Harper Get Close but Can't Close the Deal with Canadians.

Congratulations to the Harper Party. The results are not what Harper wanted but he can claim a success if not a win. Harper’s goal in this early and unnecessary election was to get a majority and destroy Dion and bankrupt the Liberal Party. So, I wonder, do Canadians feel we did not waste $300,000,000.00 dollars that could have been spent for better purposes?

The Harper majority was close and yet elusive. Harper lost the majority himself due to his lack of deft about understanding the importance of arts and culture to Quebec. It is so weirdly Canadian that the country was saved from a Harper majority, and the consequences of his proven demagoguery, by a separatist political movement. Harper has been to the election well three times and can't finish the job even with the most opportune of times with the Liberals being so unready and unsteady to run effectively.

Dion was the least experienced leader in his first election and he and the Liberal party was not really ready to run when the Writ came down. He was defeated by his own lack of political experience, his platform and his party, especially in Ontario and B.C. The last figures I saw as about a 9% reduction of Liberal support in Ontario. One wonders if the old guard stayed home and did not engage in Dion’s cause.

Then there was the impact of the economic meltdown factor. The Nanos tracking over the Thanksgiving weekend showed a shift in Ontario on Sunday to the Harper party. Speculation is this shift if likely from anxiety over the economy and the normative default but unproven consciousness that Conservatives are better economic managers.

Layton did well but not up to expectations. His popular vote stays the same and he gained 8 seats. Go figure. He will soon quit bragging about winning a seat in Quebec because Mulcair will be groomed to replace Layton sooner than later. Linda Duncan’s breakthrough in Alberta is a personal victory for her due to a strong campaign and strategic voting - and not anything to do with the NDP.

So we are back to square one with no clarity of a political outcome and no public policy purpose beyond platitudes. We are fragmented regionally and at sea economically as the global financial turmoil washes over us and puts us into recession. We have no comprehensive or comprehensible environmental policy and as for progressive policies on social issues, forget about it.

May's is a story of hope over experience. The strategic impulse of Greens voting for the Liberals did not take off. The popular vote for the Greens doubled and most of that came out of the hide of Stephane Dion.

So now we have a strong right and a strong but crowded left but no progressive middle. Dion identified the progressives in the final days but not with enough time to catch on and coalesce as a consciousness never mind a movement. The social progressive/ fiscal conservative centre is wide open in the Canadian political consciousness.

The Harper Party has to learn how to govern effectively in a world that is extremely complex and in critical shape. Cute tactics like a GST tax cut will not be enough to instill confidence in the Harper Party. Harper will have to change his style and show us some substance. Layton will be caught in the Harper Party everything is Confidence motion trap in this Parliament. Dion has nothing personally to lose now. I expect to see him and his caucus voting against Harper’s trickery and skullduggery more often, especially if he trumps up phony confidence motions on ideologically driven bad legislation.

The future for the Liberals is clear. The Liberals have to return to their roots, put away their egos and get fiercely focused on finances and rebuilding a modern party. That will start with new leadership in the face of new political realities.

We need leadership that can articulate authentically on the real needs and hopes of Canadians.
We need politicians who believe in government and can present a proper role and responsibility for government as a force of good and not the enemy of the people.

I think it is time to reinvent the old federal Progressive Conservative party philosophy even if under the Liberal label. That is where the vote rich and disenchanted progressive middle is in Canada today.

Trends, Value Drivers and a Mood for Change is in the Air!

WHAT ARE THE VALUE DRIVERS FOR VOTERS?
The crunch time for citizens is fast approaching as we reflect on who we will grant our consent to govern us. What are the dominant value drivers we will use to make this decision? Will it be the comprehensiveness of the party platforms, the character of the leaders or a major issue like health care, the environment or the economy? Will it be a feeling of anxiety over jobs and protecting savings or traditional voting habits? Will it be a strategic vote to block a poor option or bad outcome?

Trends indicate momentum and in the final four days those elements become all important as candidates and leaders try to get traction. Traction is needed so voters will take the time and actually show up and show their support at the ballot box.

