The Alberta Oil Sands Story Must be Told Honestly & Openly

The Edmonton Journal Political Columnist, Graham Thomson, is promising to shut up about the oil sands.
Say it ain't so Graham. We need more, not less, reliable trustworthy, knowledgeable and honest commentary to generate a province wide conversation amongst Albertans on the future of OUR oil sands.

WHAT DO ALBERTANS EXPECT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THEIR OIL SANDS?
The issues on the minds of Albertans over the development of their oil sands are mostly about reclamation, habitat protection and preservation, ecological monitoring, GHG emissions and water concerns.  These are the major driving values that Albertans want to see guide public policy around oil sands development.

The typical Albertan is not focused on how much investment is coming in from where or worried about how many jobs are being created in the development of this vast resource.  Given the size and strategic nature of the oil sands, those aspects are assumed to be givens.  Of course, there are risks around commodity prices and environmental stewardship pressures.  The prices must hold and new technology has to be developed to clean up the oil sands.  However, geopolitical events impacting supply, the growth of demand in the developing world and the eventual pricing of carbon emissions makes continued high energy prices and new technology developments seem inevitable; even in a recession.

ALBERTANS ARE GOING TO START ACTING LIKE OWNERS:
Albertans own this vital energy resource.  Industry is our tenant and the government is our property manager.  We need this resource to be treated as a long term asset that generates sustainable real wealth in a responsible way that benefits all Albertans not just the energy sector.  Ensuring responsible oil sands development is the duty of all Albertans.  We have to press our tenants on investing in more value added oil sands opportunity within Alberta.  We have to press our property mangers on creating better regulations, a better royalty revenue scheme and assurance of reclamation that supports biodiversity on those lands.  After all 89% of Albertans believe the oil sands are important to our future prosperity and well-being.  What more of a motivation does a government or political party need to realize they better get better at actually managing this vital asset and not spend so much time and money on phony PR battles.

We Albertans have to ensure that responsible oil sands development happens environmentally, socially, politically and yes economically too.  We must ensure we are being fair to future generations of Albertans on all counts.  Our oil sands value research shows that our property manger governments - both federal and provincial - are not living up to our expectations so far.  What to do about that poor performance is a political decision that are in the hands of every voting Albertan.  Voters must take the time to consider carefully in the consequences of the coming elections. They have to consciously decide who is worthy of their consent to govern and on what goals and values as they decide how to cast their ballot.

ALBERTANS ARE NOT IMPRESSED IN HOW OIL SANDS ARE BEING DEVELOPED:
Right now only 31% of believe our oil sands are being managed responsibly.  Only 17% of us were satisfied with how our Alberta-based Members of Parliament were representing our interests in the federal government...and all but one of the Alberta MPs is in the governing Harper ruled Conservative party.  The Stelmach government is held in even lower esteem as only 12% of Albertans were satisfied with their provincial government performance.

When asked which provincial party and leader should be trusted the most to responsibly manage Alberta's growth the preferences were very telling.   Stelmach and his PCs were preferred by 23%, Smith and the Wildrose Alliance came in at 19% support, followed by Swann and the Liberals at 9% and the Mason led NDP at only 4% confidence. Here is the kicker, None of the Above was the choice of 45% of Albertans.  That is a sign of political discontent and a rejection of the status quo.  Change is in the political air in Alberta.

So we are now seeing a plethora of new science-based ecological reviews from the Fed and the Province and separate promises from each order of government that they will do better.  Well they better get better and bloody quickly too.  Albertans are watching. They are not amused by what they have seen and sceptical that the current  political power structure is capable or even interested in hearing the public's voice or listening to the opinions of the citizen  owners of the oil sands.

EMPOWERED ENGAGED VOTERS CAN BE EXPECTED TO SHOW UP NEXT ELECTIONS:
Federal and Provincial elections are coming in Alberta. They will be real contests.  For the first time in a long time the outcomes are not guaranteed for conservatives.  The political culture of this dynamic province is about to change and the presumptions of any conservative based party winning by default are being rebutted by the evidence on our research at Cambridge Strategies.

