Rick Mercer on Election "Fever"

What is the world coming to when only our satirists make sense anymore? Rick Mercer proves that point in this perceptive piece in the Globe and Mail today.

The EKOS poll of Sept 24 has some interesting results. I think the increase of the Cons support and the decrease of the NDP support revolves around the fact Canadians do not want an election now. The flat Liberal support in the face of the declaration that they will no longer prop up the Harper government means that they will now be acting like a true opposition. No longer will the Liberals be saying how insufficient and ineffective the government is and then voting for their policies to avoid an election.

The Cons level of commitment to their party is based on the sense that this next election is the last great hope for Harper to get a majority. If he fails to do that, the long knives will be out amongst the party elites and the base will stay home. The push to redistribute the House of Commons seats this fall will add seats in Alberta, BC and Ontario. Harper will pander to people there this election. It will not be as much as he pandered to Quebec last election but he has to bolster his base in BC and Alberta and grow in Ontario to get a majority.

The real and seriously under reported story of this poll is the level of uncommitted, and soft commitment levels. The hype on the Cons level of commitment is part of the total of 7% of all Canadians who are strongly committed to a party at this time. The Con supporters who are committed true believers are no more committed than Liberals, NDP or Greens, there are just slightly more of them in the 7% total for the country. That is no reason to leap to calling an election result.

The facts are that 27% are not committed, and 67% are moderately or loosely committed. That means 2/3 of Canadians are swing voters. This means the voter is volatile and in a vile mood. Call an early and unnecessary election at your peril Mr. Layton. Pander to regionalism and prefer stimulus funds to your pals in Conservative ridings at your peril Mr. Harper. Be passive aggressive and vaguely defined at your peril Mr. Ignatieff. As for Ms. May, just get into the House of Commons next election and you win.

Mr. Harper, Your Time is UP!

So the Federal Liberals have their political mojo back and are ready to be a political party and a political force once again. The key message from Michael Ignatieff coming out of the Liberal Caucus meeting this week is "Mr. Harper, your time is up!" Yes it is and it is about time too!

The Liberals are back, they have some buck and bravado to boot. So will we have a fall election? That depends on Jack Layton all of a sudden. The NDP have to shed their sheep's clothing of the past 4 years and now have to stifle their sanctimony. They loved to talk about how they were "consistently" not supporting the Harper government as if that was some symbol of political integrity. It was pure positioning and political opportunism, and a safe bet because of how weak an unprepared the Liberals were to face another election. But that was then and this is now.

Layton met privately with Harper recently. I am sure they are working on a deal to prop up Deceivin' Stephen for a while longer. Harper is hoping to buy some time by doing some Dipper pandering. He want to give the economy time to really turn around so his Con Artists can take credit for it. Layton will trade an early election for regulated credit card rates. Harper will give him an all-party committee to study the issues like with EI!

This gamesmanship is not new for Harper or Layton. Layton cut a deal to prop up Martin' s minority and even had the nerve to claim the Martin budget as an NDP budget in the bargain. Hyperbole and histrionics are part of the political game but Layton can go overboard. Harper was cutting a deal with the Bloc a few years back to force the non-confidence vote to defeat the Martin government. So Harper has proven that he will even hop into bed with separatists for the purposes of gaining personal political power. Old-time Reformers (are there any other kind?) must be fuming at the prospects of a repeat of that possibility.

So we have had at least two recent and really unnecessary elections - both caused by Mr. Harper's hubris. First, when he defeated the Martin minority when Canadians had just elected it. We were insisting we wanted our politicians to learn to work together for the good of the country. That was our political agenda in electing a minority government. But that was not the goal of Deceivin' Stephen. He cut a deal with the separatists and pushed us to the polls.

The next unnecessary and unwanted election was the last one. That was when Harper was too scared to face the House of Commons. Instead he shut down Parliament and prorogued the House then slithered off to ask the Gov Gen for an election. That too was and election that nobody wanted and to prove our discontent, we stayed home from the polls in record numbers.

Now Deceivin' Stephen is saying, rather sanctimoniously, that he "...hasn't met a single Canadian who's saying they want to see an election right now." As if that matters to him as some kind of foundational principled way that he stands by. The last two unnecesasry election were one that he caused. We didn't want or need them but that did not matter to Harper because he was on a mission to gain absolute personal political power.

So will we have an election this fall? Ask Jack Layton. It is in his hands right now. After the Bloc news conference today we may also see a different scenario emerging. Will Duceppe try to take the stage as the primary prop manager to keep the limp and languishing Harper government afloat? What price will we have to pay and what is Harper's price? What will he pay to Jack and/or Gilles to retain the Hill and preseve his personal political power?

The only federal party that will be talking to, for and about Canadians now will be the Federal Liberals. All the rest of them will be in back rooms "cutting up the cash" as Lyin' Brian used to say.

Remember when Mulroney was one of Harper's mentors and role models? Harper officially shunned Mulroney politically when he finally had to fulfill his promise to call the inquiry into the Mulroney/Schreiber affair. Speaking of cutting up the cash, Mulroney proved to be pretty good at that all by himself as he admitted in his inquiry testimony.

The next election is inevitable, it is only a matter of time. One thing for sure Harper's time is up! It is time for Canadians to shun Deceivin' Stephen just like he did over the Schreiber Affair and just Canadians did to Lyin' Brian in the 1993 election leaving his majority government with only 2 seats.

With some luck and an informed, activist and engaged citizenry maybe we can get back to some peace, order and good government with a Liberal majority. the only way to get it done is with an election So let's get on with it! Over to you Jack - or Gilles! What do you say?

Cherniak on Politics - Is There Layton/Harper Collusion?

Cherniak on Politics

Here is an interesting set of clips that makes one think. Layton wants a Harper minority with him in the balance of power. Hence his vehemence about siding with Harper to exclude May from the debates.

Canadians were enraged by both of them and they folded like old lawn chairs...but the mutual benefit of feigning a fight is still being played out on the political stage.

Layton is betraying NDP principles and is after personal political power just as much and aggressively as Harper is.

