The Alberta Oil Sands Story Must be Told Honestly & Openly

The Edmonton Journal Political Columnist, Graham Thomson, is promising to shut up about the oil sands.
Say it ain't so Graham. We need more, not less, reliable trustworthy, knowledgeable and honest commentary to generate a province wide conversation amongst Albertans on the future of OUR oil sands.

WHAT DO ALBERTANS EXPECT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THEIR OIL SANDS?
The issues on the minds of Albertans over the development of their oil sands are mostly about reclamation, habitat protection and preservation, ecological monitoring, GHG emissions and water concerns.  These are the major driving values that Albertans want to see guide public policy around oil sands development.

The typical Albertan is not focused on how much investment is coming in from where or worried about how many jobs are being created in the development of this vast resource.  Given the size and strategic nature of the oil sands, those aspects are assumed to be givens.  Of course, there are risks around commodity prices and environmental stewardship pressures.  The prices must hold and new technology has to be developed to clean up the oil sands.  However, geopolitical events impacting supply, the growth of demand in the developing world and the eventual pricing of carbon emissions makes continued high energy prices and new technology developments seem inevitable; even in a recession.

ALBERTANS ARE GOING TO START ACTING LIKE OWNERS:
Albertans own this vital energy resource.  Industry is our tenant and the government is our property manager.  We need this resource to be treated as a long term asset that generates sustainable real wealth in a responsible way that benefits all Albertans not just the energy sector.  Ensuring responsible oil sands development is the duty of all Albertans.  We have to press our tenants on investing in more value added oil sands opportunity within Alberta.  We have to press our property mangers on creating better regulations, a better royalty revenue scheme and assurance of reclamation that supports biodiversity on those lands.  After all 89% of Albertans believe the oil sands are important to our future prosperity and well-being.  What more of a motivation does a government or political party need to realize they better get better at actually managing this vital asset and not spend so much time and money on phony PR battles.

We Albertans have to ensure that responsible oil sands development happens environmentally, socially, politically and yes economically too.  We must ensure we are being fair to future generations of Albertans on all counts.  Our oil sands value research shows that our property manger governments - both federal and provincial - are not living up to our expectations so far.  What to do about that poor performance is a political decision that are in the hands of every voting Albertan.  Voters must take the time to consider carefully in the consequences of the coming elections. They have to consciously decide who is worthy of their consent to govern and on what goals and values as they decide how to cast their ballot.

ALBERTANS ARE NOT IMPRESSED IN HOW OIL SANDS ARE BEING DEVELOPED:
Right now only 31% of believe our oil sands are being managed responsibly.  Only 17% of us were satisfied with how our Alberta-based Members of Parliament were representing our interests in the federal government...and all but one of the Alberta MPs is in the governing Harper ruled Conservative party.  The Stelmach government is held in even lower esteem as only 12% of Albertans were satisfied with their provincial government performance.

When asked which provincial party and leader should be trusted the most to responsibly manage Alberta's growth the preferences were very telling.   Stelmach and his PCs were preferred by 23%, Smith and the Wildrose Alliance came in at 19% support, followed by Swann and the Liberals at 9% and the Mason led NDP at only 4% confidence. Here is the kicker, None of the Above was the choice of 45% of Albertans.  That is a sign of political discontent and a rejection of the status quo.  Change is in the political air in Alberta.

So we are now seeing a plethora of new science-based ecological reviews from the Fed and the Province and separate promises from each order of government that they will do better.  Well they better get better and bloody quickly too.  Albertans are watching. They are not amused by what they have seen and sceptical that the current  political power structure is capable or even interested in hearing the public's voice or listening to the opinions of the citizen  owners of the oil sands.

EMPOWERED ENGAGED VOTERS CAN BE EXPECTED TO SHOW UP NEXT ELECTIONS:
Federal and Provincial elections are coming in Alberta. They will be real contests.  For the first time in a long time the outcomes are not guaranteed for conservatives.  The political culture of this dynamic province is about to change and the presumptions of any conservative based party winning by default are being rebutted by the evidence on our research at Cambridge Strategies.

So 2011 promises more uncertainty, turmoil and anger as Albertans return to engaged citizenship and look for a political approach and capable leadership that reflects our values.  The facts as of today shows that none of the current parties or leaders are measuring up to our new Alberta aspirations. There is a lot of soft support for all the standard brand parties in Alberta that is looking for a viable alternative...beyond the hardcore conservative values of the Wildrose Alliance. If a sizable portion of the 60% of disillusioned and disengaged Albertan returns to active informed citizenship and show up to vote in the coming Federal and Provincial elections, all bets that presume a perpetual conservative political culture in Alberta are off.