So 2011 promises more uncertainty, turmoil and anger as Albertans return to engaged citizenship and look for a political approach and capable leadership that reflects our values.  The facts as of today shows that none of the current parties or leaders are measuring up to our new Alberta aspirations. There is a lot of soft support for all the standard brand parties in Alberta that is looking for a viable alternative...beyond the hardcore conservative values of the Wildrose Alliance. If a sizable portion of the 60% of disillusioned and disengaged Albertan returns to active informed citizenship and show up to vote in the coming Federal and Provincial elections, all bets that presume a perpetual conservative political culture in Alberta are off.

Welcome to 2011.

The Eyes of the World Are On Alberta's Oil Sands

Here is a link to yet another excellent Sunday Reader feature in the Edmonton Journal by Sheila Pratt on what it might take to get a reconciliation between industry the environmentalists and our governments on what is appropriate oil sands development approaches.  I was interviewed by Sheila for this piece and pleased to participate.

What we need now is an adult conversation in Alberta and by Albertans on how we want to see our oil sands resources developed.  The basis for that conversation should be framed from the findings of our resent research at Cambridge Strategies Inc. on the values Albertan's want to see guide and drive oil sands development was done in collaboration with OSRIN (Oil Sands Research and Information Network)

The citizens of Alberta need to create the place and space for that conversation to take place.  That can be in community meetings, church basements, coffee shops, service clubs, business groups, union halls, educational institutions, political gatherings and kitchen tables, just to name a few.  That conversation can begin where ever  one Albertan takes the time to asks another about what they want to see done to assure us that our natural resource is being responsibly developed so we can be proud of all the outcomes.

I am quoted in the Edmonton Journal story saying Albertans are starting to lose pride in the province.  I believe this to be true partly because our research shows only 31% of Albertans believe the oil sands resource in being managed well.  The Influentials in the province are at the forefront of this emerging sense of a loss of pride in being Albertan.  When asked if they tell others great things about living in Alberta only 51% of Influentials agreed or strongly agreed and only 45% of them would strongly recommend living in Alberta to a friend.

UPDATE:  REX MURPHY ASKS WHY AREN'T WE PROUD OF THE OIL SANDS?  This industry also needs a human face and not just the nice folks who work in the industry that populate the full page colour newspaper ads the industry is wasting money on - as if that would persuade us of authenticity, trustworthiness and integrity

The reason the opinions of Influentials are so important is because they are trend setters and opinion leaders.  These are the people the rest of the population relies on to help form our own thoughts on issues, ideas and many of the decisions we make in our lives.  Some have suggested what Influentials think today is what the general population will be thinking in 12 to 18 months from now.

That is why government and industry better start a more meaningful, serious and adult conversation with Albertans about what we want to see happening with the development of our resource.  After all it is Albertans who own the oil sands.  Industry is a mere tenant that depends on public confidence to gain and sustain a social license to operate their businesses be it forests, oil and gas or oil sands.

As for government their equivalent of a social license it to be seen worthy of the citizen's consent to govern.  Right now all of the political parties and their leaders in are seen to be less than adequate to the task of effectively managing the growth of Alberta.  When Albertans were asked who did they think was best able to responsibly manage Alberta's growth the results were astonishing.  Premier Ed Stelmach was the choice of 23%, Danielle Smith garnered 19%, David Swann had 9% and Brian Mason only 4%.  None of the Above was the assessment of 45% of the 1032 Albertans who were in the random survey done last May.

Change is in the air and alternatives are needed based on this survey result. If you want a progressive political culture in the Next Alberta register now for RebootAlberta 3.0 at www.rebootalberta.org

What Do Albertans Expect as Owners of the Oil Sands?

There is a PR and spin battle going on for the hearts and minds of the public over oil sands.  The battle is between the Government of Alberta the oil sands industry and some segments of the ENGOs (Environmental Non-government Organizations.)

The prime targets are Albertans, Canadians, businesses outside of Alberta who benefit from oil sand development and key American politicians who are fixated on a “dirty oil” message around the oil sands. The tactics being used to various degrees by all contestants are paid advertising and PR spin. 

We see the ENGO tactic of Corporate Ethics International paying for bill board advertising in a four select US cities calling for a “Rethink” of traveling to Alberta due to our so-called “dirty oil.”  There were some significant factual errors about the size of oil sands mining operation in the Corporate Ethics messages. It became a game of “he said - she said” generating more heat than light about the reality of the oil sands.

