When You Woke Up This Morning Alberta - What Was On Your Mind?

Great Debate is a Week Old - Do You Remember Anything That Was Said?
It is one week since the Leader’s Debate. Does anyone have a strong memory of anything that was said by any of the leaders? Waht was the "take-away" message for you from the debate? Did it make a difference in the minds of Alberta voters and will impact the end results? Nope and Nope!

Well here are some of the issues I think we Albertans ought to be insisting our government start attending to and getting in front of immediately after this election.

Another Poll Shows the Political Sweet Spot in Alberta is the Environment:
Another poll from Leger for CanWest covered in the Herald and Journal for the past two days shows Albertans are way ahead of the politicians about concerns over the consequences of overheated oil sands development. They are calling for a greater pubic policy commitment and an active government response to GHG controls. Our oil sands survey showed the same results last November. NDs and Libs are on the case but with no credibility of being able to deliver. The issue seems to be a blind spot for the PCs…we better get up to speed on this issue and into the game if we want to continue to have the respect and confidence of the Alberta voter.

Stats Can Says Alberta Energy Investment is Bigger that Manufacturing Investment in ALL of Canada!
Oil sands investment in 2004 was $6.3B and zoomed to $16Bin 2007 and a 23% surge expected this year. Total investment in Alberta for 2008 is pegged at $83.8B, way ahead of Quebec at $60B and closing in on Ontario at $106.B. In fact Alberta is likely to catch Ontario in 2009 if current trends continue. Stats Can says “…in one more year at current rates of growth the oilsands will be bigger than everything: Utilities, transportation and conventional oil and gas.” Is Alberta ready to handle this rate of growth and can our political leadership get out in front of this and deal with the consequences? The environment and the economy are not a zero-sum game - they are the same game. And yes Ed Stelmach - you are right - the environment has to trump the economy and leadership trumps issues.

NAFTA and the Next American President:
Every viable candidate for the next US President is anti-NAFTA because they are either protectionist Democrats or a fear mongering Republican as they fall into recession. The environmental standards in a Democratic House, Senate and White House will compel Alberta to get smarter, greener and more strategic in diversifying our energy upgrading and other markets to reduce US dependency. Alberta needs to get in front of the NAFTA renegotiation – if it happens, the eco-integrity and standards issues and enhancing our capacity to maximize the long term value added benefits of our special position as a reliable, stable assured energy supplier.

Change, Change, Change – Fine, I Get it BUT Will it Happen?
I want political leadership with courage and wisdom and the personal capacity to think things through quickly and comprehensively and then to have the wit and wisdom to execute any plan that emerges effectively and efficiently. Albertans know there are sacrifices to be made to change the consciousness to a more holistic and integrated approach that modern governance demands in a globalized and interdependent world-wide reality. We Albertan are already making the wrong kind of “sacrifices” because of the poor planning and a passive policy culture of the past 7-8 years before the PC Party forced a leadership change.

Apathy is Boring - AND Dangerous!

Time to get focused Alberta and to figure out why you are voting, what you are voting for and then who is the closest to you concerns. The world is run by those who show up and Alberta is no different. Don’t vote – Don’t bitch. Get out and vote and not only can you bitch but you can also stay engaged as a duty of citizenship to get the changes you want. The option to stay passive as the proverbial frog in the boiling water and you only get to self-justify the obvious dire consequences but they will be as much your fault as much as anybody elses.

Hancock Supports a Health and Wellness Foundation for Albertans

One of the ways to measure the level of engagement in an election campaign is the number of organizations that put out party position questionnaires and candidate surveys and how groups co-ordinate their efforts and use the results.

One group I have been following is Health Vision 2020. They are a coalition of 15 prominent health organizations in Alberta. Their mission is to get political support for the creation of a dedicated health promotion foundation that has as its goal to have Albertans as the healthiest people in Canada by 2020. This is the kind of transformational thinking that has been lacking in this campaign from the main line parties. Nice to see it coming from engaged groups of citizens in this election.

