I love how the communications media works. It has been 40 years of oil sands development that has been going on in Alberta. There is over $100B of oil sands investment committed and in the mill. We have envoys in Washington working diligently to get some attention amongst American energy sector influentials but only with middling to moderate success.
Then one visit by Warren Buffett and he is going to generate as much attention as the 500 dead ducks did. If the goal of the promoters of the Buffett visit was to neutralize the 500 dead ducks they will be disappointed. He will draw attention to the oil sands but it will not draw attention away from the ecological issues in oil sands development as the same time. The economic and ecological aspects will both be in play and there will be voices demanding reconciliation of these two aspects. Buffett will be amongst those voices I expect.
Buffett's junket will no doubt generate lots of media and market interests. It will also start to make Americans much more aware that they have a real solid solution to their dependence on Middle East and Hugo Chavez for energy supply tight here in little 'ol boring Canada. The Alberta government can also save its $25,000,000 for an advertising campaign to try and buy respect now that Warren Buffett is in the media mix. He will generate more positive publicity and buzz for the oil sands than any high paid pandering program would ever do.
There are other consequences of the Buffett Buzz. The oil addicted American energy consumer will soon go beyond being profoundly ignorant or passively indifferent to the potential of oil sands. They will wake up to the fact that Alberta is a peaceful, stable, secure, friendly, reliable and an already enormous energy supplier to the lower 50 States. They will soon be insisting we aggressively ramp up oil sands production to meet their growing needs. That is a more serious problem. We can't go faster that we are. We also have to develop the oil sands in the most integrated and sustainable way possible. We must not just push the development in the most rapid way possible without careful planning. We need to figure out how to optimize economic outcomes and avoid or effectively mitigate the inevitable ecological damage. We also have to ensure we have the necessary public infrastructure in place and on time so we don't destroy the social fabric of Alberta at the same time.
We can't go too fast for many reasons including realistic limiting factors like the skills and labour shortages, material shortage, insufficient upgrading, refining and transportation capacity. We have not even talked about the impact on land, air and water plus the growing natural capital deficit due to the unrequited reclamation requirements.
Besides that we have many other international players already involved in oil sands projects including Japan, France and Norway to name a few. China is here too but will be investing even more aggressively soon. Ireland just arrived I understand. There is a constant back and forth of Middle East oil industry players visiting Fort McMurray. They too are no doubt kicking tires looking for investment opportunities. India is even scouting the oil sands possibilities.
What if they all want oil sands for security of energy supply too? Alberta may need its own foreign policy before too long now that Buffett has blown the lid of the secret of the oil sands. I wonder how Ottawa is going to react to that? Harper is keen on providing more provincial powers. Alberta may have to press him on providing them as part of the pending election.
Buffett is not a spin-meister. He is listened to and highly respected. He is on NBC television on Friday talking oil sands. What he says will have a significant impact on the industry and the future of Alberta for years to come. Albertans better fasten their seat belts. It could be a rough and tumble ride depending on what Warren Buffett says.
Wednesday, August 20, 2008
Swann Runs for the Alberta Liberal Leadership
David Swann is in the race for the leadership of the Alberta Liberal leadership race. It is as I suspected and I am not surprised he did not pursue a new party approach. A new party demands you gather a swack of signatures from a bunch of diverse, disgruntled and disengaged Albertans and then try and mould them into a unified political force, all within four years. That would a quixotic adventure at best.
He is by far the best candidate in the Liberal Leadership running so far based on insight, intelligence and ability to listen and learn. He is also a reluctant politician. He got into the political arena to respond to the injustice and unfairness of being fired for speaking out as a medical health officer. That all appeared to be about pure politics. I kind of like reluctant politicians. Ambitious politicos like Stephen Harper make me nervous. I like the pure laine servant leader types who are in it for the opportunity to be of service to the public and not about wielding power. My reading of Swann is he fits the servant leader mould well.
I got to know a bit about David Swann this past week end because we were both at the Keepers of the Water Conference in Fort Chipewyan. We coincidentally flew up together on Friday and he was scheduled to fly out later that day. The conference was so significant that he stayed over and we had some time to sit and chat about issues facing the province and the state of democracy in Alberta.
We share a concern over the decline of citizen participation in the political and public life of the province. He said many Albertans were “allergic to politics.” When he said that, I remember thinking two things, first, he is right. My second reaction was wow a medical doctor who can use a metaphor in a meaningful way. There may be hope for this guy in political leadership. He is clearly a social progressive and ecologically conservationist Albertan and wants a responsible and sustainable economic regime.
Regardless of policy and issues, Job 1 for the next Alberta Liberal leader will be to pay off the party debts of about $700,000.00. They simply can’t be a viable alternative if they are fiscally vulnerable and can’t afford to campaign effectively. Swann showed he can raise money and did pretty well comparatively speaking in the fund raising for his constituency run last election.