But there are other media motivated manoeuvres being employed by ENGOs.   Just yesterday Greenpeace performed another one of its publicity stunt and will get a bunch of media coverage as a result.  They hung a banner from the iconic Calgary Tower and message was “Separate Oil and State.”  Two protester wearing Premier Stelmach and Prime Minister Harper facemasks were chained to oil barrels with “Dirty Oil” written on them.  Eight of these Greenpeace protesters were arrested and that will give the story some legs in the media.

We see the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers running magazine and television ads using real people involved in oil sands technology, research and reclamation in an attempt to get an authentic human connection to the industry efforts to justify their social license to operate.

The Stelmach government is launching another quarter million dollar newspaper advertising push to “tell the world about the oil sands.”  Early indications are these ads are aimed at Albertans and Canadians and if that is the case that is hardly “telling the world.”  The recent rejection of a Letter to the Editor by Premier Stelmach to a Washington DC newspaper resulted in the purchase of a half page ad in that paper to run the letter as a way to get the message out to key US politicians.  Last time the Alberta government launched a paid advertising campaign on the oil sands it earmarked $25 million dollars glossy advertisements.  There was also some misleading in the content and context discovered in the campaign and it was quietly abandoned.

That is all by way of background for what I really want to talk.  If you want to connect with the hearts and minds of the public you should try to find out want is on their minds and in their hearts first.  Then you should talk to the public about oil sands matters that concern them.  There is a need for a conversation between government and industry about the responsible and sustainable development of the oil sands.  After all it is Albertan’s who own the oil sands.  

But are paid advertising campaigns anything close to a “conversation” with the public.  The paid advertising approach is often seen as self-serving one-way messages to the public.   There is a place for paid advertising in communications.  But in complex matters like oil sands development advertising alone is no substitute for substantial, authentic, accurate, clear and resonant conversations with the public.

So what is it about oil sands development that the Alberta public is concerned about?  What information do they want?  What do they believe ought to be the values used by decision makers as their oil sands are being developed?  How confident are they in the decision makers in government and industry about oil sands development?  At Cambridge Strategies we have designed and deployed a random sample survey with 1032 Albertans to get at what is on their minds and in their hearts about oil sands development. 

I will be doing more blog posts on this in the future but for now I want to delve a bit deeper into a survey finding that was reported in the Edmonton Journal today under the headline “Many Albertans Onside with Gov’t Handling of the Oilsands.”  It is very difficult to take a statistic and isolate it from the larger context and write a meaningful headline that also grabs attention.  So I will temper my criticism because while the headline is accurate I am not sure it really captures all the implications and essence of the findings.  That requires a bit more reflection and interpretation. 

There were some survey questions that were attitudinal and not part of the value choice questions in the conjoint study.  So they are more like opinion polling questions and relate to a moment in time only.  The value choice conjoint questions on what Albertans believe should guide and drive policy decisions on oil sands development are a more reliable source of what people want and expect over time for oil sands development.

Here is a more comprehensive look at how “onside” Albertans are with the government handling of the oil sands.  

The question asked was:  “The Alberta government is responsibly managing the oilsands.”  The response was:

•                 Completely Agree                                           6%         
•                 Agree                                                            25%
•                 Slightly Agree                                                 34%
•                 Slightly Disagree                                             17%
•                 Disagree                                                         13%
•                 Completely Disagree                                         5%

While there are more Albertans who agree (31%) than disagree (18%) with how their government is managing the oil sands there is a more interesting and significant factor in this answer.  Look at the mushy middle opinion.  Over half of Albertans slightly agree or slightly disagree with this statement.  These people are fluid and more undecided in their opinions.  If they move in one direction or another, that will have enormous impact on our attitudes as owners of the oilsands.  It will have consequences for politics, elections and social licenses for industry to operate in the oil sands – which is a public property.

What is it that would make Albertans in the middle group move one direction or another?  If the hearts and minds of 51% of Albertans are up for grabs what would influence them to shift one way or another about how they feel their government is doing in terms of responsible management of the oil sands.  This is not a minor issue because the survey also found that 89% of Albertans believe the oil sands are either Extremely Important (47%) or Very Important (42%) to Alberta’s prosperity.

Another serious influence on this question is how much confidence Albertans currently have in the political leaders and parties who must make public policy about what constitutes responsible and sustainable oil sands development.  That result is also in the Edmonton Journal story but it needs to be more directly related to the first question.  Again this must be looked at in terms or a possible trend. 