CANADA IS NOT ON THE RIGHT TRACK:
Strategic Counsel has been tracking 45 tight battle ground seats in Quebec, Ontario and B.C. The sentiment of if Canada is on the right track has been trending down since Harper called his election. In B.C. it closes at 48% positive dropping significantly from a high of 57%. Ontario is now even more uncertain with a positive trend sentiment of 44% of significantly form a high of 57% a month ago. Quebec is the worst with only 46% positive sentiment dropping from 60% at the start of the election.

Other pollsters are saying Harper is coming back into potential majority government territory.

In B.C. the voters are shifting to the Liberals in the final stages and have the same 33% support they had at the 2006 election. The Conservatives and NDP are both 4% lower than last election.

The Greens are up 9% and it will be interesting if they vote strategically for Liberals to stop Harper given there is only a 2 point spread. Green votes for Liberals would make a big difference in B.C. outcomes.

In Ontario the Cons lead but are 10 points off their high and 1 point behind last election results. The Liberals are a full 6 points off the 2006 election results and all that support has gone to the Greens who are up 6. Again one has to wonder if the Ontario Greens will vote for local Liberals for strategic purposes.

Quebec’s story is the Bloc beating down the Conservatives down to the same levels as the unpopular Liberals. NDP and Green voters are the most likely to switch their votes, 28% and 32% respectively.

THE MOOD FOR A CHANGE OF GOVERNMENT HAS GROWN:
The mood for a change to a new government has increased significantly in the three battle ground provinces too. Since the election call B.C. voters who want a different government has jumped to 49% from 40%. Ontario is also in the mood for a change in government now at 54% up from 43% from when the election was called. In Quebec, the place where Harper really blew it, the mood for a change in government in Ottawa jumped to 63% from a mere 45% when the election was called.

These levels of people hunkering for a change do not bode well for Harper – unless he can position himself as the candidate of change in the next 4 days. So far his messaging has been just the opposite as he campaigns on he is the stable status quo guy who will Do Nothing to respond to the market meltdown. Layton and May are not in the game and Dion is struggling but the Liberal Team is making a difference.

I am not taking bets this election and don’t know anyone who is.

Pollsters Predict Harper is Back in Majority Territory.

The volatility in the Canadian election continues and there are races in some constituencies that are closer than anyone ever expected and impossible to call.

Strategic voting is the nagging question for soft Green and Dipper voters going into the weekend. Vote swapping is a new but growing phenomenon so citizens can "make their votes count" for the party they prefer.

If Harper is not threatening to win a majority the Green and Dipper vote firms up and stategic voting thought wane. If Harper is threatening to achieve a majority then the soft voters start thinking about strategic voting and vote swapping.

As of today, pollsters are telling us Harper is once again threatening a majority government...even without Quebec's suport he was conting on. The EKOS and Harris Decima rolling polls shows the Harper Conservatives have hit bottom and the trend is got an uptick yesterday.

Today EKOS seat projection says Harper is within MAJORITY territory once again with possibility of 152 seats. 155 seats are a majoirty. EKOS notes that “Seat projection models can be sensitive to small shifts in the regional distribution of support.” The go further and say “In sum, we (EKOS) think if anything this projection may somewhat understate Conservative strength.” Strategic voting therefore becomes a critical concern again going into the final weekend.

Harris Decima has the Conservatives up2 points to 34% and the Liberals and NDs dropping 1 point each leaving an 8 point Conservative lead. Harper and Dion are statistically tied in Ontario and Quebec meaning every vote counts for second place behind the Bloc.

The Liberals are the major second choice for Dippers but the Conservatives have seen a significant resurgence in NDP second soft choices since the debates. Harris Decima says the market turmoil will have significant impact on voter psychology over the weekend before Election Day. They say “The economy and the potential movements of the NDP and Green support are the most important factors to watch heading in the final weekend of campaigning.”

Elizabeth May is endorsing strategic voting to Stop Harper. She is quoted in today's Globe and Mail saying: "I just think Canadians need to take a long hard look at the potential here to get rid of the government of Stephen Harper and all the it represents." She is not saying vote strategically in those races that are not tight. But in those that are close then strategic voting to Stop Harper is well advised.