The potential for this idea is that we can have improved quality of life outcomes. It will enhance our economy and reduce further demands on the healthcare system. The Mazankowski Report, released in 2002, has this wellness foundation idea as Job 1 in its recommendations…and the time to get on it is now.

The aging population in Alberta will make enormous demands on the healthcare system going forward in time. If we what a sustainable system the secret to that end is not just putting more money into the system but for Albertans to get healthy and to stay healthy and to make that a societal value goal of all Albertans.

So many of the proponents of such ideas only focus on the outcomes but tend to omit to consider what it would cost to achieve the goal and how it could be paid for. Health Vision 2020 is not like most groups in this regard. They propose the double benefit of a modest tax increase on tobacco and alcohol to offset the foundations costs and perhaps reduce the consumption of these products too.

A poll done in 2005 for the Canadian Cancer Society showed 77% of Albertans supported a wellness fund aimed at promoting healthy living in the province. There were 75% of Alberta who would funds for this idea from an increase in tobacco taxes and 69% supported an increased alcohol tax for this project as well.

I see my good friend and Minister of Health and Wellness, Dave Hancock, supports the Health Vision 2020 concept, because he said so in direct reply to another survey that included this idea from the Canadian Mental Health Association. Hancock is a big political champion of a wellness and prevention focus for health care. Well he is not as “big” a champion he once was. I say that because Dave has walked the talk on wellness and disease prevention. I mean that literally as he has dropped over 75 pounds in his own efforts at wellness and prevention.

I applaud the Health Vision 2020 folks and the CMHA for presenting and pushing this transformative idea. Hey Dave, tell Premier Stelmach this idea would be great candidate for Bill #1 after this election.

Leger Poll Results are Reassuring but Not Conclusive of the Final Election Outcome

The CanWest poll published in the Edmonton Journal and the Calgary Herald today has some interesting and some unsettling results. The Alberta election is clearly a two horse race, or more accurately a PC horse (40%) and a half a Liberal horse at (18%) support.

There is no clear ballot question this election and we see there is no clear attitudinal consistency for voters in the election either. I say this because 45% say the PCs should be re-elected and 45% want a change in government. Even more (54%) in Calgary want a change in government but that may be holdover angst from the PC leadership outcome that shocked and unnerved them.

The reality is those who want a change of government have not seen a viable alternative in the other parties. The other reality is the undecided at 27% this late into the election. With no burning issue or no viable alternative to the PCs and about half of them having no inking of which party or leader they are even leaning towards, it is likely the undecided Albertans will stay home.

If the PCs become complacent over getting out the vote or some supporters may want to stay home to send a message to the party, as expected in Calgary, then the overall turnout is going to be abysmally low. That means there are going to be more close races in many places in urban Alberta. The Wildrose Alliance supporters will show up but they don’t have that many candidates running. Will the WAP supporters show for a second choice PC or just stay home? I doubt it.

The other question is how much can we rely on these polls these days. Strategic Counsel did one on the Alberta election in mid January for the Globe and Mail. They had the PCs at 58%, much higher than today. The Liberals at 19% and the NDP were at 9%, same as they are today.

The Strategic Counsel poll had a much stronger likelihood of vote switching at 41% agreeing they might change their opinions on Election Day whereas only 25% in the Leger poll are likely to switch support on Election Day. The Strategic Counsel poll noted PCs were the second choice for 29% of Liberals. A full 32% of PC had the Liberals as their second choice so there is fluidity there too.

I think 40% PC support this close to Election Day is a good sign for the PC Party. Not because it is high. It isn’t. But it should be a sobering reality that spurs on the PC volunteers to get on the phones and get out their vote. The Liberals will be disheartened with this result because it underscores that there time has not come – even with a strong desire for a change of government.

My sense is this poll is not conclusive of anything and that is not a challenge to the instrument design or anything else. I think each party has a core support that will show but there is a sense that the PC support is more “normative” than heartfelt beyond the hard core group. I think many people will make up their minds to vote or not this weekend and if they show up many of them will hold off a final binding vote decision up to the time they pick up the pencil in the voting booth.