The question was: “Who do you trust the most to responsibly manage Alberta’s growth.”  Premier Ed Stelmach of the Progressive Conservative Party was at 23%, Danielle Smith of the Wildrose Alliance was 19%.  David Swann of the Liberals was 9% and Brian Mason of the NDP came in at 4%.  The largest segment was None of the Above at 45%.   This indicates some potential for change in Alberta politics but there is not viable political alternative in the minds of most Albertans these days.

There is great deal more opinion related results in the survey and they are published at the Edmonton Journal Notebook Blog too.  It is important to review them all and consider the implications as whole and not just individual questions.

                 

When and What Will the Next Alberta Election Be About?

I get a strange feeling the Stelmach government is easing into the election prep stage known as The Red Zone. That is where not much happens in governance because they don’t want to make political mistakes. With the rise of the “pungent and pink” Wildrose the current government, if not in the Red Zone, it is definitely concerned about the Wildrose “pink zone” of election readiness.


I don’t think we will have a snap election in Alberta but I would not count on Stelmach waiting until March 2012 as stated earlier. Alberta is mindful of many external forces influencing its election timing. For example there is potential for a federal election late this fall or next spring. It may happen over the next budget or, depending if Harper thinks he can get a majority, he will engineer his own defeat. The midterm US elections will be watched carefully by the Stelmach government for policy trends that impact energy policy and oil sands development.

Then there are domestic concerns about election timing. The Stelmach government had an approval rating of 12% in a recent survey of Albertans. The economy is apparently recovering but is it due to the billions of provincial and federal government stimulus money or is it authentic economic growth at play? Are we into a slow and steady economic turn around or a double dip recession? Too early to tell yet and economist are pointing in every direction, as usual.

Then we have the volatility of politics to consider too. There is change in the air in Alberta these days. And what form that will take is still unclear. Albertan’s self –image from environmental pressures and negative PR is eating away at our pride of place, our self-confidence and our self-esteem. Albertans are clear that oil sands are critically important to our future prosperity. But they are now questioning themselves and their government about how well this resource is being developed and managed.

The lack of faith in the leadership in any of the current political parties is another measure of volatility. We recently asked a random sample of over 1000 Albertans which political leader they trusted most to manage the growth in the Alberta economy. The results brought a sharp focus on the general disaffection Albertans have with the current crop of political leaders. Only 4% picked the NDP’s Brian Mason. Some 9% trusted Liberal leader David Swann. As for The Wildrose and Danielle Smith only 19% would put their management trust in her. Premier Ed Stelmach of the PCs garnered a scant 23% who said they trusted him the most to manage Alberta’s growth. Here is the kicker – 45% of us said we mostly trusted none of them to manage the growth of the Alberta economy. That survey outcome speaks to potential for serious political change but begs the question – change to what alternative?

Now add in the right-wing conservative political culture war that is raging in Alberta between Progressive Conservatives and the Wildrose Alliance Party. With Ted Morton’s move to Minister of Finance and Enterprise he is doing the next budget for the spring of 2011. We can expect his ideological fingerprints will to be all over the economic and fiscal policy direction of Alberta by next year. Kevin Libin has a very insightful and telling column in a recent edition of the National Post on the Morton factor in Alberta politics and policy directions. I recommend you read it.

If Kevin is right in his observations about Minister Morton, and my comments he quotes about Minister Morton from 2006 are still valid (and Morton himself says they are) then we have another fly-in-the-ointment political dynamic that will influence the election timing.

What if the PCs become less progressive and more Morton-like conservative between now and the next election? What if the defacto election battle on the right is between the Sorcerer Morton and Smith, his former Apprentice from the Calgary School? Where does that leave Stelmach? Where do progressives go given the current anemic political alternatives they are being offered? What does the next Alberta look like if only the radical right and reactionary left show up to vote?

We need a viable progressive political alternative in Alberta. The current situation is untenable for any thoughtful Albertan who sees a positive balanced role for responsible, accountable, open and honest government. Reboot Alberta is not a political party but it is a way to influence and shape any new or existing political party. We need to show the powers that be and any that want to be that they must move towards a more inclusive and effective approach to a more contemporary political culture that reflects the next Alberta instead of trying to perfect the past.