Like Don Martin, I am going into this weekend with no idea what the final election outcome will be. All scenarios are possible. It is very similar to how I felt going into the final weekend in the March Alberta election. The mood there was for change and the electorate who showed up still gave Ed Stelmach, the incumbent Progressive Conservative, an enormous majority government.

This weekend as Canadians gather around family Thanksgiving dinners they will be thinking twice before they vote once. The market turmoil and economic concerns will dominate. It is a 2 horse race between Harper and Dion's team. May and Layton are also-rans and at least she knows it.

Will they believe in Harper's indifference and Do Nothing approach is the best way to go? Do they think Dion's consultative and deliberative planning approach with the help of Paul Martin be a better way forward?

The Election Trends Are Changing in the Home Stretch

Harris Decima and EKOS rolling polling results up to yesterday showed some interesting and shifting trends. The Cons have been humbled and Harper has been accurately framed by his own words and deeds as cold callous and uncaring about the anguish of ordinary Canadians.

That said the Conservatives slide has seemed to stabilize. If that sustains, Harper is likely to form government again unless Harper blows it even more in the next 5 days. Campaigns matter and anything can happen.

The demographic shifts and regional volatility is where the interesting changes are occurring. The sample sizes in the regions and provinces are very small and very unreliable in each poll. If you can believe the polls, which is not a given, the Cons look like they have regained their solid in B.C. and stealing soft NDP support.

In Quebec the Cons have dropped 10 points and flirting for 4th place with the NDP. Here the Cons failure is most dramatic. After promising Quebec per capita spending of about $94o, pandering language about fiscal imbalance and “Quebec nation” has been rejected. Quebec has seen Harper for who he is. His “dissing” of artists and demeaning culture and putting children jail for life has shown Harper does not share the same values as Quebecers. The released costs of the Afghan war twice as high as Harper said it would be will be another big blow to Harper’s support in Quebec.

Ontario and Atlantic Canada is a sprint to what will be a photo-finish because the support is all so
close.

If Harper was in majority territory strategic voting would be important. It will still be a factor in close and key ridings and I will post on that later. The polls note the Liberals will be the largest beneficiaries of strategic vote switchers – if that happens. The Greens are the most likely to switch Liberal for strategic purposes. About 60% of Undecided voters are still up for grabs as strategic voters but only a third of them are saying they would vote mostly to stop a Con majority.

Harris Decima shows the NDP national support is showing slippage but they are still healthy except in Quebec…no surprise! In Ontario they are growing but the Liberals are ahead of the Cons and that is the real story.

The big shift that may make al the difference is the female voter. They are leaving the NDP and moving to the Liberals. The Liberals have more female support than Harper for the first time since the election call. When it comes to urban female support the Liberals have really taking off moving up 10 points in a week taking it away from Harper and Layton.

I’m thinking there will be some serious strategic voting with soft Greens going Liberal and NDP soft female support doing the same thing on a constituency basis, not nationally. Quebec voters are the only ones who had a larger advanced poll than in 2004 and they are going to bury Harper on Tuesday. Ontario and Atlantic Canada may shift to a larger Liberal vote if they realize that Danny Williams and Bill Casey is right and they have been screwed around on the Atlantic Accord by Harper.

Right now Harper’s death-mo decline in popularity has stopped but who knows where it goes. Dion has gotten into the game and the advent of Martin joining his team can only serve him well in gaining the confidence of Canadians in these turbulent times.

Don't Trust the Polls - Remember How Wrong They Were in 2006

Here is a disturbing poll result. It is a post English debate ayalysis. I am disappointed, not because Dion did not win and Harper did. There is some silver lining in that Harper did lose ground during the debate because 36% of viewers had a worse opinion of him and only 29% improved their opinion of him.

May and Layton were the big winners of the English debates...hands down. Duceppe impressed and Dion held his own and got to show us who he is without the "advantage of Puffins and Harper's personal attack ads on him.

The disappointment is that the poll is apparently based on opinions formed after only watching the first hour of the debate. If this is true the results are suspect and the methodology is to.

