Alberta Debate Results: #1 Stelmach, #2 Don't Know, #3 Taft

The impact of the Alberta election debate is the subject of a CanWest poll published today. My blog post for the CBC YouCast site said the debate changed nothing for the undecided voter but the leaders all reaffirmed and reassured their bases. The poll results confirm this.

Pundits and MSM see political debates as contests between party leaders so, by definition, there has to be a winner and a loser. When there isn’t a clear result the chattering class suffer from a kind of political cognitive dissonance because can’t resolve the values conflict that demands a winner and a loser. I say let them suffer.

Looking at the poll results, ¾ of viewers did not change their minds and 23% are still undecided with about 10 days to go. The numbers say Stelmach “won” for 30.1% of the respondents and 34.6% say they are voting for him. Taft is perceived to have “won” by 23.3% and 23.1% are voting for him. This is showing the core vote for each party is pleased with their guy’s performance – nothing more can be read into this poll result. The NDP and WAP results are inconsequential but there are some interesting strategic implications around them for the two main parties.

The WAP’s Hinman confirmed his fiscal fundamentalist right-wing agenda. His challenge was to reassure the newly merged WAP members that they are a political force and not be discouraged with the President’s resignation and the poor showing on candidate recruitment. Hinman has to sustain his 70K popular vote from the 2004 election and get re-elect to succeed.

The NDP has to reassure core supporters not to vote Liberal for strategic purposes to defeat the PCs. He has done that by taking on both Stelmach and Taft. He has positioned Taft as pretty much a PCer in a red sweater. His core is reassured that an NDP vote is not a waste and they should return to the role of keeping both the Libs and the PC honest. He has to at least retain seats and sustain popular vote levels to succeed.

Taft has performed well this election campaign but the debate is where he will have peaked and is now plateaued. He will sustain this support level to and through Election Day. That potentially means more seats but not government. With no clear ballot question and a considerable but seemingly disengaged undecided segment, the big momentum change the Libs need to form government is not happening. His attempt to position Stelmach as same old…same old has not gelled because Stelmach has proven to be an agent of significant change in the past 14 months.

As for Stelmach, he has kept his true Progressive Conservative party core. With Hinman’s debate performance, the far right voters that abandoned Klein in 2004, are not coming back. That is a god thing because it clearly puts to bed that Stelmach is just a continuation of the past government. Stelmach has recognized that Albertans what change and elections are always about change and choices. The results coming out of this debate and the campaign so far shows Albertans want change but they are coming to realize Ed Stelmach is the kind a prudent, thoughtful and careful change agent we need in these time of turmoil.

It looks like Albertans are prepared to give him a real shot as a change agent and to give him more time to get the needed changes done right, not just rapidly. This time he will have his own team and his own mandate. He will also face a much higher expectation level for deliver on his promises and to stay true to his stated values than any other Premier of Alberta in history.

Thoughts and Theories on the Alberta Leader's Debate

For my take on the Election 2008 Debate (and Daveberta’s too) go to the CBC.ca site and click on Youcast to get the skinny. Davebeta and I are taping a piece for CBC TV tomorrow morning too. Not sure when it will air but I will let you know.

Is George Read What Albertans Are Looking For in Their Next Leader?

Have the personal qualities and capabilities Albertans want to see in their political leaders changed in 5 years? When political leadership was not an issue in Alberta, way back in May 2003, Cambridge Strategies did a survey of the preference drivers of Albertans on the “next leader.”

We asked Albertans about their preferences in the following areas:

Preparation – what kind of experience should he/she have?
Vision – where did we want them to focus Alberta’s future?
Education – how much education was needed to do the job?
Personal Qualities – which kind of character qualities were preferred?
Communications Skills – What communications skills and approach was preferred?
Change Agent – what approach to change should the next leader undertake?

We found some attributes to be positive as strengths to build on. Others were negatives that candidates should avoid or fix if they fit the personal profile of any Alberta leadership aspirant.

So here is what Albertans said then was the most desirable/optimal kind of leader. They must have life and business experience with a minimum of a university degree. They should be advancing new ideas and be able to bring clarity to complex issues. They had to exhibit integrity and honesty or be experienced and knowledgeable. Their vision for Alberta has to be expansive and focused on Alberta future in a world view, or at the very least, Alberta’s role in Canada.

Albertans were looking for a fresh approach to leadership in those days. Not much has changed I would say. The optimistic Albertan wanted more of Alberta’s potential to be realized. They were keen to have a leader who advanced new ideas and supported them but not one who was seen as content to follow the lead of others.

The pessimistic Albertans want the focus on solving our problems first. They worried about Alberta’s place in Canada, they wanted someone with knowledge and experience and good a listening and understanding issues. But who would also put out new ideas and champion causes.

The least optimal/negative attributes for leadership in Alberta was a leader who focused on Alberta, had only a high school education, is “media savvy” and is assertive and self confident. Looks like Ralph Klein would not win if the voter decisions were based solely on these negative perceptions of leadership. Elections have a life of their own and while PC supporter stayed home and other left for the Alliance, Ralph won again in Novemver 2004, but he dropped quite a few seats that election and the party sent him off to retirement in April of 2006.

A word of caution to today’s Alberta Liberal leader, Dr. Taft, an academic background was a big negative for leadership. It could be worse Kevin; the other preparation negative was a legal background. Good thing you didn’t teach law while at the University.

One overlooked leader who fits this set of leadership attributes bill pretty well today is George Read of the Albert Green Party. For education; he has a PoliSci degree, Preparation; business experience working in the furniture manufacturing business and as a tree planter as a summer job while going to school so he knows something about the forestry industry. As for Alberta role in Canada, well he was the National Campaign Manager for the federal Greens in the 2005-06 federal election. As for championing new ideas, how about his work with the Environmentally Responsible Livestock Operators and the Western Sky Land Trust for innovations.