So much for Mr. Social Justice. This strategy by Jack Layton is going to erode his personal credibility and tie his trustworthiness to the same level as Harper...virtually Zero.

The Greens Get to Debate. Harper and Layton Fold. Canadians Win!

Green lights for Elizabeth May! She is the election debates. YES!!!!

The forces of evil (Harper and Layton) have been vanquished…or at least they are humbled and brought to heel...by the power of engaged and enraged citizenship. Good start Canada. Now keep it up for the rest of this unnecessary and expensive election.

This is what can happen when citizens take back the power from the politicians and the patricians. This election is not the private property of the politicians and the political parties. Elections are about citizens deciding what is important going forward and who they dare trust to move us forward in the best way possible.

Good start Canada. Now keep up the good work and let Harper know we don’t buy his phony excuses about why we are paying $400,000,000 for an unnecessary election. It is not appropriate for him to screw us around just because he wants majority and has his heart set on breaking and bankrupting the Liberals...just for his personal political and power hungry purposes...and the hell with democracy.

Tell Duceppe he was right to move off the national stage as he thought to do earlier this term. The option open to him now is not the leadership of the Quebec PQ but to get off the national political stage entirely - and preferably PDQ!

Tell Layton to quit worrying if May is eating his political lunch – she is! Deal with it like a statesman not an henchman. If Layton is so delusional that he thinks we will buy his pretense that he is the Canadian Obama, he doesn’t know Jack…but we Canadians do! Give him a reality check.

Stephane – you need to start getting busier and bolder about explaining what will be the dire consequences to Canada if Harper get to have his way with us...not just a majority government...if any kind of Harper government.

Thoughtful progressive Canadians can't afford to abdicate our responsibility for active political engagement. It is our duty and our obligations to define OUR sense of democracy and not delegate it to Harper.

Cynicism is not an option – unless you want Harper to take over everything and control all of us like he does his caucus. Harper will end up ruling over us like a mini-me combination of George Bush and the Dick known as Cheney.

BTW:
Observation on the stupidest media question the campaign so far…to Steve Harper about what kind of vegetable he would be…if he were one! Most telling political answer given in the campaign so far! Harper’s reply to the stupidest question! He would rather be a fruit…! He is right. He would not be sweet and colourful as he aspires and alleges. He is a fruit, a prickly pear…pure and simple...but without appeal. (sic).

Harper Should Resign and Dion and Layton Should Form a Coalition Government Until October 2009.

Before Dion meets with Harper to discuss cooperation for the pending parliamentary session he should meet with Layton first. A couple of reasons come to mind. First they ought to see if they can work out a collaboration to see if they can run a minority government until the fixed election date of October 2009.

If Harper wants to resign OK that is his business. But that need not automatically trigger a $400m useless election. The Governor General can accept the Harper government resignation because, as Prime Minister, he apparently feels Parliament is dysfunctional.

That is not the case. He has to admit it, given how he brags that he has delivered on his mandate in the past 2+ years that he has been in power. Harper is such an unabashed obfuscater with his self serving mewing about a dysfunctional Parliament. Consider that he has his henchmen draft a 200 page guide for his Caucus instructing them how use cheap political tricks and tactics just to disrupt Parliamentary Committee proceedings. And he now says Parliament is dysfunctional. Well I wonder who is to blame for that.

I like the idea of Harper resigning now. But I don’t think the only option coming out of that decision is an election. It is entirely within the Governor General’s purview and powers, given the minority situation, to consider inviting a coalition of Liberals and New Democrats to try and govern. I think that is a viable alternative for the short term until October 2009.

I think before any behind-closed-doors horse trading goes on with Harper, Dion and Layton ought to look at cutting coalition deal as an alternative to an election that dishonors the new fixed date election law they all just passed.

Such a Dion/Layton chat would also serve another purpose. These two parties ought to see if they can agree on what conditions they would require of Harper for continuing support. They ought to demand that they meet with the PM together so they don’t get inveigled and misled by the PMO in the post meeting patter, positioning and pandering.

If they can’t meet the PM together, they better take a witness and record the conversation too. Of course they should be able to trust the PM, after all he holds the highest and most honourable office in the land. But this is politics and it is always best to be able to verify what was actually said – just so everyone stays honourable.

I think a few reasonable conditions to present to Harper would be an immediate proclamation of his Accountability Act so it becomes binding on his government now. He honours it now more in the breach and that is unacceptable. Why not demand an immediate alternate strategy to provide for the 250,000 daycare spaces the private sector was supposed to provide but has been swept under the carpet. Struggling young families are not making it just with his taxable $100 per month per infant. He promised these day care spaces but has conveniently forgotten young families.

The Mulroney/Schreiber Inquiry has to be started immediately as well and not be a kangaroo court of his design. It needs to be a full fledged public inquiry to help restore public confidence it he Office of the Prime Minister – at a number of levels. The delays are deplorable and are undermining democracy. And while you at it, insist that Harper drops his U.S. clone copyright proposal called Bill C-61 and start over.

The best outcome I see would be for Harper to go the GG and resign and then she appoints a coalition Liberal/NDP government that would serve until the October 2009 - legal election date. They could go into a fall session and use it to undo some of the mess Harper has made like reverse the political interference in the judicial selection process, restore the arts and culture funding cuts and preserve the safe injection sight in Vancouver. There a many more such Harper ideological screw ups then need reversing right now and no need to wait for an election to fix them.

It is time for Harper to go – and he says is thinking of resigning. But an immediate election is unnecessary to achieve that end. The GG can accept his resignation and then look to other parties to form a government. When the next election happens, in October 2009 according to law, and if we end up with another minority, then Dion and Layton will have some experience in a coalition. Perhaps they can continue to replace the Cons then too, if necessary.

The Hero's Behind the Residential School Apology

The Margaret Mead truism that we should never underestimate the ability of a small group of people to change the world, and accept the fact that change is always done that way. This reality is so evident as what caused the Government of Canada apology this past week. The identity and roles the small group of people who were behind this event has come to the fore with this Globe and Mail background story on Canada’s apology for the tragedy of residential schools.