As a PC supporter I am reassured by the Leger poll results but I am not confident enough yet to be taking any bets on the final outcome.

The "Pundits Corner" Misses the Mark on How to Measure "Excitement" in Elections These Days.

The Calgary Herald has two political scientists “blogging” for them in this election to give “analysis of what is really going on.” They are worth a read but are very conventional in their perspectives...perhaps because they are academics after all…and one has to take with a grain of salt that they really know what is going on. In this election things are so volatile and variable that nobody knows what is “really going on.”

An example of the conventional, dare I say passé, point of view is that of U of Lethbridge Political Scientist, Peter McCormick and his recent rendering. His Five Ways to Measure Campaign Excitement are quintessentially quotidian and so out of date. Not wrong per se but so yesterday, obvious and mostly misleading.

I say misleading because “excitement” is not the test. Citizen engagement and voter turn out are the real tests of any election campaign's effectiveness. Excitement is a media construct not anything that is important to a voter or a requirement of an election. The world is run by those how show up and voters who show up run the world. Engagement

There is a whole new world of election information and citizen engagement that the Internet has wrought that Professor McCormick misses. I don’t know the gentleman but presume, as an academic, he is likely not an active partisan either. So he does not likely know the “excitement measures” and volunteer engagement that is internal to any election campaign either. But I could be wrong.

There is so much going on beyond the Professor’s tests of “coffee shop” chatter, the “sign wars,” paid advertising levels, opinion polls and voting day turn out. Not that they are not "measurements" but they are unreliable and increasingly irrelevant in the brave new (and morphing) world of elections.

Coffee shops are hardly representative samples of public opinion – especially in the go-go economy of Alberta…who has time to take extended coffee breaks to talk politics these days? Sign wars are becoming passé as well for three reasons, fewer people have party allegiances, fewer have time to volunteer and more are seeing them as pollution - visual and otherwise.

There is so much opportunity for earned media in an election that to resort to paid advertising to get your message out is the price you have to pay for being boring. Opinion polls and focus groups are a joke but MSM loves them for reasons of simplicity. “Opinion” polls are hardly representative of anything of substance anymore. This is because most people refuse to participate and those who do are as likely to lie to the pollsters as they are to tell the truth. I saw a great bumper sticker years ago. It said “Save Democracy – Lie to a Pollster.” Sound advice in some circles.

Voting day turn out is an accurate measurement of citizen engagement and I have no quibble with that but the Get Out The Vote (GOTV) efforts of the candidates has a huge impact on turnout totals. That leads me to other real “excitement” measures internal to campaigns. The participation rate of campaign volunteers, the number of mail drops that get done the number of doors knocked, the number of phone calls made by volunteers – not professional services and ultimately – the amount of money raised are the real reliable measures of excitement and engagement in an election.

Then you have the phenomenon of the internet and the impact of Influentials as truer tests of excitement/engagement. Actual Bloggers who are citizen journalists and columnists who have a wide active readership and the amount of posts they do, ther new and returning and traffic requency plus the comment activity are all reliable measurement of excitement for a very a active and growing group of citizens. You Tube and Facebook activity is another modern measurement of political excitement/engagement any conventional observer would miss. Website traffic, readership, content updates and the number of active links are the new “coffee shop” for busy people - and a better measure of actual excitement and engagement.

The number of interest group surveys promulgated and targeted issues related campaign efforts directed at political parties and individual candidates are a better measure of citizen interest and engagement. The complexity of the issues being discussed in a campaign (and there are lots of complex issues these days) that are not being dumbed down by leaders and candidates is a more sophisticated measure of campaign effectiveness in their out reach to voters.

