Pollsters Predict Harper is Back in Majority Territory.

The volatility in the Canadian election continues and there are races in some constituencies that are closer than anyone ever expected and impossible to call.

Strategic voting is the nagging question for soft Green and Dipper voters going into the weekend. Vote swapping is a new but growing phenomenon so citizens can "make their votes count" for the party they prefer.

If Harper is not threatening to win a majority the Green and Dipper vote firms up and stategic voting thought wane. If Harper is threatening to achieve a majority then the soft voters start thinking about strategic voting and vote swapping.

As of today, pollsters are telling us Harper is once again threatening a majority government...even without Quebec's suport he was conting on. The EKOS and Harris Decima rolling polls shows the Harper Conservatives have hit bottom and the trend is got an uptick yesterday.

Today EKOS seat projection says Harper is within MAJORITY territory once again with possibility of 152 seats. 155 seats are a majoirty. EKOS notes that “Seat projection models can be sensitive to small shifts in the regional distribution of support.” The go further and say “In sum, we (EKOS) think if anything this projection may somewhat understate Conservative strength.” Strategic voting therefore becomes a critical concern again going into the final weekend.

Harris Decima has the Conservatives up2 points to 34% and the Liberals and NDs dropping 1 point each leaving an 8 point Conservative lead. Harper and Dion are statistically tied in Ontario and Quebec meaning every vote counts for second place behind the Bloc.

The Liberals are the major second choice for Dippers but the Conservatives have seen a significant resurgence in NDP second soft choices since the debates. Harris Decima says the market turmoil will have significant impact on voter psychology over the weekend before Election Day. They say “The economy and the potential movements of the NDP and Green support are the most important factors to watch heading in the final weekend of campaigning.”

Elizabeth May is endorsing strategic voting to Stop Harper. She is quoted in today's Globe and Mail saying: "I just think Canadians need to take a long hard look at the potential here to get rid of the government of Stephen Harper and all the it represents." She is not saying vote strategically in those races that are not tight. But in those that are close then strategic voting to Stop Harper is well advised.

Like Don Martin, I am going into this weekend with no idea what the final election outcome will be. All scenarios are possible. It is very similar to how I felt going into the final weekend in the March Alberta election. The mood there was for change and the electorate who showed up still gave Ed Stelmach, the incumbent Progressive Conservative, an enormous majority government.

This weekend as Canadians gather around family Thanksgiving dinners they will be thinking twice before they vote once. The market turmoil and economic concerns will dominate. It is a 2 horse race between Harper and Dion's team. May and Layton are also-rans and at least she knows it.

Will they believe in Harper's indifference and Do Nothing approach is the best way to go? Do they think Dion's consultative and deliberative planning approach with the help of Paul Martin be a better way forward?

Harper's Empathy Deficit

Doesn't this Globe and Mail political cartoon by Gable say everything you need to know about Harper's view of regular Canadians in time of crisis?

Environment Site Endorses Liberal Wachowich in Edmonton Centre.

Vote for the Environment is a group encouraging strategic voting. They have endorsed Jim Wachowich in Edmonton Centre. They note the NDP and Greens in Edmonton Centre would have to get behind him to make it happen.

It is the seat represented by Anne McLellan, the former Deputy Prime Minister of Canada. Her supporters have moved with her and are solidly behind Wachowich's bid to send Harper a message and defeat the Conservative candidate.

Strategic voting and vote swapping has begun and may make all the difference in close ridings all across the country. Edmonton Centre is in the centre of strategic voting efforts.

Time for Alberta Strategic Voters to Stop Harper

Have we Albertans gotten our money’s worth from 28 Conservative MPs? If you read the pre-election spending in the 3 months before the election Harper spent $941 per person in Quebec and a mere $15 per person in Alberta. How is that fair to Alberta, where Harper allegedly calls his “home?”

Quebec flirted with voting Conservatives for the first few weeks in this election. Then they saw through Harper and have not just rejected him, they are now shunning him. Ironically it is Quebec that is actually saving Canada as a country by ensuring Harper only gets a minority government at best.

Wake up Alberta. We are being taken for granted and have been ignored ever since Harper came to power. Now he wants to interfere in Alberta’s natural resources by controlling bitumen exports and mess with nuclear power in our province. So much for the old Reform Party Harper who wanted to protect Alberta from interference from Ottawa with "Firewall."

Wake up Alberta. Send Harper a message on October 14th. Vote strategically to elect Wachowich in Edmonton Centre, Duncan in Edmonton Strathcona and Ford in Edmonton Sherwood Park. These are strong candidates with vital voices with proven ability. They will not be a mute minion in a Harper caucus under his command and control one-man kind of leadership.

Stelmach to Harper - Stay Out of Alberta's Business!

I was going to write a blog post on Premier Stelmach’s entry into the federal election and his taking on Prime Minister Harper’s intervention into Alberta’s business. This is very unusual, especially for two fiscal conservatives to be engaging this way but I applaud Premier Stelmach for in engagement. I then read Paula Simons Edmonton Journal column today and she says it so much better than I can as a Progressive Conservative partisan.


I was thinking of the irony of Harper’s isolationist attitude about Alberta’s future as he signed the famous Firewall letter and now he imposes himself into Alberta’s business. I think it may be better for us if he continued to ignore Alberta instead of interfering in our business.
I see Stelmach’s style is so different from Harper. Harper build firewalls and imposes barriers.


Stelmach, on the other hand is in Toronto and Montreal to explain how Alberta is a partner in the national economy and ecology. Harper is oblivious to the devastation the global market meltdown will have on Canadians. Stelmach is calling on his fellow Premiers to have an emergency meeting to deal with the impacts on citizens across the country. You would think the man who wants to stay Prime Minister would be taking this lead.


Stelmach has enough on his plate fighting ENGOS on oil sands issues and now he has to fend off the Prime Minister - a fellow Conservative but no friend of Alberta of her jurisdiction. With friends like these…!