The pressure for the apology comes from sources that are indeed a small group of people, including the former and current Conservative Ministers of Indian Affairs, Jim Prentice and Chuck Strahl along with Metis and Conservative Senator Gerry St. Germain added his considerable voice.

The efforts were trans-partisan as former Liberal MP Gary Merasty had added pressure with his House of Commons motion for an apology that was passed with Conservative support. Then there was the effective effort of the Leader of the NDP, Jack Layton and his personal influence in helping the Prime Minister work through the idea of an apology and its potential positive impact. Prime Minister Harper was persuaded and took a personal interest and is reported to have written most of the apology himself. Prime Minister Harper was also very generous in his praise of Jack Layton’s role in his preamble to the apology.

This is quality governance and good governing at its finest. It is reassuring to see that it can still trump politics. Thanks to all those who made June 11, 2008 a date that will go down in Canadian history. It is hopefully a turning point and a place-marker of where we once again began to be worthy our Canadian mythology of an inclusive, welcoming, caring and compassionate society.

Harper's Hypocrisy is Trying the Patience of Canadians

While waiting for the Alberta Budget speech today, I have to take a few minutes and comment on the Elections Canada initiative to enforce the legislation they are entrusted to enforce. The spending dealings and the positioning of the Harper Conservatives with the RCMP assisted investigation has to be treated judiciously.

The Cons are spinning and framing of these events as merely being a “visit” by the RCMP. This is like suggesting you are leading a parade when there are people with tar and feathers who are actually chasing you out of town. The selective messaging to selective media in secret briefings only undermines the credibility and erodes confidence in the Cons as being of sufficient character to continue governing. The unsubstantiated allegation that others have done this too is the well worn Cons ground saying “that yes we are bad but the other guys are worse.” Canadians are not tricked, amused nor reassured of having an effective and responsible government with such ill-conceived defenses.

The Cons say the facts are agreed upon but I think that is premature until Elections Canada confirms they also agree on the facts. There are some significant fact discrepancies to my mind, that go beyond the spin and positioning of events perpetrated by the Cons. Consider the Cons said they gave Elections Canada everything they asked for. Apparently Elections Canada felt compelled to go to Court and get a search warrant to ensure they got all relevant documents…and they felt it necessary to engage the RCMP in helping to enforcing the search warrant.

Hardly seems like the parties are on the same page, never mind agreeing on the facts. We will never know if the $1.3million of additional advertising spending the Harper Cons that was shuffled from over 6o candidates to support key Quebec candidates had an impact on the election outcome. That is a concern, especially if the conclusion of the Elections Canada investigation finds that the Cons broke Canadian law. However there is very little we Canadians can do about that now. We have to wait until the next election when we can rethink about who we wish to grant our consent to govern us.

The hypocrisy of the Harper Cons is breathtaking and has been for quite some time. They are not as keen on providing Canadians with a good government as much as they are focused on beating down Stephane Dion. We will never know how many millions the Cons spent for party donations on the Dion TV attack ads. This was more Harper Con cleverness because the money was spent outside the Writ period, but when they thought an election was imminent, but those funds would not have to be included in campaign spending limits. Again the Cons show too much cleverness by a half. Now the Cons are abusing their free postal privileges with Canada Post and flooding the country with pamphlets that harp on the Liberals but not providing good government.

The fact they have been unsuccessful at engineering their own defeat has frustrated the, perhaps it is time Mr. Harper called upon the Governor General and tender his resignation. I expect Dion and Layton would not want to try a coalition government and Mr. Harper would have his “dream” election immediately.

Federal Leaders All Found Wanting and Out of Touch With Concerns of Canadians

What is going to happen to Harper’s Quebec strategy now that he can’t talk to Mulroney – the mastermind behind it all?

Has this Calgary Conservative captured the hearts and minds of the Quebec people to the extent that without Mulroney pulling his strings he will still have support in Quebec? Will they still believe Harper when he says he understands the Quebec Nation in the same way they do? Will they still believe that Harper really means it and get it without the Mulroney influence to reassure the soft nationalist support in Quebec?

Once thing for sure there is not going to be a federal election coming anytime soon under these circumstances. With the emerging reality of another public inquiry involving another Quebec based prime minister Dion will gladly wait out the time for this issue to mature before he will want an election. Quebec is a battle ground in the next election. Is the Harper support in Quebec a mile wide and deep as a dime? Without the reassurance of a continuing Mulroney influence on Harper - will the Quebec support last?

Besides the polls show Canadians are less than enamoured in any meaningful way with any of the federal parties and their leaders right now. My reading is the public sees Dion as very beige, Harper is very grey and Layton is too red. None of them are known commodities and some are seen as less trustworthy than others. Be it the Adscam overhang on the Dion Liberals, the Bush-league conniving tendencies of Harper or the ill-defined opportunistic political and policy ploys of Layton. What Canadians want is someone who is truly and comprehensively green in economic and ecological terms.

The successful new political leaders will be someone with an integrated green agenda that has to be able to embrace and articulate issues of environmental protection and sustainability as well as responsible economic growth and be able to clarify the societal impacts all at the same time with authority and authenticity. Not that tough to do right?

No media-trained, pre-packaged, shrink-wrapped, messaging mouthpiece with a patina of manufactured charisma will cut it anymore. And now we see we have to revisit the recurring issue of honesty, integrity, accountability and transparency in our political culture too.

How much of this crap can the long suffering citizens of Canada take - and how long will they tolerate it?

Does Harper Have Any Sense of Humour?

Jane Taber of CTV and the Globe and Mail notes in her Hot and Not column this morning that Prime Minister Steve is rumored NOT to be attending the annual Press Gallery Bun Throw…AND in the PMO best Faux Fascists form, he has ordered all his Cabinet Member NOT to attend either.

Guess what all the dinner jokes are going to be about now. Guess which political leader will bear the brunt of the most barbs. Expect CPAC to tape it and rerun it more times than the Cons ever did for their paid for negative TV ads on Dion. No doubt the MSM media will run clips and the caricatures too.