Welcome to 2011.

The Eyes of the World Are On Alberta's Oil Sands

Here is a link to yet another excellent Sunday Reader feature in the Edmonton Journal by Sheila Pratt on what it might take to get a reconciliation between industry the environmentalists and our governments on what is appropriate oil sands development approaches.  I was interviewed by Sheila for this piece and pleased to participate.

What we need now is an adult conversation in Alberta and by Albertans on how we want to see our oil sands resources developed.  The basis for that conversation should be framed from the findings of our resent research at Cambridge Strategies Inc. on the values Albertan's want to see guide and drive oil sands development was done in collaboration with OSRIN (Oil Sands Research and Information Network)

The citizens of Alberta need to create the place and space for that conversation to take place.  That can be in community meetings, church basements, coffee shops, service clubs, business groups, union halls, educational institutions, political gatherings and kitchen tables, just to name a few.  That conversation can begin where ever  one Albertan takes the time to asks another about what they want to see done to assure us that our natural resource is being responsibly developed so we can be proud of all the outcomes.

I am quoted in the Edmonton Journal story saying Albertans are starting to lose pride in the province.  I believe this to be true partly because our research shows only 31% of Albertans believe the oil sands resource in being managed well.  The Influentials in the province are at the forefront of this emerging sense of a loss of pride in being Albertan.  When asked if they tell others great things about living in Alberta only 51% of Influentials agreed or strongly agreed and only 45% of them would strongly recommend living in Alberta to a friend.

UPDATE:  REX MURPHY ASKS WHY AREN'T WE PROUD OF THE OIL SANDS?  This industry also needs a human face and not just the nice folks who work in the industry that populate the full page colour newspaper ads the industry is wasting money on - as if that would persuade us of authenticity, trustworthiness and integrity

The reason the opinions of Influentials are so important is because they are trend setters and opinion leaders.  These are the people the rest of the population relies on to help form our own thoughts on issues, ideas and many of the decisions we make in our lives.  Some have suggested what Influentials think today is what the general population will be thinking in 12 to 18 months from now.

That is why government and industry better start a more meaningful, serious and adult conversation with Albertans about what we want to see happening with the development of our resource.  After all it is Albertans who own the oil sands.  Industry is a mere tenant that depends on public confidence to gain and sustain a social license to operate their businesses be it forests, oil and gas or oil sands.

As for government their equivalent of a social license it to be seen worthy of the citizen's consent to govern.  Right now all of the political parties and their leaders in are seen to be less than adequate to the task of effectively managing the growth of Alberta.  When Albertans were asked who did they think was best able to responsibly manage Alberta's growth the results were astonishing.  Premier Ed Stelmach was the choice of 23%, Danielle Smith garnered 19%, David Swann had 9% and Brian Mason only 4%.  None of the Above was the assessment of 45% of the 1032 Albertans who were in the random survey done last May.

Change is in the air and alternatives are needed based on this survey result. If you want a progressive political culture in the Next Alberta register now for RebootAlberta 3.0 at www.rebootalberta.org

When and What Will the Next Alberta Election Be About?

I get a strange feeling the Stelmach government is easing into the election prep stage known as The Red Zone. That is where not much happens in governance because they don’t want to make political mistakes. With the rise of the “pungent and pink” Wildrose the current government, if not in the Red Zone, it is definitely concerned about the Wildrose “pink zone” of election readiness.


I don’t think we will have a snap election in Alberta but I would not count on Stelmach waiting until March 2012 as stated earlier. Alberta is mindful of many external forces influencing its election timing. For example there is potential for a federal election late this fall or next spring. It may happen over the next budget or, depending if Harper thinks he can get a majority, he will engineer his own defeat. The midterm US elections will be watched carefully by the Stelmach government for policy trends that impact energy policy and oil sands development.

Then there are domestic concerns about election timing. The Stelmach government had an approval rating of 12% in a recent survey of Albertans. The economy is apparently recovering but is it due to the billions of provincial and federal government stimulus money or is it authentic economic growth at play? Are we into a slow and steady economic turn around or a double dip recession? Too early to tell yet and economist are pointing in every direction, as usual.

