I am on my way to an important meeting and then off to vote. This will be a very short post. I know what some of you are thinking - miracles do happen.
The election outcome is in the hands of Canadians who will show up who have decided to make a difference. It is not in the hands of the democracy drop-outs.
The wisdom of the crowd was shown in the last election when the Chretien/Martin Liberals needed a spanking and voters decided to give the Harper Conservatives a "test drive" with a minority government.
That test drive is over and Harper is obviously not the vehicle to take us forward on the next stage of the journey that is Canada in the ecological age. Dion is ready because he has a character, integrity and a strong team that will support him. May has proven her mettle, breadth and depth and, with Dion, both have found their footing as capable politicians and not just policy wonks. Duceppe has proven to be the true Quebec father figure - not the fraud of "I feel your pain as a nation" Harper who read Quebec so wrong. Layton has done well and deserves praise but not more support because his policy approach is still rooted in the industrial world that is long gone in Canada.
Individual races are still in play all over the country and can make all the difference in the final outcome. So gentle reader today is the the day. The future is in your hands. Vote your values and take democracy seriously again.
Tuesday, October 14, 2008
Friday, October 10, 2008
Don't Get Diverted by the Spin Doctors - Delve into the Real Issues
You have seen a day's worth of spin and parsing of words and examples of journalistic ethical lapses on the Dion Halifax CTV interview.
Here is an excerpt of the interview that will find it place in journalism schools as a mistake and an example of poor questioning:
Steve Murphy: M. Dion, you’ve said today that Mr. Harper has offered nothing to put Canadians minds at ease during this financial crisis, and you go on to say that he has no vision for the country. You say we have to act now; doing nothing is not an option. So I’d like to begin by asking you: If you were Prime Minister now, what would you have already done in this crisis that Mr. Harper hasn’t done?
Stephane Dion: I can’t, I don’t understand the question. Because are you asking me to explain sir, at which moment, today, or since a week, or 60 weeks or s…
Steve Murphy: No, if you were the Prime Minister during this time already.
Stephane Dion: We need to start again. I’m sorry, I, if I was the Prime Minister starting when? Today? If I was the Prime Minister today?
Dion Aid: If you were the Prime Minister when, since Harper’s been Prime Minister.
Stephane Dion: Ya, two years and a half, ago.
Dion Aid: At any give time.
Soooo this looks to me like a legitimate request for clarification as to the time frame referenced in the question. Dion is asking Murphy if the time frame in is question is what would he do differently from Harper IF Dion had been in power since the last election, or since the election was called in early September, or if Dion should win on Tuesday.
What Dion would do differently would differ in each case. Here is some more transcript that will show you how this is the only reasonable interpretation of Dion's request to have the question clarified.
Dion Aid: What would you have done differently between, between the time that Harper’s been there, to change the country.
Stephane Dion: Ya, but if I had been Prime Minister two years and a half ago, we’d have had an agenda. Let’s start again.
Steve Murphy: OK.
Stephane Dion: We’ll go there.
Technician: I’m rolling. Still recording.
Steve Murphy: M. Dion, thank you for coming.
Stephane Dion: Thank you Steve. Let’s start again, I’m …
[Laughter]
Steve Murphy: It’s a good job that tape is cheap.
Stephane Dion: But give me, give me a first date where I am Prime Minister that I can figure out, but, what your question is about.
Soooo...ignore the demeaning spin and take this exchange for wht it is...a failure to communicate by a professional communicator...nothing more nothing less.
We are seeing some Canadian MSM and the Conservative War Room who trying to turn this into Harper's version of the American media silliness that swirled around "Lipstick on a Pig."
There are serious issues like the economic turmoil, Afghanistan and Climate Change and health care that are not being discussed seriously enough in this election. Harper did not even respect the electorate enough to put our his campaign platform until the very last week of a 6 week campaign.
Lets move on and into the comparison of the characters of the tow front runners. Here is Dion's speech to he Canadian Club and Empire Club luncheon the day after Harper released his "platform brochure" to the exact same audience. Dion drew a much larger crowd and got 6 standing ovations. Harper had a very small audience and got a single and cursory standing "o."
Here is an excerpt of the interview that will find it place in journalism schools as a mistake and an example of poor questioning:
Steve Murphy: M. Dion, you’ve said today that Mr. Harper has offered nothing to put Canadians minds at ease during this financial crisis, and you go on to say that he has no vision for the country. You say we have to act now; doing nothing is not an option. So I’d like to begin by asking you: If you were Prime Minister now, what would you have already done in this crisis that Mr. Harper hasn’t done?