Harper has been PM about 2 years now. He should know by now the “Parable of the Press” is that they giveth and they taketh away. The Cons being a total no-show at the Press Gallery Dinner is definitely Not Hot Steve. The Gallery will be sure to get even if you don't come out and play with them.

Besides a bit of humorous self-deprecation about now would be good for The Steve don’t you think? He may need it when Jack Layton sends him a reminder since their by-election win in Quebec the Dippers now have enough votes to save or cave the Cons. I wonder what Jack wants to see in the upcoming Throne Speech. I wonder if Harper shares my curiosity?

Quebec By-Elections Herald Change and Uncertainty

What Happened in Quebec Politics Yesterday?

I watched the by-elections last night and had to wonder what is going on in Quebec. For the most part I think it is healthy for democracy and could be good for Canada. The reality is these events were by-elections. Personality of candidates often means more in those events than party or policy or leadership. There is a reality of the timing of these by-elections too. The current minority government could be brought down any given day the House is sitting and now the NDP alone can save the Conservative’s bacon in a confidence vote. So the consequences of a local constituency “getting it wrong” are not too damaging. So why not send the powers that be a message?

Enough context (excuses???) Here are the messages I got from the result in Quebec last night. Dion and Duceppe are damaged and personally deflated by these results. Layton is the big leadership winner by making a breakthrough in Quebec for the first time and very decisively.

The personality issue played well for the NDP with Mulcair but he also had some fascinating political manoeuvrings at play in his victory too. He attracted a large segment of the Bloc voters (Ouch Mon. Duceppe – that has to hurt) and what were those Bloc voters saying? Were they ticked with the Bloc and wanted to “block” the Liberals. Don’t forget Mulcair was a Charest Liberal Cabinet Minister who resigned and turned Dipper. His election as a Dipper sends a message to the federal and provincial Liberals and bruises them both badly.

The Conservative win by Lebel in Roberval was stunning. Not only was the margin of victory impressive it was in separatist country. This Conservative win was by a guy who, a few short months ago, was also a Bloc party member and presumably a separatist himself. Did Mr. Harper’s Quebec Nation sentiments trump his stance on Afghanistan? One can’t help wonder if Lebel is eventually going to be to Harper what Bouchard was to Mulroney.

Duceppe had something to smile about winning St Hyacinthe “comfortably” and over a Conservative…who will no doubt be breathing down the Bloc’s neck come the next election.

Dion is the sacrificial lamb in all of this. Quebec is still smarting and clearly unforgiving over Adscam and about being “played” by the cynical Chrétien government. It was the Chrétien government who tried to buy Quebec’s loyalty with flags and banners scam perpetrated by a Quebec Liberal party arm that was infected with culture of fraud and favouritism.

Quebecers were insulted and still unforgiving of the Liberals and Dion has to wear it. Such is the reality of the Liberals in Quebec...and for a while yet obviously. And while all this is not technically not Dion’s doing or fault – as the leader of the Liberal Party of Canada he has to carry that baggage. It is proving to be a heavy load. That past party baggage is not a new phenomenon nor unique to Dion. Harper had to live through the disaster that was Stockwell Day when he took over the Conservative Party and on his way to 24 Sussex Drive. All this is as it should be.

The larger question is what doe this mean for Quebec politics and how does that impact Canada? Quebec is no longer a fight between Liberal federalists and Bloc Separatists. Quebec’s feelings and political aspirations are much more unclear, uncertain and consequential for Canada since yesterday. Is the Quebec-Canada Cold War over? If so what political relationship within Quebec and between Quebec and Canada fills the vacuum? Is the Rest of Canada ready to deal with the Harper declaration of the Quebec Nation as a reality? Is Mr Harper the new voice for Quebec aspirations or just a means to an end in Quebec – that end being power or at least access to it?

Will Harper “play” Quebec or will Quebec “play” Harper for power and which “player” wins in such a power-game? What happens to the Harper’s western political base in either event? Wasn’t this the kind of Quebec Problem that Mulroney dealt with in his efforts around Charlottetown and Meech Lake? Wasn’t all of that the stuff that lead to the formation of the Reform Party in the first place? Interesting time ahead – interesting times indeed.

In summary – here is how I saw last nights by-elections. Duceppe had some cold water poured on his Quebec sovereigntist torch last night. Dion’s Quebec torch was all but blown out last night by winds of change in those three by-elections. Both of these parties and their leaders were sent strong and angry messages by the Quebec people last night.

Layton has found a small candle in the Quebec winds of change and will have to tend it carefully if he is to keep it lit. One candle does not make a torch…but it can light one.

And as for Mr. Harper, well he was seen as the new and emerging de facto torch carrier for Quebec’s national aspirations. Last night Harper was handed the Quebec Nation’s torch and we shall see how high and well he carries it…or if it ends up burning him and his political carrier in the process.

Bon chance Prime Minister Harper as you move to bring Quebec into nationhood and lead the rest of Canada into a better understanding and an abiding acceptance those unique francophone aspirations. The eyes of an uncertain and a hesitant nation(s) are all upon you.

Who Can We Trust on Climate Change

UPDATE APRIL 30 - LINK BYFIELD of the Citizens Centre for Freedom and Democracy says "Between Harper and Stelmach, We have been Sold Out on Climate Change.

UPDATE APRIL 28 - AL GORE SAYS HARPER GREEN PLAN IS A FRAUD INTENDED TO MISLEAD CANADIANS!

I was going to do a post today on who are we to believe on the environment. The mainline federal political parties all have some serious baggage but we need to think about the current changes we need to make to ensure our future as one of the survive species on this planet. Who in the current political culture is into that frame of mind? The Greens and Elizabeth May are for sure and Dion as a person is into this too obviously. I am not sure about Dion's party position though. Harper is not credible and Layton seems to be into the environment as a lever for policy influence more than an genuine engagement.

Instead of doing a post myself I ran across a really insightful and informative post on this topic. It comes from the blog Democratic Space. It is a worth a read.

