The CanWest poll published in the Edmonton Journal and the Calgary Herald today has some interesting and some unsettling results. The Alberta election is clearly a two horse race, or more accurately a PC horse (40%) and a half a Liberal horse at (18%) support.
There is no clear ballot question this election and we see there is no clear attitudinal consistency for voters in the election either. I say this because 45% say the PCs should be re-elected and 45% want a change in government. Even more (54%) in Calgary want a change in government but that may be holdover angst from the PC leadership outcome that shocked and unnerved them.
The reality is those who want a change of government have not seen a viable alternative in the other parties. The other reality is the undecided at 27% this late into the election. With no burning issue or no viable alternative to the PCs and about half of them having no inking of which party or leader they are even leaning towards, it is likely the undecided Albertans will stay home.
If the PCs become complacent over getting out the vote or some supporters may want to stay home to send a message to the party, as expected in Calgary, then the overall turnout is going to be abysmally low. That means there are going to be more close races in many places in urban Alberta. The Wildrose Alliance supporters will show up but they don’t have that many candidates running. Will the WAP supporters show for a second choice PC or just stay home? I doubt it.
The other question is how much can we rely on these polls these days. Strategic Counsel did one on the Alberta election in mid January for the Globe and Mail. They had the PCs at 58%, much higher than today. The Liberals at 19% and the NDP were at 9%, same as they are today.
The Strategic Counsel poll had a much stronger likelihood of vote switching at 41% agreeing they might change their opinions on Election Day whereas only 25% in the Leger poll are likely to switch support on Election Day. The Strategic Counsel poll noted PCs were the second choice for 29% of Liberals. A full 32% of PC had the Liberals as their second choice so there is fluidity there too.
I think 40% PC support this close to Election Day is a good sign for the PC Party. Not because it is high. It isn’t. But it should be a sobering reality that spurs on the PC volunteers to get on the phones and get out their vote. The Liberals will be disheartened with this result because it underscores that there time has not come – even with a strong desire for a change of government.
My sense is this poll is not conclusive of anything and that is not a challenge to the instrument design or anything else. I think each party has a core support that will show but there is a sense that the PC support is more “normative” than heartfelt beyond the hard core group. I think many people will make up their minds to vote or not this weekend and if they show up many of them will hold off a final binding vote decision up to the time they pick up the pencil in the voting booth.
As a PC supporter I am reassured by the Leger poll results but I am not confident enough yet to be taking any bets on the final outcome.
There is no clear ballot question this election and we see there is no clear attitudinal consistency for voters in the election either. I say this because 45% say the PCs should be re-elected and 45% want a change in government. Even more (54%) in Calgary want a change in government but that may be holdover angst from the PC leadership outcome that shocked and unnerved them.
The reality is those who want a change of government have not seen a viable alternative in the other parties. The other reality is the undecided at 27% this late into the election. With no burning issue or no viable alternative to the PCs and about half of them having no inking of which party or leader they are even leaning towards, it is likely the undecided Albertans will stay home.
If the PCs become complacent over getting out the vote or some supporters may want to stay home to send a message to the party, as expected in Calgary, then the overall turnout is going to be abysmally low. That means there are going to be more close races in many places in urban Alberta. The Wildrose Alliance supporters will show up but they don’t have that many candidates running. Will the WAP supporters show for a second choice PC or just stay home? I doubt it.
The other question is how much can we rely on these polls these days. Strategic Counsel did one on the Alberta election in mid January for the Globe and Mail. They had the PCs at 58%, much higher than today. The Liberals at 19% and the NDP were at 9%, same as they are today.
The Strategic Counsel poll had a much stronger likelihood of vote switching at 41% agreeing they might change their opinions on Election Day whereas only 25% in the Leger poll are likely to switch support on Election Day. The Strategic Counsel poll noted PCs were the second choice for 29% of Liberals. A full 32% of PC had the Liberals as their second choice so there is fluidity there too.
I think 40% PC support this close to Election Day is a good sign for the PC Party. Not because it is high. It isn’t. But it should be a sobering reality that spurs on the PC volunteers to get on the phones and get out their vote. The Liberals will be disheartened with this result because it underscores that there time has not come – even with a strong desire for a change of government.
