of these two guys are the best to lead the country. Voter volatility is potentially the ruling factor in the next election results. That means the campaigns will matter.
The next set of questions went to the Dion’s character and capability. The ads reduced perceptions of Dion ability to lead – the prime reasons for running the ads in the first place – by 5% - moving 3% away from his pre-ad supporters and 2% from undecided voters. Other perception questions on Dion and the environment, trust to keep promises and manage the public purse saw the ads have more impact. They changing poll results with more people have a diminished perception of Dion but the change came mostly from the undecided ranks and not from the core Dion support. these question tend to remind voters about the old Liberal fiascos under Chretien and Martin. The Liberals are not yet out of the penalty box but Dion does not get blamed for the "penalty" in the first place.
Only in the "will he improve the environment" question did Dion seem to have a glove laid on him. Then his core support went from 53% before seeing the ads to 47% afterwards. Some perspecitve isneeded here. If Dion actually got 47% of the popular vote in an election he would be forming a Liberal majority…so it is not really indicating much of a body blow to Dion’s potential electoral fortunes.
The hoopla over the ads and the big money spent, including the Super Bowl buy has to be very discouraging to the Tory war room given the net results being bugger all. Not much momentum coming out of this "full court press" on Dion by the Cons, especially for the money they spent on those ads. There is a glimmer of hope though; the ads are reported to have had to the most impact, such as it was, in Ontario and female voters, two key targets for Conservatives in the next election. Their money may not have been totally wasted.
The polls are all over the place proving voter volatility is the new normal. There is no clear preference of party leader nor do we have any definitive indication of a preferred political direction in the mind of voters.
Nik Nanos’ SES NationState poll surveyed 913 Canadians between Feb 2 and 8th and shows a Dion/Harper “dead heat” at 33% each of committed voters but the trend lines show Harper in decline and Dion ascending. There are fewer uncommitted voters everywhere since the November 2006 results except in Ontario which is constant and the highest of uncommitted voters at 12%. Quebecers are leaving the Bloc in droves (-11) and those supporter seem to be moving to the Conservatives (+8). The Greens are the strongest in the West at 9% (+1) and the Cons are waning a bit in the West (-7).
What Harper gains in Quebec he is losing in the West but will that result in any seat changes in either place? Not likely but it will be interesting to see how much Harper is prepared to risk his western base loyalty to win Quebec in search of a majority government. The west is obviously noticing Harper's priority focus on Quebec's issues.
Leger has a survey of 1500 run from January 30 to February 4th. They redistribute the undecided responders in proportion to the actual poll allocation and get an increased 7% delta between Cons and Libs, in Harper’s favour. What evidence that undecided will vote and if so, that they split like the rest of the population? The Libs and Bloc are tied in Quebec and Harper “owns” Alberta at 59%. Again the Greens are knocking on the NDP door in the west but they are not there yet to surpass them. A full 15% were not committed or didn’t want to participate. The trend lines show no net change in the party support levels since the 2006 election when the margin of error is applied.
Finally we have Angus Reid’s results of 909 Canadians surveyed on line January 30 and 31, 2007. This was an on line survey designed to test the effectiveness of the Cons attack ads. They asked questions before people saw the ads and then asked them again after they viewed the ads on their computer screens. The report results say “the attack ads didn’t work.” The decline in perceptions of Dion post –viewing the ads was negligible dropping 1% from 40 to 39 on the question of who “would be the best Prime Minister.” Harper’s approvals stayed the same at 36%.
So not only did the attack ads not diminish Dion they added nothing to Harper’s positive profile either. Another key figure is the “Don’t Knows.” A quarter of Canadians have yet to make up their minds on which of these two guys are the best to lead the country. Voter volatility is potentially the ruling factor in the next election results. That means the campaigns will matter.
The next set of questions went to the Dion’s character and capability. The ads reduced perceptions of Dion ability to lead – the prime reasons for running the ads in the first place – by 5% - moving 3% away from his pre-ad supporters and 2% from undecided voters. Other perception questions on Dion and the environment, trust to keep promises and manage the public purse saw the ads have more impact. They changing poll results with more people have a diminished perception of Dion but the change came mostly from the undecided ranks and not from the core Dion support. these question tend to remind voters about the old Liberal fiascos under Chretien and Martin. The Liberals are not yet out of the penalty box but Dion does not get blamed for the "penalty" in the first place.
Only in the "will he improve the environment" question did Dion seem to have a glove laid on him. Then his core support went from 53% before seeing the ads to 47% afterwards. Some perspecitve isneeded here. If Dion actually got 47% of the popular vote in an election he would be forming a Liberal majority…so it is not really indicating much of a body blow to Dion’s potential electoral fortunes.
The hoopla over the ads and the big money spent, including the Super Bowl buy has to be very discouraging to the Tory war room given the net results being bugger all. Not much momentum coming out of this "full court press" on Dion by the Cons, especially for the money they spent on those ads. There is a glimmer of hope though; the ads are reported to have had to the most impact, such as it was, in Ontario and female voters, two key targets for Conservatives in the next election. Their money may not have been totally wasted.
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