The polls are showing we are so volatile as a public that they are useless in accurately predicting anything about our collective political future. In the meantime, without the silly seasons elections create, the conversations on climate change still have to happen. They have to happen in different context and the content has to change too. We have to engage more citizens and become broader and more inclusive and more informed on these issues.

Politics does not seem to be capable of ding this for us at this time. Too bad because all the decisions on these issues are going to be political at the end of the day.

Harper Still Falls Short - According to SES Poll Results Today.

SES has just released a new poll. Nice to see a poll that relates to pre-budget and post-budget periods with sufficient time lapse to neutralize the impact of the media coverage bounce. Also nice to see nothing much has changed since Jan 2006 election results with respect to the relative position of the parties. Decima is a bit different and the Cons love to jump on one result and call it a trend. All other recent polling shows about the same-old-same-old results as in Jan 2006 and this SES poll.

At least Dion has maintained the Liberal position and the Cons are still unable to capitalize on the power inherent in holding office. In fact they are tied within the polls margin of error, if you want to take an optimistic view. Harper only wants an election if he can appear to be pushed into it. Give us a year more to see who Dion is and capable of, the same goes for what May stands for and if Layton can escape the gravitational pull of the NDP past.

The Cons have been able to buy an 8 point bounce in Quebec for about $4.0B in booty if you include the aerospace $900M announced this week. How long will that last with Charest saying it is not enough and a Quebec minority meaning they will be in constant campaign mode there.

The other regional results are telling too. The other key battle front is Ontario which sees the NDP and Greens eroding support and going from the highest uncommitted vote to the average...all of this repositioned support is split between the two major parties who are now neck and neck.

The West is most interesting where the Liberals have a 5 positive point bounce and the Cons are static and only 6 points up on the Libs. What is going on there? The West got nothing from the budget except dismay that Harper has turned into the kind of Quebec pandering politician that spawned the Reform Party in the first place. How much can he alienate his base before he starts to see them staying home or sending a harsher message over his CPC leadership status? That grumpiness about Harper is just below the surface...expect Ted and Link Byfield to be the lightening rods to hunt Harper down on this front.

Poor old Atlantic Canada can't quite grasp the changes or is it that they have the best contrarian perspective on what things are happening? They keep the Cons at bay with tepid but no change in support and they reduce Lib support giving it to the NCP and the Greens and then have over a 50% bounce in uncommitted voters at 11%. For those Maritimers who can't figure out if Harper is going to "punch or bore" them - relax - he is going to do both to you. You count even less in Harper's sense of Canada than the West does, meaning he does not understand nor does he care much about your wants and wishes as Canadians.

In conclusion nothing has changed in the minds of Canadians in the past 15 months as to keeping a minority government or if it is time for a new majority...but 64% of Canadians in an Angus Reid study says now it not the time for an election.

One big shift we have seen happen since Harper took power. We have a Prime Minister who has demonstrated very forcefully that he and his PMO is the absolute controlling factor in his Party. We also can see that his agenda is to achieve personal political power over the country with Harper as Canada's Cromwell. He will do this at any cost, be it cash, conflict, conspiracy or our national sense of social cohesion.

An Ipsos Reid study recently indicated 65% of Canadians felt they did no know Stephen Harper as a person...in other words who he is and what he believes in and stands for. This is after over 5 years of seeing him in federal political leadership roles. Well in the past 6 months we have seen his tactics from broken campaign promises (Income Trusts and Equalization for example) to hypocrisy on others (wait time guarantees to disregarding the need for child care spaces), to buying Quebec support (the Budget) and a bullying political personality (personal attack ads to cheap-shot Taliban supporter accusations) in how he tries to marginalize and intimidate people.

We can now tell much more about who Harper really is. To my mind he is much scarier than we thought than even in the 2004 election. The key questions for Canadians about Harper is do we trust him? Does he "get the country" and does he have a serious grasp of the critical issues of our time - like the environment? Can we rely on him to keep his promises? Given his obvious hunger for power do we feel he is the right "fit" to be our Prime Minister with a majority government given all the discretion and power of that office? Does he have the kind of character qualities we want to see govern us as a modern mature citizen based democracy?

These polls show Canadians have not yet made up their minds on how they would answer these questions. I have. My answer is no on all counts.

Ten Reasons Why We Should Not Have a Spring Election

There are many reason why we should not have a spring election. Here are my top 10!

1 There are too many pieces of Harper’s 5 point plan in still in the legislative process. They have not had the time to get passed into law like his crime and punishment, health care wait times, accountability and the policy flux around child care spaces. He had a modest agenda and has not had time to deliver. We will have wasted the past year if we have an early election.

2 None of the parties are really ready to go because they are still all finding their policy footing. The Cons have the money, even though they are pitching the party faithful for emergency funds for a pending election. The Cons are currently so busy reintroducing and repackaging prior Liberal polices they need time to convince Canadians they are still the “new” government and not just a lighter version of an old-style Liberal government.

3 Candidate selection is in process for all parties and there is plenty of posturing, including candidate colleges in some parties. But thoughtful and quality candidates need more time to consider running or not. Rushing this process ensures we will have less than optimum candidates offering their “talents” to serve in governance.

4 Party leaders are all ill-defined in the public mind. Polls show we don’t really know nor do we have a clear sense of who Harper is after 5 years back in leadership in the federal political scene. His recent election promises breaches and his epiphany over the environment from a climate change denier to becoming the new super hero “Eco-man” is causing even more uncertainty as to who he really is. Dion is a known environmentalist and federalist but an unknown as a leader even within his party. Layton is seen as an issues broker but undefined and unfocused and still an unknown as a political leader. May is too new and untested and leading a party that is more unknown than even she is but that will change when the next election happens.

5 The national political agenda is too vague and amorphous so we don’t know what this election would be about other than Harper trying to get a majority. Polls are telling us Canadians are unclear if they even want a majority government, of any stripe, as yet. The environment has turned into a lightening rod and all parties have the poll results that have them crowding to the middle ground and bumping into each other like a Keystone Kops comedy. None of this is helping to gain the confidence of the Canadian voter for any political party right now.