All in all not a bad fit. Too bad he is not part of the debate tonight so Albertans could look him in the eye and judge for themselves his personal qualities of honesty and integrity. we could see for ourselves just how he exercises his communications skills and works under pressure. But that opportunity will not be available to Albertans in this debate tonight and that is a Pity!

Stelmach Responds to the Misleading Attack Ads...Good For Him!

I applaud the more aggressive TV campaign ads from the Stelmach team. If you don’t define yourself in politics others will do it for you. The union consortium that is sponsoring the attack ads on Stelmach is trying to tie into the Klein admission that he did not have a plan. Nothing could be further from the truth. Stelmach has done more forward thinking planning and policy implementation in a year than was done in the prior 7 years altogether. Ed is not Ralph, and while some may lament that, I don’t. Ralph was great for Alberta in his time but that time has passed.

Getting the math right around debt and deficit was not easy but it was not nearly as difficult as the much larger and more significant governance and policy challenges that Alberta has to grapple with today. We need leadership that is more reflective, thoughtful, compassionate, adaptive and integrated. Toughness, decisiveness and discipline are still important qualities today too but only in the context of a practical long view integrated planning consciousness. These are the realities of the next Premier of the province.

I have worked on various projects where Stelmach was a key Minister. I know him to be careful but also creative, decisive and forward thinking. As Minister of both Infrastructure and Transportation he brought the kind of capacity to the department and that resulted in his recent introduction of the 20 Capital Plan for Alberta. The new royalty structure will provide certainty for the Alberta energy industry for a decade at a time when the issues are more complex and more critical and uncertain than ever before. To get the Edmonton Capital Region Plan moving and to institute an Oil Sands Strategic Planning and Management group in government are more examples of long range, big impact and strategic planning decisions that are hallmarks of Stelmach’s leadership.

The Stelmach settlement of the teachers' unfunded pension liability was an issue that was ignored for years. He dealt with quickly and conclusively. He also let the ATA and the various school boards ultimately decide if they wanted the deal. To me this is showing he is not just a prescriptive top down dictatorial leader. If a better idea came forth from the ATA locals and school boards, I am sure he would have changed things to improve the package.

The Stelmach story about how he cares, how he sees Alberta’s natural, human and public resources being used for the common good needs to be told loudly and clearly. The Stelmach view of the role of responsibility of accountable government needs to be told loudly and clearly too. There have been a few hiccups under Stelmach’s watch but nothing that can’t be fixed effectively and quickly. There is a much broader integrated policy agenda that must be addressed for the next Alberta. That expanded integrated policy agenda must include our environmental responsibilities and social well challenges have to be given at least equal prominence as our economic wellbeing.

The Progressive and Conservative model of governance is the best approach to deal with this broader more integrated long view sustainable policy agenda for the next Alberta. Ed Stelmach’s leadership of the province will change the context of what progressive conservative governance will become. He will be more socially progressive and compassionate about the human capital potential for all Albertans. He will put conservation back on the agenda in terms of Alberta’s natural capital stewardship and development of infrastructure and other physical capital demands. He will ensure that future generations of Albertans interests and needs are considered as he moves to conserve more of our one-time natural resource revenues as well.

The other personal quality I admire in Ed Stelmach is his proven capacity to learn, adapt and to embrace new ideas and approaches to solve problems. The most important challenge facing the next Alberta is going to be our individual and collective ability to learn and adapt quickly, effectively and appropriately. We all have to be able to anticipate and respond to the challenges and changes to the new normal of the next Alberta. It trust Ed Stelmach to show us the way and to be a model of how we undertake the greater opportunities and responsibilities of being Albertan moving forward.

Poll Shows Taft's Election in Edmonton Riverview is No Shoe-In

Well we pundits and the mainstream media may think this election campaign is boring but recent poll results in Edmonton Riverview shows that the citizens there don’t think it is boring. A full 93% of the citizens of Edmonton Riverview say they intend to vote in the election. We know fewer will show up but that expression of voter intent is pretty good everything considered.

Here are the startling results of the 1037 people in the Edmonton Riverview constituency who were polled on Feb18-19. This is the home turf of the leader of the Alberta Liberal Party, Dr. Kevin Taft. This random poll sample size has a margin of error +/- 3% 19 times out of 20.

QUESTION:
“If you were to vote today, which of the following parties would you vote for?”

Liberal 35%
Progressive Conservative 28%
NDP 7%
Green 5%
Wildrose Alliance 5%
Undecided 19%

Last election Dr. Taft garnered 65.48% of the vote and the PC candidate took 22.77%.

QUESTION:
“Which of the following issues will be most important in helping you decide your vote?”

Health Care 41%
Environment 26%
Crime and Justice 18%
Affordable Housing 15%

Campaigns matter and I have said all along that this election is too close to call, especially given how volatile the electorate is this time. Looking at these results Dr. Taft may have to spend much more time in his constituency than he originally planned.

The undecided vote is high for half way through a campaign and if they show up anything can happen. The Greens and the WAP are hot on the heels of the NDP too. I wonder if there is a foot race for third place in the province this time too.

If the Alberta voters want change and if Edmonton Riverview is any indication, change may come in many forms. It will be interesting to see the range and variety of changes that may come from this election.

I said weeks ago the only safe seat in Alberta this time is Ed Stelmach’s. Everyone else will have to earn victory the hard way – by working for it on the phone, at the doors and through the internet. This election is far from over – and as Edmonton Riverview is telling us, it is not boring either.