The Election Trends Are Changing in the Home Stretch

Harris Decima and EKOS rolling polling results up to yesterday showed some interesting and shifting trends. The Cons have been humbled and Harper has been accurately framed by his own words and deeds as cold callous and uncaring about the anguish of ordinary Canadians.

That said the Conservatives slide has seemed to stabilize. If that sustains, Harper is likely to form government again unless Harper blows it even more in the next 5 days. Campaigns matter and anything can happen.

The demographic shifts and regional volatility is where the interesting changes are occurring. The sample sizes in the regions and provinces are very small and very unreliable in each poll. If you can believe the polls, which is not a given, the Cons look like they have regained their solid in B.C. and stealing soft NDP support.

In Quebec the Cons have dropped 10 points and flirting for 4th place with the NDP. Here the Cons failure is most dramatic. After promising Quebec per capita spending of about $94o, pandering language about fiscal imbalance and “Quebec nation” has been rejected. Quebec has seen Harper for who he is. His “dissing” of artists and demeaning culture and putting children jail for life has shown Harper does not share the same values as Quebecers. The released costs of the Afghan war twice as high as Harper said it would be will be another big blow to Harper’s support in Quebec.

Ontario and Atlantic Canada is a sprint to what will be a photo-finish because the support is all so
close.

If Harper was in majority territory strategic voting would be important. It will still be a factor in close and key ridings and I will post on that later. The polls note the Liberals will be the largest beneficiaries of strategic vote switchers – if that happens. The Greens are the most likely to switch Liberal for strategic purposes. About 60% of Undecided voters are still up for grabs as strategic voters but only a third of them are saying they would vote mostly to stop a Con majority.

Harris Decima shows the NDP national support is showing slippage but they are still healthy except in Quebec…no surprise! In Ontario they are growing but the Liberals are ahead of the Cons and that is the real story.

The big shift that may make al the difference is the female voter. They are leaving the NDP and moving to the Liberals. The Liberals have more female support than Harper for the first time since the election call. When it comes to urban female support the Liberals have really taking off moving up 10 points in a week taking it away from Harper and Layton.

I’m thinking there will be some serious strategic voting with soft Greens going Liberal and NDP soft female support doing the same thing on a constituency basis, not nationally. Quebec voters are the only ones who had a larger advanced poll than in 2004 and they are going to bury Harper on Tuesday. Ontario and Atlantic Canada may shift to a larger Liberal vote if they realize that Danny Williams and Bill Casey is right and they have been screwed around on the Atlantic Accord by Harper.

Right now Harper’s death-mo decline in popularity has stopped but who knows where it goes. Dion has gotten into the game and the advent of Martin joining his team can only serve him well in gaining the confidence of Canadians in these turbulent times.

May Disses Duffy After the Debates

Thanks to Daveberta the clip where Elizabeth May rips Mike Duffy a new one.

It is high time this happened. The misinformation, false framing and infotainment feeding frenzy that we see in "authoratiative media" these days has to be called.

We need journalism to return to its roots. With the free for all anonymous riddled blogosphere we need authoritative journalism more than ever. Please MSM get back to honouring the basic principles of ethical journalism as a hallmark of news and commentary. Democracy needs it and citiznes should demand it.

Good for Lizzie May. She took a axe and gave Mike Duffy 40 whacks. Good for her. I hope this is not the last time she calls out shoddy professional journalism.

I am voting Liberal and sending the Greens a cheque.

What's Missing From Harper's Late and Light Election Platform?

So the Harper Campaign Platform, such as it is, has finally been made public. It is very intentional that Harper released his “platform” late so Canadians only a week to review it. He did not want to even release a platform because it would make him accountable for promises. Harper doesn't like to be made to accountable to Canadians.

Those ordinary Canadians who had to vote in advanced polls did not have a chance to read the Conservative platform. Those advanced poll voters must have felt cheated by Harper's indifference and not even trying to inform them of his vision for the country before they had to vote.

Harper has released a very shallow and superficial policy document. It is mostly pictures in the sweater vest mode and very little policy substance. It suffers from a lack of insight and shows a serious insensitivity to the plight of Canadians trying to face of the current economic calamity.

Harper tries to reassure anxious Canadians by preaching about sound fundamentals that comes of as a hollow and misleading. Harper thinks there are no holes in the hull of Canada’s fiscal ship of state. Unfortunately Harper is oblivious to the consequences of the global fiscal tsunami that will swamp us anyway.

Harper persistent Do Nothing "solution" will not reassure Canadians he is up to the job of serving the citizens of the entire nation in the position of Prime Minister. Harper does not seem to have an answer to the crisis and comes of as waffling with a haughty and superior attitude.

He does not seem to care about the impact of the crisis on ordinary Canadians and is in denial that anything of significance is happening. Obama in the debate last night nailed it when he said the world is facing the most devastating economic crisis since the collapse of 1929 that resulted in the Great Depression. Harper is fiddling and tinkering with minutia and marginal efforts to respond.

The Harper campaign platform is deficient in so many other ways. We live in turbulent complex times where governments have to engage on a wide range of concerns. To show just how shallow and superficial the Harper Conservative election platform is, consider that these words WERE NOT IN THE PLATFORM DOCUMENT

CLIMATE CHANGE, GLOBAL WARMING; POVERTY; EQUALITY; CHARTER OF RIGHTS; CHILDCARE SPACES, STUDENT, UNIVERSITIES, KELOWNA ACCORD; WAIT TIMES; MEDICARE; DIPLOMACY; DARFUR; PENSION; ATLANTIC ACCORD; MULTICULTURALISM; GREEN; PROSPERITY –


and CONSERVATIVE TEAM.