6 Volatility and uncertainty in the mind of the voters is apparent in the polls as of late. Except for about 65% saying they do not want spring election and the environment as the #1 issue, nothing is certain or even ascertainable as to exactly what the public wants of its government today. Canadians are not yet over their “test drive” attitude towards the Cons from the last election. In 2006 Canadians elected a minority government on purpose and those purposes have not yet been served. Anyone who causes the election for superficial reasons will be punished in the polls. Any spring election will not be perceived as being about the wishes of the people but about the egos and thirst for power of politicians.

7 We need time to see if Harper will be serious about his budget promises and just how authentic he is about his conversion and version of vert-nouveau. Announcements of program funding and rhetorical political promises are one thing, action and outcomes are entirely different matters

8 We need to wait for some provincial elections to happen and the implications they hold for the future nation to be understood. For sure we will need time to digest the Quebec election outcomes and especially what a minority government in Quebec might mean. We need to understand those implications and even perhaps wait for the elections in Ontario and Alberta to go first because they would be helpful to set some political agendas for the nation and give the federal scene time to focus and define.

9 There needs to be time for the actual outcomes of Harper’s promise to deal with the perception within Quebec of a Fiscal Imbalance and how he will deal with it in fact, and not fiction. We need time to see the real Stephen Harper and his actual execution of policies around equalization and per capita transfers to provinces and how he will actually proceed to decentralize governance to favour the provinces.

10 Finally why are we wasting the time and money for an election when there is no pressing need and no clear issue demanding a mandated resolution? We have yet to see significant real results from Harper and that is not because he has not been trying. He has.

We as Canadians need more time for Harper to prove himself to be worthy of the al powerful position of Prime Minister in a majority government. He wants to afford us less time for that to happen and that is why he is pressing for an early but pointless and likely inconclusive election this spring.

Harper is worried that over time this summer, Dion will become better known, more defined and respected as a political leader. Layton has the same fears over the emergence of May and the Greens who might eat even more of his lunch with more time to become known, defined and respected.

Dion and May need more time to become established and organized so they will not be anxious to go early and they will hold their noses and vote for the budget. Besides they can benefit by seeing the Harper budget and green plan and taking time to comment on the merits and question the Cons actual commitment to the policies they propose. Past actions tend to show the Cons are just that; con-artists on policy and political promises.

Consequently, I expect Harper will try to engineer his demise this spring and if Layton is nervous enough about the Greens and May he will oblige the Cons and force an election. It will not be on the Cons budget but rather on their environment proposals that Layton will see the reason to cause an election.

Harper Gets to Surge in a Poll...Bush is Still Waiting to Surge in Iraq

A BANNER HEADLINE IN THE GLOBE AND MAIL PROCLAIMS A TORY “SURGE.” Is anyone still surprised that Harper’s political hero and mentor is George W. Bush? Now Harper is intent on outdoing the “Dubya” by having his “surge” first… while the “Decider” is still waiting for his “permission slip” from Congress so he can have his Iraq troop “surge.”

This new Globe and Mail / CTV poll is just daring Steve to call an election. Let’s look at the ploy. The poll of 1000 Canadians done between Dec 15-18, with 3.1% margin of error, shows Harper has 36% versus Dion’s 18% indicating he “would do the best job of Prime Minister.” Layton is a respectable 16% but the real story is 23% undecided. Let’s put some context on this support.

Harper has been a federal party leader for almost 5 years, since March 20, 2002 when he took over the Alliance Party in a decisive first ballot victory from Stockwell Day. He has been Prime Minister for over a year in some of Canada’s most uncertain times. When this poll was taken Dion has been the leader of the Liberal Party, winning on the fourth ballot for a grand total of 75 DAYS, including political hothouse times of Christmas and New Year.

Smilin’ Jack Layton has been the NDP leader more than four years again winning with a first ballot victory on January 25, 2003. He is Mr. Charismatic winning that most meaningless of political questions at 36% nosing out Harper by a point. Harper has to be asking himself, “What is a poor economist to do to after five years to make people warm to him?”

The recent performances of the Liberal party under Chrétien and Martin have not been confidence builders by any stretch. The 36% support for Harper is amazing…amazingly low under the circumstance. The 18% for Dion is also amazing…amazing he has that much support at all when he is virtually unknown, leading a disgraced party who is still in the political penalty box in the mind of Canadians.

On name recognition alone one would expect Harper to be a big winner…”the devil you know.” The most important number on this question…again the 23% undecided. That should scare the “beejeezez” out of Harper and give Dion a glimmer of hope. Remember campaigns matter.

The headline reporting on this poll is a pure ploy to bait Harper into an ego driven early election. I say this because the headline is a misdirection of the poll results as a whole. The real story was on A7 of the Globe and Mail. Taking the 3.1% margin of error in context the critical political questions show a statistical tie.

The key question of “…how would you vote today” has the Cons (34) and Libs (29) still in a statistical tie. “Who do you identify with the most,” Cons (27) Libs (28) another statistical tie. The statistical tie story is the same on questions of who would govern best, manage the economy best and deal with the environment and global warming. About 25% of Canadians are undecided on each of these questions…that is the real story here.

Harper’s five years in leadership politics and focus on only five political promises in the past year has given him the clear edge to where 50% see him as having “…the clearest vision of where HE (emphasis added) want to take the country. He is also seen as the most decisive by 53% of respondents.

The real question these numbers beg is do we share HIS vision of the country…it is not decided yet – just look at the size of the undecided voters. Being decisive is not helpful if we don’t trust you or your decisions or your agenda. What if the voter’s true sense of Harper is one of a man often wrong but never in doubt! That will not win an election.

As for the personal characteristics in this poll, it is old news. We have already seen them from Nik Nanos at SES in his February 12 poll. Read my post of Feb 12 for my take on it then too.

Leadership Report Card Poll Shows Harper is Growing into the Job

So some more poll results are out that are adding to the fact that the predominant mood out there is confusion. And these results just add to the confusion so far as I can tell.