Stephane Dion: I can’t, I don’t understand the question. Because are you asking me to explain sir, at which moment, today, or since a week, or 60 weeks or s…
Steve Murphy: No, if you were the Prime Minister during this time already.
Stephane Dion: We need to start again. I’m sorry, I, if I was the Prime Minister starting when? Today? If I was the Prime Minister today?
Dion Aid: If you were the Prime Minister when, since Harper’s been Prime Minister.
Stephane Dion: Ya, two years and a half, ago.
Dion Aid: At any give time.
Soooo this looks to me like a legitimate request for clarification as to the time frame referenced in the question. Dion is asking Murphy if the time frame in is question is what would he do differently from Harper IF Dion had been in power since the last election, or since the election was called in early September, or if Dion should win on Tuesday.
What Dion would do differently would differ in each case. Here is some more transcript that will show you how this is the only reasonable interpretation of Dion's request to have the question clarified.
Dion Aid: What would you have done differently between, between the time that Harper’s been there, to change the country.
Stephane Dion: Ya, but if I had been Prime Minister two years and a half ago, we’d have had an agenda. Let’s start again.
Steve Murphy: OK.
Stephane Dion: We’ll go there.
Technician: I’m rolling. Still recording.
Steve Murphy: M. Dion, thank you for coming.
Stephane Dion: Thank you Steve. Let’s start again, I’m …
[Laughter]
Steve Murphy: It’s a good job that tape is cheap.
Stephane Dion: But give me, give me a first date where I am Prime Minister that I can figure out, but, what your question is about.
Soooo...ignore the demeaning spin and take this exchange for wht it is...a failure to communicate by a professional communicator...nothing more nothing less.
We are seeing some Canadian MSM and the Conservative War Room who trying to turn this into Harper's version of the American media silliness that swirled around "Lipstick on a Pig."
There are serious issues like the economic turmoil, Afghanistan and Climate Change and health care that are not being discussed seriously enough in this election. Harper did not even respect the electorate enough to put our his campaign platform until the very last week of a 6 week campaign.
Lets move on and into the comparison of the characters of the tow front runners. Here is Dion's speech to he Canadian Club and Empire Club luncheon the day after Harper released his "platform brochure" to the exact same audience. Dion drew a much larger crowd and got 6 standing ovations. Harper had a very small audience and got a single and cursory standing "o."
Trends, Value Drivers and a Mood for Change is in the Air!
WHAT ARE THE VALUE DRIVERS FOR VOTERS?
The crunch time for citizens is fast approaching as we reflect on who we will grant our consent to govern us. What are the dominant value drivers we will use to make this decision? Will it be the comprehensiveness of the party platforms, the character of the leaders or a major issue like health care, the environment or the economy? Will it be a feeling of anxiety over jobs and protecting savings or traditional voting habits? Will it be a strategic vote to block a poor option or bad outcome?
Trends indicate momentum and in the final four days those elements become all important as candidates and leaders try to get traction. Traction is needed so voters will take the time and actually show up and show their support at the ballot box.
CANADA IS NOT ON THE RIGHT TRACK:
Strategic Counsel has been tracking 45 tight battle ground seats in Quebec, Ontario and B.C. The sentiment of if Canada is on the right track has been trending down since Harper called his election. In B.C. it closes at 48% positive dropping significantly from a high of 57%. Ontario is now even more uncertain with a positive trend sentiment of 44% of significantly form a high of 57% a month ago. Quebec is the worst with only 46% positive sentiment dropping from 60% at the start of the election.
Other pollsters are saying Harper is coming back into potential majority government territory.
In B.C. the voters are shifting to the Liberals in the final stages and have the same 33% support they had at the 2006 election. The Conservatives and NDP are both 4% lower than last election.
The Greens are up 9% and it will be interesting if they vote strategically for Liberals to stop Harper given there is only a 2 point spread. Green votes for Liberals would make a big difference in B.C. outcomes.
In Ontario the Cons lead but are 10 points off their high and 1 point behind last election results. The Liberals are a full 6 points off the 2006 election results and all that support has gone to the Greens who are up 6. Again one has to wonder if the Ontario Greens will vote for local Liberals for strategic purposes.
Quebec’s story is the Bloc beating down the Conservatives down to the same levels as the unpopular Liberals. NDP and Green voters are the most likely to switch their votes, 28% and 32% respectively.