That would be like watching the first half of the movie and then doing a review of the whole movie without seeing it all. Not good. Say it ain’t so Ipsos Reid.

Post-Debate Poll Shows a Glimmer of Hope for Dion

Nanos has the first poll results I have seen post-debate. The debate may have been won by Harper according to an Ipsos Reid poll but remember that poll was taken only after the first hour of the debate not after the entire event was completed. People need to see the how show before they will form any kind of dependable poll based conclusion. Take the Ipsos poll on debate results with a large grains of salt given the questionable methodology used.


Nanos sees Dion doing rather well with a bump in the party standings as well as in perceptions about his leadership skills. The Cons have dropped to 34% from a high of 41%. They are more than 2% points below the January 2006 election results. The Liberals under Dion are exactly where they were in the last election under Martin. The Dipper are up 1.5 points and the Bloc is not changed and the Greens are up 2 points over the 2006 election results.


This is not telling us much more. Remember Harper's votes are very efficiently concentrated in rural ridings and the rest of the players split the towns and cities. Harper could still do well in total seats. And we don't know is this is a one-time shift or a sustainable trend yet.


Stay tuned. This week will set the tone and make or break Stephen Harper's aspirations for a majority government. His last minute release of a campaign platform better be great or it will just remind voters how indifferent he is to telling them his plans - other than do nothing to help in the growing financial fallout from the American financial meltdown.


The last long weekend before the voting will be where Canadians reflect on Harper, his leadership style of bullying and do nothing about the environment and the economy and his one-man command and control governance style. Does he truly reflect the kind of Canada we are and want to become. That is where the trust, openness and honesty issues will come to bear on his political prospects.

Not a Good Week for Harper

The National Post coverage is continuing in its role as the unofficial house organ for the Harper Conservatives. Here is an election story today saying it was a good week for Stephen Harper’s campaign.


The National Post also uses a 5 day old Nanos poll result to "prove" its point. That makes Harper look like he is doing better than the current Nanos poll evidence would currently indicate.

The National Post’s discriminating framing the facts and being selective sampling of sections of the “truth” is the Harper modus. This political model is a clone of George Bush’s Rovarian cancer campaign tactics. Here is the current Nano poll results showing a very different gap between Harper and Dion.

How can the National Post support this good week conclusion when Harper lost the French debate and dropped dramatically behind the Bloc in polls. Harper trashed is own myth about supporting the Quebec Nation concept as he cut the heart and soul out of the policy pandering with arts and culture cuts at the same time.


Quebec's soft nationalists have decided Harper can't be trusted and they are returning to the Bloc en masse. Pundits are saying Harper has forfeited his hope for a majority with this shunning by Quebec voters because of his MISLEADING them. Ironically Liberal Ontario seems to be coming to Harper’s rescue as of late and B.C. is in play, so a majority is still possible.

As well the Ipsos Reid poll on the English debate shows that Harper won but with a performance rated significantly below expectations. Then there is the post debt shift shown in the running Nanos poll where Dion and May get a bounce and Harper starts to shrink.


The debates may be a game changer but not if Harper will win. Harper will win, barring a personal political disaster, which can always happen in the last 10 days. So presuming Harper will win the ballot question is do we Canadians trust him with the absolute personal power of a majority - or not.


That question will beg the next question. Who will be the best leader of the opposition to take Harper on and keep him honest and on his toes. The answer is obvious. Layton is a mere opportunist without much modesty in spite of the fact he has much to be modest about. May needs to be elected and when she beats Mackay she will humble the Conservatives, who obviously need it. She will be like Jimminy Cricket and the guiding conscious of the House of Commons.


The obvious strategic choice for leader of the opposition is Dion. His record as a parliamentarian has proven he has the best personal understanding and alignment with Canadian values. He also has the right stuff to stand up to the Harper bullying - even when it is personal and vicious.


Dion has a proven personal love and commitment to Canada. He championed the Clarity Act to ensure Canada stays together and the federalism is respected. He is a 21st century leader who can integrate economic, environmental and social policy together. He will ensure that we will not turn more American under Harper's reign. Remember his world leadership on Climate Change in Montreal a couple of years ago where he manged to bring the USA in line with Kyoto principles.