My sense is this poll is not conclusive of anything and that is not a challenge to the instrument design or anything else. I think each party has a core support that will show but there is a sense that the PC support is more “normative” than heartfelt beyond the hard core group. I think many people will make up their minds to vote or not this weekend and if they show up many of them will hold off a final binding vote decision up to the time they pick up the pencil in the voting booth.
As a PC supporter I am reassured by the Leger poll results but I am not confident enough yet to be taking any bets on the final outcome.
Stelmach is the luckiest guy in the province. He bumbles along saying nonsense and the sheeple still vote PC.
ReplyDeleteIn case you are not prepared to acknowledge his bummbling and dissmebling comments here is one egregious example:
http://www.canada.com/edmontonjournal/features/albertavotes/story.html?id=e897b190-acb9-459e-999e-67ed70fc279b&k=84204
Ken,
ReplyDeleteYou will want to see the actual Leger release once it becomes available because it will likely paint a different picture for you. You will remember the last poll, where the Journal and Herald suggested that the PC, Lib, ND numbers were 32%, 18%, and 7% respectively. Leger's release focused on the decideds and these numbers: 49, 28, and 11. Much rosier numbers. Considering the numbers for "change" and "undecideds" are pretty much the same for both polls, once Leger releases their full numbers, the PC number is likely to jump over 50.
Since Strategic Counsel and Environics didn't publish their undecided numbers you have to go with the higher batch just to compare apples to apples.
I don't think that your comment is a fair assessment of Ed Stelmach the man or the Premier.
ReplyDeleteI know he has done a great many decisive things that have been substantial changes in the past year. He can, and must, do even more after this election. I fully expect he will continue to shake things up and make substantial changes for the benefit of all Albertans once he has his own electoral mandate.
I don't agree with everything he has said or all the positions he takes but I, like any citizen in an open and free deomcracy, get to say so - and I do.
Thx Dave at 4:33 for the information on the implications of the Leger poll results.
ReplyDeleteIf you are right on an effective 50% support for Stelmach - a significant majority is in the bag on Monday, wouldn't you agree?
How confident are you on that possibility?
I don't know if I am confident or not. The numbers aren't completely out of whack with some of the other surveys out there so I guess I should be pleased if I am a PC (which I am). But I have trouble believing that so many people are just going to stay home. If they do, or break out similar to the decideds so far then it should be smooth sailing for steady eddie.
ReplyDeleteWhat I do know is that Taft and Mason appear stalled since the campaign began. Time is running out for them (Taft especially) to move the meter. That Dr. Daft hasn't been able to close the sale so far makes me think it won't happen - what could he possibly have left in his arsenal? If he's got something, he had better use it FAST.
Just curious, Ken.. and not to put you on the spot.. but how can you claim to be a "progressive" blogger and yet support the Alberta PC party? What is exactly so "progressive" about them?
ReplyDeleteThere is lots progressive stuff about the PC party...and they can do better and I work on that too...but not anonymously.
ReplyDeleteNot to put you on the spot - but who are you?
Everyone is telling Stelmach to hit the brakes on oil sands development and he is refusing to do so. He's a fool, another dinosaur like Klein.
ReplyDeleteWe have got to get a government that can act intelligently to deal with the climate change crisis; the PCs can't and won't.
He would better be described as a liberal blogger who supports the PC Party because they are in power (and his company gets contracts from the PC Government - and he also lobbies the government).
ReplyDeleteThey can't do better, they've had decades to try and do better. Today was an especially disheartening day to be an Albertan.
ReplyDeleteBetween blatantly lying about the job losses associated with the Liberal's CC policy, withholding government reports, constantly touting the virtues of unfettered free markets, and finally accusing reporters of being liberal supporters when they suggest he is mistaken, I think Stelmach is starting to look a lot like Klein.
I respect that you want to change things from the inside, but at least acknowledge what you're up against. It's time to take off those rose colored glasses, Ken.
As a federal liberal, i am sure you have been watching the polls and realized that you were going to lose an election. Thank you for supporting Canada's Conservative Government!
ReplyDeleteAnon @ 8:17 - I have been watching the federal polls and they tell me there is no need for an election, because Canadians don't want one.
