WHAT ARE THE VALUE DRIVERS FOR VOTERS?
The crunch time for citizens is fast approaching as we reflect on who we will grant our consent to govern us. What are the dominant value drivers we will use to make this decision? Will it be the comprehensiveness of the party platforms, the character of the leaders or a major issue like health care, the environment or the economy? Will it be a feeling of anxiety over jobs and protecting savings or traditional voting habits? Will it be a strategic vote to block a poor option or bad outcome?
Trends indicate momentum and in the final four days those elements become all important as candidates and leaders try to get traction. Traction is needed so voters will take the time and actually show up and show their support at the ballot box.
CANADA IS NOT ON THE RIGHT TRACK:
Strategic Counsel has been tracking 45 tight battle ground seats in Quebec, Ontario and B.C. The sentiment of if Canada is on the right track has been trending down since Harper called his election. In B.C. it closes at 48% positive dropping significantly from a high of 57%. Ontario is now even more uncertain with a positive trend sentiment of 44% of significantly form a high of 57% a month ago. Quebec is the worst with only 46% positive sentiment dropping from 60% at the start of the election.
Other pollsters are saying Harper is coming back into potential majority government territory.
In B.C. the voters are shifting to the Liberals in the final stages and have the same 33% support they had at the 2006 election. The Conservatives and NDP are both 4% lower than last election.
The Greens are up 9% and it will be interesting if they vote strategically for Liberals to stop Harper given there is only a 2 point spread. Green votes for Liberals would make a big difference in B.C. outcomes.
In Ontario the Cons lead but are 10 points off their high and 1 point behind last election results. The Liberals are a full 6 points off the 2006 election results and all that support has gone to the Greens who are up 6. Again one has to wonder if the Ontario Greens will vote for local Liberals for strategic purposes.
Quebec’s story is the Bloc beating down the Conservatives down to the same levels as the unpopular Liberals. NDP and Green voters are the most likely to switch their votes, 28% and 32% respectively.
THE MOOD FOR A CHANGE OF GOVERNMENT HAS GROWN:
The mood for a change to a new government has increased significantly in the three battle ground provinces too. Since the election call B.C. voters who want a different government has jumped to 49% from 40%. Ontario is also in the mood for a change in government now at 54% up from 43% from when the election was called. In Quebec, the place where Harper really blew it, the mood for a change in government in Ottawa jumped to 63% from a mere 45% when the election was called.
These levels of people hunkering for a change do not bode well for Harper – unless he can position himself as the candidate of change in the next 4 days. So far his messaging has been just the opposite as he campaigns on he is the stable status quo guy who will Do Nothing to respond to the market meltdown. Layton and May are not in the game and Dion is struggling but the Liberal Team is making a difference.
I am not taking bets this election and don’t know anyone who is.
Friday, October 10, 2008
Pollsters Predict Harper is Back in Majority Territory.
The volatility in the Canadian election continues and there are races in some constituencies that are closer than anyone ever expected and impossible to call.
Strategic voting is the nagging question for soft Green and Dipper voters going into the weekend. Vote swapping is a new but growing phenomenon so citizens can "make their votes count" for the party they prefer.
If Harper is not threatening to win a majority the Green and Dipper vote firms up and stategic voting thought wane. If Harper is threatening to achieve a majority then the soft voters start thinking about strategic voting and vote swapping.
As of today, pollsters are telling us Harper is once again threatening a majority government...even without Quebec's suport he was conting on. The EKOS and Harris Decima rolling polls shows the Harper Conservatives have hit bottom and the trend is got an uptick yesterday.
Today EKOS seat projection says Harper is within MAJORITY territory once again with possibility of 152 seats. 155 seats are a majoirty. EKOS notes that “Seat projection models can be sensitive to small shifts in the regional distribution of support.” The go further and say “In sum, we (EKOS) think if anything this projection may somewhat understate Conservative strength.” Strategic voting therefore becomes a critical concern again going into the final weekend.
Harris Decima has the Conservatives up2 points to 34% and the Liberals and NDs dropping 1 point each leaving an 8 point Conservative lead. Harper and Dion are statistically tied in Ontario and Quebec meaning every vote counts for second place behind the Bloc.
The Liberals are the major second choice for Dippers but the Conservatives have seen a significant resurgence in NDP second soft choices since the debates. Harris Decima says the market turmoil will have significant impact on voter psychology over the weekend before Election Day. They say “The economy and the potential movements of the NDP and Green support are the most important factors to watch heading in the final weekend of campaigning.”
Elizabeth May is endorsing strategic voting to Stop Harper. She is quoted in today's Globe and Mail saying: "I just think Canadians need to take a long hard look at the potential here to get rid of the government of Stephen Harper and all the it represents." She is not saying vote strategically in those races that are not tight. But in those that are close then strategic voting to Stop Harper is well advised.
Like Don Martin, I am going into this weekend with no idea what the final election outcome will be. All scenarios are possible. It is very similar to how I felt going into the final weekend in the March Alberta election. The mood there was for change and the electorate who showed up still gave Ed Stelmach, the incumbent Progressive Conservative, an enormous majority government.
This weekend as Canadians gather around family Thanksgiving dinners they will be thinking twice before they vote once. The market turmoil and economic concerns will dominate. It is a 2 horse race between Harper and Dion's team. May and Layton are also-rans and at least she knows it.
Will they believe in Harper's indifference and Do Nothing approach is the best way to go? Do they think Dion's consultative and deliberative planning approach with the help of Paul Martin be a better way forward?
Strategic voting is the nagging question for soft Green and Dipper voters going into the weekend. Vote swapping is a new but growing phenomenon so citizens can "make their votes count" for the party they prefer.