Dion won the French debate which surprised everyone. He was able to come into the Canadian living rooms n the English debate so we could get to know him personally. He was well accepted and connected with people.He showed us he was not the person pilloried in the nasty mean-spirited television attack ads that the Conservatives spent millions and months on to belittle Dion.

The Canadian Voter is "Up for Grabs" - Nik Nanos

I am encouraged by Nik Nanos’ survey showing that 60% of Canadian voters are “up for grabs.” This means that most of us could change our votes if there is a reason to do so.

This will auger well for end of campaign strategic voting. We saw this in 2004 and the shift away from scary Harper’s control-freak version of Canada with him in control of everything. It could happen again. It must happen again.

The citizens of Canada need to ensure the Harper Conservatives do not get a majority government. If they do, Harper will make into Canada into a one-party NEO-REPUBLICAN STATE. That is ENOUGH REASON enough to vote ABC – Anything But Conservative.

The Cons have the most hard-core group of voters…ignoring the Bloc which don’t count for the rest of Canada who are outside Quebec. Half of Harper’s partisans are true-believers and “Very Firm” in their voting intentions…and they will show up at the polls for sure. If the rest of us stay home, that is enough to give Harper a majority government

The Greens are the next most solid group of party supporters at 43% Very Firm, but there are not a lot of them. The Greens are ironically the most fluid group too with 18% saying they are “Not At All Sure” if they will vote for their party.

The NDP support for Layton is about 50/50 overall with 44% saying they are “Somewhat Firm” compared to 39% in the “Very Firm” category and 7% who are really unsure of voting along party lines.

The Liberals are even softer than the NDP. The only have 36% of true believers and the largest group of Somewhat Firm (47%) and Not At All Firm at 9%. This is an obvious reflection of ambiguousness over Dion’s leadership and the lack-lustre campaign so far.

My guess is the election is all about Harper and if he can be trusted as a person, not just as a manager. Readers of this Blog know I think the answer is unequivocally NO! I think his is also a danger to democracy.

If others agree then strategic voting will become the norm to stop Harper in the last week of the campaign. For many reasons Layton will not be the beneficiary of this strategic voting, not the least of which was his agreeing with Harper to keep May out of the debates.

Here is how I see it happening. The Liberals will hold their noses and rally behind Dion. Greens will stay with May in her own riding and where they are competitive like Linda Duncan in Edmonton Strathcona but most of them will shift to Liberals. The NDP will split evenly between staying with Layton and shifting to Liberals to void vote splitting and giving a majority to Harper.

The cynical and disengaged may get scared by Harper’s sly, negative an conniving campaign style and show up to stop him. This will be because they begin to see the disaster that will befall them if they do show up and vote against Harper’s lust for personal political power. Anyone who thinks this election is inconsequential because it is essentially unnecessary and stay away from the polls is sleep walking to a disaster. That disaster is a Conservative majority government led by a power hungry control freak by the name of Stephen Harper.

Time to show up and vote Canada and make sure that does not happen!

The Greens Get to Debate. Harper and Layton Fold. Canadians Win!

Green lights for Elizabeth May! She is the election debates. YES!!!!

The forces of evil (Harper and Layton) have been vanquished…or at least they are humbled and brought to heel...by the power of engaged and enraged citizenship. Good start Canada. Now keep it up for the rest of this unnecessary and expensive election.

This is what can happen when citizens take back the power from the politicians and the patricians. This election is not the private property of the politicians and the political parties. Elections are about citizens deciding what is important going forward and who they dare trust to move us forward in the best way possible.

Good start Canada. Now keep up the good work and let Harper know we don’t buy his phony excuses about why we are paying $400,000,000 for an unnecessary election. It is not appropriate for him to screw us around just because he wants majority and has his heart set on breaking and bankrupting the Liberals...just for his personal political and power hungry purposes...and the hell with democracy.