If he wins, he has to show he can push a bigger rock up a steeper and longer hill and get some serious dollars donated to kill the deficit in the Liberal coffers. Given the political culture of Alberta, Swann is not likely to find 70 donors with $10K each. In fact what he needs to do is find 7000 Albertans with $100 each to come to the aid of the Alberta Liberal party. That would be more effective politically too. The good news is there are at least a couple of years to get it done given that the next Alberta election is about four years hence.
Stelmach was profound in his victory speech when he won the PC leadership saying “Nice guys can finish first.” Same could be - and should be - true for David Swann in this campaign. Glad to see quality people, regardless of party affiliations, still prepared to put their private lives on the line, their careers on hold, and stand for public office in hopes of serving the greater good…
He is by far the best candidate in the Liberal Leadership running so far based on insight, intelligence and ability to listen and learn. He is also a reluctant politician. He got into the political arena to respond to the injustice and unfairness of being fired for speaking out as a medical health officer. That all appeared to be about pure politics. I kind of like reluctant politicians. Ambitious politicos like Stephen Harper make me nervous. I like the pure laine servant leader types who are in it for the opportunity to be of service to the public and not about wielding power. My reading of Swann is he fits the servant leader mould well.
I got to know a bit about David Swann this past week end because we were both at the Keepers of the Water Conference in Fort Chipewyan. We coincidentally flew up together on Friday and he was scheduled to fly out later that day. The conference was so significant that he stayed over and we had some time to sit and chat about issues facing the province and the state of democracy in Alberta.
We share a concern over the decline of citizen participation in the political and public life of the province. He said many Albertans were “allergic to politics.” When he said that, I remember thinking two things, first, he is right. My second reaction was wow a medical doctor who can use a metaphor in a meaningful way. There may be hope for this guy in political leadership. He is clearly a social progressive and ecologically conservationist Albertan and wants a responsible and sustainable economic regime.
Regardless of policy and issues, Job 1 for the next Alberta Liberal leader will be to pay off the party debts of about $700,000.00. They simply can’t be a viable alternative if they are fiscally vulnerable and can’t afford to campaign effectively. Swann showed he can raise money and did pretty well comparatively speaking in the fund raising for his constituency run last election.
If he wins, he has to show he can push a bigger rock up a steeper and longer hill and get some serious dollars donated to kill the deficit in the Liberal coffers. Given the political culture of Alberta, Swann is not likely to find 70 donors with $10K each. In fact what he needs to do is find 7000 Albertans with $100 each to come to the aid of the Alberta Liberal party. That would be more effective politically too. The good news is there are at least a couple of years to get it done given that the next Alberta election is about four years hence.
Stelmach was profound in his victory speech when he won the PC leadership saying “Nice guys can finish first.” Same could be - and should be - true for David Swann in this campaign. Glad to see quality people, regardless of party affiliations, still prepared to put their private lives on the line, their careers on hold, and stand for public office in hopes of serving the greater good…
More Oil Sands Issues Get Added to the Mix and Start Heating Up
As Alice said in her Wonderland “it is getting curiousier and curiousier” particularly as the continuing saga of the Alberta oil sands unfolds. We had dead ducks and now freaky fish are being found in the waters in the Fort Chipewyan area. The “Dirty Oil” label is sticking and gaining traction as the ENGO protesters are picking up the pace and pursuing this messaging with some serious persistence.
The recent secret visit to Fort McMurray by Bill Gates and Warren Buffett will draw even more American media and special interest group attention to the oil sands. We can expect lots of buzz coming out of this trip, especially given the American cultural proclivity for celebrating celebrity.
The oil sands are now going to be in the geo-political cross hairs more than ever as a result for these guys paying us this recent visit. The oil sands are significant in so many ways like as an enormous energy resource, a gigantic investment opportunity, and a massive set of ecological issues. It even has to be considered as a potential terrorist target too given it strategic importance to North American continental energy supply and security.
We now have another chapter as many of the northern First Nations Chiefs from Alberta, BC, Saskatchewan and the NWT got together this past weekend in Fort Chipewyan. They are drawing a line in the water by unanimously passing a “Keepers of the Water Declaration. The Declaration was “…affirming water is a sacred trust and a fundamental human right.” The First Nation leadership is committed to “taking all necessary steps in our power to protect our lands, sustain our communities and assert our rights.”
The First Nations Chiefs at the Keepers of the Water Conference agreed to launch a legal action to assert their rights, build unity between the First Nations Communities and work with other organizations that support their goals. This set of aspirations reminds me of an African Proverb that says “If you want to go fast, go alone. If you want to go far, go as a group.”