Then we have the volatility of politics to consider too. There is change in the air in Alberta these days. And what form that will take is still unclear. Albertan’s self –image from environmental pressures and negative PR is eating away at our pride of place, our self-confidence and our self-esteem. Albertans are clear that oil sands are critically important to our future prosperity. But they are now questioning themselves and their government about how well this resource is being developed and managed.

The lack of faith in the leadership in any of the current political parties is another measure of volatility. We recently asked a random sample of over 1000 Albertans which political leader they trusted most to manage the growth in the Alberta economy. The results brought a sharp focus on the general disaffection Albertans have with the current crop of political leaders. Only 4% picked the NDP’s Brian Mason. Some 9% trusted Liberal leader David Swann. As for The Wildrose and Danielle Smith only 19% would put their management trust in her. Premier Ed Stelmach of the PCs garnered a scant 23% who said they trusted him the most to manage Alberta’s growth. Here is the kicker – 45% of us said we mostly trusted none of them to manage the growth of the Alberta economy. That survey outcome speaks to potential for serious political change but begs the question – change to what alternative?

Now add in the right-wing conservative political culture war that is raging in Alberta between Progressive Conservatives and the Wildrose Alliance Party. With Ted Morton’s move to Minister of Finance and Enterprise he is doing the next budget for the spring of 2011. We can expect his ideological fingerprints will to be all over the economic and fiscal policy direction of Alberta by next year. Kevin Libin has a very insightful and telling column in a recent edition of the National Post on the Morton factor in Alberta politics and policy directions. I recommend you read it.

If Kevin is right in his observations about Minister Morton, and my comments he quotes about Minister Morton from 2006 are still valid (and Morton himself says they are) then we have another fly-in-the-ointment political dynamic that will influence the election timing.

What if the PCs become less progressive and more Morton-like conservative between now and the next election? What if the defacto election battle on the right is between the Sorcerer Morton and Smith, his former Apprentice from the Calgary School? Where does that leave Stelmach? Where do progressives go given the current anemic political alternatives they are being offered? What does the next Alberta look like if only the radical right and reactionary left show up to vote?

We need a viable progressive political alternative in Alberta. The current situation is untenable for any thoughtful Albertan who sees a positive balanced role for responsible, accountable, open and honest government. Reboot Alberta is not a political party but it is a way to influence and shape any new or existing political party. We need to show the powers that be and any that want to be that they must move towards a more inclusive and effective approach to a more contemporary political culture that reflects the next Alberta instead of trying to perfect the past.

Efforts are afoot for staging Reboot 3.0 in late October to look at a more activist approach to bring the progressive agenda and voice back to Alberta politics. Stay tuned for more information here and to join the Reboot Alberta citizen's movement go to http://www.rebootalberta.org/

Stelmach Says Environment Trumps Economy - It is About Time.

You can’t blame Albertans for being confused when you read the reporting on Ed Stelmach’s alleged response(s) to the CEMA letter calling for a partial moratorium on further oil sands leases so conservation issues can be addressed.

I think the Edmonton Journal front page headline repeats Stelmach from over a year ago saying “No Brakes on Oil Sands” and the Globe and Mail has Stelmach saying “Environment Trumps Economy.” I think both stories are accurate but you have to wonder at the framing of the issue and why the PC policy position is not clearer and more consistent. It can change over time and I applaud that it does. But whoda thunk Ed Stelmach was so post-modern! Well, me for one because I know a bit about the man. I know his sense of ecological stewardship and the respect he has for the free enterprise system. However the role of government is to ensure and enhance both aspects of our lives and for the greater common good, not just the accumulation of private wealth.

I have to spend some time reflecting on how to square this circle. The best I can do so far is to express my own feelings and beliefs. The environment has to trump the economy –every time. And the economy has to serve the interests of society –every time and not the other way around as it has been in Alberta as of late.

Government has a duty to regulate and protect the environment. And there are economic consequences in the government's job in exercising that stewardship responsibility. Progress is measured by building on strengths and avoiding or mitigating weaknesses. On the weakness side I want a government that first avoids and, if necessary, fixed screw ups and one that seizes opportunities that present themselves.

On the strength side I want a government who takes responsibility for those things we need to care about as a society, including the natural and social capital deficits we have in Alberta today. I want a government that takes its role of managing our resources seriously and responsibly - including collecting royalty payments owned when due.