The SES Research National Survey poll today based on1002 participants between Feb2-8 on the “Leadership Report Card.” notes that Stephen Harper has “significantly improved” his leadership image in the year plus a bit since he was elected. His trustworthiness is up 14 points to 35%, his competence rating is up 17 points to 41% and the impression of his vision for the country is up 14 points to 39%. Clearly Stephen Harper is showing signs of growing into the job of Prime Minister over the past year. The January 2006 comparative results had only 400 participants so the margin of error was higher.

The Layton numbers have to be sobering with a 7% decline in trustworthiness to 18%, a 4% decline in competence to 13% and a 2% decline to 16% for having an acceptable vision of the country.

The poll numbers on Dion and May are pretty meaningless in terms of personal assessments. This is because of the party leadership changes that happened in November and December. The polls is asking the same questions about a time frame that actually had other people in the party leadership and only having a few weeks to become known, including the Christmas period. When we ask about trustworthiness during a time of transition from a Martin/Dion and a Harris/May change in leadership, what is it people are actually saying in their replies? Who is it that they are really speaking about in terms of trust, competence and vision when they answer?

It appears that Harper is growing into the job and Layton is growing out of one. Not much else can be interpreted from this poll and lots can be speculated. Speculation has like to add to any real meaning and understanding.

The Angus Reid poll out today on “Harper and Dion Who is the Greenest?” has more insight into what is on the minds and what is meaningful to voters. I will do a separate post on this poll shortly.

Harper and Charest Meet the Press Tomorrow!

I see Prime Minister Harper has announced on this Sunday afternoon that he is making an announcement at 10:30 EST tomorrow with Quebec's Prime Minister Jean Charest in Sherbrooke Quebec and then he is off to Trois-Rivieres to "deliver remarks" at 6 pm EST. That is all very elucidating don't you think?

Can’t imagine what all that fuss could possibly be about but it is "open to the media" so it must be of substance. (sic) The unspoken subtext will be the trade off deal has been made to cement an agreement Harper and Charest have come to on election timing in Quebec. Not doubt Harper wants Quebec to go to the polls first. That way he doesn’t have to make promises to Quebec in an earlier federal election that would alienate his base amongst Alberta Reformer/Alliance types and contain promises he would have to deliver on - and be held accountable for in a subsequent Quebec election.

It looks like even the serendipity is fully planned in advance in a Stephen Harper world. I smell a spring election at Harper's behest. He is engineering his defeat...even the Harper rhetoric is that the opposition "will have to account for all the unpassed Bills left on the order paper" if they bring down his government now. That reality sure did not stop him when he defeated Martin and forced a winter election. Lots of Bills of substance have been lost in the swirling winds of time when Harper saw the advantage and forced an election.

It could be the Budget and the debate on it that ticks off the opposition enough to bring down this government. NDP leader Layton is not getting much by way of "atta boys" trying to do to the Harper's budget that he did to Martin's so he is likely ready to pull the pin too. Only the Bloc is likely to be truly hesitant...but then who cares about that.

No inside information on this, I am just reading the entrails of the political rhetoric and the pandering that is going on. I am starting to smell an election.

Harper and Layton: Alliance or Dalliance?

Alliances and Dalliances
I love the political backroom gavotte going on between the Cons and the Dippers over their principles and which ones they will trade offs or defer between getting the budget passed and getting serious changed around environment policy.

We will have to wait and see if this is an alliance or a dalliance.

On the other hand can we soon expect another couple take to the political dance floor? Will the Libs and the Greens embrace in a struggle to see which one will actually lead in the environment agenda? I don't expect May to give up the "lead" in their dance or on the issues to Dion. She will no doubt make him work harder and look even better on the issues before the music stops and the election is called.

Citizens have yet to decide who they will actually trust and respect on the environment and climate change issues. Will it be Scowling Steve and/or Smiling Jack? Such an interesting and intense couple. Is the winner going to be Studious Stephane and/or Effervescent Elizabeth? They are earnest and energetic for sure...effective - well that is still an open question

That leaves Jilted Gilles looking for someone - anyone to pay attention to him. He faces the music alone and will come to realize that the environment trumps his aspirations for more equalization money as the dominant political issue - even in Quebec.

More on Manning's Musings:
I see Jeffery Simpson in the Globe and Mail today picked up on the Manning Op-Ed piece I posted on last Monday. He mentions the “attack ads” and the ironic timing of his message that we citizens should be showing our lack of tolerance for extremism and then the Cons launch their attack ads outside of the election cycle.

Simpson calls the ads “crude and rude.” He might soon be adding to the rhyme scheme and include “sued.” Some commentary is around that the Cons “tacky ad” content misused copyright material that is the property of others. That would be an interesting development if the content is challenged over copyright. I can see the blogosphere quips about the Cons misuse of "intellectual" property in the context of the attack ads.

Another One Bites the Dust:
So Johanne Gelinas, the Environment Commissioner has been “replaced” because her report last September criticized the former Lib and the current Cons over in actions on climate change. The reason for her departure is that her report smacked of advocacy instead of auditing. I didn’t know she reported to the Auditor General and apparently the two did not see eye to eye on things. Too bad. She was a breath of fresh air in her frankness.

Perhaps this role needs to be a separate office that reports directly to Parliament. Then it could be independent enough to audit and advocate by making recommendations for performance changes and improvements in how environment policy is being implemented.

We have seen the Chief Electoral Officer leave under a cloud of interference and now the Environment Commissioner is bounced. I hope there was no political interference in either decision. The controlling nature of the PMO is not reassuring in that regard. Two incidents do not make a trend but you have to wonder if there a pattern forming here and how much of a chill this puts on the senior bureaucracy.

Eco-pets:
I see the Cons are making merry in Question Period over the name of Dion’s dog, “Kyoto.” Perhaps Harper should get a pet Polar Bear and name him “Endangered.” That would symbolically show Steve's soft side and just how much he cares about climate change too.

Harper Cabinet Rates a 50/50 Approval in Recent Poll

Nicole Martel has an interesting post on an Angus Reid poll on the approval ratings of certain Harper Cabinet Ministers. There net positives are for Harper, Flaherty and McKay…Prentice is not seen in any of the data reports I looked at. Jim is way too far below the radar – working hard and effectively at the coal face but nobody knows it. Everyone else looks pretty bland or just plain bad.

