Ed Stelmach's Astonishing Election Results

So what did the Alberta election results tell us? The results astonished just about everyone I spoke to except one of my staffers who yesterday about noon predicted 71 PC seats . All the people I know and who are “in the know” about these things were mostly thinking 55-60 seats and some were at the 65 level but we all admitted we did not know for sure. We were all surprised.

I think this result was a vote for change. It was a change away from the "Ralph’s World" but not a desire to change the fundamental governing philosophy of the province from a Progressive and Conservative party. My Stelmach endorsement post the other day asked Albertans to “Give Ed a Chance.” I think that is what many Albertans decided to do as they took the weekend to think about the future of the province and reflect on the choices they had in the election.

The Calgary results show that the “energy industry silk suits” don’t speak for the people of that city. The negative/attack ads against Stelmach done by the Building Trades Council, the Alberta Federation of Labour and later the Alberta Union of Public Employees under the guise of “Albertans for Change” backfired. The belittling branding of Stelmach as just a “Ukrainian Farmer” backfired.

The Liberal campaign tried to tell Albertans that the PC government that they had chosen to govern the province for 37 years had been a mistake...the electorates mistake. Albertans did not believe that nothing had changed in how they were governed in the past 37 years and the strategy backfired. The Liberal campaign ran as much against Ralph Klein’s record and did not focus on the future under them - or Ed Stelmach. I think that strategy misfired.

So 53% of Albertans who showed up, chose a decent man with a big heart who they acknowledged, had spent most of his 15 months as Premier, fixing the screw ups of the past administration. In that 15 months Ed also showed he was prepared to take on big new challenges like the regional governance in the Capital Region, a royalty review that he opened up to all Albertans to read and respond to right along with him and his government. That new openness created an energetic public policy conversation amongst Albertans on big issues - and it was a big change.

I think the Alberta public collected their wisdom together on Election Day and decided Ed was a change, and if nothing else, a change from “Ralph World.” They decided he deserved a real chance to be our Premier but with this own mandate and the opportunity to set his own course. He got his chance in spades in this election and now he has to show us what he will do and how he will do it - without having to pick up after Ralph anymore.

I think there are some serious challenges for the Stelmach PCs. They have some policy blind spots that became apparent in this election but that too can be fixed. The first test of a blind spot that needs fixing from Ed's past will be his Cabinet selection. He can’t repeat the mistakes of an over abundance of loyalty like last time. He should not take the "easy way out" of a larger Cabinet either, because there is no real need to increase the size, at least not significantly.

In fact there is such a dire need for more interdepartmental collaboration in government these days that a key test for any Cabinet appointment should be the person’s ability to collaborate, integrate, design and then execute policy decisions. I am keen that he keeps a small Cabinet and goes forward with his best and brightest people, mixing those of proven experience and ability with some promising newbies - and of course being very very careful to provide the necessary geographical mix.

I know some will be concerned that with 73 seats the Stelmach government may turn arrogant, self-absorbed and self-satisfied. Perhaps that could happen - under a different leader - but not under Ed Stelmach. That is not his nature nor part of his character. He will have to be careful to show that he will not tolerate those attitudes in anyone else in his government either. After all, as the “renewed Premier” says, governing is a privilege that has to be earned. He knows that privilege has to be earned everyday and in every way – not just at election time.

This is part of the point Ed Stelmach made last night at his victory celebration in Edmonton when he said, “It is not about how long you govern but how well you govern.” Let’s get going on some damn good governing!

Congratulations for this victory are also due to the entire Stelmach family – both personal and political. Well done and thank you.

Thanks To All Those Candidates Who Ran and Some Advice to Those Who Won.

There are almost 500 individual Albertans who have offered the rest of us their time and talents and have taken some serious time out of their lives to run for public office in this election. They represent a wide range of skills, experiences and qualities, some of them even applicable to a successful political life and some even applicable for governing. The rest of us can judge them as we wish because that is our right, after all, they are the ones seeking our consent to allow them to govern us. That citizen consent ought not to be granted lightly because we delegate a great deal of power to our elected representatives.

The irony of the paradox between politics and governing is that they are entirely different things. I call it the Catch 23 of our electoral system. The talents it takes to get the job, by using politics, are very different from the talents and skills needed to do the actual job of governing.

The vast majority of candidates will lose today and 83 will “win.” To win means your life will totally change. Privacy will be a thing of the past. You personal life will be public property as will most of your time. While you have governing to do you also have a constituency to represent and those are made up of real people with real problems. You are expected to be their advocate and to cut the red tape and the crap of government for them.

You will have to learn how to deal with the media and now to stay out of trouble and on message as dictated by your leader and his advisors. No political points are given for originality and as for freelancing -forget it - it comes with a cost.


You have to stake out your areas of interest and there better be more than just 3 or 4 key issues. You will have to become knowledgeable and authoritative and stay absolutely current in all of them if you are to be taken seriously. If you are taken seriously you will be pressed by special interests to become a political champion for them on those key issues. That is often a trap but not always. You will have to learn how to tell the difference and deal with it.