Finally I want a government that has a leadership group, like a Cabinet, that can listen, learn and adapt – effectively, quickly and appropriately. That is the real biggie going forward. We need to enhance our ecological integrity in this province. We need to enhance our social cohesion and capacity show caring and compassion for our vulnerable citizens form children, to seniors to the disabled. We need to vastly improve our decision making procedures and capacity.

So Ed, Kevin, Brian, Paul and George, that is what I want my next government to be capable of. The rest is detail that I will trust you, as my Premier, if you are in power after Monday, to work out in a way that is open, transparent and accountable. No pressure!

Debate Uncovers Personal Animosities Amongst the Alberta Political Leaders.

The Debate last week had some interesting subplots. Those revolved around the personal skirmishes between the leaders. It gives a sense of the personal positioning, fears and animosity that may exist between the various party leaders in this campaign.

The order of importance and context of these personal trysts, that I perceived, are as follows:

#1 Mason vs. Taft: Mason has to ensure his base does not go strategic on him and vote Liberal to try and defeat Tories…like what happened in Edmonton in 2004. A vote for Mason is not a Tory victory vote in 2008 but Mason is saying the Alberta Liberals are pretty much the same as the PCs…both are in the pocket of big money. Vote NDP to keep them both honest.

#2 Hinman vs. Stelmach: Hinman has to show some of his “true conservative” credentials and take Stelmach on over his “overspending” and “progressive” values. Hinman gets to ignore the needed increased spending is due to lack of meeting the needed infrastructure and maintenance spending of past years under the Klein regime. Hinman has to give the far right a reason to believe in him and that is best done by showing that the PCs have lost their way. He has gone too far claiming the Stelmach PCs are unprincipled people who “tear up contracts” with oil sands companies (not true at all but good spin) and therefore the PCs not worth reconsidering. Reality check…Suncor has already voluntarily renegotiated its royalty deal and Syncrude is on its way to do the same thing. NO contracts are being torn up and Hinman knows it. He is taking a pass on integrity with this misrepresentation crap…and he knows that too.

#3 Taft vs. Stelmach: This is Taft bemoaning the past of PC governance to the point his is actually running against Ralph not Ed. For example he frames 37 years of the same PC government is long enough and that is reason enough to change government. He discounts the fact that voters decide who they wish to govern them. He skates over the fact that elections are a chance to change governments every 4 years or so and that the various PC governments have been responsive and nimble enough to change with the times. Taft has to beat Ed on a personal level if his is to win this election and based on the changes in the last 14 months, Taft can’t count on Ed gaffing his way out of government. Taft is hoping Calgary is in the process redefining its Red Mile to be a profound Liberal Red Mine with lots of seat shifts. Ed is banking on Redmonton returning to the PCs and becoming EDmonton. Cute metaphors but is there any truth in them? We will know in a week.

#4 Mason vs. Taft and Stelmach: As variations on the same theme, distinctions without a difference. He claims both are in the pockets of big business and they don’t have the best interests of his “regular Albertans” in their hearts...as he obviously does. Nick Taylor, a former Alberta Liberal leader and federal Senator once described his successor Liberal leader, Laurence Decore, as “Getty with glasses.” Mason says the difference between Stelmach and Taft is indistinguishable at their core that he would net even made that distinction between how they would govern.…especially their too cozy relationship with big business in Alberta. Not very accurate on the evidence…but good positioning for Mason to speak to his base who need to believe in him to stay with him.

If all politics are local, are all leadership arguments and differences of opinion ultimately personal?

Alberta Debate Results: #1 Stelmach, #2 Don't Know, #3 Taft

The impact of the Alberta election debate is the subject of a CanWest poll published today. My blog post for the CBC YouCast site said the debate changed nothing for the undecided voter but the leaders all reaffirmed and reassured their bases. The poll results confirm this.

Pundits and MSM see political debates as contests between party leaders so, by definition, there has to be a winner and a loser. When there isn’t a clear result the chattering class suffer from a kind of political cognitive dissonance because can’t resolve the values conflict that demands a winner and a loser. I say let them suffer.

Looking at the poll results, ¾ of viewers did not change their minds and 23% are still undecided with about 10 days to go. The numbers say Stelmach “won” for 30.1% of the respondents and 34.6% say they are voting for him. Taft is perceived to have “won” by 23.3% and 23.1% are voting for him. This is showing the core vote for each party is pleased with their guy’s performance – nothing more can be read into this poll result. The NDP and WAP results are inconsequential but there are some interesting strategic implications around them for the two main parties.