If Harper is not threatening to win a majority the Green and Dipper vote firms up and stategic voting thought wane. If Harper is threatening to achieve a majority then the soft voters start thinking about strategic voting and vote swapping.
As of today, pollsters are telling us Harper is once again threatening a majority government...even without Quebec's suport he was conting on. The EKOS and Harris Decima rolling polls shows the Harper Conservatives have hit bottom and the trend is got an uptick yesterday.
Today EKOS seat projection says Harper is within MAJORITY territory once again with possibility of 152 seats. 155 seats are a majoirty. EKOS notes that “Seat projection models can be sensitive to small shifts in the regional distribution of support.” The go further and say “In sum, we (EKOS) think if anything this projection may somewhat understate Conservative strength.” Strategic voting therefore becomes a critical concern again going into the final weekend.
Harris Decima has the Conservatives up2 points to 34% and the Liberals and NDs dropping 1 point each leaving an 8 point Conservative lead. Harper and Dion are statistically tied in Ontario and Quebec meaning every vote counts for second place behind the Bloc.
The Liberals are the major second choice for Dippers but the Conservatives have seen a significant resurgence in NDP second soft choices since the debates. Harris Decima says the market turmoil will have significant impact on voter psychology over the weekend before Election Day. They say “The economy and the potential movements of the NDP and Green support are the most important factors to watch heading in the final weekend of campaigning.”
Elizabeth May is endorsing strategic voting to Stop Harper. She is quoted in today's Globe and Mail saying: "I just think Canadians need to take a long hard look at the potential here to get rid of the government of Stephen Harper and all the it represents." She is not saying vote strategically in those races that are not tight. But in those that are close then strategic voting to Stop Harper is well advised.
Like Don Martin, I am going into this weekend with no idea what the final election outcome will be. All scenarios are possible. It is very similar to how I felt going into the final weekend in the March Alberta election. The mood there was for change and the electorate who showed up still gave Ed Stelmach, the incumbent Progressive Conservative, an enormous majority government.
This weekend as Canadians gather around family Thanksgiving dinners they will be thinking twice before they vote once. The market turmoil and economic concerns will dominate. It is a 2 horse race between Harper and Dion's team. May and Layton are also-rans and at least she knows it.
Will they believe in Harper's indifference and Do Nothing approach is the best way to go? Do they think Dion's consultative and deliberative planning approach with the help of Paul Martin be a better way forward?
Thursday, October 09, 2008
Harper's Empathy Deficit
Doesn't this Globe and Mail political cartoon by Gable say everything you need to know about Harper's view of regular Canadians in time of crisis?
Environment Site Endorses Liberal Wachowich in Edmonton Centre.
Vote for the Environment is a group encouraging strategic voting. They have endorsed Jim Wachowich in Edmonton Centre. They note the NDP and Greens in Edmonton Centre would have to get behind him to make it happen.
It is the seat represented by Anne McLellan, the former Deputy Prime Minister of Canada. Her supporters have moved with her and are solidly behind Wachowich's bid to send Harper a message and defeat the Conservative candidate.
Strategic voting and vote swapping has begun and may make all the difference in close ridings all across the country. Edmonton Centre is in the centre of strategic voting efforts.
It is the seat represented by Anne McLellan, the former Deputy Prime Minister of Canada. Her supporters have moved with her and are solidly behind Wachowich's bid to send Harper a message and defeat the Conservative candidate.
Strategic voting and vote swapping has begun and may make all the difference in close ridings all across the country. Edmonton Centre is in the centre of strategic voting efforts.
Time for Alberta Strategic Voters to Stop Harper
Have we Albertans gotten our money’s worth from 28 Conservative MPs? If you read the pre-election spending in the 3 months before the election Harper spent $941 per person in Quebec and a mere $15 per person in Alberta. How is that fair to Alberta, where Harper allegedly calls his “home?”
Quebec flirted with voting Conservatives for the first few weeks in this election. Then they saw through Harper and have not just rejected him, they are now shunning him. Ironically it is Quebec that is actually saving Canada as a country by ensuring Harper only gets a minority government at best.
Wake up Alberta. We are being taken for granted and have been ignored ever since Harper came to power. Now he wants to interfere in Alberta’s natural resources by controlling bitumen exports and mess with nuclear power in our province. So much for the old Reform Party Harper who wanted to protect Alberta from interference from Ottawa with "Firewall."
Wake up Alberta. Send Harper a message on October 14th. Vote strategically to elect Wachowich in Edmonton Centre, Duncan in Edmonton Strathcona and Ford in Edmonton Sherwood Park. These are strong candidates with vital voices with proven ability. They will not be a mute minion in a Harper caucus under his command and control one-man kind of leadership.
Quebec flirted with voting Conservatives for the first few weeks in this election. Then they saw through Harper and have not just rejected him, they are now shunning him. Ironically it is Quebec that is actually saving Canada as a country by ensuring Harper only gets a minority government at best.
Wake up Alberta. We are being taken for granted and have been ignored ever since Harper came to power. Now he wants to interfere in Alberta’s natural resources by controlling bitumen exports and mess with nuclear power in our province. So much for the old Reform Party Harper who wanted to protect Alberta from interference from Ottawa with "Firewall."
Wake up Alberta. Send Harper a message on October 14th. Vote strategically to elect Wachowich in Edmonton Centre, Duncan in Edmonton Strathcona and Ford in Edmonton Sherwood Park. These are strong candidates with vital voices with proven ability. They will not be a mute minion in a Harper caucus under his command and control one-man kind of leadership.
Subscribe to:
Comments (Atom)