You will have to learn how to deal with a creature called a caucus and be a team player but also establish yourself as a thought-leader with a respected opinion if you are going to be effective at getting anything done. The art of persuasion and a facility at biting your tongue will be concurrent skills you will have to learn and hone.


You will have to create and collect something called political capital and learn how to use it to horse trade with you colleagues if you want to get thing done – especially if you are in government.


You will have to learn how to account for your expenses to the penny and round off program budgets like health and education to the nearest few million. You will have to learn to be prudent and cautious, innovative and imaginative, then grounded and transformational - all at the same time and see no conflict in that creative non-fiction approach to life.


You will have to learn to take a bullet for the mistakes of others, including your leaders, who may be prove to be fools from time to time - but they are your fools, get over it. You will have to suffer through too many official dinners, receptions, special events and community gatherings that will constantly take you away from your family and your sanity. You better like people because they are going to be everywhere in your life and many will think they own a part of you. Be especially afraid of those people.

You are going to be constantly judged and scrutinized by everyone you meet everywhere and all the time. They are entitled to be wrong in their opinions about you but they are still entitled tell everyone what they think about you anyway - and they will…mostly behind your back.

You will never again, while in public office, be entitled to presume you are having a private and personal conversation with anyone, anywhere at any time, including with your closest friends. Everything you say can and will become public, in some form or other, and if possible, used against you.

I understand from those who love both politics and governing that it is amongst the most rewarding thing you can do – if you are good at it. So thanks all of those who took the plunge and ran for purposes of the common good of the rest of us Albertans. Special thanks the leaders of the various political parties and for those who won. Very speical thanks in particular those who will get the call to become Cabinet Ministers.

Congratulations. Our prayers are with you…as is our future…no pressure!

CalgaryGrit: Stelmach's Environment Minister calls for a new NEP - I DON'T THINK SO!

Tip of the Hat to the CalgaryGrit for posting a video clip of Rob Renner, Alberta's Minister of the Environment.

Rob Renner's comments in the CalgaryGrit posted video clip and the reference to CEMA proposal have nothing remotely to do with the NEP, as the "Grit" would have you believe.

However this video clip of Renner is a great example of why I think Renner is a great Minister of the Environment for Alberta. We need him back in that job right after tomorrow nights election results.

Want the "Final Word" on the Alberta Election Results - It's In the Stars!

Finally, we have a political analysis on the Alberta election that eschews the pretense of authenticity of opinion polls. Check out the range of scientific the various opinion poll results we have been getting from numerous sources on the Alberta election.

Rick Mercer shows us the dark underbelly truth about polls and just because it is funny does not mean what he says isn't true.

I plan to drink some wine tonight and get out the Ouija Board and do some serious prognostication about the election results myself.

Remember the world is run by those who show up and in a democracy you always get the government you deserve - whether you voted or not.

Show up and vote tomorrow. It is only about you having your say about the future of Alberta that is at stake here. No big whoop!

Edmonton Riverview Survey Shows BIG UNDECIDED NUMBERS

There is a kind of hush all over the province this week end as Albertans reflect on the future of their province and who will best serve as our next Premier. Then there is the question of which local candidate is the most aligned with the personal perspectives and aspirations of voters to represent them in the Legislature. Not an easy decision but one an informed and engaged citizen must make on Monday.

There is one constituency where the weekend hush of reflection has been replaced by a vigorous campaign BUZZ. That BUZZ is what is happening in Edmonton Riverview where the PC candidate Wendy Andrews and her Green Theme as has snuck up on Alberta Liberal Leader, Kevin Taft.

A recent telephone survey of 3,453 Edmonton Riverview constituents was done by Banister Research. The findings are the basis for the PC BUZZ in this constituency campaign. Change is in the political air in Alberta in this election and these survey results prove it in spades.

Look at these numbers. There were 12409 original constituency household phone numbers called last week. There were 3,453 actual respondents who were asked would they support Wendy Andrews, yes or no. Here is what they said. There were 992 (28.7%) who supported the PC’s Andrews and 1,092 (31.6%) who will not.

Here is the kicker!!! There are 1369 – that is 39.6% - who are UNDECIDED in Edmonton Riverview at this late stage of the campaign.

This is in Alberta Liberal Leader, Kevin Taft’s home riding. Last election the Alberta Liberal leader, Dr. Kevin Taft got 65% of the vote. This time he looks like he is in a much closer contest. Time will tell.

This survey result has the makings of an upset if those undecided voters show up for change in the form of the Wendy Andrews and her Fresh Thinking green theme campaign. My guess is the Wendy Andrew’s Get-Out-The-Vote volunteers will be energized and vigorous on Monday. Will it be panicky and nerve-wracking for the Taft campaign in Edmonton Riverview tomorrow? Looks like it.

In any event getting out the vote is what will make ALL the difference in the Edmonton Riverview outcome on Monday night. Based on the size of the undecided factor, Edmonton Riverview just became another key race for the whole province to watch.