Tell Duceppe he was right to move off the national stage as he thought to do earlier this term. The option open to him now is not the leadership of the Quebec PQ but to get off the national political stage entirely - and preferably PDQ!

Tell Layton to quit worrying if May is eating his political lunch – she is! Deal with it like a statesman not an henchman. If Layton is so delusional that he thinks we will buy his pretense that he is the Canadian Obama, he doesn’t know Jack…but we Canadians do! Give him a reality check.

Stephane – you need to start getting busier and bolder about explaining what will be the dire consequences to Canada if Harper get to have his way with us...not just a majority government...if any kind of Harper government.

Thoughtful progressive Canadians can't afford to abdicate our responsibility for active political engagement. It is our duty and our obligations to define OUR sense of democracy and not delegate it to Harper.

Cynicism is not an option – unless you want Harper to take over everything and control all of us like he does his caucus. Harper will end up ruling over us like a mini-me combination of George Bush and the Dick known as Cheney.

BTW:
Observation on the stupidest media question the campaign so far…to Steve Harper about what kind of vegetable he would be…if he were one! Most telling political answer given in the campaign so far! Harper’s reply to the stupidest question! He would rather be a fruit…! He is right. He would not be sweet and colourful as he aspires and alleges. He is a fruit, a prickly pear…pure and simple...but without appeal. (sic).

Who is Really Responsible for Excluding the Greens From the Television Debates?

I am appalled. The decision by the television network consortium to exclude the Green Party from the debates is reprehensible. They put the blame three of the four political parties for this decision. That is the Harper, the Layton New Democrats and the Duceppe Bloc to be exact. If that is the case, then there lots of blame to go around and Canadian citizens should be outraged.


What are the names, email addresses and phone numbers of these mysterious television network "deciders" Who empowered them to operate behind these closed doors on such matters? I want to know exactly who they are and how to get in touch with them and to give them a piece of my mind directly and publicly.

The news reports say three of the four other federal parties were opposed to her participation. That means everyone by the Dion Liberals. Harper, Duceppe and Layton all threatened to withdraw from the debates if May was included. Shame on them! This is totally unacceptable.

I think it is pure exaggeration and blame shifting for the network consortium to allege that the major parties would not actually participate in an election debate because the Greens were included. Spare me. It that is the case, the consortium should have insisted the three political party leaders make their own announcement and give their reasons publicly. They should be telling us why they want to exclude the Greens and if they are threatening a boycott if she was to be included.


The breathtaking arrogance of these guys is astonishing. Who do they all think they are? The Greens have proven to be a viable and emerging political force in the country. According to an extensive Ipsos Reid Poll of over 4000 Canadians done September 6th the Greens enjoy support of 10% of the nation’s voters.

They are the choice of 13% of BC voters and 14% of Ontario voters and are tied with the NDP in Alberta at 10% support. Harper is losing former Red Tory Progressive Conservatives to Greens - the Red Greens as I like to call them.


The Greens do even better in the urban battleground where the Greens are ahead or equal to the NDP in the critical areas of the 905 and Toronto. Layton and Harper think this is their country. This is even more interesting. The Greens in Harper’s hometown of Calgary are at 13% support. That is more than double the NDP who languish at 6% Calgary support.

Last election the Greens ran a full slate meaning anyone in Canada could vote for them. Duceppe’s Bloc only runs Quebec candidates, meaning a limited number of candidates and only Quebecer can vote for them. This is a national election, not a Quebec election. Given the limitations of the Bloc’s participation, should the consortium should disqualify the Bloc’s participation too? Of course not! Quebec separatists have even qualified and served as Her Majesty's Loyal Opposition. And then they say the Greens are not even eligible to merely participate in an election debate. Unbelievable. Shame on them.

The MSM is out of line - way out of line. If they are telling the truth about the Conservatives, the NDP and the Bloc threatening to boycott the debate if the Greens are in, then they should have had those leaders make the public announcement to exclude the Greens.

If that is not the real reason for the consortium decision to exclude the Greens then the various television network heads should have their heads roll. Who do they think they are? How dare they presume that they get to decide who we citizens get to see and hear in a debate about OUR future and in OUR election. This is not a cheap realty TV show. It is about the deciding the very nature of the country. It is not about a bunch of anxiety riddled political leaders who are better at gamesmanship than governing.