ReplyDeleteThe federal polls say we would waste $350m on an election and just get another minority government. Why waste the time and money?
Harper is running out of gas and gall...as the budget and the Afghanistan compromise proves.
I think he will have to dig deep and become a statesman pretty quickly - or he will be seen as a dufus with all the tact and guile of a Mulroney as time goes by.
Harper says he likes the job of PM of a minority government. He now has the chance to prove he can do that job given that the Libs are now ready willing and able to launch an election whenever THEY feel like it.
I hope for Harper's sake - and yours too..."that the goin' up will be worth the comin' down!" (with apologies to Kris Kristofferson)
"I, like any citizen in an open and free democracy, get to say so - and I do."
ReplyDeleteBut not at a party policy convention. Many of us former P"C"s finally had enough of the meaningless policy conventions where the premier's office and cabinet would then just go ahead and ignore us.
Hi Brian - I helped organize many of those policy conferences in the days of "Ralph's World." The Premier's office hated them (not Ralph) but they always backed down and obliged and participated actively in the events.
ReplyDeleteDid they act on the outcomes...yes at times but remember a policy resolution is a party position and not a mandate for action to a government - nor should it be. It is just more input into the public policy making process.
Ralph did not understand or embrace the role of the Party and he didn't have to for most of his reign because of his personal popularity in Alberta.
At the end of the day however it was the Party who saw that he had to go and they pushed him overboard at a Convention - when Ralph's personal popularity was over 70%.
MSM media thought it was an act of political madness but they don't really understand the role and responsibility of a political party either. C'est la vie.
Keep door knocking and phoning Brian - not much time left in the campaign and my sense is voters will decide this weekend.
Good luck!
Funnny, I heard a rumour that Harper flew in all 28 MPs to vote against Klein. The federal Conservative government: using our tax dollars to pay off personal vendettas.
ReplyDeleteGot any proof Holly? If not why add to the cynicism of citizens without substantiation.
ReplyDeleteI have no proof. I find it believable. And I am more than cynical about Harper: I hate his anti-Canadian, anti-democratic, narcissistic, censoring, sycophantic, lying, vicious guts.
ReplyDeleteI don't like Klein much either, and I believe the rumours about his past, too. He's done damage to Alberta; but Harper is destroying Canada.
By the way, Ken, were you at that vote? Were all 28 MPs there? Did they arrive together?
ReplyDeleteHolly - you are usually pretty rational...this is not one of those times.
ReplyDeleteBreath deep - think blue and relax.
You should have quit the comment when you said "I have no proof...but I believe." Not good enough - even for the blogosphere...and I think you know it.
How patronizing of you. I made it clear that it was a rumour, although I believe the person who told it to me believes it and may be in a position to know.
ReplyDeleteAnd I notice that you did not answer my questions.
Morning Holly - I was not being patronizing at all - just disappointed.
ReplyDeleteRumours from anonymous sources with serious allegations that have no evidence or substantiation is the stuff of old style dirty politics. It is reminiscent of the Nixon era.
In your previous comments you never struck me as a person who indulged in this. Give us facts, names and evidence behind such allegations if you are prepared to promote them - so we can judge the veracity. Without more we can only focus on your veracity.
Innuendo does not advance democracy.
So tell us all the "truth" you know about this allegations and identify your source if we are to give your comment any credibility.
I said from the beginning that it was a rumour. How could I find out if it is true or not without mentioning it?
ReplyDeleteIf you really do care about democracy, and not just politics, then spend some time discussing how the federal Conservative government is censoring Environment Canada just like the Bush administration tried to censor US scientists over climate change. Look at how it is planning to censor films by changing the funding rules. Note that Stockwell Day is involved, who wanted in 1994 to ban books he didn't like from schools, including Of Mice and Men.
We have a Conservative war on science and a Conservative war on Canadian culture. HWe need to destroy Harper before he destroys Canada.
If it is only a rumour - why mention it??? What does it add to the discourse that is of any substance?
ReplyDeleteI did s short post on the Con-Cadman Affair this morning. More to come from me on the Cons governance culture of coersion and intimidation re Cadman and in science and film next week.
My focus now is the Alberta election and trying to keep some paying client's happy at the same time.