Efforts are afoot for staging Reboot 3.0 in late October to look at a more activist approach to bring the progressive agenda and voice back to Alberta politics. Stay tuned for more information here and to join the Reboot Alberta citizen's movement go to http://www.rebootalberta.org/

Get Used to Incredible Uncertainty in Alberta Politics

Dave Clemenhaga once again provides a well researched and coherent commentary on things political in our province.  His insight into the implications of the rise of the Wildrose Alliance Party coincide with my own,  No wonder I like his perspective.

Since this post was written new developments sparked by the Liberal leader David Swann have triggered some serious conversations in progressive political circles about what to do.  Reboot Alberta has been instrumental in starting policy conversations amongst progressive thinking Albertan.  But the time has come to get more focused on the politics side of the progressive agenda.

I have been in a number of conversations with progressive thinkers in the province and the MSM in the past few days.  There is a plan emerging in my mind about how to use the conversation space David Swann has opened up with his invitation.  Expect a blog post on the ideas and events peculating around shortly.

Can Harper & Stelmach Get Along & is Alberta Ready for a Carbon Tax?

Media reports say there is a battle brewing between the Harper and Stelmach governments and it is where the environment and the economy meet. Former Premier Peter Lougheed predicted this over two years ago in a speech to the Canadian Bar Association.


Cambridge Strategies is in the final stages of data collection in a random sample conjoint survey on values Albertans want to see guide and drive politicians and policy makers when they are deciding matters that impact the lives of citizens. We have also asked some very pointed opinion questions on the political culture of Alberta oo.

Given some recent mainstream media stories, I thought it helpful to give a preview of some of the preliminary findings. We are almost finished gathering the data so some of these result might change but likely only slightly.

In the context of the “Battle Brewing Between Alberta and Ottawa over Oil Sands Exports” only 22% of Albertans Strongly Agreed or Agreed that “Prime Minister Stephen Harper pays sufficient attention to Alberta issues and concerns.” Only 25% Strongly Agreed or Agreed “Prime Minister Harper should stop Chinese investment in Alberta’s Oilsands while 56% of Albertans disagree this proposition to some degree of other.

As for perceptions of Albertans on how well the Harper and Stelmach government are getting along on major issues of environment, investment and natural resources over 82% do not think the two governments are getting along that well.  Indications are it will only get worse as the Harper government continue to ignore Alberta's concerns and Stelmach government continues to lag in public confidence.  This all typical fed-prov political infighting will happen at a time when the world is targeting Canada and Alberta for our politically inert attitudes and embarrassingly inept approaches towards environmental policy.

Then we have the other interesting story that Suncor CEO Rick George is reported to be in favour of a carbon tax as part of a national energy strategy to reduce emissions and promote responsible energy development. George is calling for a carbon tax that applies to industry and consumers and to all emitters from “oilsands plants to the tailpipe of your car.” George sees a need for a national energy strategy to harmonize the patchwork of provincial policies and align with major trading partners like the United States.

The Stelmach government has apparently “shot down the idea” according to mainstream media reports. Apparently Deputy Premier Doug Horner “…flatly dismissed the idea of a tax on consumers and bristled at the suggestion of a national energy policy beyond simple co-operation between provinces and the federal government on energy issues.

Our research study preliminary findings show that Albertans, when asked if “Alberta should have a carbon tax and use the money to clean the environment” 23.71% strongly disagreed, 15.81% disagreed and 21.36% slightly disagreed. On the other hand those who supported a carbon tax showed 4.27% strongly agreed, 13.46% agreed and 21.36 slightly agreed. That is a surprising 60/40 split. Seen another way the swing vote of the slightly agreed or disagreed are over 42% so there is volatility around acceptance of a carbon tax by Albertan depending on if the mush middle moves one way or the other.

As for the strength of support the politicians representing Alberta we have figures from another random study of 1032 Albertans that is complete. The bottom line is there is not much confidence in any of the existing federal or provincial alternatives. When asked “who do you trust the most to responsibly manage Alberta’s growth” the results were telling. Brian Mason (NDP) 4%, David Swann (Liberal) 9%, Danielle Smith (Wildrose Alliance) 19%, Ed Stelmach (PC Party) 23%. NONE OF THE ABOVE 45%.  Albertans are clearly not happy with the directions and choices the current political parties are offering. Kind of shows why only 40% of us even bother to vote.