This election is not just about producing a mediocre television program. It is not even about the political parties or the political leaders. It is about citizens becoming engaged and informed to make a considered decision about who they will trust with their consent to be governed. An election is one of the most important events in the lives of engaged citizens.

It is not the job of the television networks to make or manipulate such a decision. They have shown with this decision that they are prepared to abuse their privilege of the social license to operate their broadcast business over OUR airwaves. Shame on all those involved.

Get real guys and immediately reverse this stupid decision. If those arrogant political leaders and their parties refuse to participate if the Greens are involved May then cancel the damn debate. The three political parties and their arrogant leaders would not dare pass on the television debates. It is just too critical for them in the larger scheme of things.

If they do end up boycotting then let them. The Blogosphere will step up and take over the responsibility to fully inform the public about what is really going on this election.

Day One: Harper Says He's Mr. Rogers and Layton Says He's a Canuck Obama. LOL!

Here are some first impressions of the Harper and Layton election campaign launches.

HARPER:
Harper is using TV ads to repackage his image as Mr. Rogers and wants to “welcome us to his neighbourhood.” He will spend millions of dollars to try and convince Canadians he has moved away from his chair kicking micro-manager control freak leadership style.

He will leave Canadians wondering who about the real Stephen Harper. Is the conniving and deceitful promise breaker dead? Is the Eerie Uncle Steve television commercial shot in soft focused sepia-tone with Harper in a sweater vest the real man? I don’t think so.

He has been repeatedly evasive and unconvincing why he is forcing an election now in breach of his own fixed election law. He says in an opening day CTV interview that his government has accomplished a lot since elected, including passing three budgets and plenty of legislation. So he is a successful government and an accomplished leader. So much for a dysfunctional Parliament!

He says he wants to spend $400m of our tax money on an unnecessary election just so he can lead another minority government. What a waste of money. What hubris and arrogance. I expect Harper’s election campaign this will prove unequivocally to the majority of Canadians that he is not to be trusted. If the lead up and the first day are any indication of the future of Harper campaign style it will be about a thousand points of bullshit.

LAYTON:
Jack has already embarrassed himself by claiming to be the Canadian Obama in the launch of his campaign. Spare me. He is running for second place because he believes the pointless popularity poll ranking that puts him minimally ahead of Dion in leadership capability. He forgets or ignores the impact of the Cons who have spent about $2,000,000.00 in carpet bombing television attach ads in the past year framing Dion as "not a leader."

Ironically Dion has obviously personally suffered from the attack ads, but the Liberal brand has not. The Libs have stayed statistically tied with the Cons in popular support in spite of the carpet bombing attack ads by the Cons. Now we have an election and leadership is really an issue. Layton claiming to be an Obama wanna-be is embarrassing and awkward at so many levels. Self-delusion is not a winning quality for political success. Jack’s fantasy narrative as the Canuck Obama is going to at least make him subject to snickering if not outright ridicule.

In reality Jack is pretending to look ahead to take a direct run at Harper. In reality he is actually looking over his shoulder at the growing popularity of the Greens under Elizabeth May. The May Greens will be breathing down Jack’s his neck all over the country. The Greens will prove to be the safe parking lot of choice for the millions of disenchanted voters who want to send a message to the old-school parties…including Jack and the NDP.

CONSIDER THE CONSEQUENCES:
The real test of Layton’s shift-to-the-right leadership will be if he ends up holding the balance of power if the election outcome is a Harper minority government. He will no longer have the luxury of dog-in-a-manger voting tactic without fear of causing an unnecessary election. Jack likes to criticize Dion for supporting the last Harper government and he brags that he consistently voted against the old Harper government. A new Harper minority Jack will be intimidated, bullied and extorted. That will put the Layton Dippers on the bubble next time.

We will then see just how committed Jack will be to his political principles. We will see him really tested as to the quality of his character if he turns out to be a Harper sock puppet if this election returns another Harper minority.