The moral of the story is they are mostly a 50/50 crowd with lots of “Don’t Knows” as you will see when you click the link to the Toronto Star story. This proves the nation is essentially "test driving" the Harper government to see if we what to buy his form of government. Based on these results if is pretty obvious that we are not yet impressed nor particularly dismayed with the performance either. The Harper Cons have not yet done anything to really significnat make a mark that will win our hearts and minds over the past year. The fact that al other recent polls say Harper and Dion are statisticaly tied has to be a discomforting fact for "Steve."

Nicole also directs us to the other Toronto Star piece where the Harper Cons political rhetoric is matched against the factual reality of the Liberals and Dion. I have been waiting and hoping someone would do this comparison. The various examples used are a classic rebuttal of the issues framing done by the Harper Message Machine. He and his goverment is proven to be very disingenuous in their misrepresentations about the Liberals and Dion, and I am being generous in my assessment when I say that.

The Star story is also a very effective rebuttal of the pervasive MSM culture of take things said by politicians that are purely political at face value. We see this lack of background research and fact checking is just much too prevalent in political reporting today. It all gets repeated in other media and gossip gets over reported as "news" and then the misinformation become the "reality." We mere mortals have to wonder if anyone cares about accuracy and truth in politics today.

Anyway, with polling "approval" numbers like theses, Harper better hope Layton doesn’t ask for too much in the forthcoming Budget. There is nothing in these polling approval levels to foster any confidence by, for and about a Harper victory in an election in the near future. Remember also that campaigns matter and yesterday is not a precursor of tomorrow any more.

At 50/50 Harper's fortunes could go either way...but clearly the Cons are not on solid enough ground to want an election anytime soon. With every day that passes the environment embeds as more of an issue and Layton has to wonder about May's momentum and Harper has to worry about Dion getting better known and more acceptable as a possible alternative for the next Prime Minister.

Good for the Star for reporting on the reality over the rhetoric. Thx Nicole for bringing it to our attention. I had $10 bucks riding on a spring election. I think I may have to cough up the cash and eat some crow in a couple of months.

Dion Says the Greens Should be in the TV Debates

The Globe and Mail's Eric Reguly and Stephane Dion are calling for the Green Party to be included in any next federal election television debates. The timing of such an election is ironically within the control of the NDP based on how the seats shake down with floor crossings and caucus expulsions. My expectation is Jack Layton would be happier if the Greens were left in the Green Room and not on the stage.

The television broadcasters seem to think they should have the control over this aspect of our democracy. They get to say that if a Party does not have a seat in Parliament then you don’t get to participate in the debates. Who made them the boss of the citizens?

The environment is the #1 issue in the country right now and the Greens are the Party most identified with that issue. Besides their Leader Elizabeth May ran a very respectful second place in a recent southern Ontario By-election. She beat the Conservatives and the NDP candidates with a healthy 25% of the vote.

May and her Party are a significant and proven political force to be reckoned with. Seats should not be the only test for inclusion. Performance in voter support plays a role here too. It is no problem to include the Bloc in the debates, and their primary goal is to split up the country for God’s sake.

So regardless of your partisan politics, support the Greens being included in the debates. There is an on line petition on the Green's site. Show your support and sign up. We can show the broadcasters that they must reconsider this policy and include the Greens notwithstanding the lack of a seat.

LET'S DRAFT GARTH TURNER!
If this petition isn’t enough, let’s start a movement to draft the Independent MP, Garth Turner to join the Greens. This would be for the sole purpose of giving them a seat to “qualify” under the broadcaster’s silly rules to be for included in the debates.

I think that would be a refreshing exercise of a strategic realpolitik power play by a Turner and May tag team. It would be a perfect response to the shallow thinking of the opponents of the Greens being included. I would applaud Turner if he were to decide to stay Green or if he chooses to resign from the Greens immediately after their participation in the debates were confirmed.

I am serious about a draft Turner effort if it becomes necessary. Some times you have to fight absurdity with absurdity. It is nice when you can do it with creativity and class. But in the meantime sign the petition and let’s be sure to let the powers that be know the Canadian democracy belongs to the citizens, not the broadcasters or the politicians.

What is Stephen Harper Thinking?

Nicole Martel is asking why Stephen Harper is doing so much to alienate his base in western Canada. First the income trust betrayal and now he is looking at non-renewable energy revenues as part of the calculation for equalization payment calculations, as a pander to Quebec. Saskatchewan and Alberta are upset as is Newfoundland and Danny Williams is speaking in Fort McMurray on January 27th. I am sure he will have some choice words for Prime Minister Harper on equalization formulas.

Top that off with rumours of a $1.4 Billion payment to Quebec to restore the Harper Cons position there. It won’t hurt Jean Charest either, which is a good thing with his pending election.

Wasn’t it just this kind of pandering to Quebec politics that started the Reform Party in the first place? Wasn’t Stephen Harper around then?

Then the recent Globe and Mail poll done by The Strategic Counsel is being parsed in the media for its meaning with a plethora of preconceived notions. The fact that Dion is in a horse race with Harper so shortly after a leadership change and so close to Adscam is amazing. Harper has dropped from 49% to 41% support in the west in the year since the last election. He is down 10% in Quebec from 25% to 15%. In Ontario Harper is at 32% trailing Dion at 45%.

The next election is being touted as far off because the tight race between the major parties. Lets face it the next election will be called when Jack Layton decides he is ready because he has the votes to sustain or bury Harper. So we have to watch just how much and how fast the Greens are closing in on him too.

In Ontario the Greens are up to 9% and the NDP are down to 15% since the last election. Enough said! Jack Layton can hear the Birkenstock footsteps right behind him and they are getting louder. That trend will determine the next election based as much on Jack Layton’s fear factor over Elizabeth May’s Green Party emergence.

Old line Reform/Alliance types must be shaking their heads and asking themselves “Stephen – what are you doing?”