The Federal politicians representing Alberta have nothing to brag about either. When Albertans were asked how satisfied they were the way the Alberta-based MPs were representing Albertans interests in Ottawa only 1% were completely satisfied, 16% were satisfied and 27% were slightly satisfied. On the other hand 11% were totally dissatisfied, 22% were dissatisfied and 23% were slightly dissatisfied. Again 50% are in the mushy middle of being slightly satisfied or dissatisfied. As for if the Alberta MPS are doing enough to protect Albertan oil and gs resources in Ottawa 40% thing they are and 60% don’t thing they are.  Not a strong vote confidence as a federal election looms.

Bottom line is the Feds and the provincial governments appear to be increasingly misaligned and misreading the mood of the Alberta public on many key issues. I will show more about this misalignment in subsequent blog posts once the final survey results are in and the analysis has been completed.

All this research is showing us that there is a need for a political revolution to change the political culture of this province.  As I have said this before on this blog,  I see a Renaissance, a Reformation and a ReEnlightenment all now happening at the same time.  I wonder if it is enough to create the kind of political unrest that festers and fosters the kind of Revolution we have sen before in Alberta's political culture.  It has before when Social Credit and the Progressive Conservatives came into power years ago. 

It is feeling more and more like Albertans are ready for some serious and radical changes to our political culture - but what is the alternative?  The open question for all Albertans now is does the WAP reflect enough of the core values of contemporary Albertans so they gain the political power to run the province as they wish in this emerging wave of citizen re-engagement?  I will have more to say shortly in answering that question.  First we must finish the current research and do the thorough analysis of the conjoint study results.   We will then have some insight about some of the core the value drivers that Albertans what to see  used by politicians.  then we will know more about what Albertans expect in order to grant their consent to be governed.  Stay tuned.

Reflections on a Black Swann in Alberta Politics

I am reassured that a man like David Swann can win a political party leadership in a place like Alberta. Getting 54% of the less than 5000 votes is not sign that Swann is seen as the “game changer” that many politically frustrated Albertans are looking for. I am not sure a game changer is what we need anymore. The game has already changed. We now need a pioneering leader who can help us adapt to a very different and difficult human journey.

I don’t know if David is a game changer but he may be a mapmaker who charts a new course for politics in Alberta. We are sailing into unknown territory economically, ecologically and socially all over the globe. Alberta may be more blessed and less stressed than many other places but we are not immune from the new realities of recession and restructuring. The game has changed and so must our politics.

The early mapmakers described the as yet unknown parts of the world as “There be Dragons.” It is an apt metaphor for today as we venture into this new sense of the unknown. I call it “Vueja Day.” That funny feeling nobody has ever been here before.

The new world order is going to challenge our conventional narratives and business-as-usual model of politics. We have emerging and imminent challenges that we have created by enabling greed and the centralized political power that has been abdicating its oversight roles and responsibilities in the economy, the environment and even in our social institutions.

We are at a stage where we can’t solve the complex problems coming at us by applying the old cultural norms and institutional levers. That is because they are not simple not responsive enough, applicable enough nor adaptive enough. Our conventional tools of government, our traditional definition of success and our current decision making models are actually adding to the problems, not resolving them. We see more political bungling and lost opportunities as a result. We have our “leaders” posturing to avoid accountability, transparency and responsibility. We see more squandering of our scarce resources with disingenuous politicians who are good at feigning that they care as they fail to provide adaptive leadership in the face of the new dynamics.

Alberta seems to many like a political mono-cultural and a one-party state. That may have been Alberta’s past but I don’t think that is Alberta’s future. The Alberta narrative is about to change significantly. The myth of the rugged self-reliant individual, risk-taking wealth generating entrepreneur who exploits the abundant natural resources for big bucks will not go away. But it will not be the only narrative that defines Alberta going forward. If it is the only operational narrative, then Alberta will quickly fail because we will fail to adapt to the new realities of the post hydrocarbon world that is confronting us.

If there is no post hydrocarbon world coming at us, then Alberta will still fail. We will just fail along with the rest of our species as the planet heats up and we slavishly seek to keep to our illusions and delusions that tomorrow will be a variation of yesterday…regardless of evidence to the contrary. The world will go on, perhaps without us, but the planet will not care one way or the other, if we fail to adapt and survive.