Looks like northern First Nations through their Keepers of the Water Declaration have decided to take the longer road and to go together. That has to be a good thing. In fact former Premier of the Northwest Territories Steven Kakfwi told me his reaction to the Keepers of the Water Declaration saying “This is as good as it gets.”
I’m thinking the Keepers of the Water Declaration will be seen as an historic moment in Canadian history. Not as big a deal as the Last Spike or the Queen signing the Charter of Rights and Freedoms perhaps. I think it will definitely be in the next level of significant historic events in the maturation of Canada and First Nations relations as they continue to be clarified.
The recent secret visit to Fort McMurray by Bill Gates and Warren Buffett will draw even more American media and special interest group attention to the oil sands. We can expect lots of buzz coming out of this trip, especially given the American cultural proclivity for celebrating celebrity.
The oil sands are now going to be in the geo-political cross hairs more than ever as a result for these guys paying us this recent visit. The oil sands are significant in so many ways like as an enormous energy resource, a gigantic investment opportunity, and a massive set of ecological issues. It even has to be considered as a potential terrorist target too given it strategic importance to North American continental energy supply and security.
We now have another chapter as many of the northern First Nations Chiefs from Alberta, BC, Saskatchewan and the NWT got together this past weekend in Fort Chipewyan. They are drawing a line in the water by unanimously passing a “Keepers of the Water Declaration. The Declaration was “…affirming water is a sacred trust and a fundamental human right.” The First Nation leadership is committed to “taking all necessary steps in our power to protect our lands, sustain our communities and assert our rights.”
The First Nations Chiefs at the Keepers of the Water Conference agreed to launch a legal action to assert their rights, build unity between the First Nations Communities and work with other organizations that support their goals. This set of aspirations reminds me of an African Proverb that says “If you want to go fast, go alone. If you want to go far, go as a group.”
Looks like northern First Nations through their Keepers of the Water Declaration have decided to take the longer road and to go together. That has to be a good thing. In fact former Premier of the Northwest Territories Steven Kakfwi told me his reaction to the Keepers of the Water Declaration saying “This is as good as it gets.”
I’m thinking the Keepers of the Water Declaration will be seen as an historic moment in Canadian history. Not as big a deal as the Last Spike or the Queen signing the Charter of Rights and Freedoms perhaps. I think it will definitely be in the next level of significant historic events in the maturation of Canada and First Nations relations as they continue to be clarified.
Tuesday, August 19, 2008
Gate and Buffett Get the Buzz on the Oil Sands
What gives? Bill Gates and Warren Buffett visit Fort McMurray and don't even stop by to say hello? I was in Fort McMurray for over three hours on Monday and never saw these dudes. I was on a lay over on my way home from the Water Keepers Conference in Fort Chipewyan. More on that later.
I was having lunch in the Sawridge with Darcy Henton of the Edmonton Journal and fellow traveler Don Reimer of Fort McMurray. I understand everyone in McMurray passes through the Sawridge sometime during the day. Chances are I should have seen Gates and Buffett at the Sawridge given how long, liquid and thoroughly enjoyable our lunch was.
My bet is these billionaires spend their entire Ft. Mc. time flying over the tailing ponds and the open pit mines in their private jet while indulging their common passion playing Bridge together throughout their visit.
Welcome to Alberta gentlemen...and don't forget to consider the societal and ecological aspects of this investment opportunity. Don't forget to insist on an integrated, responsible, sustainable and comprehensive development approach as you consider the oil sands as the best option for a secure, safe, reliable, close and friendly provider for the future of American energy supply needs.
Next time you're in town, stop by and say hello.
I was having lunch in the Sawridge with Darcy Henton of the Edmonton Journal and fellow traveler Don Reimer of Fort McMurray. I understand everyone in McMurray passes through the Sawridge sometime during the day. Chances are I should have seen Gates and Buffett at the Sawridge given how long, liquid and thoroughly enjoyable our lunch was.
My bet is these billionaires spend their entire Ft. Mc. time flying over the tailing ponds and the open pit mines in their private jet while indulging their common passion playing Bridge together throughout their visit.
Welcome to Alberta gentlemen...and don't forget to consider the societal and ecological aspects of this investment opportunity. Don't forget to insist on an integrated, responsible, sustainable and comprehensive development approach as you consider the oil sands as the best option for a secure, safe, reliable, close and friendly provider for the future of American energy supply needs.
Next time you're in town, stop by and say hello.
Tuesday, August 05, 2008
The Political Ground is Going to be Shifting Between Ottawa, Washington and Alberta
There are strange things happening politically these days. Everything old is becoming new again. In Canada we have Prime Minister Harper promoting asymmetrical open federalism and musing about transferring some international and foreign relations powers to the provinces.