The WAP’s Hinman confirmed his fiscal fundamentalist right-wing agenda. His challenge was to reassure the newly merged WAP members that they are a political force and not be discouraged with the President’s resignation and the poor showing on candidate recruitment. Hinman has to sustain his 70K popular vote from the 2004 election and get re-elect to succeed.

The NDP has to reassure core supporters not to vote Liberal for strategic purposes to defeat the PCs. He has done that by taking on both Stelmach and Taft. He has positioned Taft as pretty much a PCer in a red sweater. His core is reassured that an NDP vote is not a waste and they should return to the role of keeping both the Libs and the PC honest. He has to at least retain seats and sustain popular vote levels to succeed.

Taft has performed well this election campaign but the debate is where he will have peaked and is now plateaued. He will sustain this support level to and through Election Day. That potentially means more seats but not government. With no clear ballot question and a considerable but seemingly disengaged undecided segment, the big momentum change the Libs need to form government is not happening. His attempt to position Stelmach as same old…same old has not gelled because Stelmach has proven to be an agent of significant change in the past 14 months.

As for Stelmach, he has kept his true Progressive Conservative party core. With Hinman’s debate performance, the far right voters that abandoned Klein in 2004, are not coming back. That is a god thing because it clearly puts to bed that Stelmach is just a continuation of the past government. Stelmach has recognized that Albertans what change and elections are always about change and choices. The results coming out of this debate and the campaign so far shows Albertans want change but they are coming to realize Ed Stelmach is the kind a prudent, thoughtful and careful change agent we need in these time of turmoil.

It looks like Albertans are prepared to give him a real shot as a change agent and to give him more time to get the needed changes done right, not just rapidly. This time he will have his own team and his own mandate. He will also face a much higher expectation level for deliver on his promises and to stay true to his stated values than any other Premier of Alberta in history.

Alberta's Election is Half Over - Not Much Has Happened - Yet!

The Alberta election exits Week 2 and it moves lethargically into week three. The missteps by the mainstream parties of the opening day are done and nothing can be done about them. The "big" stories last week were very weak to say the least. The PCs seem to be always on defence punching from their back foot. The Liberals are showing lots fancy footwork and jumping around a lot but not punching a lot. The NDs are pretty much out of the ring but they running around the outside apron trying to stir up the crowd. The Wildrose Alliance candidates are busy in their livingrooms crafting home made lawn signs. Midweek, the Greens were just 4 seats short of mounting a full slate of candidates...impressive.

The last week saw the headlines preoccupied with stories about partisan appointments of Deputy Returning Officers. The media coverage and the attention getting machinery of the various political parties obligingly “engaged” on the "issue." Bottom line – this is something that should have and could have been fixed before the election. FIXING THIS IS A NO BRAINER.

Political parties should be far removed from the suggestion and selection of DROs. There is a need for absolute - not relative - independence of those who run the election machinery on the ground. That choice of DRO staffers must be the sole and absolute discretion of the Chief Returning Officer. Nothing more. Nothing less. It is not a good enough response to say that there has not been a problem in the past so why is this an issue because there is no problem now.

Doing the right thing, in the right way, all the time...even when no one is looking...is what citizens ought to reasonably expect from political parties and their election procedures. Whose election is it anyway? Elections belong to citizens, not the political parties.

The current “recommendation” model for DROs is old style arcane power/patronage politics that is unacceptable and must go. We PCs have been way to slow to catch up to this issue and put it to bed. I can’t figure out why we are so far behind on it and so slow on getting past it. There are some really big ticket issues of long term significance that deserve attention in this election.

Why are we getting knocked off the puck and appering to be trying to sustain this past stupidity? Stelmach's move to establish all party legislative policy committees last year was a democratic reform that hard to do - and he did it. To cease and desist on appearances of political interference in the election procedures is an easy democratic reform. Get it done Ed!

This past week saw the union sponsored attack ads, under the pseudonym “Albertans for Change, get a big boost in the bucks. AUPE, the GOA staff union, ponies up a cool $300K to keep the campaign alive. I hear lots of grumbling in some labour circles that their unions have been pretty useless at representing the membership’s interests as of late. I wonder if the motivation behind this TV advertising spending against the PCs is as much about showing the union membership that their unions are actually doing something “for them.” Do the boys running the Alberta Building Trades Council think that playing politics with membership dues at election time is going to appease their membership for what many see as a lack of their union's effective performance? Not all union members vote against the PC Party so I can imagine this use of union dues for political attack ads will not be receiving unanimous membership support. At the polls nor in the union halls.