Harper is still a one-man-band political team. He is still convinced that he is the only one he needs to consult with on any Conservative policy. He believes that he alone knows what is "best" for Canada. He has shown us he is not a statesman. He is a bully. He is not aligned with Canadian values and has shown nothing but contempt and indifference to our current concerns and our hopes and aspirations as citizens and as a county.

Harper's warm and fuzzy sweater is unravelling and it is showing us that the same old mean spirited , callous and uncaring Conservative candidate is underneath.

Stop Harper. Vote your Canadian values.

Harper's Campaign Platform is Not Just Disappointing - It is Disasterous.

The Harper speech on the Conservative last minute campaign platform made it look like there was only one plank in the thing. He did a litany of old news on old announcements and hoping that would appease voters. Voters are shoing thay are not prepared to vote for a “Do Nothing” politician especially as we face the most disastrous economic calamity since 1929.

Harper’ political lens is just that of an economist. His speech was like a keynote to the Conference Board of Canada, the Fraser Institute of the C.D Howe Institute. All about balanced budgets, lower taxes and controlling inflation. Important stuff but that is not all there to consider in this election.

I thought it was telling that Harper admitted he knows this economic disaster was coming as far back as August 2007 but he did not address it in this election – that HE CALLED – until the very last minute. Is that because he did not have a plan, did not want to share it or did not want to be bound by any campaign promises so he could do what every he liked with the absolute power of a majority government? Can you trust a man to govern who uses any of these tactics?

So let’s look at the platform itself. It has five sections and a costing. Cost of living, jobs for the future, a “strong, united, independent and free Canada, health and environmental well-being and safety and security. Why did he only talk about the stock portfolios and taking a “trip of a lifetime”? Hardly the stuff that is top of mind of ordinary Canadians like keeping their jobs, securing their savings and pensions!

In two weeks $400B has been wiped off the Canadian stock market and $2Trilllion of our largest customer, the Americans. Are they going to be unable to buy from us and where is Harper’s expertise as an economist on this reality?

A detailed look shows it is still a “Do Nothing” strategy. Harper tells us there are no holes in the hull of the Ship of State but he is ignoring the economic tsunami that everyone else sees and knows will swamp the boat unless we respond.

The rhetoric in the Cons Campaign Platform is the same old – same old and it is mostly pictures – pretty and cuddly but not much substance. Communities policy is all about crime – did not see anything new about infrastructure needs beyond what he has already announced, ironically using the Liberal gas tax transfer as the source of funds.

The consumer theme is tinkering on a two cent tax reduction on diesel when the problem is that there may not be enough diesel fuel to meet demand.

Here is a burning issue that goes to the heart of the economic crisis facing Canada. Harper is going to stop phone companies from charging for receiving unsolicited text messages and spam. How naïve is it to think that this is going to appease the folly of the stupid copyright legislation Harper has introduced.

Now that they have created the food inspection crisis, they are making a virtue out of necessity. More inspection and testing of food, toys and consumer products the obvious rampant crime of gas pump tampering.

Family policy focus is on disability sector needs by creating a Disability Savings Plan – like an RRSP scheme and allowing income splitting for stay home care givers. No indication of supporting disabled people themselves. Let’s hope this is as insincere as his Income Trust promise last time.

The marginal tinkering with penny-ante programs is laughable. $5000 tax credit for First-time home buyers means only $750 in real dollars – if you are in the highest tax bracket. Indexing the $100 per month TAXABLE child care benefit is also laughable. If Harper is going to control inflation – who cares? Spare us please!

Some vague language on making housing affordable for “Vulnerable Canadians” will only maintain funding at current levels and will give low income home owners renovation assistance. This is such silliness when low income people can’t stay in their homes with pending job loss…never mind renovate.

There is lots of make- work- but-not- in-anyway- that- is-progressive and the usual vague language on aboriginal challenges and fuzzy comments about working with provinces. Aboriginals are a federal jurisdiction. Harper is down loading the challenges that are his Constitutional responsibility, to the provinces.

The breathtaking policy on “Reforming or Abolishing the Senate” is a sop to the Reform/Alliance base as a time when substantial and reassuring leadership is so critical. We don't need to initiate a Constitutional Amendment policy when the economy is in crisis.

There is more but it is all superficial and shallow stuff that misses the mark in addressing the major angst and anguish of Canadians today. Indifference and callousness abound. Harper does not only not "Get It" He doesn't CARE!

I will do more posts later, today or tomorrow, on the Harper half-hearted so-called campaign platform. He is still committed to do nothing of substance or that shows no capacity for caring and understanding of the plight of regular Canadians.

Stop Harper before he Misleads again. Vote Liberal.

Don't Trust the Polls - Remember How Wrong They Were in 2006

Here is a disturbing poll result. It is a post English debate ayalysis. I am disappointed, not because Dion did not win and Harper did. There is some silver lining in that Harper did lose ground during the debate because 36% of viewers had a worse opinion of him and only 29% improved their opinion of him.

May and Layton were the big winners of the English debates...hands down. Duceppe impressed and Dion held his own and got to show us who he is without the "advantage of Puffins and Harper's personal attack ads on him.

The disappointment is that the poll is apparently based on opinions formed after only watching the first hour of the debate. If this is true the results are suspect and the methodology is to.

That would be like watching the first half of the movie and then doing a review of the whole movie without seeing it all. Not good. Say it ain’t so Ipsos Reid.