THE MOOD FOR A CHANGE OF GOVERNMENT HAS GROWN:
The mood for a change to a new government has increased significantly in the three battle ground provinces too. Since the election call B.C. voters who want a different government has jumped to 49% from 40%. Ontario is also in the mood for a change in government now at 54% up from 43% from when the election was called. In Quebec, the place where Harper really blew it, the mood for a change in government in Ottawa jumped to 63% from a mere 45% when the election was called.
These levels of people hunkering for a change do not bode well for Harper – unless he can position himself as the candidate of change in the next 4 days. So far his messaging has been just the opposite as he campaigns on he is the stable status quo guy who will Do Nothing to respond to the market meltdown. Layton and May are not in the game and Dion is struggling but the Liberal Team is making a difference.
I am not taking bets this election and don’t know anyone who is.
The crunch time for citizens is fast approaching as we reflect on who we will grant our consent to govern us. What are the dominant value drivers we will use to make this decision? Will it be the comprehensiveness of the party platforms, the character of the leaders or a major issue like health care, the environment or the economy? Will it be a feeling of anxiety over jobs and protecting savings or traditional voting habits? Will it be a strategic vote to block a poor option or bad outcome?
Trends indicate momentum and in the final four days those elements become all important as candidates and leaders try to get traction. Traction is needed so voters will take the time and actually show up and show their support at the ballot box.
CANADA IS NOT ON THE RIGHT TRACK:
Strategic Counsel has been tracking 45 tight battle ground seats in Quebec, Ontario and B.C. The sentiment of if Canada is on the right track has been trending down since Harper called his election. In B.C. it closes at 48% positive dropping significantly from a high of 57%. Ontario is now even more uncertain with a positive trend sentiment of 44% of significantly form a high of 57% a month ago. Quebec is the worst with only 46% positive sentiment dropping from 60% at the start of the election.
Other pollsters are saying Harper is coming back into potential majority government territory.
In B.C. the voters are shifting to the Liberals in the final stages and have the same 33% support they had at the 2006 election. The Conservatives and NDP are both 4% lower than last election.
The Greens are up 9% and it will be interesting if they vote strategically for Liberals to stop Harper given there is only a 2 point spread. Green votes for Liberals would make a big difference in B.C. outcomes.
In Ontario the Cons lead but are 10 points off their high and 1 point behind last election results. The Liberals are a full 6 points off the 2006 election results and all that support has gone to the Greens who are up 6. Again one has to wonder if the Ontario Greens will vote for local Liberals for strategic purposes.
Quebec’s story is the Bloc beating down the Conservatives down to the same levels as the unpopular Liberals. NDP and Green voters are the most likely to switch their votes, 28% and 32% respectively.
THE MOOD FOR A CHANGE OF GOVERNMENT HAS GROWN:
The mood for a change to a new government has increased significantly in the three battle ground provinces too. Since the election call B.C. voters who want a different government has jumped to 49% from 40%. Ontario is also in the mood for a change in government now at 54% up from 43% from when the election was called. In Quebec, the place where Harper really blew it, the mood for a change in government in Ottawa jumped to 63% from a mere 45% when the election was called.
These levels of people hunkering for a change do not bode well for Harper – unless he can position himself as the candidate of change in the next 4 days. So far his messaging has been just the opposite as he campaigns on he is the stable status quo guy who will Do Nothing to respond to the market meltdown. Layton and May are not in the game and Dion is struggling but the Liberal Team is making a difference.
I am not taking bets this election and don’t know anyone who is.
Pollsters Predict Harper is Back in Majority Territory.
The volatility in the Canadian election continues and there are races in some constituencies that are closer than anyone ever expected and impossible to call.
Strategic voting is the nagging question for soft Green and Dipper voters going into the weekend. Vote swapping is a new but growing phenomenon so citizens can "make their votes count" for the party they prefer.
If Harper is not threatening to win a majority the Green and Dipper vote firms up and stategic voting thought wane. If Harper is threatening to achieve a majority then the soft voters start thinking about strategic voting and vote swapping.
As of today, pollsters are telling us Harper is once again threatening a majority government...even without Quebec's suport he was conting on. The EKOS and Harris Decima rolling polls shows the Harper Conservatives have hit bottom and the trend is got an uptick yesterday.
Today EKOS seat projection says Harper is within MAJORITY territory once again with possibility of 152 seats. 155 seats are a majoirty. EKOS notes that “Seat projection models can be sensitive to small shifts in the regional distribution of support.” The go further and say “In sum, we (EKOS) think if anything this projection may somewhat understate Conservative strength.” Strategic voting therefore becomes a critical concern again going into the final weekend.