Can you imagine what the union friendly NDP and Brian Mason could have done with all that money being spent on an Ontario advertising agency and for the cost of the TV time too? It would have at least paid out the NDP debt, if nothing else. Brian Mason would likely have had to refuse it anyway because it would have been BIG money running politics again. That is something he has been on about last week in criticizing the big corporate money behind the PCs and the Alberta Liberals.

Week three is coming and I wonder what we will see. There are lots of surveys being circulated to candidates. I have seen those sent to PC candidates so far and I presume all parties are getting them. My post tomorrow will be on the good, the bad and the ugly about survey’s that have come in to date. I will comment on examples in each category. The source of the bad one so far is a surprise.

All Party Campaigns Open With More "Oops" Than Opportunities

None of the big three political parties are off to a very auspicious campaign start.

The Stelmach Doctor deal had a harsh reality check of what is actually do-able versus what is electorally announce-able! The dancing and adjusting done between the Edmonton and Calgary announcements is embarrassing.

The Alberta Liberals have had to dump a candidate who is facing drug and bribery charges. That too is embarrassing.

The Dippers are on the Dave Rutherford radio program apologizing to the Chair of the “Our Fair Share” Royalty Review for a very public misrepresentation of some private email exchanges. More embarrassments.

It can’t be stage fright or novice actors forgetting their lines. It is just the stuff that happens in elections where time pressures, campaign exuberance and human error hype too often trumps considered wisdom and thoughtfulness.

No big deal on these issues…but Alberta has some enormous challenges and opportunities gong forwards. We need political leaders of all parties to be able to anticipate and avoid screw ups and to not miss opportunities. We also need political leaders who can clearly communicate what they care about and what they are personally very committed to. We need to see their demonstrated capabilities to assume the array and weight of the responsibilities of the office of Premier.

Finally we need to give our politicians enough slack so they can learn, adapt and change – quickly and correctly as required. They need this permission to be flexible without being seen as indecisive, weak or “flip flopping.”

God I hate that term. It is such a stupid characterization that actually impedes open, accountable, necessary and effective change. It stifles good governance and good decision making too. If the next Premier leaves the job as the same person they where when they came to the office that means they are incompetent or they held Alberta back from realizing its full potential or both.

Voter Apathy and a Perfect Storm for Alberta Politics

Here is what voter indifference can do to the future of Alberta. We are already deeply into election mode and it will be apparent after New Years. Unless our provincial political agenda changes, we can anticipate a continuation of voter apathy. This is due to the disconnect between modern machine politics and the concerns of real people who are leading real lives and facing real issues.

What if politics does not change and the cynicism and scepticism continue as the dominant political response? Well I don’t have a worst possible partisan political scenario because that really depends on your point of view and your party affiliation.

I do however have a sense of consequences of lost and bungled opportunities for the province as well as the potential for some serious political mistakes to be made…by anyone and everyone in the running.

I think citizen indifference and voter apathy is the biggest threat to mature democracies. Apathy and indifference is not only the fault of the citizens. The political system has to take much of the blame. For those fans of proportional representation, stifle yourselves. It is not a cure…it is more likely to add complications to the affliction and erode the necessary capacity for effective on-going governing.

Here is what I think can happen as a consequence of citizen apathy and voter indifference. It is entirely possible we could end up with new leadership races in the PC, Alberta Liberals and the NDP in 2008. If that were to happen we would have squandered the opportunity for meaningful change and will set Alberta on a course of least 2 more years of drift and dissonance.

Here is my armchair quarterbacking that drives Alberta to that result. There is a PC repeat and amplification of the 2004 and the recent Calgary by election phenomenon. The far right goes to the Alliance and other marginal parties weakening the rural stronghold of the PCs. They are spread thinly and make no real electoral inroads.

The progressives stay home in disgust or show up in anger and send a message to the powers that be by parking their ballots with the Greens. Why the Greens? It is perceived as a safe parking place because it does not help the Liberals directly and sends a strong message to the PCs that the policy agenda is dated. Women and youth who do show up will be angry as well and go to the Greens too. This will be a protest vote about the relevance and priorities of the public policy agenda and mainline party platforms.