This approach is the same as Joe Clark proposed many years ago in his view of Canada being a “Community of Communities.” Pierre Trudeau, a strong centralist, called Clark the “Head Waiter for the Provinces.” Paul Martin was also becoming very adept in this Head Waiter role too. I wonder if Harper will wear this tag too. Elizabeth May is likely to be the source of such a “reprimand.”
Quebec and Alberta will love the new Harper approach to redefining a decentralized Canada. Many others, primarily those who are Ottawa-dependent and Ontario, who is in economic decline, will see it as weakening Confederation. It will mean that Alberta will become more aggressive in setting up more foreign offices to advance its trade beyond the US and help recruit for labour shortages. This is an idea that is already in the works and bound to happen.
Obama is reviving some old ideas of Ronald Reagan and revising his energy position too. Obama’s suggestion that the Americans release their Strategic Petroleum Reserves to reduce oil prices was a tactic effectively implemented by President Ronald Reagan. In Reagan’s day this policy decision had a dramatic and immediate downward impact on oil prices. Releasing these oil reserves put Alberta’s economy immediately into the dumpster.
This happened just before the NEP took hold, which would have devastated the Alberta economy if it was given the chance. The NEP’s disastrous impact on Alberta’s economy is an urban myth because Reagan’s release of the Strategic Oil Reserves actually beat the federal Liberals to the punch in destroying the Alberta economy back then. But we Albertan’s have never “forgotten” the NEP - nor have we ever forgiven the Federal Liberals for it.
Obama is now “nuancing” his off shore drilling opposition and his anti-NAFTA stance now too.
All this Obama shifting has significant implications for Alberta and especially the oil sands development. One of the reasons Obama want to release the Strategic Oil Reserves now is to put light crude on the market to reduce gasoline prices. He also wants to replace the reserves with heavy oil that is lower priced but requires refining. I expect the Americans are going to be looking to Alberta’s oil sands as a long term source of that heavier oil, and why wouldn’t they?
If Obama becomes President with a Democratic Congress and all this happens, the States will soon start seeing the oil sands as their best source for reliable continental energy supply. Then Alberta will need to respond. Alberta's response will be to take advantage of Harper’s new decentralized Canada approach of more provincial powers on international matters.
Alberta will have to establish its own provincial foreign policy to deal directly with the United States. It will start being about energy and environmental matters around processing and exporting of oil sands - a provincially owned natural resource with serious international and geo-political implications. Who knows where it will lead but, one thing for sure, it will be interesting times.
This approach is the same as Joe Clark proposed many years ago in his view of Canada being a “Community of Communities.” Pierre Trudeau, a strong centralist, called Clark the “Head Waiter for the Provinces.” Paul Martin was also becoming very adept in this Head Waiter role too. I wonder if Harper will wear this tag too. Elizabeth May is likely to be the source of such a “reprimand.”
Quebec and Alberta will love the new Harper approach to redefining a decentralized Canada. Many others, primarily those who are Ottawa-dependent and Ontario, who is in economic decline, will see it as weakening Confederation. It will mean that Alberta will become more aggressive in setting up more foreign offices to advance its trade beyond the US and help recruit for labour shortages. This is an idea that is already in the works and bound to happen.
Obama is reviving some old ideas of Ronald Reagan and revising his energy position too. Obama’s suggestion that the Americans release their Strategic Petroleum Reserves to reduce oil prices was a tactic effectively implemented by President Ronald Reagan. In Reagan’s day this policy decision had a dramatic and immediate downward impact on oil prices. Releasing these oil reserves put Alberta’s economy immediately into the dumpster.
This happened just before the NEP took hold, which would have devastated the Alberta economy if it was given the chance. The NEP’s disastrous impact on Alberta’s economy is an urban myth because Reagan’s release of the Strategic Oil Reserves actually beat the federal Liberals to the punch in destroying the Alberta economy back then. But we Albertan’s have never “forgotten” the NEP - nor have we ever forgiven the Federal Liberals for it.
Obama is now “nuancing” his off shore drilling opposition and his anti-NAFTA stance now too.
All this Obama shifting has significant implications for Alberta and especially the oil sands development. One of the reasons Obama want to release the Strategic Oil Reserves now is to put light crude on the market to reduce gasoline prices. He also wants to replace the reserves with heavy oil that is lower priced but requires refining. I expect the Americans are going to be looking to Alberta’s oil sands as a long term source of that heavier oil, and why wouldn’t they?
If Obama becomes President with a Democratic Congress and all this happens, the States will soon start seeing the oil sands as their best source for reliable continental energy supply. Then Alberta will need to respond. Alberta's response will be to take advantage of Harper’s new decentralized Canada approach of more provincial powers on international matters.
Alberta will have to establish its own provincial foreign policy to deal directly with the United States. It will start being about energy and environmental matters around processing and exporting of oil sands - a provincially owned natural resource with serious international and geo-political implications. Who knows where it will lead but, one thing for sure, it will be interesting times.
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