So I’m hoping David Swann is the Black Swan and the improbable exception that enables us to make new models of politics, governing and government. Our democracy is ailing and we lack political leaders who have sufficient wisdom and judgment to be life affirming. Instead we see them all to selfishly focused on preserving personal and political power. David Swann strikes me as being unselfish and life affirming. After all aren’t medical doctors all about being life affirming and in service the public good?

The educated person quickly comes to realize the more we learn the more ignorant we actually are. The wisdom of that truth has to be brought to bear on our politics and become foundational to the new operating narrative for the next Alberta. I’m thinking David Swan may be the new mapmaker that is willing to explore new ways of seeing and doing politics. He may be able to help us realize our current ignorance and actually encourage and enable us to write a new citizen-based narrative for the next Alberta.

Will he be able to lead us in ways so we start to really reengage in responsible, caring, resourceful citizenship? Will Albertans be wise and skillful enough to take on the adaptive change challenges that the new world realities demand of us?

Will David Swann be allowed to become the kind of unconventional pioneering political leader that can help us find and refine the next Alberta? Or will he just become another prophet? A prophet’s lot in life is to be stoned by the masses. Time will tell but one thing is obvious to me, we need new maps to be drawn by new mapmakers as we move forward as strangers in a strange land that is the uncertain, chaotic and complex future of the planet.

Alberta Liberal Party Leadership PSA

So today is the last day for Albertans to participate in the forthcoming Alberta Liberal leadership contest. Three candidates are in the running and lots of challenges or the "winner." You can check them out at: Mo Elsalhy: www.elsalhy.com, David Swann: www.electdavidswann.ca, Dave Taylor: www.tayloralberta.ca

A strong democracy and good government demands a strong opposition. Pick up memberships on-line today before 4 pm to participate.


I have sold lots of Alberta Progressive Conservative memberships to Liberals in the last two leadership contests. Many people resist "joining" a political party because they somehow feel it restricts them from speaking there minds. That has not been my experience. In fact it it pointless to join a political party if you don't speak your mind. that is what they are for.


I encourage Albertans to pick up an Alberta Liberal membership for the sole purpose of having some say and influence on who will be the Leader of the Opposition in YOUR government. It is money well spent.

Swann Runs for the Alberta Liberal Leadership

David Swann is in the race for the leadership of the Alberta Liberal leadership race. It is as I suspected and I am not surprised he did not pursue a new party approach. A new party demands you gather a swack of signatures from a bunch of diverse, disgruntled and disengaged Albertans and then try and mould them into a unified political force, all within four years. That would a quixotic adventure at best.

He is by far the best candidate in the Liberal Leadership running so far based on insight, intelligence and ability to listen and learn. He is also a reluctant politician. He got into the political arena to respond to the injustice and unfairness of being fired for speaking out as a medical health officer. That all appeared to be about pure politics. I kind of like reluctant politicians. Ambitious politicos like Stephen Harper make me nervous. I like the pure laine servant leader types who are in it for the opportunity to be of service to the public and not about wielding power. My reading of Swann is he fits the servant leader mould well.

I got to know a bit about David Swann this past week end because we were both at the Keepers of the Water Conference in Fort Chipewyan. We coincidentally flew up together on Friday and he was scheduled to fly out later that day. The conference was so significant that he stayed over and we had some time to sit and chat about issues facing the province and the state of democracy in Alberta.

We share a concern over the decline of citizen participation in the political and public life of the province. He said many Albertans were “allergic to politics.” When he said that, I remember thinking two things, first, he is right. My second reaction was wow a medical doctor who can use a metaphor in a meaningful way. There may be hope for this guy in political leadership. He is clearly a social progressive and ecologically conservationist Albertan and wants a responsible and sustainable economic regime.

Regardless of policy and issues, Job 1 for the next Alberta Liberal leader will be to pay off the party debts of about $700,000.00. They simply can’t be a viable alternative if they are fiscally vulnerable and can’t afford to campaign effectively. Swann showed he can raise money and did pretty well comparatively speaking in the fund raising for his constituency run last election.

If he wins, he has to show he can push a bigger rock up a steeper and longer hill and get some serious dollars donated to kill the deficit in the Liberal coffers. Given the political culture of Alberta, Swann is not likely to find 70 donors with $10K each. In fact what he needs to do is find 7000 Albertans with $100 each to come to the aid of the Alberta Liberal party. That would be more effective politically too. The good news is there are at least a couple of years to get it done given that the next Alberta election is about four years hence.