The consequence is a PC minority government. That means the knives are going to be out for Stelmach for obvious reasons. The Alberta Liberals will benefit from more seats but they are also going to be after Taft’s head too. Because he would be seen as unsuccessful and ineffective in going for the kill and gaining the political power he ought to have realized in the face of an "obviously weakened" PC party.

The Greens don’t even have to elect anyone to be seen as winners. They get a big bump in popular vote and due to protests, anger and ballot parking they rival or perhaps even surpass the NDP popular vote. That will strike fear in the hearts of the Alberta NDP and been seen across the country as a foreshadowing of what may happen to the Dippers in the forthcoming federal election too. Brian Mason’s leadership also gets challenged as a result.

A PC minority government in March of 2008 will likely results in three political party leadership campaigns by late 2008. Who knows what the outcomes of those exercises will be? One thing for sure is if this happens any semblance of real governing will be suspended for at least another year. A lack of governing focus and capacity could roll over well into 2010 and beyond as another election will undoubtedly happen sooner than later.

Uncertainty then becomes the new normal in Alberta. Not a good thing and nothing we are very used to. Frankly I don't see this happening if the political parties, particularly the PCs, get their acts together and become relevant to the lives of Albertans again.

One thing for sure though, even without this perfect storm scenario, Alberta politics are guaranteed to be interesting for the first time in a long time.

Wake Up Alberta and Get Ready for a February Election Call

The darkening clouds of an American recession and the presumed pending elections in Alberta and Canada means we cynical citizens have to take our heads out of the sand and start to look seriously about how we want to be governed and by whom.

Our dollar parity and the greed machine stupidity of the now world-side Us inspired sub prime mortgage fiasco, the US housing market mess, yet another BSE animal, more US soft wood protectionism and the approaching American Primaries adds to the "fun." Inflation is taking hold in Alberta and the cost of living is gettign out of control, especially for newcomers, to the point where more people are now leaving Alberta than coming here. It all helps to create a miasma of economic uncertainty going into election times.

I will spend the weeks leading up to an election focusing this blog, in part, on some of the big picture the issues and policy concerns of Albertans as we ponder the forthcoming election(s). The lack of any plan or the lack of believing we even needed one during the last half of the Klein regime has left Alberta with some seriously complicated and significantly critical issues to handle.

Commodity prices are high except for natural gas and that is masking some other economic concerns like the consequences of high costs, labour shortages, inflation, affordable housing and social services breakdowns just to name a few. I have not even touched on the environmental concerns which is becoming the new #1 issue for Alberta.

All this complexity demands experienced, effective, nimble and adaptive political and business leadership. We need more focused and activist leadership to jump into these issues and with the ability to design some comprehensive plans for serious long term solutions. Then the leadership must have the ability to focus and execute those plans.

There is not much time left for citizens of Alberta to get serious about deciding what they want changed in their government and governors. Elections are all about change and my best guess is we can expect an Alberta election writ in February. I have three date ranges in mind as to when I think that election call will happen. Feb 6 or 7 is very likely because they are the days immediately after the Throne Speech.

This is a defining opportunity for Stelmach to show once and for all he is no Klein clone. He has already effectively distanced himself from Ralph on a number of significant policy issues. The Throne Speech will be a winner if it aligns and resonates with the hopes of Albertans and helps show how we can fulfill the providence of this province. It must also addresses the fears of Albertans, and there are fears out there.

Next likely election call timing is Feb 12 or 13 which is just before the scheduled Valentines Day Budget Speech. If we get an election call instead of a Budget Speech then we can expect the “budget” to be official PC party policy and rolled out in the election campaign. This will reinforce Premier Stelmach as his own man and with a real plan and a realistic focus for the future. This pre- budget election call has happened many times before. It is not a new idea and one that may happen again.

Finally, if they let Oberg read the Budget Speech and table the Budget the rules require a certain number of days of debate. Then the writ would be dropped likely during the week of Feb 25. My instincts tell me Stelmach would like the election to be over before Easter which comes early this year, March 23 to be exact. That is why this late date post Budget timing is the least likely election call by my speculations.

So that means early or mid February election call. Putting Christmas aside, that leaves 4-6 weeks for Albertans to get their heads around what kind of government they want going forward and who they will entrust to lead us. In the meantime we have the chance to let our politicians know what we expect by way of a preferred future. I recommend direct citizen action by personal political lobbying and an aggressive citizen's action pre-campaign communications plan aimed directly at all Alberta politicians of all stripes.