Harris Decima has the Conservatives up2 points to 34% and the Liberals and NDs dropping 1 point each leaving an 8 point Conservative lead. Harper and Dion are statistically tied in Ontario and Quebec meaning every vote counts for second place behind the Bloc.
The Liberals are the major second choice for Dippers but the Conservatives have seen a significant resurgence in NDP second soft choices since the debates. Harris Decima says the market turmoil will have significant impact on voter psychology over the weekend before Election Day. They say “The economy and the potential movements of the NDP and Green support are the most important factors to watch heading in the final weekend of campaigning.”
Elizabeth May is endorsing strategic voting to Stop Harper. She is quoted in today's Globe and Mail saying: "I just think Canadians need to take a long hard look at the potential here to get rid of the government of Stephen Harper and all the it represents." She is not saying vote strategically in those races that are not tight. But in those that are close then strategic voting to Stop Harper is well advised.
Like Don Martin, I am going into this weekend with no idea what the final election outcome will be. All scenarios are possible. It is very similar to how I felt going into the final weekend in the March Alberta election. The mood there was for change and the electorate who showed up still gave Ed Stelmach, the incumbent Progressive Conservative, an enormous majority government.
This weekend as Canadians gather around family Thanksgiving dinners they will be thinking twice before they vote once. The market turmoil and economic concerns will dominate. It is a 2 horse race between Harper and Dion's team. May and Layton are also-rans and at least she knows it.
Will they believe in Harper's indifference and Do Nothing approach is the best way to go? Do they think Dion's consultative and deliberative planning approach with the help of Paul Martin be a better way forward?
Strategic voting is the nagging question for soft Green and Dipper voters going into the weekend. Vote swapping is a new but growing phenomenon so citizens can "make their votes count" for the party they prefer.
If Harper is not threatening to win a majority the Green and Dipper vote firms up and stategic voting thought wane. If Harper is threatening to achieve a majority then the soft voters start thinking about strategic voting and vote swapping.
As of today, pollsters are telling us Harper is once again threatening a majority government...even without Quebec's suport he was conting on. The EKOS and Harris Decima rolling polls shows the Harper Conservatives have hit bottom and the trend is got an uptick yesterday.
Today EKOS seat projection says Harper is within MAJORITY territory once again with possibility of 152 seats. 155 seats are a majoirty. EKOS notes that “Seat projection models can be sensitive to small shifts in the regional distribution of support.” The go further and say “In sum, we (EKOS) think if anything this projection may somewhat understate Conservative strength.” Strategic voting therefore becomes a critical concern again going into the final weekend.
Harris Decima has the Conservatives up2 points to 34% and the Liberals and NDs dropping 1 point each leaving an 8 point Conservative lead. Harper and Dion are statistically tied in Ontario and Quebec meaning every vote counts for second place behind the Bloc.
The Liberals are the major second choice for Dippers but the Conservatives have seen a significant resurgence in NDP second soft choices since the debates. Harris Decima says the market turmoil will have significant impact on voter psychology over the weekend before Election Day. They say “The economy and the potential movements of the NDP and Green support are the most important factors to watch heading in the final weekend of campaigning.”
Elizabeth May is endorsing strategic voting to Stop Harper. She is quoted in today's Globe and Mail saying: "I just think Canadians need to take a long hard look at the potential here to get rid of the government of Stephen Harper and all the it represents." She is not saying vote strategically in those races that are not tight. But in those that are close then strategic voting to Stop Harper is well advised.
Like Don Martin, I am going into this weekend with no idea what the final election outcome will be. All scenarios are possible. It is very similar to how I felt going into the final weekend in the March Alberta election. The mood there was for change and the electorate who showed up still gave Ed Stelmach, the incumbent Progressive Conservative, an enormous majority government.
This weekend as Canadians gather around family Thanksgiving dinners they will be thinking twice before they vote once. The market turmoil and economic concerns will dominate. It is a 2 horse race between Harper and Dion's team. May and Layton are also-rans and at least she knows it.
Will they believe in Harper's indifference and Do Nothing approach is the best way to go? Do they think Dion's consultative and deliberative planning approach with the help of Paul Martin be a better way forward?
Thursday, October 09, 2008
Harper's Empathy Deficit
Doesn't this Globe and Mail political cartoon by Gable say everything you need to know about Harper's view of regular Canadians in time of crisis?
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