Stelmach was profound in his victory speech when he won the PC leadership saying “Nice guys can finish first.” Same could be - and should be - true for David Swann in this campaign. Glad to see quality people, regardless of party affiliations, still prepared to put their private lives on the line, their careers on hold, and stand for public office in hopes of serving the greater good…

Alberta Liberal Leadership Hopefuls Line Up On the Left.

The line up of the touted and taunted for the leadership of the Alberta Liberal party so far is pretty much aligned (or maligned) on the left. The touted are Edmonton candidates Laurie Blakeman, Hugh MacDonald balanced off by Calgary’s David Swann and Dave Taylor.

Those being taunted, but not biting, are former Deputy Prime Minister of Anne McLennan and current Calgary Mayor Bronconnier. Given the past and present accomplishments of Anne and Dave one would be hard pressed to come up with a convincing reason for them to jump into this political pot-boiler.

There are others toying with the idea – there always are. They don't usually have a hope to win but campaigns matter and they often add spice to the event. They get to say some things in campaigns that the self-possessed front runners may think but don’t dare say. Amongst those wild cards I would keep an eye out for former Edmonton McClung MLA Mo Elsalhy.

Ideally we would see a youthful refreshing idealistic candidate emerge to make some noise. Not Edmonton City Councillor Don Iveson but someone like him who can run a modern successful Web 2.0 political campaign to prove you don't have to spend a million dollars to be successful.

They definitely need a rural candidate or two stepping forward as well. I don’t have any names yet but if someone out there in rural Alberta is kicking the tires, let me know. So who have we got in the hopper (or the blender) so far?

Laurie Blakeman has experience and she has proven political skills. But she is much closer to being a Sheila Copps than a Bette Hewes. That is a big bonus if you like butting heads, like a Sheila Copps, rather than building a province, like a Bette Hewes. Not sure if she could handle the economic and geo-political issues emerging in Alberta. She seems to totally urban in outlook and may be perceived as too Edmonton-centric. If the Libs only want to select a Leader of the Opposition - Blakeman is the best choice.

Hugh MacDonald is the Rodney Dangerfield of the group. He is an accomplished journeyman politician and a strong constituency guy who is chronically nice. Unfortunately he has no royal jelly and therefore will not become the provincial party leader. He would be the farthest left leaning candidate and could easily philosophically pinch hit for Brian Mason of the NDP. At the end of the day Hugh is a salt-of-the-earth guy and will be called upon to patch up the party if the race gets brutal. You don’t have to be a candidate to play that role but it usually helps.

David Swann is the most interesting potential candidate so far. Like Taft he is a reluctant politician who got into politics because he was personally offended by the power structure in the province in the Klein era. Swann was fired as a medical health officer in a now defunct southern Alberta health authority. I believe he was fired for pure political reasons, like supporting the Kyoto Accord I believe. A Calgary MLA in his second term Swann is openly questioning how to get past what some see as the perpetual one-party state called Alberta. His thoughts range from revitalizing the Liberal party to working on a brand new progressive political movement. It will be interesting to see if he runs, which way he goes and what he does and says as a candidate.

Dave Taylor is the quintessential Calgary guy who will be in this race for sure. He is like a Ralph Klein but without a Rod Love to “execute” (every pun intended). Alberta has already done a Ralph Klein and I am not sure we are ready for another one any time soon. Taylor is very media savvy, highly quotable and a “quip thinker.” But that seems to be the extent of his political talent. Populist are fun for the media but they are dangerous in times of uncertainty and serious social change.

Change and uncertainty in the face of abundance is the new Alberta reality. Out of control growth pressures that are creating social problems everywhere along with an emerging urgency over ecological concerns means we need statesmanship in our governing institutions more than ever.

For my money you can keep your charismatic politicians as leaders. They create more problems than they resolve. I want a thoughtful solid citizen with a compassionate sensibility who can handle uncertainty and complexity. I want an intelligent and curious leader with a pragmatic long view of politics. I want a leader who see themselves as a servant-leader and not as some paternalistic authority figure with a hunger for for personal power. If the Alberta Liberals can find that kind leader they might have a chance.