So get busy Alberta and fill up the the politicians mail boxes, email in-boxes, radio call-ins and Letters to the Editors in January. Let the powers that be, and those who aspire to power, know your ideas and demands for a better Alberta. Many Alberta are coming into this election disinterested, distrusting and disgusted with how our province (and our country) has been run as of late, especially in the later days of the Klein regime and the second year of the Harper government. Cynicism, skepticism and passive hoping is not a method for effective change.

I smell democracy in the air and a desire for change. That is a potent combination that usually means change is coming. The big question is does Progressive Conservative Ed Stelmach, Alberta Liberal Kevin Taft, NDP Brian Mason or Green George Reid represents the kind of change we want and which one will best meet the future forward needs of Alberta? Albertans will be answering that question very shortly as we go to the polls with an election starting well before February is over.

Dealing With Delusions About a Fall Election in Alberta

The speculation in some circles around a fall election in Alberta is living proof of how delusional the human species can be sometimes. Premier Stelmach has given existing MLA notice they have until the end of November to get nominations over with and new candidates have to get nominated before the end of October.

Secondly the PCs have a Policy Conference scheduled for late October as part of a party revitalization – a real one this time. Not the fiasco that happened after the 2004 election. The Policy Conference is intended for the rank and file to consider and discuss what they want the future of the PC Party and the province to be all about.

Finally we have municipal elections that would be messed up if there was a fall election and it would not be smart to tick off local politicians any more than we have already.

The last time the PC called an early election was in the Getty days and we were appropriately punished for the tactic. There is no need for Alberta to pay for an election now and if it were motivated – or perceived to be motivated – the recent poll results – the PCs would deserve to be punished at the polls again.

A fall election is not going to happen. Notwithstanding the logic, Brian Mason’s NDP have “launched” their campaign in preparation for a fall election at the U of A is past week. This is a smart tactic for the NDP because they need all the lead time they can get. By starting their election campaign now they might be able to get to the starting line for when the real election will actually be called in the coming spring.

Link Byfield Says the Growing Undecided Voters in Alberta is Good for the Wildrose Party

Link Byfield has sent out another call for signatures to help the new Wildrose Party to get political party status. He sees the Cameron Strategies poll last week showing some 37% of Albertans undecided in how they will vote next election as fertile ground for a new, energized far-right political movement. Here is what Link had to say in an e-mail on Friday:

“An astonishing poll this week from Cameron Strategy in Calgary shows that undecided voters are now the largest group in Alberta (37%). The Stelmach Conservatives have dropped to 32%. That's down from 54% in January. Liberals, NDP, Greens and Alliance are all stalled. Highest place are the Liberals, unchanged at 16%. The Alberta Alliance remains at 5%, down from 9% in 2004 election.”

It is actually 30% undecided and 6% who will not vote at all in the polling figures I have seen,but that is a quibble. I wonder if Link remembered this pollster was also an able and key advisor to the Dr. Oberg PC leadership campaign. Speaking of Dr. Oberg, when is he going to release his donor list from the PC leadership campaign – what has it been 9 months? He is the last to do it. Remember Dr. Morton said he never would tell Albertans who bankrolled him.

As for the poll, it does not look good for those of us who believe in the leadership of Ed Stelmach. I have only seen the news release on the poll. I have not seen the questions or the data distribution so it is hard to really comment except in the most general of terms. We all know wording of questions can have an impact on outcomes.

It would be interesting to know how many phone calls in total were made in this poll before they got the 600 participants. Some indications are that as many as 15-20 calls have to be made these days before someone is prepared to take the time to answer pollster. The end result is the group participating is not as random as one might think because people self-select to participate and we can never tell what their motivations are.

We also know how the participants split geographically, a third in each of Edmonton, Calgary and other. We don't know gender, age, education, income breakdowns and if that mix correlates with the representative population characteristics of Alberta. I always like to know that before I rely on the data. Cameron Strategies is very reputable and experienced so I am sure they will soon release all the data and the wording of the questions too.

Regardless of these technicalities, judging by these results, it sure looks like Albertans are disenchanted with politics these days. Stelmach is taking the brunt of this but there is little solace for the Taft Liberals or Mason's NDP, who Link notes are both “stalled.” The Alliance is in free fall too. That and "37%" undecided – maybe the Wildrose Party has some potential to be a force in the next election.

In the mean time the Wildrose Party need signatures to qualify as a political party for the next Alberta election and that is obviously Job 1 for them right now.