Readers of this Blog often hear me say campaign matter…and they do. What also matters is the new means and models of election campaigning that we have now emerged to reach voters and to be reached by voters. This technology had made it possible to have a dialogue and a virtual conversation between candidate and citizen – one-on-one actually for those candidates who blog too. The filter and traditional political agenda setting of the MSM is no longer dominant and new influential voices, like real bloggers, are publishing a wider range of input and opinion.

Old style politics are still around as are old style election techniques and commentary, but they are no longer mainstream. They are definitely not a measure of what is really going on in politics and elections these days either.

Pembina Institute Releases the Candidate Survey Findings.

The Pembina Institute has been busy focused on oil sands development issues. They released the results of the candidate survey they did on some development issues on the oilsands. They got great participation – 192 individual responses that covered the gamut of political parties too…not shabby at all.

They surveyed issues on pace of development, GHG management, reclamation and the role of government. The interesting thing is to compare the candidate responses and see how much they align with the earlier poll results of Albertans done in 2007. Then 74% agreed the government should manage the rate of growth to better serve the long term needs of Albertans. Then 71% supported suspending oil sands approvals until infrastructure and environmental management issues could be addressed in the Wood Buffalo region.

This is what the Mayor and Council of the Regional Municipality of Wood Buffalo has been saying. They have even intervened in EUB hearing to make that point. The EUB deferred to the government on those points in recent approval decisions even though they had jurisdiction to dictate some appropriate conditions.

The issue of developing the oil sands as fast as possible, the Greens are way out in front on the issues and the Wildrose Alliance are way behind on the issues. That should not be a surprise. However the big three parties are all very close to each other, all disagreeing in the 75-85% range. There should be little difficulty getting a consensus in the next sitting of the Legislature provided the government poses the questions appropriately.

The question needs to be posed as a policy initiative too because in 2007 67% of Albertans disagreed with developing the oil sands as fast as possible. Maybe the politicians are up to speed on the public sentiment on the pace of development issue. Now does the leadership have the courage to get in front of that parade?

On the idea of government suspending new project approvals until infrastructure and environmental management issues are addressed there is a significant difference between the parties. In 2007 71% of Albertans agreed with a suspension of project approvals to let us catch our breath and catch up to the demands we are already facing. The Libs, Greens and NDP candidates were all stronger in agreeing with this approach than the public. About half of the PC and Alliance candidates were aligned with the public’s agreement and 30- 40% were totally off side with public sentiment on this issue.

Reclamation is a big issue for the energy companies and one they ignore at their peril. The issue is should project approvals only be granted IF companies can demonstrate now that they can restore mined areas back to the way they were. In 2007 88% of Albertans agreed with this condition of project approval. The Libs, Greens and Dipper candidates wee bunched together at about 80% agreeing. Ironically the Lib and Dippers were slightly strong on this than the Green candidates. There were about 70% of the PCs and Wild-Alliance candidates agreeing. Ironically again the Wild-Alliance candidates were slightly ahead of the PCs on this issue and in both instances off side with the party platform and the positions of their leaders.

As to what should drive the pace of oil sands development about 60% of the Wild-Alliance and 15% of the PCs said the marketplace should be the control factor. Government management was preferred by 75% of PC candidates and virtually 100% of the Greens, Dippers and Libs. The public position was 74% wanting government management. PCs are aligned, the Wild Alliance is behind the issue and the other parties are ahead of public sentiment.

On the hard cap versus intensity standards of GHG emissions, 70% of Albertans wanted hard caps. Libs and Dippers are 99% to 95% in favour and the Greens are about 90% in favour. There are only 25% of PCs who what hard caps and that is even less than the Wild-Alliance candidates. Again the right is off side with public sentiment.

As a PC member I can say our policy position has to change for political reasons and if we are to exercise the proper roles and responsibilities needed to better serve the public interest. I see evidence of that change coming about in the recent changes from Ed Stelmach…see my earlier posting on the Premier’s evolution on a partial moratorium request to government from CEMA. I hope the Premier’s office reads these results and the Cambridge Strategies oil sands survey results too – and takes them to heart.